Prominent Canberra economist David Hughes has rejected suggestions the Gungahlin tram will create 3500 jobs, insisting the government's own figures show nowhere that many.
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Once operating, the tram would create 75 jobs, 55 direct and 20 indirect, according to the government's own jobs analysis by Ernst and Young.
For construction, Ernst and Young predicted 3560 "gross footprint" jobs, but only 1930 "net achievable" jobs, direct and indirect.
But Mr Hughes questioned even the 1930 figure, which he said didn't take account of jobs that were lost as money was diverted to the tram from other areas, or as a result of higher taxes and charges to pay for the tram.
Unions ACT is advertising in support of the project, after polling which asked Canberrans whether they would support light rail "if it created 3500 jobs".
Capital Metro's draft environmental impact statement points to up to 26,000 extra jobs in the corridor as a result of the tram, rising to 50,000 with flow-on effects.
But Mr Hughes, a former manager of major project analysis for ACT Treasury, said the 26,000 and 50,000 figures were nonsense.
"They're big numbers, but the report they're relying on makes it clear that they're not new jobs for the territory. If we accept the EY report as telling us something, it tells us that in the case of the light rail corridor, the number is not 50,000, it's 5000."
Ernst and Young estimates an "economic footprint" of 50,000 jobs by 2049, based on delivering enough floor space to accommodate 26,000 jobs, plus flow-on effects. But it warns most are not new.
"The majority of the jobs accommodated along the corridor will not be new to ACT. Rather they will locate in the corridor instead of somewhere else in the territory," it says, assuming instead that 10 per cent, or 5000, will be new.
It warns against blanket claims based on the jobs figures, saying it is better to quote net "achievable" jobs (1930 on construction) than the "gross footprint" jobs (3560) because the net figures take into account the displacement of jobs from elsewhere in the ACT economy.
Gross footprint figures were "technically acceptable" when discussing economic impact, but it was important to use the correct language, including "supports" jobs rather than "creates" new jobs, EY said.
Capital Metro Minister Simon Corbell stuck by the 3500 figure.
"No matter how you say it, this project will generate 3500 jobs that wouldn't exist if not for light rail," he said. EY "clearly states that the gross footprint is the number of jobs that will arise in the ACT as a consequence of the construction and operation", he said.
"The report also states that the gross footprint is the number typically used by major projects to present job creation." The "net achievable" figure didn't take account of the fact that without the tram people "would not have any more work to transition to".
"One of the great advantages of light rail is that people want to live near it and businesses want to be close to it," he said. "As Canberra grows and people decide where they are going to locate, the light rail corridor will be attractive to them, generating more jobs along the corridor."
Mr Hughes said in the end, any project must stack up on its own terms, not for the jobs it creates.
"This is transport project and if it doesn't stack up as a transport project then don't do it," he said.
Mr Hughes analyses the jobs figures in today's opinion pages.
