A leading US academic and Pentagon adviser believes Australia can play a greater role in campaigning for a political solution to stem a protracted and bloody conflict in Iraq and Syria.
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University of Chicago professor Robert Pape will tell an Australian National University audience on Monday that ISIS has fundamentally changed its strategy in recent months.
Mr Pape, who leads a team of 40 analysts charting suicide bombings, said a loss of territory in Iraq and Syria had prompted ISIS to focus on sophisticated group attacks.
"ISIS has fundamentally changed its targeting strategy and this is a very important thing for policy makers and security forces to understand," he said
"It started with an attack in Ankara on October 10 when two suicide bombers killed 100 people in a complex attack with multiple end points to maximise the number of people killed.
"Then of course there was Paris, when nine attackers killed 130 people with multiple end points over an hour and a half in a highly co-ordinated attack that would have quite likely involved dry runs"
Mr Pape, who spoke at a Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade sponsored event in Melbourne last week, said the number of lone suicide bombings linked to ISIS had dropped dramatically since October.
"As the territory controlled by ISIS continues to shrink they are lashing out to try and change a losing game," he said.
"They lost 20-25 per cent of their territory in 2015 and that territory began to dramatically decline by July. In the last few months they have continued to lose ground and control in the city of Ramadi."
In late December Iraq's armed forces stormed the centre of Ramadi, a city ISIS captured from Iraqi forces in May. According to US officials, the group has lost about 40 per cent of once held territory in Iraq but only five per cent in Syria.
Mr Pape said the change in tactics should be a concern for international security forces that are tasked with tracking communication between accomplices, rather than lone wolves.
"It only takes a bit of a slip up to disrupt these attacks as they co-ordinated between members and you don't need to pull up all members to stop the attack," he said.
Mr Pape said Australian security and intelligences services should continue to be concerned about the possibility of attacks, although an emphasis should be political leadership should be prioritised.
"Australia is an awkward position as you have just enough personnel in Iraq be on the radar, but not enough to change any military outcome in the region," he said.
"Australian involvement could however be very important in lending a voice for the need to have a real political outcome that provides greater autonomy for the Sunni communities in Iraq and Syria.
Last week, US secretary of state John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced a push for a ceasefire in Syria, although talks have been delayed amid ongoing conflict.
"The big issue is in Syria and Iraq is political grievances that involve a lack of access to national resources and a real lack of political representation that is meaningful."