WHAT WE KNOW (updated as at: 9.41pm):
Canberra Liberals leader Jeremy Hanson, speaking to the party faithful tonight, has conceded defeat.
With 74.9 per cent of the first preference votes counted (212,115 votes of 283,162 enrolled voters), here's what we know so far:
- ACT Labor is now on 39.2 per cent, against the Canberra Liberals' 35.4 per cent.
- That result, if reflected in the final count, and following the distribution of second and third preferences, should secure the government at least 10 seats, with the Liberals on between eight and 10 seats, one to the Greens and between four and six in the balance, after a levelling off in the past half hour in the count.
- There's now a 0.3 per cent swing to the government, and a 3.5 per cent swing against the Liberals, although most swings are to minor parties.
- In the minor parties, The Greens are steady on 10.5 per cent of the total pre-poll first preference vote, despite a 0.3 per cent swing against them, and the Australian Sex Party is on 3.3 per cent.
On a seat by seat basis, we can say:
- ACT Labor has picked up enough votes for two quotas (eg: two seats) in all five electorates: Brindabella (2), Ginninderra (2.5), Kurrajong (2.4), Murrumbidgee (2.1) and Yerrabi (2.7).
- Canberra Liberals have picked up enough votes for two quotas in three electorates: Brindabella (2.4), Murrumbidgee (2.5) and Yerrabi (2.1), and are on 1.8 in Ginninderra and 1.7 in Kurrajong.
- The ACT Greens have 1.2 quota in Kurrajong and 0.6 in Ginninderra and 0.7 in Murrumbidgee.
- Party leaders: (ALP) Andrew Barr (Kurrajong) on 1.3 quotas, (LIB) Jeremy Hanson (Murrumbidgee) on 1.3 as well, (G) Shane Rattenbury (Kurrajong) on 0.9 of a quota.
Leading candidates in other electorates:
- Brindabella: (LIB) Andrew Wall on 0.7 of a quota and (LIB) Mark Parton on 0.6.
- Ginninderra: (ALP) Yvette Berry on 0.6 of a quota
- Yerrabi: (ALP) Meegan Fitzharris on 0.9 of a quota, (LIB) Alistair Coe on 0.8.
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW:
These are very early results:
- We don't know the results of votes cast today - only the first preference (Eg: the "number one" voters put on their ballot paper) in the pre-poll.
- We also don't know the preferences past the very first preferences of the pre-poll voters - a crucial uncertainty under the ACT's Hare-Clarke system.