Canberra's largest provider of paid childcare has claimed the city has an oversupply of more than 1300 long day care places.
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The figures come as the ACT government revealed there had been an increase of more than 1100 long day care places in the last year.
Communities@Work deputy chief executive Lee Maiden said the oversupply found in research for the not-for-profit organisation – while at first glance a win for parents – created risks for the childcare sector.
"It has always been a factor in the sector that recruitment is difficult, and the more centres you build the less educators there are to work in those centres," she said.
"As new centres open, utilisation is low in a lot of services throughout Australia and the ACT, and what that creates is the risk of pushing up the cost of childcare because you have vacancies and income is reduced."
An Education and Training Directorate spokeswoman said there were 134 long day care services offering 9833 places at the end of September, an extra 13 services and 1100 places since October 2014.
The Communities@Work research relies on the 2011 census demographics for children aged zero to five in each suburb, then uses a demand formula and relates this to the number of places in each suburb at the beginning of this year. While it finds suburbs including Gungahlin and Bruce have a large oversupply, it acknowledges many parents will look outside the immediate area they live for childcare.
The research indicated Ngunnawal, Kambah and Dunlop were among suburbs with a major undersupply of long day care places.
The number of children regularly attending childcare in the ACT has risen by 7.3 per cent since 2011, based on Australian Bureau of Statistics numbers released in April. While this was the nation's greatest rise, an equivalent lift in long day care demand would still fail to match the increase in places.
Private provider Guardian was one of many companies who had opened centres within the last year, with its modern 65-place childcare facility in Gungahlin operating since September. The company will also open a centre in Forrest on November 30 and one in Bruce in February, for an extra 280 combined places when at full capacity.
Guardian ACT operations manager Sarah Wilcox said the centres would naturally transition up to full capacity over several months. The company deliberately took its time with recruitment to ensure it found staff with passion who fitted the company's culture and wanted a long-term career in the sector, she said.
The ACT government has offered 30 scholarships a year for the relevant childcare Certificate III, and 25 a year for an early childhood degree.
Ms Maiden said Communities@Work offered about 1600 early education and care places in 2014-15, similar to a year ago.
Canberran Chris Hansen, who launched his recruitment platform LikeAJob.com.au in January, said he had about 30 childcare positions available, with strong demand for those with the relevant diploma or certificate III. Seek figures showed about 90 childcare positions, including management roles, available in Canberra this week.
Education Minister Joy Burch said she was proud strong investments across multiple budgets had delivered a significant increase in childcare places, as was promised in 2012 to address "a historic shortage".
Federal changes from January 1 next year were expected to have minimal impact for staff demand in the ACT, with the only relevant shift an increase in the educator to child ratio for pre-schools, from 2:25 to 1:11.
