Most are firmly enough in the heartland of their electorates that the new boundaries won't affect them greatly. But some, including the Liberals' Alistair Coe, are on the edge, with no certainty which electorate they will end up living in. And others, including Jeremy Hanson (Liberal) and Simon Corbell (Labor), will find themselves representing new, much more distinct electorates.

The commission is carving up Canberra into five electorates instead of the current three in a change that will see 25 politicians elected, instead of 17.

Five will come from each electorate. With the major parties expecting to get two seats apiece in each electorate, who takes government will come down to the fifth seat in each.

Mr Coe, who lives in Giralang, is in the eye of the storm. Giralang looks likely to shift from the Belconnen-based electorate of Ginninderra to the new Gungahlin electorate – which will need to take in some of the Belconnen edge and perhaps some of the inner north to make up the numbers.

Mr Coe leads the Liberal opposition to the tram scheme. Given the tram's potential to solve travel frustration in Gungahlin, the Liberals will be weighing up whether he should stand in Gungahlin or is of more use in Belconnen, where the fifth seat could make or break Labor's campaign to keep government. The Liberals outpolled Labor across Gungahlin at the last election, but the Belconnen suburbs are some of Labor's strongest.

Mr Coe insisted that opposition to the tram was widespread, and not only in areas like Tuggeranong, and he would be comfortable making the argument against the tram in Gungahlin. In Amaroo, for example, people would be disadvantaged by being forced to catch a bus and tram instead of a single bus ride to the city.

Mr Coe said the decision on where to stand would be his, but for the moment he remained the member for Ginninderra.

"There's no doubt that we are deep in thought about where our eight incumbents are going to be running," he said, pointing also to Molonglo, the central electorate likely to be carved up into three.

The Liberals' Giulia Jones and Mr Hanson, now in Molonglo, are likely to find themselves in the new Woden-Weston electorate, leaving Steve Doszpot as the only Liberal in the central electorate, assuming Yarralumla remains.

Mr Coe wants the Electoral Commission to choose new names for all five electorates so politicians in new electorates aren't seen as abandoning the old.

But he said that "at the end of the day you can over strategise. It's going to come down to how hard members work over four years."

Chief Minister Andrew Barr lives in Dickson, and is not expecting change to his electorate. "It's pretty hard to see a set of boundaries that doesn't have it in the central area," he said. "It would be quite a surprise to me if that were to occur".

He didn't expect a big impact on the Labor team, with the carve up of Molonglo leaving Labor politicians in logical suburbs for the new electorates. Newcomer Meegan Fitzharris was likely to stand in Gungahlin, where she lives, and similarly with Mr Corbell in Woden-Weston. The result was a sitting Labor member already living in each of the five new electorates.

"Redistributions always have their moments for parties. There's no doubting that," he said. "But in this case, I suspect it will be fairly benign in terms of where people will run. There won't be any great rivalry or challenges."

Mr Hanson, like Mr Corbell, lives in Weston, which will be carved off to form its own electorate. He said the break-up of Molonglo, which had at least six discrete areas, into smaller electorates was a positive, and supported by local communities.

"Molonglo is a difficult and challenging electorate to represent because it has so many disparate communities and it's so large," he said. "To represent everyone from the northern tip of Gungahlin to the western end of Weston Creek and everything in between is challenging."

But no decisions had been made about where he would stand.

In the south, Labor's Joy Burch and Mick Gentleman, and the Liberals' Nicole Lawder, Brendan Smyth and Andrew Wall are all tucked sufficiently far into Tuggeranong to remain there in the redistribution.