Live blog: History is bunk ...

Date: September 6, 2012

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High stakes in first week of footy finals

From the stands of the hallowed MCG, Rohan Connolly lays down his tips for the first week of footy finals.

That's it for today everyone, thanks for all the questions and comments, this is always a great weekend of the season, four critical finals in one hit, there's bound to be at least one or two classics in there, I reckon, and at least one result we weren't counting on. Enjoy it all, and we'll see you back here at 12pm next Thursday.

HISTORY is bunk. So said Henry Ford, founder of the company which has been Geelong Football Club's major sponsor for decades now. It's a nice link. Because that's just the attitude the Cats should be taking into this year's finals series.

REAL FOOTY LIVE: Expert analysis about the finals line-ups for week one of the 2012 finals series. Live video from 7pm tonight.

Indeed, Ford's thoughts could make a handy slogan for Geelong these next few weeks. ''We want to live in the present,'' he added, ''and the only history that is worth a tinker's damn is the history that we make today.''

And Geelong is very capable of doing so. We've never had a side as well-qualified to turn football history on its head from the bottom half of the eight as these Cats.

Sure, the figures are daunting. No side has won from beyond fourth since the revamp of the final eight in 2000. Some 46 of 48 preliminary finalists since then haven't finished the regular season any lower than fourth. And Adelaide, in 1997, is the only team in history to win four finals to land a premiership.

But none of the top four over the past decade have had a shadow this large looming over their shoulder - nor had as much September know-how with which to deal.

Do you agree? Are the Cats capable of snatching the premiership after four straight victories in September? Join a live blog with Rohan Connolly from midday Thursday.

38 comments

Rohan, I agree, but lets keep it QUIET!! The Cats are getting under the radar just as they did last year! They still have the hunger, in fact even more so as they would want to do it for Scarllo, their most respected player. What a great way to see him finish his career with yet another flag. If you add to the mix - Vardy back fresh, Varcoe to bring fresh legs to the MCG within weeks and Stevie J. will not suffer from a weeks rest at this time of the year. It will take a huge effort, but it would mark this team as the greatest ever in the history of the game.
And remember Jeff Kennett's Hawks boys who have the Ticker to beat the Cats in those close games - it's been nine straight since he said that - bring it on!!
Go Cats!!

Commenter

Ozziebrian

Location

Geelong

Date and time

September 06, 2012, 8:33AM
- Hi Ozzie, Don't know about under the radar after last week's win, was pretty hard to ignore! Agree though that if they did get up would be hard to argue with them being the greatest ever. Was struck by how every senior player last week played about as well as they could, very significant lift in performance for Scarlett in particular. Think Vardy can make real difference, perhaps still Varcoe, though he won't play again this week. And yes, for Jeff, the karma's been quite overwhelming!
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  September 06, 2012, 12:07PM
I think the Cats do have a chance - great team with loads of finals experience. When I predict how the finals will play out, it doesn't look like the match-ups will be impossibly hard, apart from a PL encounter with the Hawks.
- Cats to beat Freo: Not by as much as people think.
- Cats to beat a tired looking Sydney in Sydney. Might also be close given home-ground advantage.
- Cats vs. Hawks. This is the tough one. Sure, Cats have the wood, etc. etc. I think they have been very lucky in some of those close encounters. I do think they have a chance against the Hawks, but it will require luck.
- Cats vs. Whoever in GF. Having beaten Hawks, they are a 50/ 50 proposition for winning the GF, in my opinion. They'll be tired by then, having slugged it out against brutal opposition. The Hawks (and to a lesser extent the other teams) will have served the Cats up on a silver platter for the other grand finalist.
The grand final should really be between the Hawks and Cats, based on current form.

Commenter

Hawkery

Location

Date and time

September 06, 2012, 8:45AM
- Hi Hawkery, Your scenario seems sound enough to me, though in a Swans match-up not sure home ground advantage would count for nearly as much given it would be at ANZ, where Cats have won the last three clashes. And do think you're right about prelim. final being potentially a de facto grand final, has happened plenty of times in past, too, but in different circumstances, one of two hot favourites stumbling early and ending up on same side of the draw.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  September 06, 2012, 12:12PM
Hi Rohan just wondering what are your thoughts on Collingwood and do you think they can win another flag and can they challenge Hawthorn this weekend.If they lose and they probably will can they still make it through to a Grand Final as I think that they still can even with a loss because they get a home semi final at the MCG probably against West Coast and an interstate travel across the border against Adelaide or Sydney shouldnt bother them either becuase of their interstate record in those states is terrific just wondering your thoughts on that one.Secondly I was just wondering whether you think Cloke and Dawes can fire as a tandem as they did when Collingwood were dominant in 2010/11 those two were integral to their success and does Dawes come back into the team or do they leave him out for another week and also do you think Cloke will stay or head off to Carlton with Mick Malthouse.

Commenter

Kizzie Louise Staker

Location

Broken Hill NSW

Date and time

September 06, 2012, 9:17AM
- Hi Kizzie, Yes I think they can still win it, but would have to play significantly better than they have the last three games, and Hawthorn have dealt comfortably with them twice already this year. Point about winning on the road is valid, but really think they'd need to win this week, otherwise not sure they could recover enough belief after a month of patchy form. I don't buy the "Cloke better because Dawes wasn't there" line, they worked pretty well as a tandem the previous two seasons, just seems a convenient rationale for some. And on Cloke, just a hunch, but I do think he might end up staying.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  September 06, 2012, 12:17PM
Just wondering what are your thoughts on Carlton and the handling of Brett Rattens sacking and Mick Malthouses arrival at the Blues.Personally Ratts was hard done by with injuries and inconsistent form as the players must lay blame for their pathetic efforts this season particularly the Port Adelaide and Gold Coast losses as the coach is not the one to pull on the jumper and boots and perform its all his underachieving squad just wondering your thoughts.As for Mick I think he is excactly the right fit for their club hard nosed no nonsence coach with almost 30 years experience at three clubs left Collingwood at the top of his game and is a great coach.Can he achieve what he achieved at West Coast and Collingwood and bring his new club ultimate success and deliver the Blues their first flag since 1995 and record 17th flag and in how many years can it take to achieve the ultimate success because Carlton with all its talent and draft picks should start performing more consistently.

Commenter

Blakey Pitts

Location

Broken Hill NSW

Date and time

September 06, 2012, 9:28AM
- Malthouse did not leave the Pies at the top of his game. He made serious errors in the GF last season, like playing obviously unfit players, like Jolly and Reid and Didak, he knew they were unfit and played them. He was badly outcoached on the day by Scott, he left Reid on Hawkins far too long, Reid was totallly unfit, and when he made a change, the horse had long bolted. Collingwood moved him on for good reason, he is very rigid, old fashioned, wont take advice, and his boundary line gameplan is boring beyond belief, yet he refuses to fine tune it, he also plays favourites. Goodluck to Carlton with him, they truly deserve each other, he is no Messiah. As Walls said, he won one flag in 17 seasons.
  
  Commenter
  
  Piesnchess
  
  Location
  
  Dandenong Nth
  
  Date and time
  
  September 06, 2012, 10:45AM
- Yeah, I have to agree with "Piesnchess". I have been a Carlton supporter my whole life, but I haven't been happy with a coach since Parkin's health caused him to, sort of, retire.
  Britten, well, he could not finish a sentence!
  Pagan, really have nothing to say, because if I said something, it would not be published.
  Ratten, well, I think he did all he was capable of, and after the damage of Pagan, well he did pretty good, considering.
  I do not think Carlton has recovered from the Elliot era yet, he did so much damage to every aspect of the whole club.
  But, at least the people there now, do work for the club’s interest.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rodney
  
  Location
  
  Dandenong
  
  Date and time
  
  September 06, 2012, 11:57AM
- Hi Blakey, Wrote last week I thought he was hard done by, given team's continual improvement under him until this season. But there are reasonable comparisons there with Freo and Harvey/Lyon. If the issue was strictly which coach would you prefer, think a vast majority would take Malthouse before Ratts. Guess commitments don't count for much in the coaching world. Malthouse has a proven record if getting consistent performance levels from his best players, and that's what the Blues need most, I think, essentially a bit of hardening up.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  September 06, 2012, 12:20PM