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Climate change sceptics need to think again

Anyone who thinks the global warming debate is done and dusted, need only type the words “climate sceptics’’ into a search engine and hang on for a white water ride.

It’s pretty scary territory, especially if you’re used to dealing with articulate, well-mannered climate scientists from the CSIRO or the Australian National University. They’ll happily explain the implications of oscillations in global mean temperatures without snarling like a car yard guard dog if you question any of the assumptions under-pinning their climate models. They like questions, because it gives them a chance to rummage out new graphs and peer-reviewed papers. Ask them about climate sceptics and they tend to use polite words like “worrying’’ or “disingenuous.’’ It’s a far cry from the insult and invective hurled about by the sceptics.

“You don’t go see Joseph Goebbels’ films to see the truth about Nazi Germany. You don’t want to go see Al Gore’s film to see the truth about global warming,’’ rails one Sterling Burnett, described as a “lead analyst’’ with the Texas-based National Centre for Policy Analysis.

“Nothing will stop the madness that has taken over the western word, an insanity that demands we destroy ourselves over the ludicrous claim that a tiny increase of a trace gas has endangered the world,’’ fumes Hans Schreuder, a retired chemist, who runs a climate sceptic website called “I love my carbon dioxide.’’

“Global warming is the biggest scam since the church sold indulgences back in the Middle Ages,’’ grumbles botanist David Bellamy who also claims “the latest data shows that both the northern and southern ice caps are actually growing.’’

Then there’s Herald-Sun blogger Andrew Bolt, who described a recent protest against climate change involving one of those “human signs’’ on a beach, as action supporting an ideology that required “greenshirts to stage rallies eerily similar to the ones once seen at Nuremberg.’’ Clearly he’s not sat through a screening Leni Riefenstahl’s Nazi-era epic documentary “Triumph of the Will’’, or he’d recall those rallies were on a cost and scale comparable to a modern Olympics opening ceremony. So why the odious comparison to a group of protesters mucking about on the beach to form a few letters?

Debate is great, but name-calling and invoking the spectre of Nazism to denigrate your opponents is grotesque. Ask anyone whose family has lived with the appalling legacy of those 1930s rallies. Go read “The Diary of Anne Frank’’, or the late Swedish film-maker Ingmar Bergman’s anguished recollections of being taken to a Nazi rally by his German host family while living abroad as a young exchange student. Faffing about on a beach to make a human sign just isn’t in the same league.

United States president-elect Barack Obama has warned the world seems poised to move from “shock to trance’’ on climate policy, dropping the ball on real action to move beyond dependence on fossil fuels. “This has been our pattern. We go from shock to trance,’’ he said in television interview. “Oil prices go up, gas prices at the pump go up, everybody goes into a flurry of activity. And then the prices go back down and suddenly we act like it’s not important, and we start filling up our SUV’s again. And, as a consequence, we never make any progress. It’s part of the addiction, all right. That has to be broken. Now is the time to break it.’’

Recently, we’ve seen the Rudd Government move to trance mode, backing away from recommendations to set a 20 per cent mid-term targert to reduce Australia’s greenhouse emissions. Tom Murphy, an economist and director of Charles Sturt University policy think-tank the Western Research Instiute has argued the government “lost its nerve’’ as a result of the global economic downturn. The government’s “disappointing’’ target of 5 per cent “fails to acknowledge the tremendous opportunity for green industries and green jobs’’ and Australia runs the risk of being left behind as the world economy “inevitably transforms to one that is significantly less carbon emitting’’ he says.

One of the reasons the re-emergence of climate scepticism is worrying – rathern than mildly irritating – is that it deflects attention from more complex issues, like the social and economic implications of climate change on Australia’s rural economies. Scepticism becomes a copycat pop- trash fashion statement, to be flaunted Paris Hilton-style.

Thankfully, Barack Obama’s new science adviser, John Holdren – a Harvard University professor of environmental science – has made his views known on “the climate-change sceptics who infest talk shows, Internet blogs, letters to the editor, op-ed pieces, and cocktail-party conversations.’’ Climate change scepticism is not just “regrettable’’ but dangerous.

“It has delayed - and continues to delay - the development of the political consensus that will be needed if society is to embrace remedies commensurate with the challenge,’’ he writes on Climate Shift blog.

“The science of climate change is telling us that we need to get going. Those who still think this is all a mistake or a hoax need to think again.’’

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Global warming deniers are a small (while vocal and deturmined) minority. A much greater number are as bad, because while they believe global warming threatens civilization, their prescription is an unfeasible scheme of carbon dieting: "Processes that would normally regulate climate are being driven to amplify warming. Such feedbacks, as well as the inertia of the Earth system — and that of our response — make it doubtful that any of the well-intentioned technical or social schemes for carbon dieting will (work). What is needed is a fundamental cure." --Dr James Lovelock --Human emissions have so far produced a global average temperature increase of 0.8 degree C. --There is another 0.6 degree C. to come due to "thermal inertia", or lags in the system, taking the total long-term global warming induced by human emissions so far to 1.4 degree C. --If human total emissions continue as they are to 2030 (and don't increase 60% as projected) this would likely add more than 0.4 degrees C. to the system in the next two decades, taking the long-term effect by 2030 to at least 1.7 degrees C. (A 0.3 degree C. increase is predicted for the period 2004-2014 alone by Smith, Cusack et al, 2007). --Then add the 0.3 degree C. albedo flip effect from the now imminent loss of the Arctic sea ice, and the rise in the system by 2030 is at least 2 degree. C, assuming very optimistically that emissions don't increase at all above their present annual rate! When we consider the potential permafrost releases and the effect of carbon sinks losing capacity, we are on the road to a hellish future, not for what we will do, but WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY DONE. "I'm going to tell you something I probably shouldn't: we may not be able to stop global warming. We need to begin curbing global greenhouse emissions right now, but more than a decade after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, the world has utterly failed to do so. Unless the geopolitics of global warming change soon, the Hail Mary pass of geoengineering might become our best shot." --Bryan Walsh, Time Magazine, 17 March 2008 "The alternative (to geoengineering) is the acceptance of a massive natural cull of humanity and a return to an Earth that freely regulates itself but in the hot state." --Dr James Lovelock, August 2008
Posted by dobermanmacleod, 29/12/2008 3:28:39 PM
I worry about the so-called 'sceptics' as depicted in the article and the climate change scaremongerers alike. The 'climate model' results seem to be every bit as believable as economic models or tarot readings. There is no debate that the world is warming; the only contentious items are the climate predictions. Not all 'sceptics' are rabid and rude, but charisma has virtually no bearing on the topic. I would not dismiss all that a 'sceptic' would have to say on the basis that they act a bit rabid. Being irate or being calm and well-mannered have absolutely nothing to do with science, knowledge, or truth. I'm sure the best confidence tricksters are charming people, but that does not make what they say any more true.
Posted by MadScientist, 30/12/2008 12:50:11 AM
Climate change skeptics have the data in their favor. The Earth has been on a cooling trend now for at least the last 7-10yrs. The Oce3ans have been cooling, and the "hot spot" predicted by simulations is no where to be found. All that the climate alarmists have in their favor are the visdeo game type simulations which aren't matching the recent cooling trend
Posted by Bob B, 30/12/2008 2:52:05 AM
All humans can't be intellectuals. There are some who actually believe there's a "guy in the sky" watching over them. The skeptics are so busy trying to puff their own chests that they miss the obvious rapid climatic changes and they feed those of us with similarly weaker brains with mis information and half truths to the detriment of all. If anyone ever deserved to be charged with "crimes against humanity" then the climate change sceptics would top my list.
Posted by stueysplace, 30/12/2008 3:01:14 AM
Hold their feet to the fire guys. All CO2 in our atmosphere is aprox .038%. Thats aprox 1/30th of 1%. Thats natural and man made together. This green house gas???? is about as trace as trace can get. Its liberal insanity, liberal vengence for the war on terror and two terms of GW Bush. Our future looks very dark with one useless war built on lies followed by another useless war built on lies.
Posted by Jay, 30/12/2008 4:35:57 AM
The tactics are similar in both the warming and cooling camps. Well, someone's lying. Watch this space and judge with the benefit of hindsight.
Posted by Edward Metcalfe, 30/12/2008 8:38:01 AM
And in the other corner ... scientists and researchers who question the very weak evidence for any human influence on climate and who, despute its irrelevance to science, also question the whether the claimed scientific consensus actually exists. These scientists who - let's be precise here - are sceptical of the claim of a significant human on climate - are treated like pariahs despite the weak evidence of the proponents. In the USA there's been calls for meteorologists who are sceptical to be dismissed from their posts and de-certified by the controlling body. There's already been professors dismissed from their university positions and recently we've learned that Gore's advisor on climate was dismissed when he said that the data did not support Gore's conclusions. (No wonder Gore's film was unsubstantiated propaganda.) In the UK David Bellamy has been sidelined for publically questioning the claims. The analogies with Nazi Germany are distasteful but highly appropriate when Belief replaces objectivity and dissent is so fervently repressed.
Posted by John, 30/12/2008 9:23:29 AM
Well said, Ms Beeby. There's an awful lot of tosh emanating from what has generously been called "the sceptic" community. This flatters them because genuine sceptics are people whose disinclination to accept theories starts from soundly collected pertinent data or soundly based objections to specific models or the inferences to be had. What we have here are naysayers whose position derives from existential angst about the kind of world they see emerging from attempts at mitigation of GHG emissions. They are like Mr Horse of Ren and Stimpy: "No sir, I don't like it!". They pretend that the world can continue as it is, when even they know that it cannot, on resource depletion, pollution or energy security (if not climate change) grounds. They are old and indifferent to the future. They fancy that they can hang on to life as it is and not live long enough to see disaster or be held accountable. A number of activists will be gathering in Canberra to make the case for robust action over New Year. Perhaps we will see you there.
Posted by Franb, 30/12/2008 9:41:31 AM
Comparing climate change protagonists with Nazis is truly absurd. There is a religosity to the belief that humans are the cause however. ...mean while back on Mars the ice caps have shrunk. hmmmm? Not many humans on Mars. Though if you think this implies that climate change is not occuring on Earth you are incorrect. It is infact occuring just not by human induced means. There is a great big star in our solar system and it is being ignored for some bizarre reason. And, if you think this therefore implies we humans should not control our global environmental plunder and polution ways, then you'd be wrong about that too. The evidence of melting Mars ice caps is a very 'inconvenient truth' indeed. It is always much easier to scare compliance out of self interested beasts like humans than to rely on their good will and sense.
Posted by venus, 30/12/2008 10:34:09 AM
The brainwashed lemmings seem ready to sacrifice themselves rather than to see the truth -- man-made global warming is a HOAX. If not stopped, the global warming scam will enrich the scammers (Gore and Obama’ Wall Street friends), increase the power of the U.N. and Marxists like Obama, and multiply poverty and servitude for the rest of us. The more than 650 international scientists who dissent over man-made global warming claims are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers. Additionally, more than 31,000 American scientists have signed onto a petition that states, “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate…” http://www.pr-inside.com/the-peti tion-contains-the-signature s-of-r613239.htm The mainstream media, that seems to be manipulated by U.S. enemies like George Soros, is NOT reporting the opinions of scientists who believe global warming is a hoax. It is CRIMINAL to force us to swallow the global warming hoax, which will increase unemployment, poverty and dependence.
Posted by Antonio Sosa, 30/12/2008 10:40:01 AM
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Monkey Wrench
Rosslyn Beeby is science and environment reporter with The Canberra Times. She writes about the lighter and darker shades of green issues.
'SHOCK AND TRANCE': Barack Obama
'SHOCK AND TRANCE': Barack Obama

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