Pessimism about building commencements in Canberra has continued and building jobs are tipped to be lost as negative national forecasts were released in a new housing outlook this week.
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The Housing Industry Association has predicted a 12 per cent drop in construction starts in 2015-16 and 9 per cent the following year for the city.
The association's National Outlook shows conditions in the ACT appear worse than the Australian average, where new dwelling commencements were slated to fall by 7 per cent this financial year, then 8.6 per cent in 2016-17.
And while Canberra's renovation market is tipped to have a strong 12 months, HIA ACT and southern NSW executive director Neil Evans said the overall housing trend was down.
"We're just going through a dip in the ACT, like other sectors – retail, manufacturing – it all gets affected," he said.
"It's not an ACT-specific issue. We've seen Perth, South Australia and Tasmania also retracting."
The depressing forecasts came after a 9.4 per cent drop in building commencements for the ACT last calendar year, off strong numbers – particularly for units – in 2013. In contrast, national home commencements reached record levels in the year to March.
Mr Evans said ACT government decisions would provide some relief for the region's industry.
"We are going to be building some replacement blocks on the Fluffy blocks which will be a bonus, and the current government with their community housing recycling project will create a little bit of work for us too, which is great," he said.
Those unable to buy a first home have at least been spared heavy rents, with separate data showing Canberra rents across all dwellings were down an average 0.4 per cent in July, in line with the national capital city average.
Canberra home rentals were up 0.6 per cent in the year to July, while units fell 0.8 per cent, Core Logic RP Data figures showed.
The HIA outlook said renovation spending would rise by 4.6 per cent in the ACT this financial year, consistent with national forecasts, after negligible growth of 0.4 per cent in 2014-15.
Mr Evans said demand for new homes in the ACT was greater than commencement numbers reflected, suggesting the industry would benefit by following the recent dominant growth states – New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland – in having more land available for purchase on-site, rather than off a map.
