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MacBank taps rich form line to predict Cup winner

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Early Melbourne Cup odds

Daniel Sankey is joined by Alan Eskander and Andrew Eddy to get the lowdown on the Cup form.

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After successfully predicting the outcome of the past three Melbourne Cup races, Macquarie Bank's equities research department has forecast that Dunaden, winner of the 2011 event, will win the race again this year.

"Last year we made it three successful years in a row as Dunaden edged out Red Cadeaux by the closest of margins," wrote John Conomos and Francis Lim. "Can we get four in a row?"

Based on modelling designed for choosing investments and tweaked to reflect the variables of each race, last year's Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden is most likely to win in 2012, the Macquarie analysts wrote.

Dunaden ... Macquarie analysts' pick for the 2012 Melbourne Cup.

Dunaden ... Macquarie analysts' pick for the 2012 Melbourne Cup. Photo: Getty Images

"Dunaden comes out on top with Kelinni, Maluckyday and Lights of Heaven close behind," the analysts wrote.

After Lights of Heaven comes Americain, the winner of the 2010 Melbourne Cup, and Galileo's Choice.

Macquarie said the strength of the dollar was attracting foreign horses to this year's race, as it had last year. In order to find the winner, the bankers focused on average prize money per race in order to rank the horses on the kind of yield they paid out.

Macquarie Bank analysts, and the world, will know whether Dunaden can pull it off again, at 3pm AEDT, when the Melbourne Cup is run.

And if you’d like to know which horses not to bet on, the anaylsts have prepared a list of the least likely. Stay away from Unusual Suspect, Tax de Boistron, Winchester, Zabeelionaire, Precedence, Niwot.

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