Chief Minister Andrew Barr has warned the ACT stands to lose $130 million in GST revenue as soon as next week as the Abbott government considers a recommendation from the Commonwealth Grants Commission.
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A meeting of state and territory treasurers at Parliament House ended Thursday without an agreement on a new formula for distribution, but negotiations will continue next week as Prime Minister Tony Abbott chairs a Council of Australian Governments meeting.
Treasurer Joe Hockey will have the final say.
The commission's report recommended that territory's GST relativity decrease to shave $129.3 million in the 2015-16 financial year, a hit Mr Barr said would be absorbed on the ACT budget bottom line.
He said New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory would get an increase in GST payments, while the ACT would lose out due to $145 million in infrastructure payments and lower than national average population growth.
Mr Barr said the Western Australian government's lobbying for an increased GST haul or one-off payments came after that state failed to implement effective economic reform and chose not to save "for a rainy day" during the resources boom.
"Our GST relativity was always going to come down this time. It is within the ball park it has been in the last 15 years," he said.
"We knew it was going to be a tense meeting, that there were going to be some very passionate views put about fundamentals of the federation and how GST revenue is distributed. Obviously there is a great deal of disappointment from the ACT's perspective in terms of what the Grants Commission has come up with."
Mr Barr called on the federal government to resist "political tinkering" with payments and Mr Hockey has promised to continue to consult the states before making a determination.
"There was good news from the federal Treasurer in relation to public sector jobs in the ACT," Mr Barr said. "I sought an assurance that the worst was over, that there would be no more significant public sector job cuts.
"The Treasurer gave me some assurance that they had achieved the policy outcomes that they had sought in previous budgets, so I go into this next federal budget with a bit more confidence now that the worst is behind us."
Opposition treasury spokesman Brendan Smyth said it was incumbent on the Chief Minister to secure the best deal for the ACT.
"It would appear he has failed to convince the Grants Commission and he needs to explain why. It's a shame his expectations have become a self-fulfilling prophecy," Mr Smyth said.
Thursday's meeting also discussed national partnership agreements on homelessness and early childhood education, as well as the future of the government's asset recycling scheme.
Mr Barr said the ACT could make a second application for an asset sales bonus payment, after agreeing to sell nearly $400 million in public housing and government buildings to attract an incentive payment of about $60 million.
Any specific proposals, including the planned sale of the ACT's street lights, would be decided at a later date, Mr Barr said.