Too few Canberrans live within walking distance of proposed light rail passenger stops between the city and Gungahlin to make tram services viable, according to the Liberal opposition.
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Analysis of 2011 census data shows 7 per cent of Canberra’s population, or 27,084 residents, live within 800 metres of the tram-stop locations being considered by the agency delivering stage one of the network.
Currently 3 per cent, or 12,635 residents, live within 400 metres of the 15 proposed stops.
Transport planners commonly use 400 metres as the distance passengers are prepared to walk to a tram or bus stop, with the figure doubled to 800 metres for trains.
The analysis does not take into account population increases by the time the line would be operational in 2019 or 2020, nor does it consider passengers who would ride or drive to tram stops or feed into the network from nearby bus services.
Based on 2011 figures, the analysis found 21 per cent of Gungahlin residents lived within 800 metres of the line, while 6 per cent were within 400 metres.
The Capital Metro agency is seeking community feedback to determine the locations of a total of 13 passenger stops along Northbourne Avenue, the Federal Highway and Flemington Road.
Opposition transport spokesman Alistair Coe said the analysis showed the greatest number of potential passengers lived within 800 metres of stops at Macarthur Avenue, Elouera Street and the city terminus at Alinga Street.
Currently 2628 live within 800 metres of the Gungahlin terminus at Hibberson Street, while 567 are within 400 metres.
The government is considering increasing public housing stock on the Gungahlin fringe and expects higher density in the Northbourne Avenue corridor and around Exhibition Park as a result of the $614 million tram line.
The proposed Exhibition Park stop currently has the fewest number of potential passengers, with 300 within the expected walking distance.
Stops being considered at Owen Flats, Mapleton Avenue and Manning Clark Crescent each have more than 2000 people living within 800 metres.
Mr Coe said private investors were unlikely to consider the line viable.
''What it demonstrates pretty clear is what the opposition has been saying for a long time,'' he said. ''Very few people are served by light rail under what they’ve proposed.
''You do wonder whether the patronage is ever going to be at a viable level, with so few people living within walking distance.''
In April, Mr Coe said construction of the light rail line would stop if the Liberals won the 2016 election.
''ACTION work off 400 metres for their route planning, and some say people will walk double that distance for a tram,'' Mr Coe said on Wednesday.
''Even in the catchment area of the inner north, perhaps less than half are within walking distance of a stop, so I fail to see how this route can be a success and how it's actually going to attract genuine private sector investment.''
Acknowledging that the numbers could increase through population growth and the potential for passengers to ride or drive to tram stops, Mr Coe called on the government to release its full business case.
''To date, the government has refused to say how many people live in the catchment corridor, and they’ve refused to say how many people live within walking distance.''
Mr Coe said travel times to the city by tram would not be fast enough to draw passengers away from existing ACTION bus services.
Capital Metro Minister Simon Corbell said the analysis amounted to "guesswork".
"Capital Metro’s projections indicate that population in the City to Gungahlin corridor will grow from 43,900 in 2012 to 61,400 in 2031 while the number of jobs in the corridor will grow from 59,800 in 2012 to 73,000 in 2031.
"The figures provided by the Canberra Liberals fail to take account of this significant growth," Mr Corbell said.