The author of economic modelling at the centre of the Canberra Liberals' election campaign on household rates says his work is being misrepresented by the party.
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The opposition has staked its bid for power in Saturday's territory election on the claim that Labor and the Greens were planning to ''triple'' the annual rates bill for Canberra householders. But a University of Canberra economist says that his modelling is being misused by the Liberals in their election campaign.
Liberals leader Zed Seselja and his Treasury spokesman, Brendan Smyth, say a table from page 148 of the tax review done by former treasurer Ted Quinlan ''clearly shows'' that average rates bills in 10 years would be triple what they are today. Writing in an opinion piece for today's The Canberra Times, Ben Phillips says the table the Liberals say ''proves'' that rates would triple under a re-elected Labor government does not confirm the party's central campaign message because the table is not government policy.
The Canberra Liberals yesterday continued to insist that rates would triple under the government's tax reform plans and said Mr Phillips' piece stated that rates would still have to rise ''heavily'' to replace stamp duty.
Ben Phillips is a principal research fellow at NATSEM, the University of Canberra economic modelling outfit which worked with Ted Quinlan and Treasury on the review.
Mr Phillips writes that the table, which he designed and which the Liberals have sent to every Canberra household, does not represent the government's tax reforms and is just one of several scenarios NATSEM considered in its ''complete and objective'' analysis of reforming the ACT taxation system. ''The table does not represent new policy,'' he says.
''The actual policy that the government introduced in its 2012-13 budget removes conveyance duties over a 20-year period and applies a new rates schedule with progressively higher marginal rates applicable for higher-valued properties.''
Mr Phillips said that under the new system rates would actually fall for lower-value property owners, while higher-value property owners would pay higher rates.
Phased in slowly, with rebates for low-income earners, the new system would be ''fairer, more equitable and more efficient''.
Professor Ian McAuley, an economist and public policy expert also working at the University of Canberra, has done a separate analysis of the Liberals' claims. He says the taxation reforms are more complex than the party is claiming, and that ACT budget papers do not show anything close to a tripling of rates in the next four years.
Professor McAuley said budget tables showed government revenue from commercial and household rates combined would increase by 64 per cent in the period from 2011-12 to 2015-16.
''It should be noted that much of this increase has already occurred in this [2012-13] financial year,'' Professor McAuley said.
''People have received their rates notices, and will already have either paid them or made instalment payments. That is why the claims of a high rise are belated; they would have had more credibility had politicians made them before rates notices were sent out.''
Professor McAuley said the budget tables showed rates revenue would increase by just 20 per cent in the period from the present 2012-13 financial year until 2015-16, while conveyance duty would fall. The overall increase for household rates would be even smaller once revenue from commercial rates was excluded.
Government papers, as previously reported by The Canberra Times, show that the projected increase in residential rates revenue is less than 10 per cent in the first year of the reforms and is less than 30 per cent in the four years from 2011-12 to 2015-16.
The Canberra Liberals were asked to respond to the suggestion that they had misrepresented the Quinlan table.
Mr Seselja said: ''Mr Phillips has confirmed what the government is denying, that rates will have to 'rise heavily' to pay for tax cuts.
''Not only does the table in question show rates tripling, the pure maths of replacing $350 million from approximately 140,000 households does also.
''It is not up to Mr Phillips to say when that replacement of revenue will be achieved.
''The only way to pay for the government's announced cuts is for rates to triple in today's dollars, something which Mr Phillips has not denied.''