Live blog: Round seven rule out the window?

Date: June 6, 2012

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Connolly and Carlton both looking crook

From the warmth of his man-cave, a flu-stricken Rohan Connollly lays down his tips for round 11.

We'll call it a day there, folks. Great questions and discussion today, thanks a lot. An interesting few weeks of the season coming up, the bye can do strange things, will be interesting to see whether the status quo is the same a month down the track. Anyway, have a great football weekend, and we'll see you back here next Thursday at 12pm.

THREE weeks ago, in my Monday column for the Age, I outlined the reliability of the ''round seven rule'', and came up with a final ladder.

The round seven theory might still hold up, though the top eight has already changed by two teams since then, but boy that ladder is looking a bit sick, particularly the team I had finishing on top.

Carlton, the day of its Monday night clash with St Kilda, was riding high with a 5-1 record, and form good enough to justify it finishing with as many as 18 wins. Four games on, the Blues would be at long odds indeed to finish top, are going to struggle to make top four, and in their current state, could quite conceivably miss the eight altogether.

What do you think? Are we casting too much doom and gloom on the bluebaggers? Join a live blog with Rohan Connolly from midday Thursday.

40 comments

I was really disappointed with the Western Buldogs on the weekend against Sydney as to me they were absolutely disgraceful.There was no excuse for that performance and they have escaped the spotlight this week considering the Roos and Blues have instead been in the news for all the wrong reasons and deservedly so but the Dogs we have never heard how bad they were.Everyone has talked up how good they were in close losses to Adelaide Collingwood and Geelong but in all three of those games the Dogs were right in it till about halfway through the last quarter but simply couldn't get the job done which is a hallmark of a bad team and remember this team was also belted by West Coast St Kilda and now Sydney and everyone makes comment about how good their form was when they only beat Melbourne GWS Gold Coast and North Melbourne the four worst teams in the AFL at present and can't beat a top four team haven't since 2009 the Dogs are 0-15 side sice 2010 and to me I have to agree with Leigh Matthews in that they are a side that will have a long painful rebuild and it could take five years before the Dogs can once again challenge for the finals considering they are rebuilding in the worst climate with the two expansion teams in the competition make it tough and it was not so long ago this club was in three prelim finals and had a terrible year last year and now Brendan McCartney has to start all over again and rebuild.

Commenter

Eric Bischoff

Location

Former WCW president and NWO leader Former GM of WWE Raw current Executive Producer of TNA

Date and time

June 07, 2012, 9:55AM
- Hi Eric,
  
  Some reasonable points there, though I did think they looked OK in those first losses you spoke about. I do think they've turned up some reasonable talent this year in Dickson and Smith, and Wallis, Cordy and Veszpremi have come on, but it still tends to hang off the performance of the usual suspects, and as a group, their contribution is diminishing. Don't agree they need to start again, but I don't expect them to be shooting up the ladder suddenly any time soon, either.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  June 07, 2012, 12:10PM
Where do you think Fremantle are at as to me their last three weeks have been absolutely terrible back to the bad old Dockers once again.They stunk it up as usual against Hawthorn and West Coast hardly giving it a yelp and against Adelaide challenged hit the front and lost complete control in the last 10 minutes conceding the last five goals of the game.They are three quality sides who should finish top four and challenge for a flag but that is no excuse for their capitulation in those games and it is a far cry from Ross Lyons teams who are very stirly in defense traditionally hard to score against as evidenced in the Dockers 5-2 start and of course at St Kilda in five years including the 2009-10 GF seasons remembering the Dockers were the best defensive team in the AFL in the first seven round now they are being opened up the last three weeks.Freo have too many stars out of form with the likes of Mundy and Barlow not reaching anywhere near their best after injury interrupted seasons Ballyntyne has been a major disappointment since returning from the Scarlett suspension hasn't fired a shot since Pavlich needs to impose himself more and have a greater impact on the game and the likes of Lower who had a breakout year off the rookie list last year can't get a game and Suban Bradley and Silvagni can't get a game this year either.What do you make of those changes from Harvey to Lyon and can the Dockers cause an upset and beat Tigers it could happen remembering they caused upsets and beat Saints and Cats early season.

Commenter

Hollywood Hulk Hogan

Location

Former WWF and WCW champion Former NWO leader and Current TNA GM

Date and time

June 07, 2012, 10:17AM
- Hi Hulk,
  
  They've been incredibly disappointing, I think pretty much since what seemed like a really significant win here against St Kilda. Midfield isn't what it was cracked up to be, largely, as you say, because of the underwhelming performances of Barlow and Mundy post-injury, they still don't take advantage of Sandilands' ruck dominance, and Pavlich has had by his standards a really poor season, I think. Greatest concern is that mental fragility, which was at its worst in that Hawthorn game in Tassie, they were pathetic that afternoon. Really hard to see them causing Richmond any problems because of that. Of course they look OK on paper, but their record at the MCG is diabolical, have lost their last 10 there and haven't won there for more than five years!
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  June 07, 2012, 12:19PM
Hi Rohan,
Again, I write to bemoan the insipid and now, dare I say it, slothful perfromances of North Melbourne. Off field events this week only accentuate my sense of angst. In your opinion, does the club at this point need a complete cleanout and overhaul of both playing and administrative staff? My view may come across as "knee-jerk" to some, but the club has been going nowhere fast for 10 years, and that is way too long.

Commenter

Greg

Location

Date and time

June 07, 2012, 10:46AM
- Hi Greg,
  
  They're certainly at a low ebb right now. That said, 2009 was a bit of a downward spiral for them, too, and they did tough that out OK. I don't necessarily buy the correlation between off and on field, think it's too easy a link to draw, but there are issues for both, clearly. Off the field, they need to stop the petty politicking and I think JB has some big decisions to make about the extent of his involvement. Obviously finding a new CEO is critical. On the field, that group of youngsters in midfield hasn't progressed as quickly as it might have, seems to be a bit of immaturity (football immaturity, that is) in maintaining a reasonably consistent level of performance. I don't think it's irretrievable, but miss the finals, which looks increasingly likely, and there will be some serious questions asked of the coaching staff.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  June 07, 2012, 12:28PM
Do you think Essendons dropped game to Melbourne now could be more beneficial to the minds of the young bombers than dropping the game to Sydney this week? (assuming they win). I feel it may give them some extra drive coming into the bye to finish the second half of the year strong and also gives them breathing room on the ladder than they would get by losing to a Geelong, Sydney or Carlton.

Commenter

Alex

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

June 07, 2012, 11:00AM
- Hi Alex,
  
  Certainly wouldn't be assuming a win over Sydney, think that will be tough indeed, but I have been thinking the same thing a bit myself, was certainly a good wake up call in terms of the application required each week, and they hadn't played overly-well against GWS or the second half against Richmond. Bye is coming at the right time, problem, though, is that with a pretty tough run home, that Melbourne loss could still be the one which ends up costing them a top four spot. Overall, reckon they'd be pretty happy with 8-2, but win this week is very important.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  June 07, 2012, 12:38PM
The premiership race is wide open this season how do we know who will win it this season.The top six is massive there will be two unlucky losers and could this be the season where a team wins the flag from outside the top four? The top four this year I think in order will be West Coast Collingwood Adelaide and Sydney the next four and for it to be another Swans Eagles GF and Eagles to win flag.To round out the eight being Essendon Hawthorn Geelong and St Kilda with Richmond to finish in their customary ninth once again as they have every even numbered season since 1994 finishing ninth six times since then this I think could be seven remember its an even numbered season.The bottom three in order will be Melbourne GWS and Gold Coast the Giants to avoid spoon in what would be a terrific season for young Giants and for the fellow expansion club Suns to win spoon in what will be a topsy turfy season and the most even season in AFL history since Adelaide won back to back flags in 1997//98 and also do you think the quality of football has been the best season in years even better than what you predicted in 2009 as the best year of football you ever seen as there have been a number of great games that have been free flowing exciting footy despite several blowouts.What are your thoughts on how it will go down at the end of the season as we enter the halfway points of the season.

Commenter

The Nature Boy Ric Flair

Location

Former WWF and WCW 16 time World Champion Current TNA Manager

Date and time

June 07, 2012, 11:02AM
- Hi Ric,
  
  Certainly shaping up as the closest season I can remember, though don't agree on the standard. It's been good, but not quite matching 2009 in my view, and number of blow outs with the two "newish" teams does mean there's been more low points. It's such a moveable feast that predictions made one week can look pretty silly three or four weeks down the track (witness me putting Carlton on top a month ago!). Right now, and I stress now, my final top four is Collingwood, West Coast, Adelaide and Hawthorn, though that last one is heavily qualified. Pretty confident with those top three, but fourth looks a raffle between as many as four or five sides.
  
  Commenter
  
  Rohan Connolly
  
  Location
  
  Date and time
  
  June 07, 2012, 12:44PM