The ACT government's best four ministers – including Green Shane Rattenbury – should shoulder a heavy burden for at least a year as inexperienced MLAs join the executive, veteran political academic John Warhurst said.
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Labor minister Chris Bourke's defeat means there will be at least two first term MLAs in the next cabinet, assuming the Greens leader is retained and Joy Burch is not given a second ministerial life.
Dr Warhurst, from the Australian National University, said the balance of the new Assembly suggests a third woman should be added to what was a seven-strong cabinet, but the key portfolios should be held by the "top four" of Chief Minister Andrew Barr, his deputy Yvette Berry, Meegan Fitzharris and Mr Rattenbury.
This included the attorney-general position, one of four portfolios left by retired deputy leader Simon Corbell.
"Even with strong advisers and strong directorates, there's the whole question of how it looks to the community," he said.
"Andrew Barr would be wanting to reassure the community he has the strongest performers in the most important portfolios, even if that meant overloading the portfolios for 12-18 months."
The best and most likely outcome for the government would be for Mr Rattenbury – who holds four portfolios, including education - to remain in cabinet, potentially with a heavier workload, he said.
Ms Berry's responsibilities, currently including housing, community services, multicultural and youth affairs and sport, should be added to.
"As deputy, I think she would want to take on more and be expected to take on more," he said. "Not only because of her position but with the factional position in the Labor party, she would rightfully be having a stronger say in what portfolios she ended up with."
The cabinet was expanded from six to seven in the January reshuffle and could be expanded to eight this month, however Mr Barr was giving no hints to its size on Saturday.
"I will be making decisions on the makeup of the Ministry in the coming days," he said. "It's great to have so many strong candidates in the Labor caucus when allocating ministerial portfolios."
Dr Warhurst said promoting Ms Fitzharris, the assistant health minister since earlier this year, to the key health portfolio would be an obvious move, although some "brave swap" to other positions could not be ruled out.
The strongest vote-puller in the ACT after Mr Barr and Jeremy Hanson despite being in the Assembly for only 21 months, Ms Fitzharris could be expected to be given a heavier load than her current three portfolios, but keep her transport and city services role as the light rail rolls out this term.
Dr Warhurst said Mick Gentleman, whose four portfolios include planning and workplace safety, would be a good fit as new Police and Emergency Services Minister.
He said he could not pick which of the new MLAs should join the cabinet. Legal advocates – including a magistrate – have criticised the extended absence of an attorney-general with a legal background, but he said new MLA Gordon Ramsay's time as a corporate lawyer in Sydney two decades ago was not enough to warrant the immediate high-profile promotion.
Mr Rattenbury has a law degree, but Chris Steel, 30, whose expertise is early childhood education, is the only other Labor MLA with the qualification, graduating in 2014.
Dr Warhurst said he did not expect former minister Joy Burch, who resigned as police minister amid criticism late last year and withdrew from her remaining positions in January, to return to the frontbench.
"My hunch is that, having had a big election victory and looking to the future, and with the Liberals in disarray and with a lot of new people too, I think they might be inclined to go for some new blood," he said.
