Peter Costello has been looking for a job that pays a lot of money. Apparently, Australian businesses are yet to be convinced that the former Treasurer can deliver value for big money. However, there is no impediment to Costello going back to the Melbourne bar where he worked before becoming the Liberal member for Higgins in 1990. If they work hard, good barristers can make $1 million a year.
But Costello seems to have lost his taste for the bar. Rather than resign from parliament, he is reportedly toying with staying and aiming to become Liberal leader. A top paying job at the bar is hard. However, it’s a breeze compared to the tension-packed work load confronting any opposition leader, particularly when trying to wrest power from an assiduous prime minister like Kevin Rudd who is streets ahead in the opinion polls.
More than hard work is needed. The current Liberal leader, Brendan Nelson, has boundless energy. Unfortunately, he lacks the rare skills essential to winning from the opposition benches, instead of simply being lucky enough to be hanging around when a government disintegrates. The obvious challenger, Malcolm Turnbull, also has a tremendous capacity for hard work and strong presentational skills. But some colleagues query whether he has made a coherent economic critique in his role of shadow Treasurer.
So what’s Costello got to offer if he lands the Opposition leader’s job? Although he was a passionate supporter of WorkChoices, he will hardly go into the next election promising to restore a law which played a significant part in the Coalition’s defeat last November. While in government, he was an early supporter of action on climate change. However, in the jostling now surrounding the leadership, it appears he will risk upsetting many voters by moving closer to dissident Coalition MPs who want to back off taking any action on the issue.
Many of Costello’s supporters put an undue emphasis on his reputation as great parliamentary performer. Bold predictions are made about how easily he would wipe the floor with Rudd and his Treasurer, Wayne Swan. While he was Treasurer, Costello delivered highly theatrical, often amusing, denunciations of the then Labor opposition during parliamentary Question Time. But most voters don’t care about parliamentary sizzle. Moreover, there are far fewer opportunities for devastating oratory during Question Time if you are stuck on the opposition benches. All you can really do is ask a question, and government minsters then launch a carefully prepared attack only vaguely masquerading as an answer.
The Howard government spent over 11 years in power, yet if it is difficult to point to a major policy initiative which is distinctively Costello’s. An exception could have stemmed from the way he highlighted the budgetary problems created by an aging population, but he then introduced several tax and welfare handouts that only added to the burden. Apart from his first budget in 1996, Costello failed to stop Howard from leading a big spending, big taxing government. Nor did Nick Minchin, who is now trying hard to stop Turnbull becoming Liberal leader, do any better as Finance Minister.
The greatest asset Costello would bring to the leadership is that he emerged from government with a reputation as a good economic manager. While the pronged economic growth Australians have enjoyed may be due to factors largely beyond Costello’s direct control, he deserves credit for not making a major blunder that plunged the nation back into recession. This is no trivial achievement. It will enhance his appeal if unemployment starts to rise sharply before the 2010 election. However, with the advantages of incumbency, Rudd and Swan will probably present a plausible narrative about why they are on the right track, while saying ad nauseam that "working families are doing it hard".
Unless Rudd becomes far more vulnerable than at present, Costello can’t relish the prospect of the prime ministership dropping into his lap. First, however, he has to release his memoirs on October 1. Melbourne University Press has paid a big advance for the book whose sales would be helped by quotable examples of John Howard’s supposed shortcomings. Presumably, some be included, given that he lost his own seat amid the wreckage of the Coalition’s electoral defeat last November. Although MUP will be upset, we’ll know that Costello has left the door open to a leadership bid if the memoirs contain nothing that might annoy the shrinking band of Liberal MPs who still deeply admire Howard.
Assuming the party does not hand Costello the leadership on plate, he will have to beat Turnbull for the job. Costello would probably be dismayed ifhe stands back and Turnbull takes over from Nelson. But a desire to block Turnbull’s advance is hardly the smartest motivation for running for the most fraught job in politics — opposition leader. If Costello does run, and wins narrowly, Turnbull will be waiting to pounce if he stumbles.
So will Rudd, a formidable campaigner who won’t surrender the keys to the prime ministerial Lodge without an unrelenting fight. Perhaps settling for a comfortably paced work load at the Melbourne bar, pulling down a mere $500,000 a year — supplemented by a handsome ministerial pension — will start to look attractive after all.