Photo: Louie Douvis.

Photo: Louie Douvis.

Comment: The Reserve Bank of Australia still has rates on hold, but it's something that doesn't get mentioned in its latest statement that will probably decide when it does move, and in what direction.

Compared to recent statements, there are a few changes in the RBA's tone for June.

It has gone from observing in May that the $A is stubbornly high to complaining mildly about it.

It has gone from predicting a month ago that low rates will trigger a strong rise in housing construction activity to stating that that the lift in activity has begun.

What it doesn't have anything to say about however, is consumer confidence, which has become the ''x-factor'' for the economy after the release of Joe Hockey's ''horror budget''.

The Reserve says consumer demand has been growing modestly, but that probably won't continue if the budget hit to confidence is sustained.

There are no clues from the central bank about whether or not that will happen, as you would expect.

Under the leadership of governor Glenn Stevens the Reserve hasn't held off in the past from moving rates at politically sensitive times.

Buying into a debate about the impact of the Abbott government's first budget before the economic evidence would be another thing entirely however.

The Reserve has wisely stayed clear.