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Brownlow 'absolute lottery'

Date

Matt Murnane

The 2009 Brownlow Medal winner, Gary Ablett.

The 2009 Brownlow Medal winner, Gary Ablett. Photo: Vince Caligiuri

TONIGHT'S Brownlow Medal count is looming as the most open for decades.

Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett goes in as favourite or joint favourite for the fourth time in his career, but at $4 is the longest-priced market leader since TAB Sportsbet began betting on the event in 1998.

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''It's an absolute lottery,'' TAB Sportsbet's Adam Hamilton said yesterday.

Bookmakers have declared 2012 unique as far as betting on the Brownlow is concerned, and cannot recall another year when the first three favourites - Ablett, Richmond midfielder Trent Cotchin ($4.50 with TAB Sportsbet) and Essendon skipper Jobe Watson ($5) - come from teams that did not make the finals.

Should Ablett salute, it will be the first time in 63 years that a player has won a Brownlow Medal in a team that won only three games, the last being Hawthorn's Col Austen in 1949.

''This has been the biggest [betting Brownlow] we've ever had, it's been extraordinary,'' Betstar's Alan Eskander said yesterday.

''And traditionally Monday is when you do most of your business.''

TAB Sportsbet is holding close to $1 million more than last year.

The theory is that 2012 is a year ''out of the box'' and lends itself to either Ablett, Cotchin or Watson becoming the first player since Shane Crawford in 1999 to win the medal from a team that did not make the finals.

But if the umpires' votes mirror a more traditional pattern - and the winner comes from a successful team - then stars such as Hawthorn's Sam Mitchell ($7), Adelaide duo Patrick Dangerfield ($8) and Scott Thompson ($9), Sydney's Josh Kennedy ($11) or Collingwood trio Dane Swan ($13), Dayne Beams ($17) and Scott Pendlebury ($26) will come into the frame.

A study conducted by The Age online - using results of the 3AW, and AFL Coaches Association awards - predicted that Dangerfield would poll in 15 games to secure 31 votes and win the medal ahead of Watson on 29 votes.

Mitchell has been the big mover with most betting agencies in the past week, while in the past 48 hours there has been a flood of money for Cotchin, who won The Age Player of the Year award. Pendlebury, Watson, Cotchin and Ablett have all been favourites at some point this season.

''We've had quite a fluctuation this year, whereas in previous years we've had favourites who have been short and they've been short all the way through [the year],'' Centrebet's Michael Felgate said yesterday.

''So it is very open and now punters are looking for a bit of value and they've started going around the favourites.''

Chris Judd in 2010 and Jason Akermanis (2001) are the longest-priced Brownlow Medal winners since 1998, both at $15.

Most agencies agreed yesterday that the winner's tally would be well short of Swan's record 34-vote haul last year.

Most predict the medal can be won this year with less than 30 votes, which could play into the hands of the three favourites from non-finals teams. Ablett recorded 23 votes last year despite the Suns winning just three games, the same as this year.

 

2012 BROWNLOW MEDAL

The invitation list
 

ADELAIDE 

Scott Thompson, Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Sam Jacobs, Nathan Van Berlo (c) 

BRISBANE LIONS 

Joel Patfull, Pearce Hanley, Tom Rockliff, Jonathan Brown (c) 

CARLTON 

Eddie Betts, Heath Scotland, Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson, Chris Judd (c) 

COLLINGWOOD 

Dayne Beams, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Dale Thomas, Nick Maxwell (c) 

ESSENDON 

Brent Stanton, Patrick Ryder, Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson (c) 

FREMANTLE 

Chris Mayne, Stephen Hill, Michael Johnson, Aaron Sandilands 

GEELONG 

Paul Chapman, Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins, Joel Selwood (c) 

GOLD COAST 

Harley Bennell, David Swallow, Dion Prestia, Gary Ablett (c) 

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 

Adam Treloar, Jonathan Giles, Phil Davis, Jeremy Cameron, Callan Ward (c) 

HAWTHORN 

Grant Birchall, Lance Franklin, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Cyril Rioli, Luke Hodge (c) 

MELBOURNE 

Nathan Jones, Mitch Clark, Jeremy Howe, Jack Trengove (c), Jack Grimes (c)

NORTH MELBOURNE 

Drew Petrie, Ryan Bastinac, Scott Thompson, Andrew Swallow (c)

PORT ADELAIDE 

Jay Schulz, Brad Ebert, Kane Cornes 

RICHMOND 

Trent Cotchin, Ivan Maric, Shane Tuck, Jack Riewoldt, Chris Newman (c) 

ST KILDA 

Sean Dempster, Nick Dal Santo, Stephen Milne, Nick Riewoldt (c) 

SYDNEY *

Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Lewis Jetta, Adam Goodes, Ryan O'Keefe, Jarrad McVeigh (c)

WEST COAST 

Scott Selwood, Dean Cox, Nic Naitanui, Andrew Gaff, Matt Rosa, Darren Glass (c) 

WESTERN BULLDOGS 

Ryan Griffen, Robert Murphy, Liam Picken, Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd (c) 

*Sydney players attending a function in Sydney

15 comments

  • No invite for Lids? Must be a miss-print.

    Commenter
    Antoniolino
    Location
    Brisbane
    Date and time
    September 24, 2012, 9:24AM
    • Who is Lids?

      Commenter
      Lobo Gris
      Location
      Hawthorn
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:13AM
    • That would be Brett Deledio.

      — Ed

      Commenter
      Ed
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 11:20AM
    • And how about Pav?? Why are there so few from each team? It's a massive event, centred around the players themselves, yet there are only 4-5 representatives from each. A bit puzzled by that, to be honest. Go Jobe, btw....

      Commenter
      daffyrocks1
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:19AM
    • also puzzled as to why deledio not on the list. especially as he is one of the favourites. maybe he will give his speech from home in his pyjamas

      Commenter
      ascrods
      Location
      tigerland
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:23AM
  • I did a quick run through over the weekend and came up withe following results: Ablett (35), Watson (33), S Thompson (31), Dangerfield (27), Mitchell (26), Cotchin (26).

    Commenter
    George
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    September 24, 2012, 10:08AM
    • (yawn) It's all about the betting, it seems.

      Commenter
      JohnB
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:29AM
      • And what the WAGS wear. If I was a footballer, I would feel a bit miffed about that. Mind you, most of them probably enjoy NOT being the centre of attention.

        Commenter
        Andrew
        Date and time
        September 24, 2012, 1:07PM
    • Ablett to easily break the record for most 3 votes received in losing games. .

      Commenter
      Rocky
      Location
      Docklands
      Date and time
      September 24, 2012, 10:44AM
      • I'd reckon Watson. Essendon won what 10 games? They don't have any other players do they?? So that's 30 votes to start with....

        Ablett will get votes, but if he's getting votes in games when GC were beaten by 40-50 pts which was often, then there is something wrong. They had 5 close games and won 3, so that's a maximum of 24 he should get really.

        Looking at it closer in basic terms.
        Ablett, won 3 games, avge 33 possies, 26 goals.
        Kennedy, won 16, 28p, 27 gls.
        Swan, won 16, 34p, 22g.
        Beams, won 16, 31p, 27g.
        Mitchell, won 17, 27p, 7g but his in and under work exceptional.
        Thompson, won 17, 29p, 10g but again in and under exceptional.
        Dangerfield, won 17, 26p, 22g.
        Cotchin, won 10.5, 27p, 21g.
        Watson, won 11, 29p, 20g.

        Scott Selwood might poll well for the first half of the season. Jarrad McVeigh might go ok too, and Andrew Swallow being captain would have to poll votes at North.

        Will be interesting to see how many votes players like Glass and McPharlin and Ted Richards get as they pretty much shut down their opponent every week.

        And Milne. Kicked 3 or more goals ten times.

        Commenter
        azz
        Date and time
        September 24, 2012, 10:47AM

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