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Business

Markets Live: Caution ahead of Fed

Date

Australian shares fall from five-year highs, led down by the miners, as global markets brace for next week's decision by the US Federal Reserve on its massive monetary stimulus program.

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That's all from us here at Markets Live for this week. Have a great weekend.

Click here for a full wrap of the day's session

And for the week:

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Here are the best and worst performers on the ASX200 today:

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For the week, the ASX200 added 74.61 points, or 1.5 per cent.

The market has closed lower, with the benchmark S&P/ASX fell 22.9 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5219.6. The broader All Ords slipped 23.5 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5214.7.

As we mentioned earlier today, gold is heading for its worst week in two months, down 5.8 per cent to $US1311.58.

The precious metal poised to extend declines as the US Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus and economic data improve, according to Goldman Sachs, which says that there’s a risk that bullion may drop below $US1000 an ounce.

Spot gold was trading at $US1311 an ounce this afternoon, extending yesterday's 3.2 per cent slump.

While debt-ceiling discussions in the US and the Syrian crisis may support bullion in the near term, gold will resume its decline into next year, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today.

The bank’s target for 2014 was $US1050, and the commodity may overshoot to the downside, Mr Currie said in Singapore.

Spot gold hasn’t traded below $US1000 since October 2009.

Bullion has dropped 22 per cent this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value, the US economy improved and stocks and the greenback rallied.

The demise of gold.

The demise of gold.

Former CSL boss Brian McNamee left the top position at blood products and vaccines supplier at the end of June with pay and entitlements worth almost $20 million.

Dr McNamee spent 23 years as chief executive of CSL and stepped down on June 30, 2013, after growing the company into a global bio-pharmaceutical firm with an increased annual profit of $US1.22 billion in the 2012/13 financial year.

He continues in an advisory capacity to the CSL board until October 15.

Dr McNamee was replaced by Paul Perreault, who as president of CSL Behring, received a total remuneration of $3.04 million in fiscal 2013.

CSL’s annual report, released on Friday, shows that Dr McNamee’s total remuneration for fiscal 2013 was $19.6 million compared to $7.99 million in the prior year.

Of that $19.6 million, $7.88 million was received or available as cash in respect of 2013.

CSL said Dr McNamee’s end-of-service entitlements are payable in fiscal 2014, in accordance with the Corporations Act.

World markets have more than clawed back their deep losses from when the US investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, although Australia remains one of a handful yet to return to record highs.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX200 Index this week hit a five-year high, but is some 1600 points short of its November 2007 record.

From the peak to the GFC low, reached in March 2009, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 plummeted 50.4 per cent.

After Lehman Brothers collapsed in September the local market lost 37.4 per cent in just over a half a year.

But the United States share market, helped by a flood of cheap money, has seemingly put the worst behind it.

Both the Dow Jones and the S&P500 lost more than 40 per cent in months after Lehman, with both also falling more than 50 per cent from their 2007 peaks.

So how far have we really come?

Read more

The ASX200 from 2007-now.

The ASX200 from 2007-now.

Fixed-income markets are showing confidence Australia’s new government can cope with a spike in unemployment that has already climbed to a four-year high.

Since Tony Abbott’s Liberal-National coalition won elections on September 7, the cost to insure the nation’s sovereign debt has dropped 6 basis points compared with credit-default swaps on the US, set for the steepest weekly drop this year. The Australian dollar reached a three-month high and benchmark bond yields rose to a level unseen in almost 18 months as surveys on business and consumer sentiment improved.

Abbott defeated the Labor minority government pledging to lower taxes and cut red tape in order to spur the $1.5 trillion economy as a China-led mining investment boom crests. Global risk appetite was buoyed this week by the possibility a US military strike on Syria may be averted and on prospects the Federal Reserve’s stimulus withdrawal will be gradual.

‘‘I suspect we’ve passed the low point in this current slowdown,’’ said Deutsche Bank economist Phil O’Donaghoe. ‘‘Australia is a small, open economy and we’re very dependent on the global outlook. There are some reasons to be optimistic, particularly with Chinese data of late.’’

It's pretty much a sea of red around the region, amid some profit taking after a strong week of gains, but the biggest losses are on the Chinese market.

The Shanghai Composite is down 1 per cent, its biggest slide in seven weeks, led down by shippers and banks. It's still up a ripping 4.3 per cent this week.

‘‘It’s good to see some corrections for stocks after the recent rally,’’ says Wu Kan, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Dragon Life Insurance. ‘‘After the correction, we’ll see stocks continue to go up as there are lots of expectations about reform measures from the government.’’

Some traders expect the losses to be only temporary, amid growing signs the worst of the economic slowdown is over.

"I think we are due for more gains and we are recommending clients start accumulating more beta counters in the Chinese banking and property sectors," says Francis Cheung, CLSA's managing director of Hong Kong-China strategy.

"The rally so far has been mainly short covering and some of the long money is beginning to return. So many were so bearish on China earlier this year, so even a return to equal weight will help lift the market."

Fixed-income markets are showing confidence an Abbott government can cope with a spike in unemployment that has already climbed to a four-year high.

Since the Coalition won the election, the cost to insure Australia's sovereign debt has dropped 6 basis points compared with credit-default swaps on the US, set for the steepest weekly drop this year.

The Australian dollar reached a three-month high and benchmark bond yields rose to a level unseen in almost 18 months as surveys on business and consumer sentiment improved.

‘I suspect we’ve passed the low point in this current slowdown,’’ says Deutsche Bank economist Phil O’Donaghoe. ‘‘Australia is a small, open economy and we’re very dependent on the global outlook. There are some reasons to be optimistic, particularly with Chinese data of late.’’

However, the weak jobs data provided a bit of a reminder that Australia’s probably going to lag any global pickup, says Michael Turner, a debt strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. ‘‘The market was probably getting a bit ahead of itself, having seen a couple of decent confidence numbers this week, maybe a slightly better tone in general after the election and some decent Chinese data.’’

Can exports fill the mining capex hole? UBS economists Scott Haslem and George Tharenou ask in a note this afternoon:

  • It’s almost certain slowing mining capex will be a significant drag on growth in the period ahead. To avoid a period of weak activity & rising unemployment, Australia needs to rebalance, back toward more domestic-led growth. There are tentative signs this is occurring, helped by a lower RBA cash rate, and a now lower AUD. But the moderate recovery in housing, worth about ¼%pt to y/y growth, won’t be enough.
  • While this suggests Australia’s domestic growth will be below trend for a while to come, we’d argue forecasters are under-estimating the likely benefit to ‘top-line’ GDP growth from the coming boom in export growth.
  • Our analysis suggests the pay-off post the capex boom – higher export volumes & lower import volumes – will add significantly to real GDP growth over the next 3-5 years.
  • In the wake of the capex boom, our analysis suggests export volumes will grow an above average 7½%pa from 2013-16, and given weaker capital imports & a lower AUD, we see import volumes rising a below average 2¼% pa from 2013-16.
  • Together, this will add a significant 1-1½%pt to y/y GDP growth. Relative to a net export drag of 1¼%pt from 2010-12, this could indeed ‘fill the mining capex hole’.

The ghosts of a long-running corruption scandal have returned to haunt Pilbara junior Brockman Mining, with its chief executive having charges laid against him in Hong Kong over the past 24 hours.

Luk Kin Peter Joseph has confirmed that charges have been laid against him by Hong Kong's Independent Commission Against Corruption, which has been investigating him since October 2011.

While the exact nature of the charges were unclear, Brockman said Mr Luk planned to defend the charges vigorously.

The charges come at an awkward time for Brockman, which is entering the pointy-end of a rail access dispute with Fortescue in Western Australia.

Read more

Goldman Sachs, on pace to be the top adviser on US initial public offerings for the first time since 2009, scored a coup by landing the lead role on Twitter’s sale.

Twitter, which announced today that it filed for an IPO, gave Goldman Sachs the job of running the sale, a person with knowledge of the matter said. Twitter is likely to appoint other banks on the offering.

Goldman Sachs lost out to rival Morgan Stanley on similar roles in the highest-profile technology IPOs in recent years, including Facebook’s $16 billion sale last year and offerings by Groupon and Zynga. the year before. San Francisco-based Twitter may have opted for Goldman Sachs after the other offerings drew criticism and complaints from shareholders, according to Michael Holland of Holland & Co.

‘‘The Facebook experience was one that was so egregious that Twitter did a fairly predictable thing,’’ said Holland. ‘‘When the biggest and best have needed IPO services, Goldman is always a finalist.’’

ANZ has announced it will leave its variable interest rate on hold at 5.88 per cent.

With just over half the local trade day done and dusted, here's how the rest of the region is looking:

  • Nikkei: -0.3%
  • Shanghai: -0.5%
  • Taiwan: -0.6%
  • South Korea: -0.6%
  • Singapore: -0.2%
  • New Zealand: +0.2%

This story has gathered quite a bit of steam and is sure you have you guys arguing a bit in the comments section (keep it civil please).

Home prices in Sydney could rise by as much as 10 per cent over the next 12 months, driven in part by unprecedented levels of Chinese demand, according to McGrath Estate Agents.

As much as 80 per cent of homes in parts of Sydney are being sold to Chinese buyers, John McGrath, chief executive officer of the company that recorded $7 billion of property sales in the year to June 30, said in an interview in Sydney. Record-low interest rates and the biggest influx of investors in almost a decade are also fuelling prices.

“The Chinese market is extremely strong, the strongest I’ve seen a new entrant into the market,” McGrath said. “Record low interest rates, the ability to fix such rates for a long period of time is very attractive.”

Chinese buyers, facing government restrictions on purchases at home, were the third-biggest source of foreign investment in Australian real estate, behind the US and Singapore in fiscal year 2012, the latest figures from the Foreign Investment Review Board showed. They accounted for $4.2 billion of transactions, a 75 per cent jump from 2010, according to the data.

Read more

The world’s largest drilling company Boart Longyear has had its credit rating downgraded as it braces for a tough year ahead.

Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s cut the company’s credit rating from B+ to B, and revised its ratings outlook from stable to negative.

Boart recently recorded a loss of $US329 million ($366.13 million) for the first half of 2013, driven largely by massive falls in earnings in its drilling services division as mining companies continue to slash their exploration budgets.

Around half the company’s drilling rigs are now laying idle and it has slashed 2,800 staff this year.

Shares in the company were down 2 per cent cent at 48.5 cents.

Australian financial research analyst Trent Martin faces a five-year prison sentence in the US after pleading guilty to an insider trading scandal involving computing giant IBM’s confidential $US1.2 billion takeover of a Chicago software company.

Martin, 34, who grew up on Sydney’s northern beaches, appeared before US District Court Judge Andrew Carter Jr in a Manhattan courtroom.

Martin was arrested just before Christmas in Hong Kong and his lawyer Larry Krantz said he spent an horrific three months in Hong Kong jails, including a period in a prison hospital for inmates with ‘‘severe psychiatric disorders’’, before eventually being extradited to the US and freed on bail.

Martin, who was the key figure in the $US1 million-plus insider trading scandal but pocketed just $US7,900 for himself, had maintained his innocence until Thursday when he entered guilty pleas before Judge Carter Jr to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud.

Aquila Resources has rebounded into profit as it offloads assets and plans to bring its Eagle Downs project into production by 2017.

Aquila said 2012-13 profit was $317 million following a loss of $238 million in the prior year.

Revenue from the sale of coal was $197 million in the year.

The company said asset sales replaced coal sales as the primary source of income during the year, with the sale of three assets resulting in a net gain of $491 million.

Aquila sold a 50 per cent stake in its Isaac Plains project and a 24.5 per cent interest in Belvedere.

The company said its Eagle Downs project was scheduled for production in the first half of 2017.

Aquila shares are down 1.8 per cent to $2.18.

Markets are taking a breather today ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed is likely to unwind its QE program. The question remains just how fast the Fed will unwind, or taper, its stimulus.

A Bloomberg survey from after last Friday's disappointing US jobs data showed economists are expecting the Fed to pare back its monthly bond purchases by $US10 billion to $US75 billion.

A relatively large cut back in purchases of $US20 billion or more would suggest the Fed is likely to unwind the program fairly quickly unless economic conditions deteriorate, says CMC's Ric Spooner:

  • Last night’s big drop in precious metals was largely about investors taking defensive action against this possibility. This thinking has also seen some defensive selling of Australian resource stocks in early trade today.
  • Even so, a relatively small or “taper light” initiative by the Fed seems the most likely alternative. If “brown patches” can be seen as the opposite of “green shoots” in an economy, the US appears to have developed a few recently.
  • Rising mortgage rates have seen new home sales and the latest jobs numbers have shown signs of plateauing. Against this background, the Fed is likely to adopt a cautious approach next week.

 

And here's the damage on gold miners, with today's falls contributing to a dismal week.

For the day:

  • Newcrest: -3.4%
  • Perseus: -5.7%
  • Kingsgate: -6.3%
  • Regis: -3.1%
  • Evolution: -4.5%
  • St Barbara: -5.6%
  • Oceanagold: -4.5%

For the week:

  • Newcrest: -7.7%
  • Perseus: -12.7%
  • Kingsgate: -12.3%
  • Regis: -4.1%
  • Evolution: +0.3%
  • St Barbara: -11.9%
  • Oceanagold: -8.2%

Gold is heading for its worst week in two months, as tensions surrounding a possible military strike on Syria ease and the US Federal Reserve looks closer to moving to end stimulus.

Overnight, spot gold lost 3.2 per cent, or $US43.48. For the week it is down 4.6 per cent, or $US67.57.

‘‘We expect there will be volatility’’ before the Fed meeting, says David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. ‘‘Investors are jumping out of the safe haven of gold’’ as concerns about a US military strike against Syria ease.

It has inched slightly higher this morning to $US1328.26 an ounce.

 

National Australia Bank is yet to reach its market share goal as competition for home loans increases, the head of its retail bank says.

NAB’s market share has risen by 2.5 percentage points to more than 15 per cent since August 2009, trailing CBA and Westpac, data from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority show.

‘‘Overall market share of 15.3 - we’re not where we want to be, we want to be somewhere north of that,’’ Gavin Slater, who became the head of NAB’s retail bank in April told Bloomberg. ‘‘We do have ambition to continue to grow market share. We think this is a business that benefits from scale.’’ He declined to give specific targets.

Myer is under some pressure this morning, diving 4 per cent to $2.66, as investors reassess the stock in the wake of yesterday's disappointing results.

Several investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Citi have downgraded the stock:

  • Morgan Stanley has cut to equal-weight from overweight with a price target of $3, saying earnings are likely to remain pressured
  • Citi has cut to sell from neutral with a target of $2.40, saying staffing levels need to rise significantly to boost sales.
  • UBS and Goldman maintain their 'neutral' rating on the stock, but Goldies prefers Harvey Norman, having a 'buy' on the retailer.

Myer yesterday reported a full-year net income of $127.2 million, below estimates of $130.6 million and gave a gloomy outlook.

The stocks are still up about 25 pre cent for the year, easily outperforming a 13 per cent rise in the ASX200.

Is Bernie Brookes too focused on Bernie Brookes?.

Is Bernie Brookes too focused on Bernie Brookes?. Photo: Arsineh Houspian

Etihad has overtaken English entrepreneur Richard Branson to become Virgin Australia’s third-largest shareholder, after further buying by the Middle Eastern airline as it edges towards its goal of a 19.9 per cent holding.

A substantial shareholder notice lodged today shows Etihad has boosted its stake in Virgin to 13.4 per cent, up from 12.3 per cent.

The Abu Dhabi-based airline appears eager to move up the share register as quickly as it can, with the latest increase coming just a week ago after its previous move on Virgin.

The latest buying on-market means Etihad’s stake is now greater than the holdings of Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, which has a stake of 12.47 per cent.

Virgin shares are up 0.6 per cent.

Read more

Selling ... Richard Branson is keen to reduce his holdings in Virgin Australia.

Selling ... Richard Branson is keen to reduce his holdings in Virgin Australia. Photo: Jonathan Carroll

Back to the local market, where miners are leading the way down:

  • BHP: -1.3%
  • Rio: -1.6%
  • Fortescue: -1.6%
  • Newcrest: -3.6%

But the banks aren't looking too hot either:

  • ANZ: -0.8%
  • CBA: -0.5%
  • NAB: -1%
  • Westpac: -0.7%
  • Macquarie: -1%

Here are the main winners and losers in the ASX200:

 

The worst performers, and some small gains.

The worst performers, and some small gains.

Some early sentiment on what the IPO means for Twitter.

The worst performers, and some small gains.

The worst performers, and some small gains.

Japanese stocks are also down, paring the weekly advance, as the yen holds gains against the US dollar and investors weigh the prospects for Federal Reserve stimulus cuts.

The broad Topix has slipped 0.4 per cent, while the Nikkei is down 0.4 per cent.

‘‘We may see some profit-taking initially amid cautiousness ahead of the Fed meeting,’’ says Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Okasan Securities in Tokyo. ‘‘But we could see some buying on dips. Expectations are also rising about the country’s economic policies and growth strategies, which is reassuring investors.’’

The Topix climbed 3.2 per cent this week through yesterday on optimism that Tokyo’s winning bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games would boost profits at real estate, construction and tourism companies.

The stock market has opened lower. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index is down 20.4 points, or 0.4 per cent, at 5222.1, while the broader All Ords has lost 19.5 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5218.7.

Among the sectors, materials are down 1.3 per cent, gold stocks have plunged 3.4 per cent and financials have lost 0.3 per cent.

Despite this morning's losses, the ASX200 is still up 1.55 per cent for the week.

Verizon's $US49 billion corporate bond deal – eclipsing the previous world's largest by a country mile – is a reminder of two things, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes notes:

  • Firstly, that for large, capital market-friendly corporations, money is cheap and plentiful regardless of the summer’s rise in bond yields; and secondly, that the current level of interest rates makes keeps the cost of funding too far below the return on equity.
  • This was the mix which spawned the leveraged buy-out boom by the private equity industry in the years before Lehman went bust. Things are ‘different now’ as is always the case, but you could hardly hope for a better example of why monetary policy normalisation is a sensible idea.

Australian shares are seen retreating from five-year highs as global markets brace for next week's decision by the US Federal Reserve on its massive monetary stimulus program, while a drop in metals prices may hurt miners.

What you need2know this morning:

  • SPI futures down 9 points
  • AUD fetching 92.72 US cents, 92.20 yen, 69.71 euro cents, 58.65 pence
  • On Wall St, Nasdaq -0.2%, Dow Jones -0.2%, S&P500 -0.3%
  • In Europe, Eurostoxx -0.1%, FTSE100 flat, CAC, -0.3%, DAX flat
  • Spot gold down to $US1323.93 an ounce
  • Brent oil up to $US112.84 per barrel
  • Iron ore rises to $US135.20 per tonne

In economic news, ANZ makes its monthly interest rate decision.

Read more

Lest we forget:

Contributors: Max Mason, Jens Meyer, Luke Higgs

This blog is not intended as investment advice

BusinessDay with agencies

Risk assets seem to be running out of steam heading into the weekend with a lack of fresh catalysts to keep pushing markets higher, notes IG's Stan Shamu:

  • At the same time US economic data continues to suggests that tapering is indeed on track and this is resulting in a mildly cautious tone for some investors.
  • The most notable release from US trade was the weekly unemployment claims which dropped to 292,000; a six year low. However, analysts have warned that the numbers aren’t very reliable and perhaps waiting for more data over the next few weeks - for confirmation that this drop in jobless claims is accurate - is a smart strategy.
  • Despite the recent positive readings, the US dollar didn’t really exhibit the kind of strength we would generally expect from the effect it has on tapering expectations. This suggests the market is perhaps now content with the tapering notion.

Social media behemoth Twitter has filed for an IPO with US regulators.

The company tweeted the news, with Goldman Sachs rumoured to be lead underwriter.

The Wall Street Journal has estimated the company founded in 2006 is worth $US10 billion ($10.8 billion).

It is expected to earn $US582.8 million globally in ad revenue this year and nearly $US1 billion next year, according to industry tracker eMarketer. Facebook, which raised $16 billion last year, has a market value of about $109 billion.

 

Gold stocks are likely to come under significant pressure today as traders react to the overnight slump in the gold price.

Gold plunged, after a sudden price tumble in the futures market shattered investor confidence, sending the metal to its biggest one-day drop in more than two months.

Prices also came under pressure as tensions with Syria eased and US data reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will this month start to unwind its monetary stimulus that has bolstered gold prices for the past four years.

Spot gold dropped 3 per cent to $US1325.55 an ounce, for its biggest one-day fall since June 26. Silver sank over 5 per cent and platinum group metals were lower after gold's big jolt lower early in London trading.

US gold futures trading was momentarily halted in the afternoon by CME Group's Stop Logic mechanism. In the one minute around the 20-second trading pause, gold prices slid $US10 with an unusually heavy 4300 contracts changing hands, Reuters data showed.

"The block trade of futures and the $US10 gap down spooked the market right out of the gate," said Jeffrey Sica, chief investment officer of Sica Wealth Management.

Sica said that some sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds opted to reduce their gold positions after the sudden decline, extending the gold market's weakness later in the session.

Stop Logic is aimed at preventing large price movements from cascading stop-price orders, an order to sell or buy a security when it reaches a particular price. It also allows participants to provide additional liquidity.

On the way down ... gold this week.

On the way down ... gold this week.

US stocks slipped overnight, ending seven straight days of gains by the S&P 500 index as a drop in precious metal prices dragged mining shares lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 25.96 points, or 0.2 per cent, at 15,300.64. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 5.71 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 1683.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 9.04 points, or 0.24 per cent, at 3715.97.

Economic data showed first-time weekly claims for state unemployment benefits, the last major reading on the labour market before the Fed's meeting, fell to the lowest level since 2006, but the picture was incomplete because two states did not process all their claims.

"We're seeing some modest profit-taking," including in basic materials stocks, said Michael Sheldon, market strategist at RDM Financial, in Westport, Connecticut.

The S&P 500 had risen about 3.4 per cent over the prior seven sessions, its longest winning streak in two months, as concerns about a Western military strike against Syria faded.

Australian shares are seen retreating from five-year highs as global markets brace for next week's decision by the US Federal Reserve on its massive monetary stimulus program, while a drop in metals prices may hurt miners.

What you need2know this morning:

  • SPI futures down 9 points
  • AUD fetching 92.72 US cents, 92.20 yen, 69.71 euro cents, 58.65 pence
  • On Wall St, Nasdaq -0.2%, Dow Jones -0.2%, S&P500 -0.3%
  • In Europe, Eurostoxx -0.1%, FTSE100 flat, CAC, -0.3%, DAX flat
  • Spot gold down to $US1323.93 an ounce
  • Brent oil up to $US112.84 per barrel
  • Iron ore rises to $US135.20 per tonne

In economic news, ANZ makes its monthly interest rate decision.

Quotes Search

Sort comments by:
  • I will leave you with the quote of the week from Britney Spears:

    “I’ve never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don’t like eating fish. And I know that’s very popular out there in Africa.”

    Avagoodone.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 4:51PM
  • 4.12 pm: The bank’s target for 2014 was $US1050, and the commodity may overshoot to the downside ...... Finally may be able to buy some physical gold. Especially if the aud keeps rising.

    Commenter
    Bearly Gruntled
    Location
    Land of hot air
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 4:40PM
  • ED, what happened to my quality posts today?

    Commenter
    Freedom
    Location
    Fighter
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 4:33PM
  • Hm.. US interest rates have started rising. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney already alluding to raising interest rates. Australia has two options in 18 months:

    1. Try and "go it alone" and keep Australian interest rates low to try and keep protecting the housing bubble. The AUD will crash, import prices will rise, and bubble priced property will crash.

    or

    2. Raise rates with the major economies to keep foreign investors happy/stop a huge outflow of capital. Littlelandlords won't be able to pay the higher interest rates on their loss making investments and bubble priced property will crash.

    Either way sit back and enjoy more property spruikers get financially ruined through their foolishness and MASSIVE debts.

    Commenter
    Big Dose
    Location
    Of Reality
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 4:23PM
  • I see the Tory Rabbitt's policy of buying Indonesian fishing boats is working. Another one was home-delivered today with 150+ people on board.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 3:31PM
    • I see you don't understand the concept of a caretaker government and the notion that one can't implement policy without being sworn in.

      Commenter
      Common_Sense
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:49PM
    • First budget savings. TA will be unable to buy fishing boats, thereby saving $10 million. Indonesians are worried it would start a boat building boom. Onya Scott.

      Commenter
      Bearly Gruntled
      Location
      Land of hot air
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:53PM
    • @Common_Sense so Bracks hasn't been sacked after all, well not yet at least.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:30PM
  • Now that the labor party is RUDDerless let's
    get the parrrot on the job. there is absolutely
    nothing he is aware of. Give him 2 weeks & all will be fixt.

    Commenter
    pest from the west
    Location
    Still at Lowood
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 3:30PM
    • <coy> Aww... now stop that... you're embarrassing me </coy>

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:00PM
  • Just bought some IINET for $6.

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    Location
    Broadbeach
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 3:21PM
    • Was going to make some joke about it being down to $5.995 but feared many on here would take it seriously.

      Looks like decent value IMO. Been looking at it since you mentioned it early this week.

      Commenter
      heybert
      Location
      Sesame Street
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:29PM
    • good choice (hopefully), I am on them as well!

      Commenter
      Saithong
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:32PM
    • I think TLS is a better buy. Cheaper, better dividend with the prospect of a bonus from the NBN, provided of course the build of NBN gets continued. At the moment that looks up in the air. Check out:
      http://www.dbcde.gov.au/broadband/national_broadband_network

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:35PM
    • I'll be picking up TLS after the September/October craziness. Hopefully it'll be $4.50-ish by then.

      Commenter
      heybert
      Location
      Sesame Street
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:54PM
    • @heybert you will always get lots of chances to buy Telstra cheaper because it's such a badly run company. Ziggy couldn't fix it. Sol Trujillo couldn't fix it. David Thodey says their customer service issues are a thing of the past lol The people who believed that must be the people who paid $5.15 for it recently lmao!

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:31PM
    • @heybert Unfortunately I think Telstra's price will hold up as it's one of the few really safe haven stocks,

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:32PM
  • That's me for the week folks. Another great week for the Bulls. 5600 here we come. Time to get ready for a few schooners, then a nice pizza and the usual Krondorf Shiraz! Go Port...now there is an idea coffee and port to celebrate. Happy trading everyone!

    Commenter
    Xenaphon
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 3:09PM
    • Catch Mayweather vs Canelo this Saturday US time (Sunday lunch time our time) if you can. That will be a good fight.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:32PM
  • Only smarties are buying up all real estate australia wide, usually in cash no need for bank loans.
    Even if the mother of all property crashes were to happen some day in the future the smarties would buy more property.
    If you haven't purchased yet just wait for the crash and then compete with the smarties in the future...good luck !

    Commenter
    a smarty
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 3:02PM
    • That's ridiculous.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:31PM
  • For those who came in late.>
    On 10/9/13 the parrot says he shorted ARI
    @ $ 1.25 . 11/9/13 ARI traded $1.265 to
    $1.33 12/9/13 he said he was putting a ring
    around his short @ $1.35 .It traded @ $1.31
    to $1.365. No escape as yet. Today trades
    $1.31 $1.355 . What to do?

    Commenter
    pest from the west
    Location
    Lowood State of excitement
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:26PM
    • pest. ARI is valued at $1.08 cents per share. and that's optimistic.

      Commenter
      got brain
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:02PM
    • The parrot makes me laugh, selling shares he don't own to buy back later for more?
      With money he don't have?
      Just like the two dozen homes in family trust sold years ago to avoid the crash ?
      I just don't understand the logic.

      Commenter
      pete
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:07PM
    • Patience grasshopper. When you can walk over the rice paper without leaving a mark you will be ready....

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:03PM
    • "he don't own" hmmm... the Taylor's Lakes local primary school has a lot to answer for.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:11PM
  • Anyone got a comment on VOC Turnover yesterday of 11,000,000, up 10 fold on a good days trading. Price up today. Takeover looming?

    Commenter
    st1
    Location
    Melb
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:24PM
  • "Myer boss Bernie Brookes has admitted that 2014 will deliver another year of earnings disappointments as the department store is handicapped by the weight of millions of dollars in higher wages and utility bills, while shoppers remain stubbornly hooked on thrift."

    www.theage.com.au/business/myer-chief-sees-gloomy-year-ahead-20130912-2tnjo.html#ixzz2ek8dQMyO

    And that thrift hasn't made a dent yet on household debt. It's been building for 30 years. It will take a decade to get it under control.

    The Myer float was the biggest con job pulled on the Australian public since T1 Telstra.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:21PM
    • I like it. Short.

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:54PM
    • I wish I was smart enough to have shorted it around $2.90 recently :(

      PS: Bernie Brookes is a clown.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:56PM
    • Bernie is one of the few CEO's who actually and frequently talks his own stock down, he really needs to go.

      Commenter
      Pie in the sky (and bored with the ASX)
      Location
      Vic.
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:05PM
    • Go!?! Clearly, they ain't payin' him enough.

      Commenter
      Bubbles the cat
      Location
      A mine.....middla Nowhere
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:33PM
  • The miners are entering times of unprecedented profits...YIKES what will that do to share price of miners, not to mention the ASX

    Commenter
    Shorters on Notice
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:18PM
    • When I see headlines like that, I tend to think it's a good time to sell.

      Commenter
      buysell
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:07PM
  • Real Estate agents are giving the game away playing the "buy now or miss out forever because the Asians will buy everything in sight" card...

    On top of FHB deserting the market

    On top of emergency low rates which aren't luring them back,

    On top of gen y not foolish enough to pay baby boomer prices

    On top of a .1 rise in occupancy rates which will see no new dwellings required in Sydney for 2 years

    On top of the fading mining boom

    On top of rising unemployment

    On top of record low rental returns

    Gee come to think of it, it's really not looking too good...

    ROFLMAO!

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:12PM
    • Allan is just a clueless dolt with no idea about house prices or much else for that matter.

      Case in point: His JBH shorts!!

      $12.45 at 11-Feb-2013
      $14 7-Mar-2013 "retail is toast"
      $14.50 22-Mar-2013
      $17 28-Jun-2013
      $18.75 30-Jul-2013
      $20 11-Sep-2013

      Sue was right. This guy is a complete amateur, probably didn't even use GSLs on the shorts. ROFLMAO!!!

      Commenter
      matt_forex1
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:37PM
    • In a few months there will be lots of houses for sale in Canberra at very good prices. Thanks to the Tory Rabbitt for promising to destroy the wealth of so many families.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:41PM
    • Matt, Allan was specifically referring to the Chines real-estate spruik story (which - shock, horror - doesn't allow comments). Can you please name which point of his is not true and valid?

      Commenter
      Davo
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:45PM
    • Mitch, unfortunately I cannot shed a tear for people who were used to well paid and safe jobs in Canberra.

      Now they can experience the competition, uncertainty and maybe even risk their own capital.

      Commenter
      Opinion Only
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:29PM
    • @Opinion only Not all of the people in Canberra who will lose their jobs are well-paid public servants. As in any community there are people who provide services that the rest of the community needs, e.g. retail staff, service people of all trades. Public servants selling up and moving from Canberra will put pressure on housing prices in the city they move to and add to your road congestion plus take jobs away from the locals. Not so nice now is it. Perhaps we should shed a tear for you.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:47PM
    • I see, so one position renders all the wins over the last 18 months worthless. Grasping at straws much dolt....

      Did you miss the $3.20/share on FMG. No, you conveniently left that out of your rant.

      What is it exactly that has made you so angry? On second thought, not interested. ROFLMAO!

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:06PM
  • Biggest housing crash in 75 years!

    So warns Christopher (studied for a PhD) Joye. His defence of house prices based on incomes was always bogus given that the economy has been inflated by the massive increase in personal debt to over 150% of income over the last 30 years.

    Still, he now seems to have a KEEN eye on the bubble. ROFLMAO!

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:05PM
    • Dream, dream,dream...

      Commenter
      sleepless
      Location
      prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:42PM
    • Is he saying what could happen if this and if that,or is he saying it will happen?
      Me thinks the former.

      Commenter
      Chumlee
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:17PM
    • More like a nightmare... for you.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:20PM
    • The future is always about what could happen. Except for you, you're Dr Who.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:24PM
  • Sometimes I think our politicians are intentionally letting Chinese buy Australian property so that it's foreign investors that take a bath when the government eventually introduces legislation to implode the property market. That way, locals win with a pain free property reset and minimal votes are lost?

    Commenter
    panda
    Location
    perth
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 2:00PM
    • Dunno panda doubtful
      big trouble in big banks with an uncontrolled RE reset

      Commenter
      yada
      Location
      bobf wa
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:09PM
    • Didn't something like this happened with Japanese 20 years ago? Japanese money was pulled everywhere, most notably in the US.

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Greg Coffey World
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:23PM
    • Silly me tstsk if banks run into issues just suspend the mark to market convention and carry on.

      Commenter
      yada
      Location
      bobf wa
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:14PM
  • Q: How much money will Chinese investors lose buying Australian property at bubble prices?

    A) Not much. There can't be that many dumb enough can there? They will almost all be able to identify that if they want foreign property investment exposure the US is far superior currently with a relatively low currency and low property prices relative to Australia with an over-valued currency and a laughable property bubble.

    B) About the same as the Japanese in the 1980s. They will buy into the bubble then sell for VERY HEAVY losses and take a currency conversion loss as a cherry on top.

    C) About the same losses as the Koreans. They will make the mistake thinking that because Australia is now their major trading partner (like Korea once was) that getting some foreign property investment exposure is a good idea. They will then lose hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions of dollars (depending on their circumstances) and cry into their corn flakes in 5-10 years time like all previous participants in Australian property bubbles have.

    D) They won't lose money but will make HUGE PROFITS. I mean.. what could go wrong? The AUD seems cheap at US$0.93 and new tiny cheaply built units off the plan for $1 mil - $2 mil are obviously great value!

    Commenter
    Property Bubble
    Location
    Pollster
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 1:35PM
  • before going crazy about the Chinese buying all the property, maybe read the article and see that they are only the third largest behind US and Singapore , considering their geographic position and population, nothing unusual

    Commenter
    chris
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 1:30PM
    • You have to admit, it's pretty funny that some Americans would have bought Australian investment property around AUD/USD parity at bubble prices and are now going to take a BIG loss on the currency conversion, a HUGE loss on capital invested at bubble prices, then have a long slow money hemorrhaging period where Australian property prices stay flat and they wonder when the best time is for them to sell and cut and run from their HUGE losses lol

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:30PM
  • 12:50 article. All this overseas investment in Australian real estate on top of an existing housing shortage on top of record high immigration on top of record low interest rates on top of a soon to resume falling AUD...

    Yikes!

    Commenter
    Unusual Suspect
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 1:09PM
    • He He He .... There's still money to be made in housing.

      Hmmm - perhaps I'll offload some and stick the funds in my SMSF

      ROFLMAO

      Commenter
      lima
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:26PM
    • June 2010 was the top. You should have sold then. Assuming you had any. Doubtful.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:53PM
    • no need to sell when I'm getting a 4.5% net yield anyway. your comments about real and unreal gains is just silly, when the real revenue has been 4.5%. Any capital gains even if its not inflation adjusted, is just cream on top.
      Comprehension and logic - fail. back to school sonny
      ROFLMAO

      Commenter
      lima
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:14PM
    • I am about to sell to so called foreign investor at inflated price (I am way out of housing market!!!) The deal will settle soon and I will be back to shorting!

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:30PM
    • Our economy (mining) heavily depends on China, our jobs depends on China, prices of most of our goods used around the home depends on China, our real estate values depends on China, should we rethink our flag? I think so.

      Commenter
      Red all around
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:06PM
    • Nope. Net rental returns before tax are < 2%. You just don't know it.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:14PM
  • 12.50pm: ...... driven in part by unprecedented levels of Chinese demand ...... The money being used for these Sydney houses has been made from the sweat of a semi slave workforce. So local buyers suffer because virtual blood money is allowed in unabatted. We are being hit from both sides. Local billionaires want us to work for $2 per day while at the same time dirty money is pricing us out of our homes. Who is responsible for this outrage?

    Commenter
    Bearly Gruntled
    Location
    Land of hot air
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 1:01PM
    • I'm not worried about it. Foreign money can't prop up property bubbles for ever. Eventually the bubble bursts along with the currency and they sell their properties back to locals at HUGE losses. Just ask the Japanese who bought all that property on the Gold Coast in the 1980s. Just ask the Koreans and Chinese who bought all that property on the Gold Coast at bubble prices in recent years while the AUD was around and above parity with the USD lol They took 50% "baths" on the property price + all the associated transaction costs + a 15% currency conversion loss as a cherry on top lmao!

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:10PM
    • Don't worry, Ricky Muir will rectify the situation.

      Commenter
      Opinion Only
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:19PM
    • Look at all of those rich Chinese lining up to pay NSW property taxes. O'Farrell should go for broke on this captive market. If not an Australian resident they pay more. The ATO should also ensure that when these properties are sold, as they eventually will be, it gets its cut of capital gains taxes instead of, as often happens, the cash is ferreted away o/seas and no taxes paid.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:20PM
    • Mitch I doubt capital gains will be an issue when they sell

      Commenter
      Davo
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:11PM
  • China wants to build cities to house 100 million. That is a lot of steel, coal etc. It also will be creating consumers, who increasingly will be demanding pay rises in order to buy stuff. The CPA at some stage may lose control.

    Commenter
    Bearly Gruntled
    Location
    Land of hot air
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 12:52PM
    • And almost all of them either a) soviet style rows of grey concrete blocks or b) chintzy imitations like the "copy" of Paris on the Four Corners episode this week complete with a 1/3 replica of the Eiffel Tower. You gotta laugh...

      http://www.realtytoday.com/articles/4625/20130806/visiting-another-ghost-town-tianducheng-mini-italy-china-video.htm

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:13PM
    • They've gotta fill in the empty ones first. See:

      http://www.news.com.au/business/china-building-mega-cities-but-they-remain-empty-sparking-fears-of-housing-bubble-burst/story-e6frfm1i-1226611169281

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Greg Coffey World
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:48PM
    • ...CPA WILL lose control & THEN as the provinces explode, will we see some boat arrivals...

      Commenter
      Prince Eugen
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:51PM
  • FLT has had 4-5 days of rises. Allan's pick as a short is looming as a serious bet.

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Greg Coffey World
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 12:40PM
    • The price rise in FLT is an example of the Mitch effect. A poster on here was asking for advice as to what to do with his long-held FLT on which he had a good profit. I suggested that he sell some in order to take the profit before the market takes it back. The Mitch effect says that if you sell some shares the price immediately skyrockets. which it did, so that you should consider selling some more. If you buy the reverse happens. The stock goes ex-div 91c f/f on Monday so now's the day that you have to make the decision altho yesterday would have been better. If you hold for the div you might still get a good price ex-div and the f/f div to boot plus if you have held them for more than 45 days you get to keep the franking credit.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:28PM
    • XD on Monday. I'll wait for that first and see how much it falls. Might be monster drop. Yikes. That'd make someone happy.l

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Greg Coffey World
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:53PM
  • Anyone got opinions on the current Share Purchase Plans for Collection House (CLH) and Silverlake (SLR)?

    Commenter
    Irish Phil
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 12:40PM
    • CLH is currently trading at $1.78+,well above the offer price $1.65 of the SPP and still being bid up. New shares are entitled to the 3.6c f/f dividend. The dividend is too low for my liking for a $1.78+ share but this is a debt collection company and this is the type of company that I would expect to do well in the economic climate that the contractionary Abbott gov't gives us - near recession. Expect the SPP acceptances to be scaled back. I would expect some profit-taking as present holders sell at $1.78+ what they bid for at $1.65.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:09PM
    • I dont know why you would pay $0.85 per share for an allotment when the market price is $0.765.

      Commenter
      in or yang
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:14PM
  • I've noticed that one of the best predictors of a share price fall seems to be 'capital raising'. Does anyone know what options mgmt have if the share price falls well below the 'issue price'? The specific recent example is SLR - issue price 0.85. Current share price 0.765.

    Commenter
    Yin or yang
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 12:37PM
    • It's like PDN. Existing shareholders get CLOWNED.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:11PM
  • "THE US government has given a fourth LNG plant approval to export to Asia's big gas buyers, bringing the level of approved exports from the nation's overflowing gas market to 50 million tonnes a year -- double Australia's current production. "

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/gas-producers-alarmed-as-us-approves-another-new-plant/story-fn91v9q3-1226718029045

    At that's only the beginning. The shale gas revolution is threatening to turn the Australian high cost LNG industry into a white elephant.

    That and the massive uptake of solar panels doesn't bode well for ORG.

    P.S. To read the Australian article paste the headline into google and link from there (bypasses the paywall).

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 12:37PM
    • Existing LNG operators don't really care about new US plants. They all have 20+ year contracts to supply gas at prices linked to the crude price. And when the US plants do start moving gas (5 to 10 years time), they will sell at the similiar prices, NOT US domestic prices. It all just opens up more markets for high dollar spot cargos.

      Commenter
      pplater
      Location
      Perth
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:42PM
    • Sure, sure, forward contracts are iron clad. Unless of course they're not. BP already selling into Asia at 30% below the oil linked price.

      "Oil giant BP will reportedly sell liquefied natural gas to Japan in a contract based for the first time on United States domestic gas prices, rather than the usual link to the much higher price of crude oil.

      US domestic gas prices reflect the glut of shale gas production in the country.

      "The price of the BP gas, which will be sourced from its production in Egypt and the Caribbean region, will be up to 30 per cent lower than oil-based pricing and will sound further alarm bells for the high-cost Australian LNG export industry, analysts say."

      http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/bp_in_lng_contract_linked_to_us_w6OVr9KqsGK6vf27Ifk4XJ

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:29PM
  • Don't mention this to Allan, he is still in denial:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/chinese-buying-sydney-homes-at-record-rate-says-john-mcgrath-20130913-2tocn.html

    Commenter
    No Vision
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 12:32PM
    • I will trust the official stats from the ABS thanks. They say Sydney is cheaper than it was 10 years ago in real terms.

      If you bought in the mid 90's you would have done well. Or even better in the 60's and 70's as almost all of the properties in our family trust were.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:09PM
    • Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics - its an old favorite.

      Commenter
      No Vision
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:48PM
    • So you are one of those nasty little landlords. Hypocrite !
      hoodafunk that.

      Commenter
      pest from the west
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:57PM
    • Nope the family trust had a large property portfolio. When I got control of it I sold up. BTW what's a Lowood house worth?

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:16PM
    • Still hold some bought in response to a takeover offer that seemed to go on and on and on with very little detail announced. I started to wonder whether there was any substance to the offer. The offer was eventually pulled.
      Hopefully the new CEO will be able to get the company back on track as it is involved in the gas sector in QLD. He seems to have experience from his previous time with Santos.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:30PM
    • Yes but what would be Liberator's alternative "investment" policy be hehe

      Commenter
      Captor
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:15PM
  • ORG having a shocker, time to buy some more!

    Commenter
    ORGan donor
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:48AM
    • You can average down from $19.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:17PM
    • nice catch @ORGan donor hehe

      Commenter
      nalla
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:10PM
    • lol

      Commenter
      Observer
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:12PM
    • Still no trades from nalla. Just hot air.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:58PM
    • @observer...bites every time eh, be nice if the barra bit like that. FMG causing the blood pressure up too I reckon.

      More fantasy trades to come yet, otherwise I am sure the Prahran CBA branch loans manager wishes he was on commission

      the sad thing is my name is Allan as well, how embarrassing! lol

      Commenter
      ORGan donor
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:13PM
    • You're fixated on my ORG position. What is it about that particular trade that makes you so insecure?

      Oh and thanks for biting AND being a fan. Who knew you could do both at once. ROFLMAO!

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:17PM
  • WCL asked on Wed if anyone was buying but got no replies either way, up 15% since then new CEO may be a winner.

    Commenter
    jock pru
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:43AM
    • Still hold some bought in response to a takeover offer that seemed to go on and on and on with very little detail announced. I started to wonder whether there was any substance to the offer. The offer was eventually pulled.
      Hopefully the new CEO will be able to get the company back on track as it is involved in the gas sector in QLD. He seems to have experience from his previous time with Santos.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:30PM
  • Cant believe Rio's price although down today 1.5%. They are poor managers of capital (massive writedowns), issues with mines on 3 continents (Africa, Asia, America) and the Fe price fell $3.00 last weekend to recover 50c this week. It has new production & a lower $ going for it. But perhaps most importnatly it shouted analysts & journos an all expenses paid tour of their mines. As Mr Abbott discovered favouarable press will deliver the required outcome. In Rio's case a pop in the share price.

    Commenter
    Seb Gonzo
    Location
    New Farm
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:43AM
  • Friday sell off time!! 5 days of ups, nope, can't have that happening. Expect the download momentum to pick up once the 12 o'clock crowd logs on and spits out their diet coke

    Commenter
    panda
    Location
    perth
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:32AM
  • What's going on with AAC? I'm in at $1.10. I now hate this stock because I hate these equity raising where they price it at a point that almost forces existing shareholders to take it up so they don't get diluted. My initial plan was to sell for $1.25 for a 13.6% gain. I'm not as keen on that strategy anymore lol What do?

    PS: Replies from serious traders/investors only (No paper trading jokers please).

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    Location
    Broadbeach
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:27AM
    • Any stock related to agriculture is a trading stock only. Ver similar to airlines. There are too many risks out of their control eg drought, $Aus, fickleness of markets. Look at Elders, Ruralco & indeed ACCO. They are perannually poor performers & every reporting season have excuses for poor returns. Only people that benefit are board members & executives. Coys that market primary industry products eg AAB are best investment as opposed to producers.

      Commenter
      Seb Gonzo
      Location
      New Farm
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:37PM
    • AAC has declining rev/share from $1.29 12/10 to $0.79 3/13. Cash Flow. neg -23.8 p/s at 3/13 worst on record from '04. Earnings p/s at -59.4 worst on rec., net loss(1stQ only) -$46.5m suggest net loss -$180m for full year coming. Divs gone. Cash at $11m 12/13 down from $22m 12/12. Comment: the raising is in response to deteriotrating business performance. Why? Don't know enough about the company, but I do know that when a business goes cash flow negative, cash starts to dry up, and debts at $407m/debt repayments/interest bills pile up, so if that keeps going cash flow neg. then its heading towards insolvency. To espape, raise cash thru placement or raise more debt. More issues is dilutive, and more debt is destructive. Most certainly if interest rates start rising. The fundamental point is that the business must pay its way to survive, and if it continues to operate cash flow negative, eventually it will collapse. Could bounce back short term but business must improve performance. Disclaimer:IMO and not to be relied upon.

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Greg Coffey World
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:12PM
    • I'm a youngish, newbie (relatively) investor

      I'm a holder of AAC and must admit, I have no idea what's going on!

      Commenter
      Fred
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 2:08PM
  • "Gold is heading for its worst week in two months"

    Time to buy NCM? I have a 5 year window. I must be OK now. Comments?

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-dismal-week-for-gold-miners-20130913-2tobs.html#ixzz2ejQhUygf

    Commenter
    Gold Finger
    Location
    My Universe
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:26AM
    • I will be buying NCM very soon for the long term

      Commenter
      Saithong
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:12PM
    • I think the gold miner trade window has now closed. There's too many other equities that look better value now and with a strengthening USD and rising interest rates gold could be low and flat for a long time.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:14PM
    • I have the greatest respect for your ability to pick up and profit from down trodden shares @GA but in my humble there will always be an opportunity to pick up a good gold miner with the fluctuations that occur in this sector.

      Commenter
      GOLDen Oldie
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:15PM
  • MTU on the way back up. 10 cent div in 2 weeks.

    Commenter
    Chumlee
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:19AM
  • Looks like Emeco Holdings Limited (EHL) shareholders didn't take the news of my departure from the share registrar well at all lol

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    Location
    Broadbeach
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:17AM
    • You did better than me. I just made 10% profit..

      Commenter
      oi
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:49PM
  • Hyperion cashing in on the inflated Dominos share price. Or maybe they just don't like the toppings?

    Had one from the Prahran shop a couple of months back. Basil was totally stale. Sure it was cheap but unfortunately it was nasty too.

    Short well in the money.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:12AM
    • Dunno but did you read about the new KFC pie today?

      http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wa-news/kfc-pie-plan-sizzles-and-fizzles-20130911-2tk8g.html

      I was enjoying some coco pops, surfing the net, and getting ready for NFL Thursday Night Football Pats vs Jets and I read that article. It sounded absolutely dreadful. Thank you Liam Ducey for taking a hit for the team and sparing me the misfortune of trying one.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:19PM
    • To paraphrase Gwyneth Paltrow, I'd rather smoke crack than eat a KFC pie.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:08PM
  • Notice how the perennial pollyannas complain how the market is rigged when it drops and when it rises the shorters just sell more? Suck it up princesses! ROFLMAO!

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:10AM
  • No need to get excited guys, 5200 is the new support!

    Commenter
    Support@4900
    Location
    ASX200
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:03AM
    • At least until the Fed announces the degree of tapering next week. Some say that is already factored in but every time there is a major announcement with a negative effect, even tho the market knew it was coming, there is a significant downturn.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:17AM
    • I don't understand the sentiment around index levels, why would you buy or sell something based on the level of the ASX. I would have thought it better to buy or sell based on the perceived value of the individual stock?
      Otherwise it's waiting for the music to stop, and some poor sucker left holding shares in an overvalued company (probably on a recommendation of a broker pushing a momentum trade).

      Commenter
      buysell
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:43AM
  • @James39.

    "It' s only money and we have lots of it.".....

    The most ironic comment I've ever read here. My point is EXACTLY soon we won't have money (don't confuse money with debt) and you will not be in the privileged position to have such a view. Australians, the most privileged people on the planet have no idea what they're giving up and it's going to be horrific to watch. By the way James, I don't need a job, I'm filthy rich, having made lots of money by understanding what's going on. It's the young I'm thinking of such as yourself (39?) and any kids you may have. You should travel a bit and have a look at what we're squandering.....

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 11:02AM
    • The GFC amply illustrated that when values of shares and property were reset to the extent that many super funds lost 50% of their book value. As a consequence there are many people who will never be able to retire unless they accept a drastic reduction in the standard they were aiming for. The GFC was caused by the relaxation of regulatory standards in the US financial sector. Now we are about to get a gov't that wants to cut red tape and regulation on business. Fair enough. But let's hope they don't go too far and expose us all again to the lessons already learned. My fear is that they will.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:26AM
    • My fear is that they will.".....I'm certain they will Mitch. They'll transfer what's left of Australia's wealth to multi national companies and leave us, the patsie Australians, working for whatever those companies deem necessary (in line with Asian wages). That was my point yesterday. We've voted for an horrific outcome AGAIN. We are not learning the lessons the rest of the world tried so hard to teach us and the outcome will be far more dire than retirees having 50% of a lot of money. My opinion is the government will nationalise peoples' super (and other wealth) towards the very end of this disaster. I know that sounds extreme but look at what they've done in other countries that have run out of money. We are certain to find ourselves in the same situation and that's what my point has always been. This whole GFC thing is hasn't even started to unfold. You can't fix debt with more debt.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:20PM
  • I'm glad people are getting clowned on MMS. They thought it was an easy one way bet on the election lol What gullible sheep. It's a sneaky grubby stock with a business based on people miss-representing (basically committing fraud) in relation to claimable tax deductions. What a joke.

    Commenter
    Not
    Location
    Impressed
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:57AM
    • and you can thank the ALP for that.!

      Commenter
      Surplus
      Location
      yeah right
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:09AM
    • It was the easiest election bet ever. It got below $7 and was an easy buy around $8 and was an easy sell at $12 leaving money on the table. It may be a rubbish industry but it is ridiculous to say they are committing fraud.

      Commenter
      Sticks
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:18AM
    • @Not. As I recall the ALP was happy with the car rort for 6 years. I don't remember hearing any objections. I said on Monday that it should only apply to locally made cars.

      Commenter
      Bearly Gruntled
      Location
      Land of hot air
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:23AM
    • Still, it has made people a lot of money (not me unfortunately) - look at a 5 year chart.

      Commenter
      tpcam
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:59AM
    • Ok well done to anyone who traded it successfully but you have to admit your activities were in the least a little undignified yes/no?

      Commenter
      Mildly
      Location
      Impressed
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:22PM
    • @mildly...opportunistic is the word!

      Commenter
      Orator
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:21PM
  • I am looking at buying RFG as long term investment. Has a current dividend of approx. 4.5% and growth potential looks promising. Any others have commentary on this stock please?

    Commenter
    Saithong
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:47AM
  • Gotta know when to walk away, know when to run, you don't count your paper profits whilst sittin at the computer, there'll be time enough for counting when the tradings done.

    Commenter
    buysell
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:47AM
  • Big demand for Sydney property from wealthy Chinese. Well, I think they are wealthy. One with debts, is not actually wealthy. See: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-12/chinese-buying-sydney-homes-at-unprecedented-rate-mcgrath-says.html

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:46AM
    • Two problems: 1) There are no stats and anecdotes from agents aren't worth the breath they're spoken with and 2) how come prices are lower than 10 years ago in real terms?

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:14AM
    • I hope you're right Allan but having been a minor clerk in the Public Service who saved millions and then was stabbed in the back and disposed of by psychopathic politicians and ungrateful colleauges, I have zero faith in the FIRB. It is just a toothless tokenistic organisation like ASIC. It only frightens the simplest and most unsophisticated of people. Let's never forget the Chodley Wontok case:

      http://news.domain.com.au/domain/nonexistent-man-granted-leave-to-buy-598000-house-20130327-2gu0p.html

      Commenter
      Catch 22
      Location
      Australia - Asia's Bunny
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:52PM
    • Word in academic circles is that quite a few foreign students have been caught with fake documents in their pr applications. They have had to sell a lot of property especially in Melbourne after being deported. Just one agency had over 200 on their books.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 1:55PM
  • http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-12/chinese-buying-sydney-homes-at-unprecedented-rate-mcgrath-says.html

    All we are doing is creating massive long term social tensions by allowing this. Hope these kleptocrats get badly burned.

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:37AM
    • This is very worrying. How can such blatant non citizen buying up of our land be allowed right under our noses. It's no longer an urban myth or anecdotal evidence but blatantly staring in our faces "let's go direct to China to sell off our land!". Why are our politicians so willing to sell Australian land to foreigners and pretend it's not a problem? And why are Australians so complicit in letting this happen? Our children will hate us

      Commenter
      panda
      Location
      perth
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:40AM
    • They bought half of Europe already. Now it's Australia's turn. ;)

      Commenter
      got brain
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:41AM
  • CSL B65.51 S65.82. Out, not waiting around in this sky-high market. CSL could go higher depending on its buy-back program and macro conditions.

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:28AM
  • Anyone have an opinion on why MMS is struggling?

    Commenter
    Andrew137
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:28AM
    • They seem to be beaten to the post in many public service sectors by an ample field of competitors. I honestly have seen a drop of interest over last 2 years in excitement over salary packaging. Perhaps its cheaper cars...I decided to pay cash and 2k benefit year in year out could not overcome residual issues..anyhow MMS might not never recover regardless of our new leader Tone

      Commenter
      Calia
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:50AM
    • First comments following the proposed FBT changes from the CEO were not very decisive which has obviously caused some caution.

      Commenter
      Saithong
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:52AM
    • I think the whole uncertainty with their revenue loss over the last two months is adding a level of risk. This shouldn't have any impact on the long term though, (assuming libs dont make any changes to FBT) and I think when investors realise this, its stock price will be back at around $14 - $15.

      Commenter
      Kev
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:04AM
    • Sold MMS for $12.63. There is a lack of guidance creating confusion. The directors must be waiting to see if Tony A. does honour his election promise. It was a nice ride with another 20% left in it. Problem is Tony A. and his post election audit are a risk.

      Commenter
      Bearly Gruntled
      Location
      Land of hot air
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:12AM
  • Goodbye MMS, had fun during our brief affair, but its time. Its not me, its you. Perhaps I will give you a call later.

    Commenter
    Sack em all
    Location
    Vic.
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:24AM
    • Me too,sold yesterday for 22% gain.
      Might get in again if it drops.

      Commenter
      Chumlee
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:14AM
    • Sure, sure yesterday... Chum, you can carve it!

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:09PM
    • Another cynical,negative comment from Allan. What is it about his character that makes him feel the need to try to put everyone down?

      Commenter
      Chumlee
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 3:20PM
    • LOL how ironic.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 4:01PM
  • A warning that the party may be coming to an end for bank dividends, and from that share prices, over increased capital requirements. Dividend payout ratios may suffer as "profits may need to be held to meet capital requirements instead of being paid out as dividends."
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/9/12/asx/reality-checkdividends-down-downbank-dividends-chopdont-bank-bank-dividends-4

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:16AM
  • Where's Liberator and his famous shorts? I would have thought this would be the perfect time to jump in!

    Commenter
    AR1
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:14AM
    • He's behind bars. Caught selling assets he does not own.

      Commenter
      lima
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:21AM
    • Hello AR1. Several months ago was a 5240 called short and it went so good, I almost wet my pants. This time, is 5240 my short call... not yet. I had a short XJO order at 5276 in case the O/N trades went nuts. No luck!!! But, shorting is not far away as the QE continues and will soon be culled. Expect next week the US FED WILL NOT turn off the tap. Except market to sit at this range for another 4 weeks. If QE tapering is confirmed AT ALL next week. SHORT NO MATTER WHAT.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:28AM
    • @AR1...you need cash to trade!

      Commenter
      Shorters Dilemma
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:30AM
    • They will taper Lib. It will be just $10b lopped off though. Don't expect too much action....small sell-off. Buying opportunity!

      Commenter
      heybert
      Location
      Sesame Street
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:44AM
    • Good to hear from you Lib! I've missed your updates...
      Lima- look out below! Back down to 5000.

      Commenter
      AR1
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:53AM
    • Once the pre-FY13 sell off occurred, I made my money and that was that. No point trying to trade on hype and over optimism. Shorting will nuke the ASX and that is not far away. Just be ready. I would be disappointed if a short was missed again at 5240 top high...

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:48PM
  • Did you know BHP is poised to start mining rice paper in Costa Rica and exporting to China? FALSE......don't believe everything you saw on ABC 3.

    Commenter
    Dwight Schrute
    Location
    Dunder Mifflin, Scranton
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:05AM
    • I heard they are thinking of branching out into Agriculture....something about planting Spaghetti Trees.... :-)

      Commenter
      mirage
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 11:10AM
  • Aus shares are set to fall for no other reason than they had the temerity to approach a new high. Its what Sir Alex Ferguson calls squeeky bum time.

    Commenter
    The skys falling - yeah right !
    Location
    Vic.
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:02AM
    • The weak kneed will be bailing big time today hahaha and the piranhas will feed next week. love it!

      Commenter
      Investors Delight
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:34AM
  • Friday the 13th. Sell 'em - sell 'em all!

    Commenter
    50BahtLeo
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 10:01AM
    • Ha!

      Commenter
      Fan
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:49AM
    • cash in a few shares and spoil yourself at soi cowboy tonight, will be doing the same same in 2 weeks, yahoo

      Commenter
      thaksin
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 12:21PM
  • I'm down a pip on BGS.....not crying over that just yet.

    Thanks for being there for me.

    Commenter
    heybert
    Location
    Sesame Street
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 9:56AM
    • In reply to our Supportive Friend below.

      Commenter
      heybert
      Location
      Sesame Street
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:18AM
  • US down 0.2, ASX will translate this with its usual chicken little approach to at least 0.5.

    Commenter
    The skys falling - yeah right !
    Location
    Vic.
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 9:54AM
  • Very-short to short term. Long CSL, short MYR

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 9:52AM
  • Hi Eds
    I really used to enjoy the "change of broker recommendations" in the "need to know" posting. Any chance of getting it back?

    ED: Yep, it will be back. Stay tuned (aiming for next week...)

    Commenter
    Long Buffet
    Location
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 9:44AM
  • Who stayed in the short term gold miner trade too long? Are you crying in your corn flakes wishing you sold SLR for $1.05 when you had the chance?

    Commenter
    Supportive
    Location
    Friend
    Date and time
    September 13, 2013, 9:36AM
    • the superdooper top picker goes to....

      Commenter
      WheAreThesePeople
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 9:54AM
    • Gold began to rise a month back as shorters were covering themselves. Then Egypt introduced uncertainty and more recently Syria. Obama needs to drag this gas business out for as long as possible. Gold may be fading but don't rule out a short term lift when negotiations begin to bog down. I gave up on gold with NCM.

      Commenter
      Bearly Gruntled
      Location
      Land of hot air
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 9:57AM
    • The markets will fluctuate: J.P. Morgan. It favours no-one.

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:00AM
    • It is not the end of the world.

      Commenter
      oi
      Location
      Date and time
      September 13, 2013, 10:16AM
Comments are now closed