Prophet’s Profit: Round 12 – Alex Mulholland, Footy Prophet
With round 12 done and dusted things are really starting to heat up in fantasy leagues. Hopefully this week’s Prophet’s Profit can help you improve your team in the lead up to the finals. Before we get in to the classic buy low/sell high here are some tips for your run into the finals.
Fantasy footy weekly update
Footy Prophet's Matthew James analyses the fantasy footy winners and losers from round twelve.
Keep your depth
It’s tempting to trade off a good bench player that doesn’t start for your team for some value to improve a starter, but you’re tempting fate by ruining your depth for a starting 18 improvement. It’s important to remember the fantasy finals are precariously situated just before the real AFL finals and that clubs won’t hesitate to rest a player at the earliest sign of a niggle. Therefore it’s important to make sure you have plenty of depth so you can deal with injuries without having to reach into the free agent market just before finals when there is very little left.
Keep a close eye on the free agent market
Don’t stop looking at the free agent market, even if you think you’re team is set. There will be players that pop up to give you instant value. For example Lachie Neale was a late season pick up in many leagues last year, and he averaged 92 over the last 5 games of 2013. Liam Picken was picked up late in the season by many and averaged 90 as a defender over the last 5. Never stop looking.
Always check player movement
List space can be at a premium at this stage of the season and there will always be 1 or 2 players that other teams drop that can instantly improve your team. In one of the leagues I play in one team manager (let’s call him Pat) dropped Paul Duffield, who will make a very reliable 4th or 5th defender for many a fantasy team. He was quickly snaffled up and repaid that fortunate team in droves with a 97 last week and a 111 this week.
Now onto two top-line players.
The Hawks dominated the Eagles, particularly in the second half, and ended up running out winners by 44 points. The West Coast midfielder had a sub-par game against the Hawks by his standards, managing only 18 possessions and 64 fantasy points. It’s not uncommon for teams that go up against a team like the Hawks and get beaten badly to score less fantasy points across the board. With the Suns at home and St. Kilda away over the next 2 games it’s very likely that the Eagles will be more competitive, and by extension improve their fantasy output. It’d be a very good idea to capitalise on this and buy low on Masten.
Verdict: Buy Low
The prolific Saints midfielder is a prime candidate for a buy low this week, simply because he has only averaged 78 fantasy points over the last 4 games. This is well below his usually sublime form of being a 105+ contributor. He was drafted as a number 1 or 2 midfielder and those who own him would be expecting much better output that what he has produced over the last month. The problem with Joey is that he has been copping a tag from opponents that see his run and carry as key to the Saints’ game. It won’t be long until the other Saints midfielders give Joey a chop out so he returns to his usual self.
Verdict: Buy Low
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