Territory business confidence and retail spending figures can bounce around from month to month and sometimes contradict each other.
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Latest figures showed a 12-point drop in confidence in the quarter, yet six straight months of ACT spending growth based on Bureau of Statistics numbers.
Collated survey results can also be confusing, with Chief Minister Andrew Barr at a loss to explain recently why the government's small business policies had an approval rating of -10 in November, after a +32 rating three months before.
But when it comes to their own shopfront, small business owners know when the consumers are parting with their dollars and often what is holding them back.
January 30 marked the end of an era for motoring enthusiast Andrew Garrard, who shut his shop after 32 years.
The 57 year old said a mix of factors had forced his hand in ending the retail arm of the business.
Major hikes in asking rentals and a lack of confidence were among the biggest pressures.
Mr Garrard said a proposed rental of $3500 a month -- up $1000, or 40 per cent -- and a lease of at least five years were not tenable for his Dickson auto parts and accessories store.
"[It] was too long for this area, because I think Dickson is going to have a lot of problems with redevelopment – a problem with car parks and people not wanting want to come as much to Dickson," he said.
"Profits had been dropping off for a few years - I guess the landlord talking to me to sign things up was a good kick along to get out of the place."
Canberra Auto Parts and Accessories had branched into after-market panels and lights in recent years, compensating in part for lower sales of mechanical parts, which fewer motorists were interested in repairing.
A 5 per cent decline in profits last year had not been helped by the federal public service cuts.
"It effects us a lot, whatever the public service think -- if they're worried about their jobs they'll zip up their pockets," Mr Garrard said.
He will continue to service his panel beating and workshop customers from home.
The business had already laid off one full-time staff member and a part-time bookkeeper.
Across the lake, tougher economic times have not stopped most people's desire for meat and bread, as the Griffith Butchery and Bakery's strong 2014 sales showed.
Owner and founder Richard Odell said sales for the three days before Christmas were up 18 per cent from the year before and results were better than expected for the last six months of the year.
"It makes it good for my confidence, for my part of the industry, and there are many other industries that are not in favour," he said.
"We're constantly looking at what we're doing for tomorrow."
The butcher said a major 36-week redevelopment of his backroom facilities this year would place the business in "good stead" for the long term but meant the company would tread water until the renovations were completed.
He said government delays in approving his building project application – lodged in September and now expected to be ticked off in February – were the biggest frustration.
"It would be helpful if the ACT government was more small business minded, they haven't helped one bit," Mr Odell said.
"We don't need a monetary incentive, but taking away some of the red tape – bureaucracy – cutting it back so its easier for businesses to operate would be a big help."
For fellow small business owner Barry Taylor, its federal policies which are front of mind.
"This is worse than when Howard took over in 1996," he said.
Sales at his Tuggeranong and Queanbeyan homeware and gifts stores have plummeted by 30 per cent since Julia Gillard called the last federal election two years ago.
"There is no sign of a resurgence," Mr Taylor said.
Sales dropped by a similar amount from 1996 but had recovered within two years.
The retailer said customers liked his stock but prolonged uncertainty about federal job cuts stopped them putting their hand in their wallet.
"I've had people come through the shop and say when they're down they have a walk through but they're not buying," Mr Taylor said.
"I talk to everyone I can and the customers who come in, and I think for 95 per cent of people I talk to who are in business, their confidence is down, and their business."
Declining sales meant staff hours had been halved across both the La Cucina store and Gifts and Gadgets across the border.
Mr Taylor said encouraging the tourist dollar should be the priority to stimulate the private economy.
"I've always said that when there's a big blockbuster at the National Gallery, that brings money into town," he said.
"I'd agree [with the Canberra Business Chamber] that the Convention Centre is the number one priority."