JavaScript disabled. Please enable JavaScript to use My News, My Clippings, My Comments and user settings.

If you have trouble accessing our login form below, you can go to our login page.

If you have trouble accessing our login form below, you can go to our login page.

Brownlow 'absolute lottery'

Date

Matt Murnane

The 2009 Brownlow Medal winner, Gary Ablett.

The 2009 Brownlow Medal winner, Gary Ablett. Photo: Vince Caligiuri

TONIGHT'S Brownlow Medal count is looming as the most open for decades.

Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett goes in as favourite or joint favourite for the fourth time in his career, but at $4 is the longest-priced market leader since TAB Sportsbet began betting on the event in 1998.

<p></p>

''It's an absolute lottery,'' TAB Sportsbet's Adam Hamilton said yesterday.

Bookmakers have declared 2012 unique as far as betting on the Brownlow is concerned, and cannot recall another year when the first three favourites - Ablett, Richmond midfielder Trent Cotchin ($4.50 with TAB Sportsbet) and Essendon skipper Jobe Watson ($5) - come from teams that did not make the finals.

Should Ablett salute, it will be the first time in 63 years that a player has won a Brownlow Medal in a team that won only three games, the last being Hawthorn's Col Austen in 1949.

''This has been the biggest [betting Brownlow] we've ever had, it's been extraordinary,'' Betstar's Alan Eskander said yesterday.

''And traditionally Monday is when you do most of your business.''

TAB Sportsbet is holding close to $1 million more than last year.

The theory is that 2012 is a year ''out of the box'' and lends itself to either Ablett, Cotchin or Watson becoming the first player since Shane Crawford in 1999 to win the medal from a team that did not make the finals.

But if the umpires' votes mirror a more traditional pattern - and the winner comes from a successful team - then stars such as Hawthorn's Sam Mitchell ($7), Adelaide duo Patrick Dangerfield ($8) and Scott Thompson ($9), Sydney's Josh Kennedy ($11) or Collingwood trio Dane Swan ($13), Dayne Beams ($17) and Scott Pendlebury ($26) will come into the frame.

A study conducted by The Age online - using results of the 3AW, and AFL Coaches Association awards - predicted that Dangerfield would poll in 15 games to secure 31 votes and win the medal ahead of Watson on 29 votes.

Mitchell has been the big mover with most betting agencies in the past week, while in the past 48 hours there has been a flood of money for Cotchin, who won The Age Player of the Year award. Pendlebury, Watson, Cotchin and Ablett have all been favourites at some point this season.

''We've had quite a fluctuation this year, whereas in previous years we've had favourites who have been short and they've been short all the way through [the year],'' Centrebet's Michael Felgate said yesterday.

''So it is very open and now punters are looking for a bit of value and they've started going around the favourites.''

Chris Judd in 2010 and Jason Akermanis (2001) are the longest-priced Brownlow Medal winners since 1998, both at $15.

Most agencies agreed yesterday that the winner's tally would be well short of Swan's record 34-vote haul last year.

Most predict the medal can be won this year with less than 30 votes, which could play into the hands of the three favourites from non-finals teams. Ablett recorded 23 votes last year despite the Suns winning just three games, the same as this year.

 

2012 BROWNLOW MEDAL

The invitation list
 

ADELAIDE 

Scott Thompson, Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Sam Jacobs, Nathan Van Berlo (c) 

BRISBANE LIONS 

Joel Patfull, Pearce Hanley, Tom Rockliff, Jonathan Brown (c) 

CARLTON 

Eddie Betts, Heath Scotland, Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson, Chris Judd (c) 

COLLINGWOOD 

Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Dale Thomas, Nick Maxwell (c) 

ESSENDON 

Brent Stanton, Patrick Ryder, Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson (c) 

FREMANTLE 

Chris Mayne, Stephen Hill, Michael Johnson, Aaron Sandilands 

GEELONG 

Paul Chapman, Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins, Joel Selwood (c) 

GOLD COAST 

Harley Bennell, David Swallow, Dion Prestia, Gary Ablett (c) 

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 

Adam Treloar, Jonathan Giles, Phil Davis, Jeremy Cameron, Callan Ward (c) 

HAWTHORN 

Grant Birchall, Lance Franklin, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Cyril Rioli, Luke Hodge (c) 

MELBOURNE 

Nathan Jones, Mitch Clark, Jeremy Howe, Jack Trengove (c), Jack Grimes (c)

NORTH MELBOURNE 

Drew Petrie, Ryan Bastinac, Scott Thompson, Andrew Swallow (c)

PORT ADELAIDE 

Jay Schulz, Brad Ebert, Kane Cornes 

RICHMOND 

Trent Cotchin, Ivan Maric, Shane Tuck, Jack Riewoldt, Chris Newman (c) 

ST KILDA 

Sean Dempster, Nick Dal Santo, Stephen Milne, Nick Riewoldt (c) 

SYDNEY *

Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Lewis Jetta, Adam Goodes, Ryan O'Keefe, Jarrad McVeigh (c)

WEST COAST 

Scott Selwood, Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui, Andrew Gaff, Matt Rosa, Darren Glass (c) 

WESTERN BULLDOGS 

Ryan Griffen, Robert Murphy, Liam Picken, Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd (c) 

*Sydney players attending a function in Sydney

15 comments

  • No invite for Lids? Must be a miss-print.

    Commenter
    Antoniolino
    Location
    Brisbane
    Date and time
    September 24, 2012, 9:24AM
    • Who is Lids?

      Commenter
      Lobo Gris
      Location
      Hawthorn
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:13AM
    • That would be Brett Deledio.

      — Ed

      Commenter
      Ed
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 11:20AM
    • And how about Pav?? Why are there so few from each team? It's a massive event, centred around the players themselves, yet there are only 4-5 representatives from each. A bit puzzled by that, to be honest. Go Jobe, btw....

      Commenter
      daffyrocks1
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:19AM
    • also puzzled as to why deledio not on the list. especially as he is one of the favourites. maybe he will give his speech from home in his pyjamas

      Commenter
      ascrods
      Location
      tigerland
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:23AM
  • I did a quick run through over the weekend and came up withe following results: Ablett (35), Watson (33), S Thompson (31), Dangerfield (27), Mitchell (26), Cotchin (26).

    Commenter
    George
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    September 24, 2012, 10:08AM
    • (yawn) It's all about the betting, it seems.

      Commenter
      JohnB
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:29AM
      • And what the WAGS wear. If I was a footballer, I would feel a bit miffed about that. Mind you, most of them probably enjoy NOT being the centre of attention.

        Commenter
        Andrew
        Date and time
        September 24, 2012, 1:07PM
    • Ablett to easily break the record for most 3 votes received in losing games. .

      Commenter
      Rocky
      Location
      Docklands
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:44AM
      • I'd reckon Watson. Essendon won what 10 games? They don't have any other players do they?? So that's 30 votes to start with....

        Ablett will get votes, but if he's getting votes in games when GC were beaten by 40-50 pts which was often, then there is something wrong. They had 5 close games and won 3, so that's a maximum of 24 he should get really.

        Looking at it closer in basic terms.
        Ablett, won 3 games, avge 33 possies, 26 goals.
        Kennedy, won 16, 28p, 27 gls.
        Swan, won 16, 34p, 22g.
        Beams, won 16, 31p, 27g.
        Mitchell, won 17, 27p, 7g but his in and under work exceptional.
        Thompson, won 17, 29p, 10g but again in and under exceptional.
        Dangerfield, won 17, 26p, 22g.
        Cotchin, won 10.5, 27p, 21g.
        Watson, won 11, 29p, 20g.

        Scott Selwood might poll well for the first half of the season. Jarrad McVeigh might go ok too, and Andrew Swallow being captain would have to poll votes at North.

        Will be interesting to see how many votes players like Glass and McPharlin and Ted Richards get as they pretty much shut down their opponent every week.

        And Milne. Kicked 3 or more goals ten times.

        Commenter
        azz
        Date and time
        September 24, 2012, 10:47AM

        More comments

        Comments are now closed

        Related Coverage

        AFL 2015

        Round 1
        Thu, 02 AprTimes shown AEDT
        CAR 78vs RIC 105 Report Stats
        Sat, 04 AprTimes shown AEDT
        MEL 115vs GCF 89 Stats
        SYD 72vs ESS 60 Stats
        BRI 74vs COL 86 Stats
        WBU 97vs WCE 87 Stats
        Sun, 05 AprTimes shown AEST
        STK 78vs GWS 87 Stats
        ADE 140vs NTH 63 Stats
        FRE 75vs PTA 68 Stats
        Mon, 06 AprTimes shown AEST
        HAW 123vs GEE 61 Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 2
        Fri, 10 AprTimes shown AEST
        WCE 131vs CAR 62 Stats
        Sat, 11 AprTimes shown AEST
        RIC 66vs WBU 85 Report Stats
        GWS 101vs MEL 56 Stats
        COL 63vs ADE 90 Report Stats
        GCF 76vs STK 104 Stats
        PTA 44vs SYD 92 Stats
        Sun, 12 AprTimes shown AEST
        GEE 60vs FRE 104 Stats
        ESS 78vs HAW 76 Stats
        NTH 133vs BRI 51 Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 3
        Fri, 17 AprTimes shown AEST
        COL 140vs STK 66 Stats
        Sat, 18 AprTimes shown AEST
        CAR 84vs ESS 105 Stats
        ADE 80vs MEL 55 Stats
        SYD 111vs GWS 90 Report Stats
        NTH 105vs PTA 113 Stats
        BRI 58vs RIC 137 Stats
        Sun, 19 AprTimes shown AEST
        HAW 127vs WBU 57 Stats
        GEE 105vs GCF 96 Stats
        WCE 81vs FRE 111 Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 4
        Fri, 24 AprTimes shown AEST
        RIC 51vs MEL 83 Stats
        Sat, 25 AprTimes shown AEST
        STK 81vs CAR 121 Report Report Stats
        ESS 49vs COL 69 Report Stats
        GWS 119vs GCF 53 Stats
        PTA 99vs HAW 91 Stats
        FRE 74vs SYD 60 Stats
        Sun, 26 AprTimes shown AEST
        BRI 65vs WCE 118 Stats
        GEE 67vs NTH 83 Stats
        WBU 125vs ADE 68 Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 5
        Fri, 01 MayTimes shown AEST
        CAR 45vs COL 120 Stats
        Sat, 02 MayTimes shown AEST
        RIC 76vs GEE 85 Stats
        SYD 73vs WBU 77 Stats
        GCF 118vs BRI 54 Stats
        NTH 70vs HAW 130 Stats
        WCE 120vs GWS 33 Stats
        Sun, 03 MayTimes shown AEST
        MEL 50vs FRE 118 Stats
        STK 80vs ESS 82 Stats
        ADE 91vs PTA 115 Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 6
        Fri, 08 MayTimes shown AEST
        COL 59vs GEE 100 Stats
        Sat, 09 MayTimes shown AEST
        NTH 109vs RIC 74 Stats
        WBU 87vs STK 94 Stats
        GWS 108vs HAW 98 Stats
        GCF 78vs ADE 119 Stats
        MEL 50vs SYD 88 Stats
        FRE 80vs ESS 52 Stats
        Sun, 10 MayTimes shown AEST
        CAR 75vs BRI 84 Report Stats
        PTA 68vs WCE 78 Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 7
        Fri, 15 MayTimes shown AEST
        ESS 82vs NTH 93 Stats
        Sat, 16 MayTimes shown AEST
        ADE 119vs STK 73 Stats
        HAW 155vs MEL 50 Stats
        CAR 57vs GWS 135 Stats
        SYD 120vs GEE 77 Stats
        WCE 135vs GCF 43 Stats
        Sun, 17 MayTimes shown AEST
        WBU 88vs FRE 101 Stats
        RIC 105vs COL 100 Report Stats
        BRI 102vs PTA 65 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 8
        Fri, 22 MayTimes shown AEST
        GEE 140vs CAR 63 Report Stats
        Sat, 23 MayTimes shown AEST
        STK 78vs WCE 131 Report Stats
        GWS 108vs ADE 84 Report Stats
        GCF 63vs COL 132 Report Stats
        HAW 69vs SYD 73 Report Stats
        FRE 115vs NTH 42 Report Stats
        Sun, 24 MayTimes shown AEST
        ESS 136vs BRI 78 Report Stats
        MEL 103vs WBU 64 Report Stats
        PTA 43vs RIC 76 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 9
        Fri, 29 MayTimes shown AEST
        SYD 122vs CAR 62 Report Stats
        Sat, 30 MayTimes shown AEST
        HAW 93vs GCF 40 Report Stats
        MEL 54vs PTA 115 Report Stats
        WBU 113vs GWS 68 Report Stats
        RIC 72vs ESS 59 Report Stats
        ADE 57vs FRE 68 Report Stats
        Sun, 31 MayTimes shown AEST
        BRI 86vs STK 108 Report Stats
        COL 112vs NTH 95 Report Stats
        WCE 120vs GEE 64 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 10
        Fri, 05 JunTimes shown AEST
        FRE 70vs RIC 97 Report Stats
        Sat, 06 JunTimes shown AEST
        CAR 90vs ADE 99 Report Stats
        GCF 41vs SYD 93 Report Stats
        ESS 53vs GEE 122 Report Stats
        PTA 100vs WBU 62 Report Stats
        Sun, 07 JunTimes shown AEST
        GWS 97vs BRI 67 Report Stats
        NTH 85vs WCE 75 Report Stats
        STK 69vs HAW 132 Report Stats
        Mon, 08 JunTimes shown AEST
        MEL 85vs COL 110 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 11
        Fri, 12 JunTimes shown AEST
        PTA 69vs GEE 92 Report Stats
        Sat, 13 JunTimes shown AEST
        GCF 46vs FRE 53 Report Stats
        WCE 96vs ESS 46 Report Stats
        NTH 75vs SYD 91 Report Report Stats
        Sun, 14 JunTimes shown AEST
        COL 119vs GWS 77 Report Stats
        STK 85vs MEL 83 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 12
        Thu, 18 JunTimes shown AEST
        ADE 85vs HAW 114 Report Stats
        Fri, 19 JunTimes shown AEST
        RIC 70vs WCE 90 Report Stats
        Sat, 20 JunTimes shown AEST
        CAR 110vs PTA 106 Report Stats
        GWS 61vs NTH 117 Report Stats
        WBU 146vs BRI 74 Report Stats
        Sun, 21 JunTimes shown AEST
        GEE 89vs MEL 113 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 13
        Thu, 25 JunTimes shown AEST
        FRE 80vs COL 73 Report Stats
        Fri, 26 JunTimes shown AEST
        SYD 77vs RIC 95 Report Stats
        Sat, 27 JunTimes shown AEST
        HAW 114vs ESS 76 Report Stats
        BRI 69vs ADE 82 Report Stats
        STK 56vs WBU 62 Report Stats
        Sun, 28 JunTimes shown AEST
        CAR 103vs GCF 69 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 14
        Thu, 02 JulTimes shown AEST
        SYD 94vs PTA 84 Report Stats
        Fri, 03 JulTimes shown AEST
        COL 91vs HAW 101 Report Stats
        Sat, 04 JulTimes shown AEST
        RIC 78vs GWS 69 Report Stats
        GCF 125vs NTH 70 Report Stats
        WBU 64vs CAR 53 Report Stats
        MEL 60vs WCE 114 Report Stats
        Sun, 05 JulTimes shown AEST
        ESS 52vs STK 162 Stats
        ADE vs GEE 15:20Adelaide Oval
        FRE 84vs BRI 48 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 15
        Thu, 09 JulTimes shown AEST
        PTA 66vs COL 63 Report Stats
        Fri, 10 JulTimes shown AEST
        RIC 71vs CAR 41 Report Stats
        Sat, 11 JulTimes shown AEST
        ESS 69vs MEL 60 Report Stats
        WBU 95vs GCF 73 Report Stats
        NTH 120vs GEE 79 Report Stats
        WCE 147vs ADE 91 Report Stats
        Sun, 12 JulTimes shown AEST
        GWS 84vs STK 49 Report Stats
        HAW 115vs FRE 43 Report Stats
        BRI 49vs SYD 70 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 16
        Fri, 17 JulTimes shown AEST
        NTH 93vs ESS 68 Report Stats
        Sat, 18 JulTimes shown AEST
        GEE 72vs WBU 64 Report Stats
        GCF 79vs GWS 94 Report Stats
        COL 56vs WCE 87 Report Stats
        SYD 57vs HAW 146 Report Stats
        FRE 95vs CAR 53 Report Stats
        Sun, 19 JulTimes shown AEST
        MEL 60vs BRI 36 Report Stats
        PTA 113vs ADE 116 Report Stats
        STK 73vs RIC 89 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 17
        Fri, 24 JulTimes shown AEST
        CAR 35vs HAW 173 Report Stats
        Sat, 25 JulTimes shown AEST
        GWS 42vs GEE 69 Stats
        ADE 125vs GCF 80 Stats
        RIC 78vs FRE 82 Stats
        ESS 116vs PTA 129 Stats
        BRI 38vs NTH 110 Report Stats
        Sun, 26 JulTimes shown AEST
        WBU 104vs COL 86 Report Stats
        MEL 46vs STK 83 Report Stats
        WCE 103vs SYD 51 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 18
        Fri, 31 JulTimes shown AEST
        HAW 53vs RIC 71 Report Stats
        Sat, 01 AugTimes shown AEST
        GEE 113vs BRI 57 Stats
        COL 54vs MEL 91 Report Stats
        SYD 117vs ADE 65 Report Stats
        CAR 54vs NTH 118 Report Stats
        GCF 83vs WCE 83 Report Stats
        Sun, 02 AugTimes shown AEST
        PTA 112vs STK 49 Report Stats
        ESS 40vs WBU 127 Report Stats
        FRE 84vs GWS 63 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 19
        Fri, 07 AugTimes shown AEST
        ADE 88vs RIC 52 Report Stats
        Sat, 08 AugTimes shown AEST
        COL 105vs CAR 87 Report Stats
        WBU 128vs PTA 64 Report Stats
        BRI 100vs GCF 114 Report Stats
        GEE 95vs SYD 63 Report Stats
        WCE 74vs HAW 88 Report Stats
        Sun, 09 AugTimes shown AEST
        MEL 92vs NTH 127 Report Stats
        GWS 93vs ESS 61 Report Stats
        STK 59vs FRE 96 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 20
        Fri, 14 AugTimes shown AEST
        SYD 87vs COL 76 Report Stats
        Sat, 15 AugTimes shown AEST
        ESS 59vs ADE 171 Report Stats
        NTH 120vs STK 83 Report Stats
        PTA 111vs GWS 90 Report Stats
        GEE 85vs HAW 121 Report Stats
        BRI 131vs CAR 67 Report Stats
        Sun, 16 AugTimes shown AEST
        RIC 138vs GCF 55 Report Stats
        WBU 153vs MEL 55 Report Stats
        FRE 80vs WCE 104 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 21
        Fri, 21 AugTimes shown AEST
        HAW 86vs PTA 108 Report Stats
        Sat, 22 AugTimes shown AEST
        COL 56vs RIC 147 Report Stats
        GWS 44vs SYD 133 Report Stats
        GCF 97vs ESS 95 Report Stats
        STK 97vs GEE 97 Report Stats
        ADE 131vs BRI 44 Report Stats
        Sun, 23 AugTimes shown AEST
        NTH 94vs FRE 83 Report Stats
        CAR 78vs MEL 55 Report Stats
        WCE 162vs WBU 85 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 22
        Fri, 28 AugTimes shown AEST
        GEE 62vs COL 110 Report Stats
        Sat, 29 AugTimes shown AEST
        GWS 132vs CAR 51 Report Stats
        HAW 134vs BRI 62 Report Stats
        NTH 73vs WBU 96 Report Stats
        ESS 47vs RIC 74 Report Stats
        GCF 51vs PTA 88 Report Stats
        Sun, 30 AugTimes shown AEST
        ADE 126vs WCE 69 Report Stats
        STK 38vs SYD 135 Report Stats
        FRE 108vs MEL 54 Report Stats
        View All Fixtures
        Round 23
        Fri, 04 SepTimes shown AEST
        RIC ($1.29)vs NTH ($3.60) 19:50ES
        Sat, 05 SepTimes shown AEST
        GEE ($2.50)vs ADE ($1.53) 13:05SS
        BRI ($4.50)vs WBU ($1.20) 13:45G
        PTA vs FRE 15:50Adelaide Oval
        HAW ($1.01)vs CAR ($17.00) 16:40MCG
        SYD ($1.04)vs GCF ($11.00) 19:20SCG
        WCE ($1.04)vs STK ($11.00) 19:40Domain Stadium
        Sun, 06 SepTimes shown AEST
        MEL ($3.20)vs GWS ($1.36) 13:10ES
        COL ($1.28)vs ESS ($3.70) 15:20MCG
        View All Fixtures
        AFL 2015
        Overall standings
        Team P W L D % Pts
        Fremantle 21 17 4 0 125.10 68
        West Coast Eagles 21 15 5 1 143.00 62
        Hawthorn 21 15 6 0 156.77 60
        Sydney Swans 21 15 6 0 124.11 60
        Richmond 21 14 7 0 121.39 56
        Western Bulldogs 21 14 7 0 116.76 56
        Adelaide Crows 20 13 7 0 119.10 54
        North Melbourne 21 13 8 0 109.08 52
        View all
         

        Follow Us on Facebook

        HuffPost Australia

        Featured advertisers