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Markets Live: ASX has best week since February

Date

Shares have locked in three days of gains recording the best week in more than four months

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That's it for Markets Live today.

Thanks for reading and for your comments.

See you again at 9 on Monday.

Market reaction to surprise attempts by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens to talk down the dollar appeared short-lived on Friday as the currency remained steady after its half a cent drop on Thursday.

Friday afternoon the dollar was buying US93.65¢, halting a decline which began on Thursday when Mr Stevens made unexpectedly pointed comments about its strength during a speech in Tasmania. In December he indicated he would like to see the dollar closer to US85¢ .

Given commodity price weakness would continue to erode Australia’s terms of trade, most models “would say [the dollar] is overvalued, and not just by a few cents,” he said.

Traders immediately sold the currency, driving it down more than 1 per cent from US94.37¢. It stabilised on Friday and most analysts expect it to continue the rebound when United States markets return to normal after the Independence Day long weekend.

Read more

Australian shares started the new financial year with their biggest weekly rise since February, after Friday marked the first time the market had posted a three day winning streak since May. The local bourse was buoyed by an increasingly positive outlook for growth in both the United States and China.

Both the S&P / ASX 200 and the broader All Ordinaries Index gained 1.5 per cent over the week to close at 5525 points and 5511.8 points respectively, as the Reserve Bank of Australia elected on Tuesday to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5 per cent.

The benchmark index added 0.6 per cent on Friday peeking above 5500 points for the first time in a month, after following a positive lead from Wall St where an upbeat US labour market report propelled the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh record highs.

Read more

A column from Michael Pascoe on the Commonwealth Bank financial planning scandal:

"In the occasional way of these things, the Commonwealth Bank’s response to scandal has become a greater scandal.

Just as corporate cover-ups time and again cause more damage than the original mistakes, it’s not the rogue traders who have shown the CBA leadership to be incompetent.

In years to come, business schools will study the CBA financial planning story as a case study of how not to handle a scandal, of how a fabulously wealthy and important corporation can suffer such a monumental attack of hubris over the damage that a gross failure of governance principles can do to a bank, and what a waste of money it is to pay people many millions of dollars and expect them to be able to operate without close supervision and constant challenging."

Read more

The S&P/ASX 200 Index has closed at 5525, up 33.75 points or 0.6 per cent.

For the week, shares are up 1.47 per cent, the biggest weekly rise since February 21 when the benchmark added 1.54 per cent.

It is the first time since May 26 that the ASX 200 has notched up three successive days of gains.

There is no trading in the United States tonight for the July 4 holiday.

Best and worst at the close

Best and worst at the close

QBE Insurance Group shares are on a tear, up 4.6 per cent ahead of the close to $11.57. Volume is more than double yesterday's turnover.

QBE shares over one month

QBE shares over one month

More from Smart Money on whether it is time to reduce portfolio risk:

Schroders head of fixed income and multi-asset Simon Doyle has been involved in financial markets for more than 25 years and thinks now is the time to reduce the risk in your portfolio.

Doyle says the risk of losing money in shares has been rising so much over the past few years that it’s reached the point that, since 1992, there has only been one period when the chance of losing money was higher.

That was during 2006 and 2007, in the lead up to the global financial crisis. Back then, investors had enjoyed four years of double-digit growth from the local sharemarket, but became too carefree. Doyle fears investors have become complacent again.

It’s one reason why he says that if investors were starting to invest from scratch today and didn’t have any set benchmarks, they should have no more than 28 per cent of their portfolio in shares – made up of 15 per cent in local shares and 13 per cent in global shares.

Read more

 

The ANZ bank's attempt to break the link between the Reserve bank rate moves and its own mortgage rates has come to a grinding halt. 

"Effective from today, ANZ will announce the outcome of its monthly review by the Friday following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting," ANZ Australia chief executive Philip Chronican said

The decision comes two and a half years after the ANZ engaged in a public relations campaign that aimed to distance itself from the decisions of the RBA.

In 2011, Mr Chonican said there was "a fairly tenuous link between the Reserve Bank cash rate and the cost of funds of a variable rate mortgage, and yet we're all stuck in the same routine of waiting for an RBA cash rate move before we move".

Read more

Lodestar Minerals has responded to a price query from the ASX, saying it does not know why its shares have surged.

The junior is trading at 2.6 cents today, up 53 per cent, after gaining 31 per cent yesterday.

Lodestar Minerals shares over one year

Lodestar Minerals shares over one year

Markets columnist Phil Baker questions how much longer the Dow can keep climbing:

"Over the past year the S&P 500 has reached a fresh record high at some stage every single month so it’s not surprising if financial markets are getting a little blasé about broken records.

But the Dow Jones closing above 17,000 for the very first time and the S&P 500 on the cusp of 2000 for the first time are milestones and need to be acknowledged.

For sure they are just nice big round numbers too but if sharemarkets are a forward-looking indicator of the health of an economy then the future is looking good. For now.

The ride to 17,000 for the Dow took 153 trading sessions after it first closed above 16000 on November 21, 2013, which means its the seventh-fastest, 1000-point gain for the blue chip index."

Read more

David Jones will attempt to head off further intervention in Woolworths’s $2.2 billion takeover by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission by trying to convince the regulator that shareholders are fully informed and that the board is acting in their best interests.

David Jones’s board is alarmed at the last minute intervention by ASIC and believes the corporate regulator could be doing more harm than good by raising concerns about a multi-million dollar inducement or collateral benefits to rag trader Solomon Lew.

The board fears that ASIC’s intervention could derail the David Jones scheme of arrangement, potentially depriving shareholders of Woolworths’ $4 a share offer, or further delay the scheme, which has already been postponed for two weeks.

Based on the time value of money, every week the $2.2 billion offer is delayed costs shareholders $1.7 million.

Read more

 

Gas firm Metgasco has taken action in the Supreme Court to restore a coal seam gas drilling license that the NSW government cancelled because of an “escalation of opposition” by protesters.

Metgasco says NSW Energy Minister Anthony Roberts has encouraged protesters to attack other fields by his decision on May 15 to suspend a license for a single exploration well at Rosella on an unused quarry on the NSW North Coast, even though the well was considered safe.

Metgasco managing director Peter Henderson said Mr Roberts was “delegating decisions on resource development to protesters” and the High Court decision could be crucial for Santos and AGL, which could also face protests against their bigger gas projects in NSW.

Read more

Over at Smart Money, Debra Cleveland interviews financial planners about how to manage the crippling cost of private schooling and household finances.

"What’s the cost of school fees in your household? I don’t mean the actual cost of what you’re paying – if anything – but whether paying for your children’s education is dominating your finances and causing you financial stress.

A conversation I had with a fellow dinner guest a few weeks ago haunted me for days. Her three daughters are at top Melbourne private schools, both she and her husband work full-time and she hates her job. Her husband is also unhappy at work but feels powerless to make a change because the couple is so focused on seeing their girls through the very best schools they can send them to.

But at what price? Family life seems stressed, time-poor and hemmed in by decisions that leave the parents feeling they have little choice."

Read more

 

Here's how the All Ords are faring mid-way through the session.

New entrant ZipTel is having a horror start to life on the bourse, trading at 20 cents a share on debut. It floated at 50 cents apiece.

All Ordinaries winners and losers

All Ordinaries winners and losers

Quickflix has imported a former Fox executive for its board in a bid to improve the company’s long term prospects, one month after board members survived a spill by shareholders.

The company has appointed David Smith – a Hollywood executive with 20 years experience in licensing and acquiring subscription content who was previously the vice president of Twentieth Century Fox Television Distribution – to its board as a non-executive director.

Here's one for our intrepid reader who requested a mortgage arrears chart in a historical context. 

Residential loan performance by state

Residential loan performance by state

Ten Network Holdings, which is weighing a possible sale, is so cheap that acquirers can buy the television company for less than the value of its broadcasting license.

After a string of programming flops and two years of losses, Ten is working with Citigroup on options that may include seeking a buyer, people familiar with the matter said. The Australian Financial Review reported last month that buyout firms were considering bidding for the broadcaster, whose shares have languished below $1 for more than three years.

An acquirer may be able to rebuild Ten's audience by buying rights to air more sports. The company's license alone is worth 13 percent more than its $697 million market value, Credit Suisse analysts pointed out. As the Abbott government considers easing media ownership rules, suitors also might include Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., said research firm Morningstar Inc.

"It could be a very good deal and a very astute bit of timing for a would-be buyer," said Greg Smith, head of research at Fat Prophets. "It only takes a couple of big hits to get things right back on track."

Read more

Channel Ten's now defunct Wake Up program

Channel Ten's now defunct Wake Up program

Store closures have begun at the financially troubled Crazy Clarks discount chain, putting 111 employees out of work.

More jobs will go as another 33 stores look likely to close in the coming weeks.

Discount Super Group (DSG), the owner of Crazy Clarks and Sam’s Warehouse, was placed in adminstration on Tuesday, and its receivers plan to sell the profitable stores in order to fund an estimated $10 million in entitlements owed to workers.

Unprofitable stores will close, however, and the first 10 will be shut down from Friday, affecting 111 staff, most of whom are casual workers.

This is another take on the regional mortgage arrears trend.

Residential loan performance by region

Residential loan performance by region

We posted this morning on the worst performing postcode in Australia for mortgage arrears. Here's more analysis from Fitch, looking at the data from a regional perspective.

10 worst performing Australian regions

10 worst performing Australian regions

Discovery Metals has copped a price query from the ASX. It does not know why its shares are up but points to its appointment of a corporate advisor for a proposed recapitalisation on June 26.

The microcap is up 60 per cent today to 5.9 cents and surged 42 per cent yesterday to 3.7 per cent.

Discovery's share price, three days

Discovery's share price, three days

More positive news around the UK economy: The Guardian reports that Ryanair is restarting British domestic services, with daily flights from Glasgow and Edinburgh to London starting in the autumn.

The Irish airline abandoned internal flights three years ago but believes a changing market and its own focus on business passengers makes the routes viable.

Ryanair is back in the domestic market

Ryanair is back in the domestic market Photo: Reuters

Investors like Steadfast Group's acquisition of Allied Insurance Group in New Zealand. Shares are up 2.6 per cent to $1.36 today.

Allied generated NZ$172 million of gross written premiums in 2013-14 but Steadfast did not disclose a purchase price.

Australian global roaming start-up ZipTel will debut on the Australian Securities Exchange on Friday as part of its campaign to take on global technology giants including Skype and Viber.

ZipTel is a Perth-based company that offers cheap pre-paid SIM cards for phone and internet users that travel abroad under the brand name AussieSim. The service comes with call forwarding to allow customers to receive calls that would have gone to their Australian number while overseas.

But ZipTel’s move into the roaming market comes as Telstra, SingTel-Optus and Vodafone Hutchison Australia all push hard to cut the cost of getting telco services abroad.

In May, ZipTel raised $5 million as part of a push to boost awareness of its brand and commercialise its telecommunications products, which have been in development for more than two years. It is using the shell of an ASX company formerly known as Skywards.

Read more

 

One of Australia’s largest fund managers has echoed concerns about a squeeze in the bond market as more investors pile into fixed income while brokers retreat.

The $75 billion Brisbane-based fund QIC says that as more investors shift funds to higher yielding bonds in the expectation that markets will remain in a state of calm for longer, the risks in the bond market could be building.

The Financial Times recently reported that the Federal Reserve was considering imposing exit fees on bond funds to stem a possible rush for the door from retail bond investors, should their investments plunge in value.

Katrina King, a director of QIC’s Global Liquid Strategies unit, says the fund is concerned by the withdrawal of “prop trading and the ability of banks to act as buffers poses risks for the bond markets”,

“We are looking at the consequence of bank regulation for intermediation and what that means for markets,” Ms King said.

Read more

BHP Billiton president of marketing Mike Henry says the dramatic 31 per cent fall in the iron ore price this year has not come as a surprise, and the world’s largest miner is tipping further volatility in the spot price in the months ahead.

“The decline in iron ore prices wasn’t unexpected for us ... what we’re seeing today in the marketplace is within the range of expectations that we’ve had,” Mr Henry said.

The iron ore industry has endured a rollercoaster 12 months. The final quarter of the financial year saw the commodity fall to 21-month lows at $US89 ($92), with the bulk metal plummeting by nearly a third this year.

It has recovered in the last few days to trade at $US94.70 on Thursday.

Read more

Fresh research from Barclays on the global airport sector highlights the opportunity of China outbound tourism.

"While income growth is slowing in China, we see the potential for looser Chinese domestic and overseas regulations to actually spur a near-term acceleration in travel. First, passport penetration in China in May 2012 was only 38 million, less than 3 per cent of the total population and growing at 20 per cent per annum, according to Xinhua News (16 May 2012). In addition, as countries vie for Chinese tourism dollars we expect to see further visa liberalisation for Chinese travellers globally," the analysts write.

"Chinese outbound travel is likely to be an important, multi-decade structural theme in global airport investing. However, around this theme we highlight that Chinese travel patterns can be highly volatile in the short-term. The vast majority of Chinese international travel currently is to close proximity countries in Asia."

China tourism analysis

China tourism analysis

JPMorgan has upgraded its price target on Corporate Travel Management to $6.90 from $5.80, holding on to its "overweight" recommendation after an acquisition in the US market which will increase its exposure to clients in the oil and gas sector.

"We believe CTD is still gaining share from multinational corporations. Acquisitions in North America help CTD to grow its global business and thus be considered for more global mandates. As it grows, we believe EBITDA margins will expand from generating more overrides and increased productivity of staff," says the broker.

Hartleys has downgraded manufactured accommodation provider Fleetwood Corp to "reduce" and cut its price target to $1.62.

"We have cut our FY14 and FY15 EPS forecasts by 60 per cent and 29 per cent respectively. Given the uncertain outlook for large parts of FWD’s underlying business, thus making forecasting difficult, we have reduced our numbers towards the bottom end of consensus earnings... Given where the peer group trades we find it hard to justify FWD’s current valuation even assuming EPS doubles in FY15," the broker says.

Deutsche Bank has initiated coverage of dual-listed New Zealand power generator Genesis Energy with a “buy” recommendation and target price of $NZ2.12.  The stock last closed at $NZ1.78.

The former New Zealand government business, which was floated in April, is tipped to be a stable earner with a good yield, Deutsche Bank analyst Grant Swanepoel said. Shares are currently trading 16 per cent above the offer price.  

"In our view it offers investors a potential one year total return of 26.3 per cent,” Mr Swanepoel said.

Fuel management will be key to the company’s success, Mr Swanepoel said.

Mr Swanepoel also noted the stock offers “an attractive” 9 per cent fully imputed FY15 dividend yield.

Morningstar has initiated coverage of the newly restructured international arm of the Lowy family shopping mall empire, now trading as Westfield Corporation, with an “accumulate” recommendation and fair value estimate of $8 per share. The stock last closed at $7.20.

“We consider the stock slightly undervalued, trading about 10 per cent below our valuation. The proforma 2014 distribution of US24.6 cents offers a yield of about 3.8 per cent based on the current security price. The modest yield reflects a payout ratio of 65 per cent as the business retains cash to fund its substantial development pipeline,” Morningstar analyst Tony Sherlock said.

On Friday, Morningstar also downgraded its recommendations on a handful of stocks due to recent price gains:

Patties Foods, downgraded from “accumulate” to “hold”.

NIB Holdings, downgraded from “accumulate” to “hold”. 

Bradken, downgraded from “accumulate” to “hold”.

Brickworks, downgraded from “hold” to “reduce”. 

The S&P/ASX 200 Index has opened 0.55 per cent higher.

Lynas appears to have reversed two days of heavy losses and is leading the index this morning.

Winners and losers at the open

Winners and losers at the open

Constellation sales trends

Constellation sales trends

Deutsche Bank looks at Constellation Brands' results for some insight on Treasury Wine Estates and finds the United States wine market is still a tough place to operate.

"Conditions in the US wine market remain tough with weak underlying volumes and lack of price growth in the mid market. Pricing at the value and luxury ends has improved somewhat and grape costs have stabilised but we expect TWE’s US business to remain challenged," the broker says.

Some provocative thoughts from Sean Keane at Triple T Consulting on Glenn Stevens and how some trades were wrong footed by the inconsistency of the RBA policy statement on Tuesday and the governor's speech on Thursday: "Unfortunately many shrimp have crossed the Australian barbie since Tuesday, and few people were left prepared for [Thursday's] comments. Some had gone the other way on positioning following Tuesdays RBA no-show.

"Just two days after that clear signalling opportunity Governor Stevens appears to have now decided to deliver a different set of comments to the market about the Bank's views on FX and interest rates. These comments are the ones that traders had expected to hear on Tuesday."

Broker CIMB has increased its target price on Sirtex Medical to $12.52 from $12.15. The target price implies a price-earnings ratio of 26 times 2014-15 forecast earnings.

Sirtex shares closed at $17.64 on Thursday and CIMB's rating is "reduce".

Sirtex Medical sales growth

Sirtex Medical sales growth

Westpac thinks sometimes the market's singular focus on resources exports fails to recognise the importance of services exports to the economy such as education and tourism.

"Australia used to run a 'surplus' on tourism but as AUD/USD rose through US90 cents in 2007, the surge of Australians holidaying abroad overtook the flattening trend in tourist arrivals, a gap which has become very large and persistent. On the positive side, tourist numbers into Australia have resumed a decent up trend since 2011. But so long as AUD/USD remains so far above its post-float average of US76 cents, holidays abroad will remain very attractive to millions of Australians. So too Australian education providers will find price competition from foreign rivals very fierce."

Markets are now pricing in a 50 per cent chance of a rate cut by year-end on the back of the RBA currency bombshell yesterday.

Tourism trends and the Australian dollar

Tourism trends and the Australian dollar

From BusinessDay columnist Adele Ferguson on the financial planning scandal:

It took the threat of a royal commission and intense pressure from Finance Minister Mathias Cormann to get the Commonwealth Bank boss Ian Narev to ''unreservedly'' apologise to the thousands of customers who fell victim to dodgy financial advice inside the bank's financial planning division.

Narev blamed a culture of ''defensiveness'' for the apology taking more than a year after Fairfax Media exposed the scandal inside the bank and almost six years since bank whistleblower Jeff Morris informed the corporate regulator.

On Thursday he outlined a plan to reopen its compensation offer to any customer who feels they might have fallen victim to unscrupulous advice between 2003 and 2012.

The process will kick off in August but the devil will be in the detail. How many customers might be affected or the estimated cost per claim is anyone's guess. Narev declined to share the bank's estimated assessment on the basis he didn't believe it would be material.

Read more

Wall Street stocks have closed at new records, with the Dow crossing 17,000 after surprisingly robust US jobs growth pointed to a stronger economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 92.02 points (0.54 per cent) to 17,068.26, while the S&P 500 gained 10.82 (0.55 per cent) to 1,985.44.    

Both indices closed at records highs for the third straight session.

The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 28.19 (0.63 per cent) to 4,485.93.

The Labor Department said the US economy added a healthy 288,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 per cent from 6.3 per cent in May.The solid jobs data drove stocks higher in a holiday-shortened session that closed three hours early. Stocks markets are closed Friday for Independence Day.

‘‘The market is applauding the strong jobs number and the signs that it shows economic growth is in fact returning as we expected after there was a weather-related slowdown in the first quarter,’’ said David Levy, portfolio manager at Kenjol Capital Management.

Read more

Credit ratings agency Fitch has identified the New South Wales central coast town of Budgewoi as the worst performing postcode in Australia for missed mortgage payments. Its delinquency rate (for payments more than 30 days overdue) is 3.7 per cent.

"Budgewoi has been among the 20 worst performing postcodes each March and September over the five years since March 2009, with the exception of September 2012, but until now, has never been the worst performing suburb in Australia. Surfers Paradise, in Queensland, was previously the worst performing postcode, however has slowly improved from a rebound in the Gold Coast housing market," the Fitch report says.

"On average, the delinquency rate across Australia increased to 1.35 per cent at end-March 2014, up from 1.24 per cent at end-September 2013."

Worst performing postcodes

Worst performing postcodes

Local stocks are poised to open higher as Wall St rallied on a much stronger than expected June jobs report.

What you need2know:

SPI futures up 27 points to 5480 

• AUD at 93.47 US cents, 95.50 Japanese yen, 68.68 Euro cents and 54.58 British pence.

• On Wall St, S&P 500 +0.6%, Dow +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.6%

• In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, FTSE +0.7%, CAC +1%, DAX +1.2%

• Iron ore jumps 1.9% to $US96.50 per metric tonne

• Spot gold down 0.5% to $US1319.88 an ounce

• Brent oil down 0.1% to $US111.09 per barrel

What’s on today

Australia: June new car sales;

US: Wall St will be closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Read more

Good morning and welcome to Markets Live.

Your editor today is Vesna Poljak.

This blog is not intended as investment advice.

Quotes Search

Sort comments by:
  • "Just as corporate cover-ups time and again cause more damage than the original mistakes, it’s not the rogue traders who have shown the CBA leadership to be incompetent."

    Amazing they can pay themselves multi million dollar salaries and still be incompetent.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 5:03PM
  • "CBA: a case study in failure"

    No not a failure, they achieved what they set out to achieve: rip off pensioners and mum and dad investors and reward themselves handsomely for doing it.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 5:02PM
  • LOL 1.7%, bulls wetting themselves. CBA $90 yet?

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 4:57PM
  • People are saying the stock market is going great but my portfolio is still in the red years after I went long. I was put into some "blue chip" Aussie stocks years ago:

    AMP: $21.99 in the year 2000
    Telstra: $9.16 in 1999
    Fortescue: $12.13 in 2008
    Boart Longyear: $21.78 in 2007
    ABC Learning: How much are they worth now?
    Babcock & Brown: How much are they worth now?
    HIH: How much are they worth now?
    Forge Group: How much are they worth now?

    Commenter
    Concerned Investor
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 4:49PM
    • look forward not back
      johnny come lately

      Commenter
      Unconcerned Realist
      Location
      here and there
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 5:01PM
    • Lucky you didn't have any commercial property trusts. Most smashed and still frozen or bankrupt.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 5:05PM
    • I suspect you're trolling but if that was actually your portfolio you have been very unlucky. Ever heard the term "take profits"?

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 5:05PM
  • Australia's booming. Booming I tell you. AUDUSD 0.9365. AUDJPY 95.57

    Commenter
    Bellhop
    Location
    5 & dime Motel
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 4:35PM
  • MBN...get outta town...another 83%

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 4:00PM
  • Another great week for the shorters, weak bounce, low volume. Loving it! What a great country, overpriced market so easy to short.

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 3:58PM
    • Sure, I believe you.
      You must be loaded.

      Commenter
      Dicky Fuld
      Location
      Anyone seen Allan from Prahran?
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 4:28PM
  • @346pm comment yeah yeah talk it down
    Reality is you gotta dig deeper for bargains,plenty to choose from and do your research,mugs game buying in high just to start...but build slowly and get in the dips, sell at the peaks...starting now more difficult for sure but with the diversity of stocks to choose,go on have a go.but be wary and only dip the toes to start,bout it,avagoodweekend all,hopefully left the table with more that ya shirt [or shorts]this week?Cheers

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 3:54PM
  • Re the ANZ changing announcement of time of rate moves relative to the RBA: A cynic would say that it suited the bank to delay when the rates were going down. It now suits the bank not to delay when the rates are going up. How much does the decisions put into their coffers?

    Commenter
    Allen
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 3:49PM
  • NAB +1.56% The market likes the thought of it off loading some of its assets.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/nab-thinking-about-offloading-custody-assets-20140701-3b6i8.html
    Best div of the big 4 banks also.

    Commenter
    It's All About Making Money
    Location
    Lennox Hd
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 3:41PM
    • Great 6% from the bank vs 20-30% shorting the market. Hmmm...

      Commenter
      LMAO!
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 4:30PM
  • CBA short 81.05

    Commenter
    Bear
    Location
    Lure
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 3:09PM
  • That's the flattest day chart I've seen for a long time. May be an indication that everyone's settled in for the new year and unlikely to do anything too drastic for a while. I wouldn't expect a surge or a decline on Monday - probably more of the same for the next week.

    Commenter
    Gareth
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 2:41PM
  • QBE on a nice little run today i hope it can keep heading north for a while.

    Commenter
    Rabbit
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 2:33PM
  • Can't wait for my $38620.00 on Tuesday 8th .... thanks NAB

    Commenter
    Buffett
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 2:31PM
    • Correction: $386.20.

      Commenter
      Buffett
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 5:09PM
  • Ed, have I missed something on QBE. This is its biggest move in recent times. Currently Up 5% There are no announcements re QBE. ?

    Commenter
    Pistol Pete
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 2:28PM
  • The article at 2:01 about the financial and lifestyle pain endured by parents in working to send their kids to private schools. Most of the Lieberal front bench went to private schools. Do we really need to inflict more of them on the community. Send the kids to public schools so that they grow up mixing with their future constituents and find out what life is really about.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 2:28PM
  • Best summer I can remember in Eu
    As i wander I wonder at the huge amount of industry in Austra France Germany
    Producing real stuff
    And then i look at Qld with its tyre shops
    Why? Because of their edu system, tech schools
    Wbc other day just a 1000upplus770

    Commenter
    stu
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 2:12PM
    • Golden rule of Mittelstand business: never supply more than 20% to one customer no matter how much they beg you.

      Golden rule of Australian business: flog it off as fast as possible, bid up house prices to bubble levels.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 4:04PM
  • FMG was $13 now 67%. Ouch.

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:54PM
  • How come the USA unemployment rate is lower than ours and they spent $4 trillion on two wars and we had the biggest mining boom in history?

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:46PM
    • USA! USA! USA!

      Record high- check.

      ASK up three days in a row- check.

      Housing Boom!- check

      Commenter
      LMAO!
      Location
      the 2nd he he
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:54PM
    • In short, they've got a lower minimum wage and lower (and time-limited) unemployment benefits.

      Commenter
      Dr No
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:56PM
    • Below poverty-line minimum wage might have something to do with it.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:57PM
    • Good for the USA. Too bad the ASK is still 30% down.

      Commenter
      LMAO!
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:07PM
    • Housing Boom!- check

      What a great country we live in.
      Loving the weather, b-e-a-uitful!
      ASx is up, property prices are up, rents are up, the suns out.

      Commenter
      LMAO!
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:13PM
  • FMG bounce up to 18%.

    Commenter
    CEO
    Location
    FMG
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:46PM
    • RRL matching that 18% rebound as well.
      Beef the next big thing?

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:55PM
    • Almost time to reload shorts.

      Commenter
      LAMO!
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:12PM
  • Back in 2007 FMG was @ $10 and got suckered in by Charlie Aitken spruiking his mate's company.

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:45PM
  • I haven't posted any trades but I'm up just believe it. Bought CBA for $5 20 years ago.

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:42PM
  • We chased our pleasures here
    Dug our treasures there
    But can you still recall
    The time we cried
    Break on through to the other side
    Break on through to the other side

    Commenter
    Jimbo
    Location
    The Otherside of 5500
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:39PM
  • An excellent interview with Dr.Benn Steil (author of "The Battle of Bretton Woods") with Dave McAlvany. It's a good synopsis of where we came from, and possibly where we're going with regard to the international monetary setup

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw2j71Yu5Rg

    Commenter
    Bye Bye Fiat Money
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:38PM
  • I'm getting 7% on a 5-year TD with Rabo risk-free. Stocks have to be cheap to beat that"

    Sorry Mitch, I don't agree that a 5year TD with 'rabid' is somehow 'risk free'.
    Are 'rabid' GUARANTEED to still have their doors open in 5 years when you want your capital back? If not, how is that possibly 'risk free' by definition?

    Commenter
    Market Analyst
    Location
    Richmond
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 1:07PM
    • http://www.apra.gov.au/CrossIndustry/Documents/ADI%20Financial%20Claims%20Scheme%20FAQ%2001%2002%2012.pdf

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:30PM
    • Mitch means that there is no risk to his projected returns which are fixed, whereas they would fluctuate with shares. It is trite to point out that corporate solvency is a risk, as that is a risk with any share and even property has sovereign risk.

      Commenter
      FANATICAL
      Location
      NWT
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:30PM
    • In the unlikely event of an Australian bank failing the gov't would likely invite or coerce one of the Big 4 to take it over and would waive the regulatory obstacles. Failure to do so would see a run on all banks.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:33PM
    • @Fanatical, if a bank did fail I would likely get the amount deposited back under the bank guarantee but the interest accrued on that deposit would probably be lost. Let's hope we never find out how it would all work in practice.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:37PM
    • If you did it a few years ago, you'll have the Australian Federal Government guarantee of deposits up to $1M. It's now up to 250k. She'll be right!

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:49PM
    • here here to that Mitch.. somethings are better left untouched

      Commenter
      mannyB
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:55PM
    • HINT if you have a largish amount to be placed on Term Deposit for an extended period break it up into multiple TDs. That way if you need cash in a hurry you don't have to break the whole TD, just 1 or more. Breaking a TD means that you lose the high interest rate.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:02PM
    • Rabo website isn't advertising anything like 7% for 5 year TD. Must be non-retail.

      Commenter
      One Percenters
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:37PM
    • @One percenter. Taken out in April 2011. You have to keep an eye out for the good deals. In the depths of the GFC I was getting 8.05% with a 3-year TD from Suncorp, interest paid quarterly.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:47PM
    • Agree and it's probably due to expire next week.

      Commenter
      Peter
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 3:50PM
  • The post @12:44pm is the canary in the coal mine for retail and the economy. When discount retailers are going broke you know that the ordinary consumer is doing it tough. May's poor retail sales numbers are just the beginning of a Budget-inspired contraction. How soon before that poor retail data starts to impact on the retail property trusts that derive rents as a % of turnover. I'm already seeing early signs but part of that could be due to the ex-div factor as those trusts pay distributions that went ex-div on 26th June.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:54PM
  • "Melbourne developers have been given a dressing down by the city council for dubious skyscraper designs, including a windowless room proposal that lord mayor Robert Doyle compared to ''just very small cupboards''.

    A windowless bedroom half the size of a carpark? No problem sleep standing up and double your money.

    Commenter
    Pollyanna
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:53PM
  • What an amazing three days.

    Unfortunate for all those confidently talking about the market like they knew nothing, as the market did the exact opposite to their predictions.

    LMAO!

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:49PM
  • Ed's: All this data on arrears by region would actually be put in better context if you could see if historically a) what the average "worst" arrears percentage of all regions is (ie. is 3% actually that bad compared to the last 30 years?) and b) for those regions listed, what the the average over the last 30 years in terms of arrears.

    Commenter
    DR
    Location
    syd
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:41PM
  • ASX200 - 5527 and holding beautifully!

    Not the time to short @ Lib,I think your mother of all shorts this week at 5443 must be causing a bit of pain!

    Commenter
    Mister5100
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:40PM
  • Weren't we here in 2006 and 2013?

    Commenter
    Pollyana
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:28PM
    • Does this rally upset you? It seems like it upsets you. I on the other hand couldn't be happier. Loading up on the way down has turned out to be quite rewarding, I can only imagine reloading shorts on FMG wouldn't be as rewarding. But without being a downer, it's a lovely day outside, time for a run through the best city in the world! Sydney! Oh cheer up, its just a three day rally, could be worse could be four days in a row!

      Housing Boom!

      Commenter
      Pollyana
      Location
      wanna cracker
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:56PM
  • When the iconic CBA brand was being haemorrhaged last week, we hear that the CEO and the Chairman of the bank were holidaying in idyllic locations in Indonesia and the UK respectively. This speaks volumes about their concerns and well being of the common man in Australia . Conbank CAN scam you of all your life savings and get away scot free with not a single individual being jailed so far and better still get to keep the millions in bonues that they robbed from the innocent masses. Hats off to SMH and the Fairfax team for exposing these parasites for what they are.

    Commenter
    AK
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 12:06PM
  • So now Labor is arguing China should have complete unrestricted access to our economy. Of course Australia would never get the same in return.

    Anyone who thinks there is a difference between Labor and the Liberals is kidding themselves. Both are free market fundamentalists desperate to sell every last scrap of this country.

    Commenter
    Fred
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 11:39AM
  • I'm going to give the bears a schooling. Today's class: Mathematics.

    Source of data: S&P/ASX 200 Net Total Return Index
    The index shows an increase from 16779 on 01/05/2002 to 45,414 on 04/07/2014.

    The equation to calculate the effect of continuously compounding interest is as follows:

    P = Ce^(rt)
    P = Future value = 45,414
    C = Initial value = 16,779
    e = exponential function
    ^ = to the power of function
    r = interest rate = unknown
    t = time in years = 12.17 years

    rearranging the equation to give the unknown interest rate we get:
    r = [ln (P/C)] / t
    where ln = natural logarithmic function

    Solving for r, we get a value of 0.082

    Therefore if you had followed the S&P/ASX 200 since 2002, and reinvested your dividends, you would have had an average compounding annual return rate of 8.2% every year.

    http://i.imgur.com/vRqD3Ai.png

    Commenter
    MLJ
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 11:33AM
    • That's fine in theory. Reality is somewhat different. The index powers on because those that went bust, eg Babcock & Brown, ABC Learning, ION and a host of others are conveniently removed. Your equation needs to include factors for corporate wipe-outs and recapitalisations, eg the banks during the GFC.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:49AM
    • With a standard deviation of 13% p.a. and a sharpe ratio 0.28, that 8.20% annual return is actually pretty terrible.

      Commenter
      JM
      Location
      Melb
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:49AM
    • You are towing the spruikers line about investment returns based on the index.
      Flaw in their argument is that many companies that were in the index back in 2002 are no longer, or in administration. The assumption is that you were somehow able to get out of these companies without losing money, and then magically invest in the future companies that now make up the index.
      Yes if your portfolio was 50% CBA and 50% CSL then you are a winner, otherwise returns are nowhere near the salesmen's hype. Remember when NAB was our biggest bank and well over $40.

      Commenter
      Reality Check
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:03PM
    • It does include these things just as it would the dividends - it is the net total return. If a company defaults in the ASX200, they are not replaced immediately by the next in line like nothing happened. (The regular ASX200 index would be less affected than the net total return index).

      Sure plenty of companies that have gone bust in that time, but the fact remains the gains in the other 98% of the index far outweigh a total paper loss.

      JM: are you surprised to see those numbers? I'm not, especially considering that SD measures fluctuations in both directions (SD any lower would see us with even more straight line upwards lines). Dont forget the GFC.

      Commenter
      MLJ
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:23PM
    • How about if you had followed it since 2007?

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:03PM
    • But who as an individual holds all 200 ASX200 stocks and rebalances them? If you did then the transaction costs would eat into those returns considerably, plus the time you'd have to put in for doing it.

      Maybe your superannuation fund holds a reflection of the ASX200, but you have to take out management fees, and if you're relying on that super money for your retirement, then you've got major problems.

      Commenter
      Y Diddy
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:04PM
    • It's called an index ETF!

      No ongoing transaction fees.

      Commenter
      libretto
      Location
      canberra
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:58PM
    • I'm a bear and I'm going to give you some schooling.

      Incorrect calcs. because:

      (1.082^12.17)*16779 = 43783, not 45414

      So, to produce end figure - 45414, either years or interest is wrong.

      If I=8.2% true, then unknown T

      (1.082^T) * 16779 = 45414
      1.082^T = 45414/16779
      1.082^T = 2.7066
      Log 1.082^T = Log 2.7066
      0.03423^T = 0.43242
      T = 0.43242/0.03423
      T = 12.6339 years

      Else if T=12.17 true, then unknown I

      (1.I^12.17)*16779 = 45414
      1.I^12.17 = 45414/16779
      1.I^12.17 = 2.7066
      Now, take 12.17 root both sides
      1.I = 1.08526
      I = 1.08526 - 1
      I = 0.08526 or 8.526%

      So, for your figures, it's either

      8.526% over 12.17 years,

      or

      8.2% over 12.6339 years

      GG.

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Greg Coffey World
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 3:20PM
  • Cheers Telstra, for moving up by your upcoming div amount in 3 days... it's not a lot, but good for you big fella :)

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 11:20AM
  • The June USA jobs report crushed expectations in almost every way. U.S. companies added 288,000 payrolls in June, smashing expectations for just 215,000. And May’s number was revised up to 224,000 from 216,000.

    The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.1% from 6.3% even as the labour force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%.

    Housing Boom USA!

    Commenter
    JimmyJ
    Location
    South Yarra
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 11:07AM
    • Full time jobs replaced by part time jobs with no benefits.

      The calculations for inflation and unemployment were more than 'seasonally' adjusted a long time ago, to keep interest rates low. The facts can be hidden but the impacts can't. Lower wages wont grow an economy, that's why growth and inflation aren't happening. However the quantity &/or quality of what you are paying for is shrinking to increase profits.

      Seasonal adjustment is a recurring theme, USA blame a cold winter we blame a warm winter.

      Commenter
      nolongerconfused
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:34AM
    • If everything is "really" so good why is the US economy still on life support?
      If all stimulus measures were dropped and rates were normalised to around 5%, share markets would drop by 50%.
      The bond market doesn't believe it either, yields at record lows.
      Something is not adding up, I'd be cautious about putting new money into the market.
      I predict that markets will fall if they believe the Fed will increase interest rates earlier, due to the "part time job increases".

      Commenter
      Reality Check
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:43AM
    • Yep. USA! USA! USA! But still people on here can not seem to make money? Absolutely amazing. The only way they can imagine getting ahead is waiting for a crash. LMAO!

      Commenter
      LMAO!
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:41PM
    • My CBA longs are up 350% since 2001, Stick with the strength.

      Commenter
      LMAO!
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:44PM
  • Have been following Allans trades for a while now, particularly MQG, I decided to do everything the opposite to him. He shorted MQG at $50 I went long, again at $55 and $60. Sold out today ( perhaps a little too soon) but with dividends and SYD distribution I'm up a considerable amount of money. Thanks Allan and to all those that dislike him on here, stop it. He'd be a genius if he knew what he was doing.

    Commenter
    NALLA
    Location
    narharp
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 11:06AM
  • "Banks Estimate Exposure From Port Qingdao Fraud:

    Foreign banks at risk to a possible fraud at a Chinese port are tallying up their exposure, with estimates topping $500 million."

    Just a drop in the ocean. $500 mil is nothing. It's only worth 0% apparently anyway. Good thing this has all been cleared up now. We know how truthful and forthcoming banks are about the bad loans on their books so we can all sleep easy now. As you were.

    Commenter
    Onwards and upwards
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 11:04AM
    • did you mean they are telling us about 10% or less?

      Commenter
      truth?
      Location
      brisbane
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:15AM
  • DML (Discovery metals) up 80% last two days. After refinance sky is the limit with cu price rising. Best bargain on market

    Commenter
    happy Hippy
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:53AM
    • They havn't made a market announcement?

      Commenter
      WHy
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:21AM
    • Got a speeding ticket however!

      Commenter
      happy Hippy
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:46AM
    • Not a bargain if it's already up 80%.

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:52AM
  • smsf
    can anyone recommend good software?

    Commenter
    smilingjack
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:53AM
    • Excel.

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:57AM
    • Excel is so 1990's.

      Use Google Sheets instead ... not as many functions as Excel, but access from any device from anywhere!

      Commenter
      IT guy
      Location
      Cloud
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:09AM
    • I used Simple Invest for a while problem is you had to keep on paying every year apart from that would have been great. Still keeping an old laptop with MS Money as a backup. Think it is now simple fund anyhow here is the address
      http://www.bglcorp.com/products/simple-fund/introduction
      Cheers

      Commenter
      Opto
      Location
      Hi
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:18PM
    • Lotus 123

      Pen and paper?

      Commenter
      Luddite
      Location
      1800s
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:19PM
    • Stuck on Excell, very last century, but the best i have found so far.
      I ensure I carefully nominate which shares and for what amount they were sold. Important for working out tax on trades.
      Some say accounting is everything in share trading and I am inclined to agree.

      Commenter
      It's All About Making Money
      Location
      Lennox Head
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:51PM
    • The OpenOffice (freeware, open-source, available to run under MacOS, Windows and Linux) "Calc" (spreadsheet) and "Base" (database) applications are worth checking out.

      Commenter
      Dr Kiwi
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:16PM
    • I use Excel 2003 for each of the 11 super funds I look after for the extended family. That's the price I pay for working as an accountant and lawyer back in the bad old days when I had to work for a living. The spreadsheet format gives me the flexibility I need to do the full set of accounts from daily transactions and share trading right through to preparation of a full set of financial statements for giving to the auditor and BAS statements and tax returns. Working out capital gains/losses is a breeze. The bonus is that I accumulate very useful historical data on share prices and dividend activity. KEEP BACKUPS.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:48PM
    • Excel - Most bank statements and trading statements from one's broker also come in excel format.
      It is handy having the same ecosystem throughout.

      Commenter
      It's All About Making Money
      Location
      Lennox Head
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 3:12PM
  • Some sorta blow off top here ?
    all aboard for the blue mountains train ?

    Commenter
    J.
    Location
    Syd.
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:47AM
  • "Down down prices are down..."

    No wait, wrong song. Lets try:

    "I see screens of green,
    bank balance too
    I see no doom.
    For me and you.
    And I think to myself,
    what a wonderful world....."

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    Location
    The Real World
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:46AM
    • Beware of irrational exuberance after only 2 1/2 days. Mind you it is pleasant to see the quantity of red ink rapidly disappear. Have you noticed the rapid rise of NAB. I wonder if a certain UK bank has been sold?

      Commenter
      Wally
      Location
      Flynn
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:33PM
  • buy 200 XRO 24.70 start another accum.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:37AM
    • Nice uptick today. I am long at $26.60, so some more next week would be much appreciated - keep buying!!

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:28PM
  • Mitch of the ACT. you talked about our market correcting for 2 months then last week you predicted a not very good July. Anybody who listened to you wouldn't be that happy with you however I didn't listen.

    Commenter
    Goldfinger
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:34AM
    • I based my forecast on the consistent fall over the past 3 years of 8% from the highest point in April to June to 30th June. This time it was different. Monday will be the test as to how much substance there is in this recent rally. My gut feeling is that it is based on wishful thinking, greed & FOMO. Predictions of higher unemployment and talk of lower interest rates don't auger well. This week's poor sales data for May was just the start.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:33PM
    • I listened, mainly because I was thinking the same thing Mitch was. I sold all my banks on April 28 (I fluked the peak) and was intending to buy back in mid-June but it didn't look right. Bought back in on 1 July instead, and so far so good. I'm significantly ahead from of where I would have been had I held the whole time. I think Mitch may have waited a bit too long, but it's too early to assume that. Let's judge him in another month or two.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:37PM
    • Oh, and Goldfinger, have you any idea how difficult it is to come up with predictions that ensure that the market moves in the exact opposite direction. Give it a try. It's not as easy as you would think.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:40PM
    • @mitch, I like seeing your predictions right or wrong at least you are saying what you think and give us your reasoning as well. Keep up the great contributions.
      @Goldfinger, and your prediction was? I dont recall seeing it

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:06PM
    • @Wwwish Thanks for the acknowledgement. I still think I am right about my prediction for around 5100. It will just occur a little later than expected. My prediction of an 8% fall to 30th June was based on observations from the past years, like the seasons, and like the seasons has probably been shifted out a little by climate change. Remember how unseasonally warm May was.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 4:23PM
  • I haven't met anyone who disagrees with the argument that there will be another crash at some point, the only thing we disagree on is when.
    So until then it's a game of musical chairs.

    Commenter
    It's only a matter of time
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:30AM
  • sell ACR 3400 @ 1.11 avg 0.89 buyins

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:27AM
  • Buying USDs and USD denominated assets when the AUD was around US$1.03 has turned out to be such a stellar trade.

    Just IMAGINE if you stayed in AUDs and the ASX just how badly you have underperformed.

    Commenter
    John Lennon
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:25AM
  • sell 500 SRX @18.30 only bought 18/06 for 16.15......1/2 down

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:24AM
  • Are we gonna hold over 5500 this time? ASX seems to be scared of the northern side of 5500.

    Commenter
    Gumly
    Location
    Mackay
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:19AM
    • Maybe this time. I mean we're still pretending money is worth 0% and record DEBTs don't matter. We made 5500 in 2006 so it is 8 years later. You'd think we have to be able to hold it eventually surely.

      Commenter
      Maybe
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:42AM
  • I've got five properties all negatively geared and subsidised by your taxes thanks. 7% yield and positive cashflow not including depreciation. It's easy in the lucky country just get off your backside and stop whinging.

    Commenter
    Peanut
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:16AM
    • Peanut.
      Please explain how you can have positive cashflow and still be negatively geared (not including depreciation).

      To be negatively geared you must be LOSING money.

      Commenter
      libretto
      Location
      canberra
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:13PM
  • Perhaps S&P500 at 2000 is the checkpoint for a sell off.

    Then they can keep quoting 2000 for their record highs and something to aim for again in the future!

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:14AM
  • Watched that guy from "paradigm" spruick the sh*t outta RNO last night on Your Money Ours Now...they bit hard this morning up 40%..bang,guess he bailed and finished for the day already.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:14AM
    • Speeding Ticket issued......58% up

      3 July 2014 RNO was mentioned on investment panel show Your
      Money Your Call (YMYC) on Sky Business
      Sky News

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 3:13PM
  • DOW still 10% below year 2000 in real terms.

    Commenter
    Unimpressed
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:09AM
  • IAG. Nice div of 6% fully franked and low PE of 11.
    Could be a rise in the price during a mild winter until the late spring storms and bush fires start?

    Commenter
    It's All About Making Money
    Location
    Lennox Hd
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:09AM
    • Hard to estimate what IAG's dividends will be. I wouldn't assume that last Sept's particularly high 25c div will be repeated this Sept. I'm estimating 15c, so with the 13c from Feb, you're looking at a FF return closer to 4.7%. Unless you know something?

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:29AM
    • Bush fires are generally a low cost event for insurers:
      1.) They happen in relatively low populated areas.
      2.) Properties are generally lower than average values.
      3.) High levels of under or non insurance in bushfire risk areas.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:30AM
    • Canberra Jan 18 2003. 500+ homes gone in 4 hours. El Nino then and El Nino on the way.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:16AM
    • @ Mitch: 500 homes is not a lot. Assume a few things:
      1.) A significant portion will be under or non insured. Less say 100 (very conservative)
      2.) The exposure is spread across all 4 of the major insurers. So 100 exposures each.
      3.) Average cost to rebuild of $300k (conservative).
      Therefore, total cost to each insurance company is only $30m. That is WELL within their annual allowance for weather events. Check the accounts, the big boys allow about $500m for weather events per year.
      In addition, their Reinsurance programs will cap out their net retention per event at $10m, so the extra $20m is picked up by their reinsurers.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:34PM
    • El Nino is GREAT for insurers. The weather events they bring (bushfires & drought) are massively lower than the cost of La Nina events (cyclones, flooding, hail).
      El Nino conditions are forecast for the next 3 years, which is why I am very bullish on the insurance sector.
      Hope you find this useful.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:36PM
    • @Irish an El Nino with a climate change twist could contain an unpleasant surprise. I anticipate bushfires, droughts and floods all from the same event. Really hot weather causes more evaporation from the oceans and all of that water vapour has to come down somewhere, sometime.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:36PM
    • @ Mitch: El Nino conditions are not associated with wet conditions.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:44PM
  • TLS is rumoured to be having a 'buy back'. What does this mean exactly?

    Commenter
    Gumly
    Location
    Mackay
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:06AM
    • Gumly, general questions like that are best entered into Google where you will get more comprehensive answers than you would from us. However, it basically means that a company makes an offer to buy shares back off you, usually at a bit of a premium to the current share price and with no brokerage fee. The result is less shares on the market, and therefore an increase in the price of the shares remaining. You tend not to win or lose if you participate (outside of saving brokerage) because the share price would be expected to rise up to around the offer price anyway.

      It is appealing though for people who don't have share trading accounts and they wouldn't quite know how to easily go about selling their shares, or sometimes they've just plain forgotten about them or don't even know how to work out their value. So when they receive paperwork unexpectedly in the mail and realise their shares from a demutualisation some years ago that they forgot about are worth a few thousand (a lot of Australians would be holding small parcels of IAG for example), it's a good opportunity for them to cash them in with minimal effort. Those of us who don't sell will still benefit from the share price roughly matching the offer price anyway.

      It's a good initiative and there's nothing dodgy about it and everyone seems to win, although some people may have preferred all that spare cash was distributed as a special dividend so they at least get some immediate benefit from it.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:56AM
    • When I say it's 'not dodgy', people do need to be aware of offers from other organisations offering to buy your shares off you at a price that is always very low. I don't think it's illegal either (not sure), and you just have to be aware. Some people fall for it when they receive an offer and they wouldn't know how to check if it's reasonable. All they know is that a few thousand they didn't expect sounds good so they tend to sell. The buyers tend to target those companies where a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't know what a share was happen to be holding small parcels. IAG (NRMA) and NHF (NIB) would be good targets, and my Dad used to get that a lot with his old AXA shares.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:11AM
    • What was the last off-market buy-back done at a premium? I think you have that wrong. Most buy-backs are done on-market. The company just engages a broker to buy their own stock which they then cancel.

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:30AM
    • Thanks TP. I understand it's meant to be at a slight premium to encourage a sell, but accept that maybe that's not always the case. I do know often it's something like "at the average share price over the 5 trading days immediately preceding..." so yes, that could end up being less than the market price on the day. I stand corrected.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:40AM
    • Thanks Gareth! You are better than Google any day!

      Commenter
      Gumly
      Location
      Mackay
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:49AM
    • What actually encourages people to take up an off-market buy-back is that a large portion of the proceeds they receive are counted as income and a smaller portion as capital so they can often claim a tax loss. E.g. Woodside's recent buy-back was done at a 14% discount but only $7.95 of the $36.49 proceeds was capital.
      A company paying more for its own stock than it could by just buying on-market is burning money.

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:09PM
    • Oh Gumly, you'll go broke thinking that! I know less than 1% of what there is to know about this game. Default to Google, but use this blog for quick opinions on questions like "What do you think of the market will do tomorrow..."

      By the way, you may find the link below really useful. Just keep in mind that some details may be based on US market rules rather than our rules, so always double-check with the ASX and ATO if you are going to act on something:

      http://www.investopedia.com/dictionary/

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:19PM
    • TP, who makes the decision about the ratio of income / capital for a buyback? I didn't know this could happen. Doesn't sound like something a company can just say, and it is so. I would have thought it's all capital, like it or not?

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 12:40PM
    • This is actually how it's always done in my experience (in Australia that is).
      The decision is made by the company. They decide how much to reduce share capital by and how many franking credits they want to distribute. After that the ATO would sign off. I believe the ATO limits the discount offered to 14% less than the market price. This gives an overview -
      http://www.melbournecentre.com.au/
      Deloitte_Thring.pdf

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:53PM
    • Thanks TP - great information!

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:06PM
    • @Gareth, unsolicited share offers from low-ball predators have been outlawed for a few years now, they've all been blocked from obtaining company register lists.

      Commenter
      Registrar
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:23PM
    • No problem. Here's a real example -
      http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/
      20110222/pdf/41wxvkrjy6gdk6.pdf

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:27PM
    • Gareth & TP; "the company makes the decision" ..... well yes & no.
      The company makes decision on what it thinks it can make as most attractive and still get rubber stamped. Occasionally ATO will tell the company to go back to the drawing board. However what happens in 99% of cases is that the company liaises with the ATO and then presents the most attractive position which they have already had approved in Gentleman's terms. This saves a lot if unnecessary time and costs.

      Commenter
      Pistol Pete
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:37PM
    • Pistol Pete - that's just semantics. Obviously you've provided more detail but, "ATO signs off" was intended to cover everthing you mentioned.

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 3:04PM
    • TP, I apologise if my comment sounded condescending, as that was not the intention. Was just trying to present it as it occurs in simple terms. Cheers.

      Commenter
      Pistol Pete
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 3:32PM
    • No problem. I'm a very slow typist so I was just trying to explain it as briefly as possible :)

      Commenter
      TP
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 4:04PM
  • What? You reloaded your shorts three days in a row when you should have been adding to your longs?

    Housing Boom!

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:04AM
    • Terrible year for the shorters.
      Enjoy.

      Commenter
      Dicky Fuld.
      Location
      oh dear
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:17AM
    • You sell on the way up and buy on the way down. Not the other way around ....

      Commenter
      got brain
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:18AM
  • Rebound in Gold Coast market?!

    Housing Boom!

    Que angry panda!

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:03AM
    • "The median (unit) value on the Glitter Strip has risen to $347,535, which is just 8 per cent below the peak in 2007 when it was $378,000."

      Yep nice rebound like the ASX. It's rebounded strongly back to those 2006/2007 levels LMAO!

      Commenter
      Rebound Ace
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:21AM
    • One of the highest delinquent loans in Australia. Don't celebrate too soon.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:39AM
    • You are kidding yourself mate. GC is pretty well shot for growth.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 2:08PM
  • Have house prices crashed yet?

    Commenter
    LMAO!
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 10:01AM
    • Not yet. Property is different here. 1st home owners have deserted to the lowest levels since WW2 but cashed up foreigners and SMSF have kept the market bubbling along. Property spruikers will lobby for superannuation as a deposit. The govt will help us and the banks which claim credit growth will be difficult, allowing us to work to 70 so we can work longer to pay off the bigger loan. Harry Triguboff (Meriton) thinks parents could mortgage their home to help the children buy one. The RBA could take the break off the interest rate lever but I think they’ll keep that for a real emergency not a perceived one.

      Despite having world record house prices and personal debt to income ratios, our house rules are different. There’s still room for improvement or a renovation rescue. After that, it depends on O/S money printing. If it stops and deflation or stagflation eventuates, plenty will do their block. If money printing continues inflation or hyperinflation should lead to higher interest rates.

      Commenter
      nolongerconfused
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:42AM
  • I smell a "sell" day coming...line a few up for the initial jump,before the reality check.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 9:48AM
    • Hey BSB. Keep ur eye on CAJ it's lift off time!

      Commenter
      Hot Tip
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:16AM
    • I hope so. This surge is pricing out the yield stocks I have on my "To Buy" list. If I can't get better than 7% I'm not interested. I'm getting 7% on a 5-year TD with Rabo risk-free. Stocks have to be cheap to beat that. If I'm patient and don't greedily jump in I know that the bargains will fall at my feet. Happens several times a year and I have that feeling "any day now".

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:17AM
    • Agree with original poster.
      I got out of my position on NCM this morning. May sell down some other positions and buy back in next week on a dip.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:31AM
    • ADO faring better + 10.5%...hotter tip?
      vols were up all week signalling something was about to happen.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:33AM
  • Thank goodness that 17000 has been taken out. Now there is no need to push higher unless it deserves to. QE3 almost over!

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 9:44AM
  • DOW up last fews days. ASX also up last few days. You see it all the time. What a joke. What a sick joke.

    Commenter
    I refuse to listen to anybody
    Location
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 9:41AM
    • Too right. And the DOW was up last night, I bet the ASX will open up this morning. What is with our market?!? I give up.
      *rolls eyes*

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 9:50AM
    • Bex,and Lie Down and start listening.

      Commenter
      Simone
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 9:53AM
  • Sirtex Medical Limited (SRX) running at 17.64 in my portfolio, CIMB back to school.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 9:29AM
    • Hehe. They want to push the price down so they can buy in....

      Commenter
      confused
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 9:51AM
    • up 2% straight off the bat...next.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:11AM
    • Pengana is shorting it. Looks like a great value buy to me.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:50AM
  • Who said we'd get no direction from Wall St today?....remember they are 14hrs behind us ,so their last trading day will have an affect to were we lead off today for sure.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 9:25AM
    • Correct. It is Monday that our market won't have any direction from the US.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 9:51AM
    • Sometimes Wall St provides the lead, sometimes they are following on from the lead set in Asia and what happened here. But given the poor state of our economy, being dragged down by a contractionary Budget, I think we are just chasing our tails trying to keep up with the (Dow) Joneses. Talk of rising unemployment and interest rate cuts doesn't bode well for future share price growth supported by fundamentals. Supported by greed, yes, but not anything you could take to the bank.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 9:55AM
    • Hi BSB. Same old scenario. Long weekend in the US scenarios are usually either up today and down on Monday or down today and up Monday.
      Early indications are up today and down Monday in my opinion.
      Either way we usually make little headway while the US has a long w/e. Maybe this one will be different??? Cheers.

      Commenter
      It's All About Making Money
      Location
      Lennox Hd
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:04AM
    • Yep we just need to push thru that 5500 barrier and stay there...maybe today,maybe not.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:16AM
  • What a lot of nonsense from the sCANdalous bank. CBA’s whistle-blower talks more sense than Ian Narev. I have now moved my mortgages and TD from CBA and the teller was trying to cross-sell me new products in the process. CBA is like a CANcer the way it eats your money.

    Commenter
    Viking
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    July 04, 2014, 9:25AM
    • CBA shares should take a hit for several reasons.

      1. The profit generated from the scandal can't be replicated or 'grown.'
      2. Payouts will flow.
      3. RBA are warning about property price growth, which should / will slow, so growth will come from quantity of loan number not bigger mortgages. !st home buyers will only be tempted back into the market with lower / moderating prices as RBA will keep lower rates for a real emergency caused by events O/S.

      Abbott claims a RC isn't warranted as Australian need govt action but what we are getting is Govt inaction, unless you count the Finance Minister having a chat with the CBA CEO. It probably went like this:
      Fin M: We have a budget emergency, we simply can't afford another Royal Commission, you have to take this seriously. CBA CEO: I am serious, we can't afford it anymore than you can.

      Commenter
      nolongerconfused
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:09AM
    • The only reason that there will be no RC into the CBA scandal is that the outcome is unlikely to embarrass Labor. That motive seems to be the sole justification for RCs under this gov't.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:32AM
    • Never forget the banks are major donators. They'll work out a new way to profit and the government will comply. Example. Reversing FOFA.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 10:54AM
    • The Bankers always get away scot free whatever be the depth of the financial crimes committed and what's worse is that they get to keep the millions in bonuses that they robbed from the common masses .....Ian Narev, remember there is something called Karma and it will catch up with the CBA Management and teams who paid a blind eye to all these illegal activities someday soon. Watch out for the day of reckoning.

      Commenter
      Ash
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 11:45AM
    • Don't count on Karma Ash. Pol Pot died in his sleep.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      July 04, 2014, 1:57PM
Comments are now closed