Firefighter Scott Farquhar was on the front lines in 2003 when the sky above Canberra turned black and a 39-kilometre firefront bore down on the ACT.
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On January 18, 2003 catastrophic bushfires swept into the ACT destroying 500 homes and killing four Canberrans. Twelve years later climate scientists are warning it could all happen again.
![ACT Parks and Conservation fire operations manager Scott Farquhar and senior manager Neil Cooper. Photo: Matt Bedford ACT Parks and Conservation fire operations manager Scott Farquhar and senior manager Neil Cooper. Photo: Matt Bedford](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/silverstone-ct-migration/1a638305-6998-4f3e-8c84-500b6766bd05/r0_0_2000_1333_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Australian National University School of Environment associate professor Geoff Cary said average temperatures in the ACT region could warm by at least two degrees by 2070, significantly increasing the risk of serious bushfires such as occurred in 2003.
"Our computer modelling work would indicate that you would expect perhaps a 50 per cent increase in area burnt by 2050, with a much shorter period between major fire events," he said.
Professor Cary said the number of days with extreme or catastrophic fire danger will more than double by 2050 due to climate change. "It's reasonable to expect there will be an increase in catastrophic fire events into the future," he said.
Mr Farquhar, now ACT Parks and Conservation fire operations manager, said even firefighters with very short careers had seen an increase in extreme fire behaviour. "It should be a once in a lifetime event but if you've been around for not even 15 years you've been through three record-breaking events," he said.
"Obviously Canberra in 2003, the Victorian fires in 2009 and the Blue Mountains [in NSW] a couple of years ago; these are all events that are off the scale."
It isn't just the heat which is a problem - a 2014 report by the ACT government and the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage found climate change will affect Canberra's annual rainfall, decreasing important spring showers by more than 20 per cent.
Climate Council of Australia councillor Will Steffan said without regular rainfall during the spring months, summers in Australia's bush capital will grow more hazardous.
"There'll be a tendency for fuel loads to be drier so they'll be more prone to burning," he said. "It's a secondary effect but it's more important when it comes to fire danger."
Professor Steffan said with warmer temperatures and drier bushland due to climate change, Canberra faced a special danger, particularly given the capital's large inner-city nature reserves.
"When you look at Ainslie, Red Hill, the inner north and Belconnen, which sit adjacent to these big nature reserves, you could argue that central Canberra is also at risk if those big reserves go up, which is different to other capital cities," he said.
"As the climate shifts that same lovely bushland is going to create some fairly serious risk for fires. It's sort of a double-edged sword."
A Risk Frontiers report after the 2003 Canberra bushfires found at least 10 per cent of ACT properties were within 700 metres of bushland.
In the 2003 bushfires, Duffy resident Alan Evans was one of the Canberrans to lose his house, which faced directly onto the vast Stromlo Forest pine plantations.
He said although he rebuilt on the same block, he believed climate change and local fire management practices made a repeat of the 2003 bushfires likely.
"You just have to look at the data and in the period I'm looking - 20 to 30 years, up to 50 years - we're not likely to see a decline in average temperatures," he said.
But Mr Evans said while he was concerned at the potential for another fire, he wouldn't be leaving. "It may affect my daughters' thinking when they inherit... [but] we love it and they'll carry me out of here in a pine box," he said
Professor Steffan said there was no doubt climate change had made fires in Australia more intense over the past decade. "One of the most powerful quotes I heard was from a firefighter out in Perth, which is, 'You won't find a sceptic at the end of a fire hose'," he said
Local firefighters are optimistic though - ACT Rural Fire Service chief officer Andrew Stark said Canberra's firefighters were factoring climate change into their decisions on how best to protect the city.
"[It's] part and parcel of what we prepare for each summer... knowing there's a risk of a really catastrophic day occurring," he said.
"What climate change does will probably just be more of those days."
Mr Farquhar said every year the Parks and Conservation service burnt about 8300 hectares in Canberra, as part of prescribed burns, to remove ground fuel and better protect the territory for fires.
"Whenever we go into an El Nino event it becomes challenging [though] and if an El Nino event is an indicator of what we can expect under climate change then it certainly is going to be more difficult," he said.
"You have to be adaptable to what's around you and ready to go at pretty short notice and that's where we find ourselves at the moment. The window is open for burning and we're out there. We'll literally keep going until we can't."
Parks and Conservation senior manager Neil Cooper said if there were a repeat of the 2003 Canberra bushfires, the ACT would be much better placed to handle it.
"We're developing methods, we're playing around with drones, we're using new technology to provide in-field moisture measurements every day," he said. "We're trying to keep ahead of the game."