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Markets Live: Dollar drops below US93c

Date

Patrick Commins, Jens Meyer

Shares reversed early losses, powered by Telstra and a turnaround in the miners, while the dollar weakened as the RBA kept rates steady.

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  • Mattias Cormann claims that we are entering a golden age because the $100 million mining tax is gorn. Can anyone explain,please?

    Commenter
    Wally
    Location
    Flynn
    Date and time
    September 02, 2014, 4:49PM
    • So if over 50% of the population will be dead by the time they can get access to their super Clive obviously thinks it's ok to shortchange widows & orphans who would have been entitled to that super as beneficiaries. Not a good look Clive. I trust your family is well provided for.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Date and time
      September 02, 2014, 4:05PM
      • ......... if it wasn't Clive it would be someone else. Everyone's super is up for grabs by the government.... I suppose you forget Labor's tries to tax the hell out of it via exit fees......

        Regardless of party/colour etc. the government is going to, by hook or crook, take anything not nailed down....

        Commenter
        Bye Bye Fiat Money
        Date and time
        September 02, 2014, 4:20PM
      • Hi Mitch, no worries Clive and his family are all looked after.

        Commenter
        Viking
        Location
        Sydney
        Date and time
        September 02, 2014, 4:23PM
    • Malaysian press report that Lynas (LYC) rare earth producer has been granted a permanent operating licence
      http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/273383

      Commenter
      vorhrta
      Date and time
      September 02, 2014, 4:03PM
      • "Coles plans to cut between 500 and 600 jobs" This is WES strategy give back loads of cash to shareholders and then kick their workers and apparently outsource IT like Pacific Brands.

        Let's get one thing straight no company has ever in history been able to cut itself to excellence. The only way is growing and WES is not. With the current strategy WES is dead.

        Commenter
        Viking
        Location
        Sydney
        Date and time
        September 02, 2014, 2:59PM
        • WES is a buy below $35 and a sell above $50, it's trading within value.

          Commenter
          :)
          Date and time
          September 02, 2014, 3:40PM
        • @Viking and no country has ever contracted itself to prosperity, but that isn't holding the Coalition back. At the end of this term of gov't the deficit will be bigger than when they started from both a contracting economy reducing tax collections and increasing welfare payments to the army of newly unemployed. No wonder they want to make it harder to get the dole for the under 30s.

          Commenter
          mitch of ACT
          Date and time
          September 02, 2014, 3:45PM
        • We should print our way to prosperity, like the Chinese with their massive post 2008 stimulus and all their empty apartment buildings, because doubling down on misallocations of captial don't lead to more misallocations of capital...

          Remember what your pal said mitch "This is the recession Australia had to have".... for 2015 -> circa 2021 change the "r" word with a "d" word, net out inflation, then look @ real GDP (whether via cheap money or not).

          Commenter
          Bye Bye Fiat Money
          Date and time
          September 02, 2014, 4:19PM
      • @2:48pm - with all these job cuts in Melbourne over the last 12 months I’m surprised house prices haven’t taken a hit. Certainly don’t want to move there with the rate of corporate HQ jobs being cut.

        Commenter
        DR
        Location
        Clovelly
        Date and time
        September 02, 2014, 2:52PM
        • "Australia takes lead in housing race". Well done Straya we are punching well above our weight right?

          Commenter
          Viking
          Location
          Sydney
          Date and time
          September 02, 2014, 2:50PM
          • Ouch
            my first actual day trade loss in 10 years
            sold out ANZ last Friday at 33.42 because of perceived Ru threat
            Seems the world is shrugging, had to buy back in 33.56 today over 6k down, drat
            Should I bill Putin, or be red faced

            Commenter
            stu
            Date and time
            September 02, 2014, 2:44PM
            • 1,000 Sep 33 puts went thru on the bid side when ANZ hit the highs. You might have top ticked it!

              Commenter
              50BahtLeo
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 2:52PM
            • Spoiled your record eh @stu.

              I have never lost yet!

              Commenter
              Mister100%
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 2:56PM
            • Sold out of all the banks today. I'm a positive person, but the last ten years aren't going to happen again. Even the most optimistic forecaster is only hoping current house prices will hold.

              Commenter
              Peter
              Location
              Oz
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 3:35PM
            • I hardly know what a put is, sorry
              Well they did hold at the close

              It is hard to see them no going on to all time highs
              Mike Smith did say they were on track and do not forget, ANZ is not just in Au

              It is all fly by seat pants stuff anyways
              Yes my portfolio has been flat for a long time now

              Commenter
              stu
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 4:20PM
          • Great to see Enron is making a comeback. We're back baby, we're back....

            Commenter
            Lehman Bros
            Location
            NY
            Date and time
            September 02, 2014, 2:15PM
            • And I've managed to get the Alibaba IPO away .. hehe

              Commenter
              Jack Ma
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 2:23PM
            • Enron's not making a comeback - Arthur Andersen is in the form of Andersen Tax. What giant egos to think that they can rise above the scandal and go back in time to capitalise on their pre-scandal reputation. Their branding consultant should be dragged out and shot

              Commenter
              doglover
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 2:25PM
          • When the Beagle sailed into Sydney Harbour in January 1836, Charles Darwin wrote: ‘The number of large
            houses and other buildings just finished was truly surprising; nevertheless, every one complained of the high
            rents and the difficulty in procuring a house’.

            Commenter
            Don't get mad
            Location
            just some history for you
            Date and time
            September 02, 2014, 2:13PM
            • Quite right indeed. Furthermore it was also Darwin who said that the Australian people will eventually undergo metamorphosis, loosing their arms due to non-productiveness and growing square eyes due to property speculation...I think he called this new species...Sino buttus kissus.

              Commenter
              Biologist
              Location
              Sydney
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 2:37PM
          • Re the article at 1:37pm on Morgan Stanley predicting a bright future for Origin from its LNG assets. Wasn't there an article on here just a few days ago that the prospects for sales of LNG from Australia were dimming due to booming supply from the US that would depress prices. I usually keep links to such articles but let that one slip by. Perhaps the Eds can find it.

            Eds: Hi Mitch. It's a point of keen debate, alright. The article is probably this one: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/chevrons-gorgon-the-latest-lng-megaproject-hit-by-usfuelled-gas-boom-20140827-108xwv.html. But if you google "US gas prices threaten Australian LNG projects" (just by way of example) there are many more of the same ilk. Chrs

            Commenter
            mitch of ACT
            Date and time
            September 02, 2014, 2:12PM
            • Mining tax is gone, suppose @Mitch will say they should have waited until after the market closed to announce that!

              Commenter
              twiggy
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 2:08PM
              • Why, the intention to scrap the mining tax was well known. A gas discovery was not.
                I remember when Hockey announced to a room full of financial types the gov'ts intention to lift foreign ownership requirements on Qantas. The share price of QAN reacted significantly immediately. Such a market sensitive announcement should never have been made in that way, That would be like the Budget lock-up allowing phones in.

                Commenter
                mitch of ACT
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 2:28PM
            • Get ready for the market's reaction when Glenn says interest rates are down!

              Commenter
              Xenaphon
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 1:24PM
              • With unemployment heading up, inflation within the Reserve Bank's target band, and the currency stubbornly high, it makes perfect sense to lower interest rates in 2014

                Commenter
                Andy Gracey
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 1:40PM
              • Down? They are 2.0% lower then where they should be.

                Commenter
                DJ77
                Location
                Sydney
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 1:52PM
              • Yes not the usual drive down the shares before the RBA announcement trading today. Remember a few years ago when the RBA cut rates by 50 basis points in September? What a rally that afternoon! Hope it happens again!

                Commenter
                It's All About Making Money
                Location
                Lennox Hd
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 1:55PM
              • They're not going down.

                Commenter
                JohnBB
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 2:04PM
              • Not today, maybe in a few months.... depends how the end of this year pans out as such...

                2c + fire

                Commenter
                Bye Bye Fiat Money
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 2:13PM
              • I'm tipping by March next year to ward off the Hockeynomics recession.

                Commenter
                mitch of ACT
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 2:33PM
              • I don't think they'll cut in March when Yellen is going to raise or to ward off your nonsense hockeynomics recession. They'll cut due to other reasons, as someone said a few weeks/month ago, watch the USD/AUD, and i'll add the XVI.

                Commenter
                Bye Bye Fiat Money
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 3:44PM
            • Got to love ORG, 52 week high yesterday and now showing off and up another 2.49% to over $16.00

              The bloke who added to his shorts might be just about to lose his shirt on this little ripper!

              Commenter
              ORGan donor
              Date and time
              September 02, 2014, 12:50PM
              • Okay IPL and AWC, what is going on with those massive jumps?

                Commenter
                Dave
                Location
                Brisvegas
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 12:15PM
                • Just sit back and enjoy - its been a while!

                  Commenter
                  Greg
                  Date and time
                  September 02, 2014, 12:46PM
              • CCV

                Anybody know why CCV has dropped so much today? -3.8% A court case? What does it mean? thanks,

                Commenter
                It's All About Making Money
                Location
                Lennox Hd
                Date and time
                September 02, 2014, 12:14PM
                • "Ratings agency Moody's is the latest to issue a warning on home lending in Australia, saying the rise in higher-risk loans is "credit negative" for Australia's banks."

                  Housing boom!

                  Commenter
                  Allan
                  Location
                  Prahran
                  Date and time
                  September 02, 2014, 12:14PM
                  • How's this December 2012 prediction going Al?

                    "My post from June:

                    "Australia is an expensive place to do business, high costs and low productivity. House prices are going down and all the overgeared little landlords will default and trigger a series of huge write downs in the banks. AORD 2500 anyone?"

                    And guess what? The economy has deteriorated significantly since then, interest rates are a GFC emergency lows, house prices are still falling and the Spring selling season was a dud.

                    2500? is clearly predicated on the housing bust. The AORD is worth @ 3200 on earnings and a the housing bust could easily push it down to 2500.

                    And that would be @ 1997 levels whch is where house prices should be.

                    Enjoy!

                    CommenterAllanLocationPrahranDate and timeDecember 12, 2012, 5:27PM"

                    Commenter
                    Tim
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 12:28PM
                  • Yep all true thanks for reminding us all.

                    Oh and guess what since then unemployment has hit a 12 year high, real house prices have peaked and been flat for 4 years and iron ore and coal prices have crashed.

                    Tra la la la la....

                    Commenter
                    Allan
                    Location
                    Prahran
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 12:52PM
                  • Tim said yesterday house prices have double since 2010? Care to provide the evidence Timmy?

                    Commenter
                    magic pudding
                    Location
                    get in the bowl
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 12:57PM
                  • Magic Pudding, I think somebody may have commented under my post that house prices have doubled since 2010. Maybe spend a bit more time reading than asking me to provide evidence for something that I never said?

                    Allan you are now only 125% off the mark with your market prediction. Well done.

                    Commenter
                    Tim
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 1:16PM
                  • It'll be interesting to see how the great housing ponzi goes once the great mining boom inevitably becomes history in the next couple of years.

                    Commenter
                    Jim
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 1:56PM
                  • Nope because that prediction is predicated on the housing bust which is on its way. Maybe spend a bit more time reading what's written instead of what you imagine is written. And also maybe calm down a bit. The bubble will burst. Just have some patience.

                    Commenter
                    Allan
                    Location
                    Prahran
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 4:35PM
                • Down .09% when I go to make a coffee (which is a darn good result considering Cochlear, which is almost 25% (portfolio theory be darned!) of my holdings went ex-dividend today), came back 20 minutes later, up .4%. What did I miss? On another note, my new Treadmill desk arrived today. Lovely!

                  Commenter
                  Dave
                  Location
                  Brisvegas
                  Date and time
                  September 02, 2014, 12:13PM
                  • "Deficit widens to $13.74 billion for June quarter"

                    Housing boom!

                    Commenter
                    Allan
                    Location
                    Prahran
                    Date and time
                    September 02, 2014, 12:12PM
                      • What chance RBA takes the baseball bat the the Aussie and surprise rate cut Economy needs the aussie down or we come to a full stop and its starting to show through the numbers - employment - deficit...

                        Commenter
                        Greg
                        Date and time
                        September 02, 2014, 12:44PM
                      • I agree. Indications are there that it's time for a cut. Unemployment is rising and the rate can only increase while the high $A impedes manufacturing. Higher unemployment will shrink the economy and increase the deficit from the twin evils of falling tax revenue and higher welfare payments to the newly unemployed. The housing market will boom but that must be curtailed by stricter lending requirements and higher deposits being required for bank finance.

                        Commenter
                        mitch of ACT
                        Date and time
                        September 02, 2014, 1:16PM
                    • Re dollar at 11.30 - another currency I watch took the same hit v USD. May be USD reaction rather than reaction to AUD news.

                      Commenter
                      Green Sheep
                      Location
                      not from there
                      Date and time
                      September 02, 2014, 11:57AM
                      • If you want to invest always take the time to learn and educate yourself on basic accounting principles so you can understand a balance sheet.There is no shortcut to learning.

                        Don't rely on blogs like this including my companys suggestions.

                        Verify and analyse yourself.

                        There are totally misleading and ridiculous comments about stocks and past histories of economic indicators often on this site.

                        Ignore the grandstand comments they are there because they have never entered the arena.

                        Commenter
                        Harry Rogers
                        Date and time
                        September 02, 2014, 11:53AM
                        • Why is MYX so unloved? Everything I read about it is good - good results for last reporting period and good prospects for the future, but the share price just keeps grinding down...
                          Anybody know a reason for this?

                          Commenter
                          doglover
                          Date and time
                          September 02, 2014, 11:51AM
                          • On my list as well doglover. For what its worth charts indicate further weakness.The stock can bounce unexpectedly but like DLS MML the trend appears to be down for now. I reckon 72 u would have to have a crack.

                            Commenter
                            Ox
                            Location
                            Kensi Pk
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 12:28PM
                          • punished for not sharing the wealth around ie divd = 0 after such a good report.

                            Commenter
                            BearshapedBull
                            Location
                            Mugpunters Lounge
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 1:20PM
                          • A broker slapped a sell on about 3 months ago with a target price of .80c. Probably the reason.

                            Commenter
                            Richard
                            Location
                            Melbourne
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 1:30PM
                          • Thanks for responses. I thought that there must be something more sinister that I just couldn't sniff out. Happy to hold long term

                            Commenter
                            doglover
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 2:37PM
                        • I wonder why AWE didn't ask for a Trading Halt before the start of trade re the announcement at 10:56am of a significant new gas discovery. Surely the gas was discovered before the start of trade. Those who sold into the market at the pre-announcement price are regretting acting on incomplete knowledge.

                          Commenter
                          mitch of ACT
                          Date and time
                          September 02, 2014, 11:39AM
                          • sounds like you are caught up in the squeeze

                            Commenter
                            squeezer
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 11:51AM
                          • never mind dear, SBM are up 15%, yippee!

                            Commenter
                            barbara
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 11:55AM
                          • Who cares? The same could be said for people who sold yesterday.

                            Commenter
                            Tim
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 11:57AM
                          • @squeezer, No. Never owned. Just amazed at the number of times companies with significant news to be announced allow trading to open as normal then make the announcement.. But then I suppose if ASX &/orASIC doesn't crack down on the practice uninformed markets are ok.

                            Commenter
                            mitch of ACT
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 12:45PM
                          • that's funny, thought it was one of your "W" stocks?

                            Commenter
                            squeezer
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 1:15PM
                        • MTU going side ways, will have to lock in profits soon, time is money!!! So ARI is still fighting to stay above 77c, is this a buying opportunity? I'm thinking it can go either way, more risk in sliding down further, especially when this rally runs out of puff. Thoughts? Also watching JBH go sideways now, its either going to have a break out up or down, worth a bet?

                          Commenter
                          Happy
                          Location
                          Trader
                          Date and time
                          September 02, 2014, 11:23AM
                          • Thanks Happy always interested in others opinions on STOCKS. I can't keep up with them all.

                            Thanks.

                            Commenter
                            Harry Rogers
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 11:58AM
                        • Hope everyone has got their shares in TAP. Should start production soon and $1 per share shouldn't be far off.

                          Commenter
                          DJBB
                          Location
                          THE SHIRE
                          Date and time
                          September 02, 2014, 11:16AM
                          • Just in case someone is interested in good listed companies with rising values, rather than predicting the next crash, I have been a long term holder of TFC for some years and they have now confirmed the fruit of their long term agribusiness vision. The stock price is responding accordingly and the potential for further gains of several hundred per cent is present if the company keeps doing the same things and the world keeps placing a high value on sandalwood oil. TFC may be the best agribusiness opportunity on our listed market. But if you are too busy checking out the price of apartments in Beijing or Manhattan to have a look, never mind. Your predictions of doom for Australia, made with 100% certainty, will no doubt come true eventually, particularly if you give yourself 20 years to be 100% right.

                            Commenter
                            billyw
                            Location
                            avalon
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 11:07AM
                            • Keep pumping, you might strike oil, sandalwood oil in this case.

                              Commenter
                              mitch of ACT
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 11:32AM
                            • Pumping? As if anyone on this site would move the price. Sharing the good news buddy, confident that you will not be listening.

                              Commenter
                              billyw
                              Location
                              avalon
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 11:48AM
                            • My first response about this share was also sceptical when Billy talked about it a couple of weeks ago, but if you read up on it, it seems to have great prospects and is in a niche market. Who would have thought there would be money in sandalwood oil, but they have improved their techniques and are making a name for themselves in the international market. I'm not pumping this stock, but it's a bit harsh to slap someone down for sharing information when they have picked up on a good stock that is generally not well known.

                              Commenter
                              doglover
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:21PM
                            • Thanks ..Had a look interesting P/E.

                              Commenter
                              Harry Rogers
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:33PM
                            • This company's business model does remind me of Great Southern & Timbercorp in that it has MIS (Managed Investment Scheme) participants. But to its credit it also owns a significant ppn of its plantations. As others have said it is maturing now, along with its trees, and should start to produce good results. It has been on my watchlist for a while but so fare only out of curiousity.

                              Commenter
                              mitch of ACT
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:54PM
                            • Great company with a fantastic product pipeline running through to 2018. But returns of several hundred percent are unlikely if you ask me.

                              Current TFC target price - $3.10

                              Commenter
                              Jimmy
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 1:58PM
                          • No. 1 - That's in the Bronx probably one of the worst suburbs in New York, you are adviced not the travel there at night. Not what I would call premium.
                            No. 2 it is a box 4 rooms and only 60 square metres.
                            No. 3 Bottom picking the lowest priced property in New York doesn't create a compelling arguement.

                            Also please read the following New York RE report, it might give you an idea for a change:

                            http://ny.curbed.com/tags/market-reports

                            Commenter
                            I'm 100% confident
                            Location
                            You know nothing about real estate!!
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 11:04AM
                            • Here here.

                              Commenter
                              Bill
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 11:34AM
                          • "Iron ore slips 0.9% to $US87.10 per metric tonne"

                            Iron ore is not rare you know and there is vast amo8nts of new supply coming onstream.

                            Oh and the long term average price is @ $30/MT. Can FMG repay its multi billions dollar loans at that price?

                            Commenter
                            Allan
                            Location
                            Prahran
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 10:38AM
                            • Not sure who is happier the steel mills or BHP/RIO execs who are digging and shipping as fast as they can to drive out the high cost suppliers - watch for big boys acquiring "worthless" ore assets near their infrastructure as the price squeeze bites

                              Commenter
                              Greg
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 11:51AM
                            • Yes iron ore is not rare, in fact it is one of the most abundant minerals on earth.

                              The problem is digging it up and shipping it out economically and Australia does that better and cheaper than most others.

                              Yes FMG may have a problem, maybe, but BHP and RIO will always be the lowest cost producers and be the last ones standing.

                              Commenter
                              SamR
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:00PM
                            • The long term average of the AUD is 47c. Relevance ......????? My my!

                              Commenter
                              Harry Rogers
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:36PM
                            • "The long term average of the AUD is 47c"

                              No it isn't. Not even close.

                              Commenter
                              Allan
                              Location
                              Prahran
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:58PM
                            • And the Euro was AUD2.05 let me just check the Lithuanian currency in 1949 so we can get some real relevance to this issue.?????

                              Must be something there which relates to iron ore pricing today....

                              Commenter
                              Harry Rogers
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 1:27PM
                            • It's halved in a couple of years. Expect the same over the next couple of years. That's the relevance.

                              Commenter
                              Allan
                              Location
                              Prahran
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 2:41PM
                            • And that's it? That's the relevance? Wow !

                              Commenter
                              Harry Rogers
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 4:13PM
                            • Iron ore price today is irrelevant. FMG need highly inflated prices for years to pay off their billions in debt.

                              Commenter
                              Allan
                              Location
                              Prahran
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 4:30PM
                            • So now we are told "highly inflated "prices are such that they are not called market prices.

                              Strange idea! Must be a guru out there who knows what acceptable prices are for everything irrelevant of what market pays. Hmm.. anything else that we can gather?

                              Commenter
                              Harry Rogers
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 4:48PM
                            • Oops now I get it the iron ore price now or in the past has nothing to do with any mining company ability to pay back debt.

                              Also interest rates and the terms of the companys debt has nothing to do with its ability to repay.

                              Now I see...

                              Commenter
                              Harry Rogers
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 4:53PM
                          • Qantas back to profit before Virgin.
                            No chance. The higher costs for Qantas are a juggernaught trying to turn. Virgin is and has been a much lighter and agile beast, it will change direction much easier.

                            Wouldn't invest in either.

                            Have done previously (in both) and regretted it. Won't be doing it again.

                            Commenter
                            Joe the POM
                            Location
                            Geelong
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 10:37AM
                            • virgin is really going down market. no meals on evening flights available. tried to charge me twice for complimentary drinks. and not even a cracker and piece of cheese for flexi fliers anymore. business class meals are very very ordinary.
                              now they have sold off a giant chunk of their frequent flyer points to a private equity firm they will go down hill quickly. I will be using everything I have and start looking at other options sooner rather than later. private equity means slash and burn.

                              Commenter
                              smilingjack
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 11:04AM
                            • @smilingjack: news for you, there is no alternative. Enjoy.

                              Commenter
                              DR
                              Location
                              Clovelly
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 2:48PM
                          • "First-home buying has plunged to a four-year low"

                            Housing boom!

                            Oh and apparently house prices have doubled since I called the top in Jan 2011. The RBA says they have dropped in real terms but our spruiker yesterday knows better,

                            Commenter
                            Allan
                            Location
                            Prahran
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 10:35AM
                            • Said one spruiker to another....

                              Commenter
                              Another One
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 11:21AM
                            • Yeah, so imagine the huge growing number of first home buyers just sitting on the sidelines.
                              Once there is a dip in prices, they will be in. We now have a confirmed support / floor for the market.
                              I was very bearish on property prices, but now I am not so sure..........

                              Commenter
                              Irish Phil
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:02PM
                            • @irish phil.
                              it's an interesting theory. and one i used to subscribe to. then i put a few other things in perspective:
                              - resistance to jump in during a perceived falling market
                              - potentially less $ for deposit with youth unemployment on the rise and tertiary education fees set to increase further
                              - potentially less $ for deposit having decided to invest in other sectors
                              - growing trend among younger generation that property ownership is not the be all / end all

                              Commenter
                              brian
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 12:18PM
                            • And don't forget that biological clock. The longer couples wait to buy a house, the more likely the woman has decided it's now or never to start a family. Once the first baby arrives the possibility of keeping or saving a good deposit gets hung out to dry along with the nappies.

                              Commenter
                              mitch of ACT
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 1:00PM
                            • @Irish Phil: Now you just need to determine if that "floor" is at 5% or 30% of current values.

                              Commenter
                              DR
                              Location
                              Clovelly
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 2:43PM
                          • "Since the beginning of 2009, we have seen values rise by a cumulative 50.1 per cent and 46.1 per cent, respectively, in Sydney and Melbourne,"
                            Yikes!!!
                            Go long on the banks or resi housing - both look expensive. What happened to the 40% decline that keen came up with? Including rent money, he must be 400k down on that flat he sold. Expensive mistake on a uni salary

                            Commenter
                            Pete
                            Date and time
                            September 02, 2014, 10:25AM
                            • @Nick from Sydney...."Australians are net creditors in relation to property held. We own more overseas than foreigners own in Australia so no real cause for concern"....I'd love to know more about that....My first reaction is the globes richest people want to buy here, so effectively pushing most Australians out no matter that rich Australians own elsewhere....It's the governments job to look after everyone, not just the rich.

                              Hey Liberator, what's your view about what's happening in employment and housing in SEQLD?

                              Commenter
                              JohnBB
                              Date and time
                              September 02, 2014, 10:20AM
                              • @It's All About Making Money....Too funny..... What if we're right?...

                                ......"Best to stay with tide trend from my experience until the tide turns"....Couldn't agree more.

                                Commenter
                                JohnBB
                                Date and time
                                September 02, 2014, 10:18AM
                                • Hi JohnBB. Yes i have been stung too many times thinking the trend is changing up or down to try and anticipate it anymore. As recently as last May I anticipated a downturn and took a few shorts and lost some money. I go short and long so the longs far outweighed the shorts. It has been a good period overall.
                                  The "investment clock" generally sees a fall in shares and property after interest rates start to rise (for a while), true from my experience. Interest rates are very low and after rates start to rise for a while perhaps then a market correction. Good rates in the bank is safer than assets. Money chases yield and safety.
                                  The world has a debt problem. The easiest way for debt to go away is to inflate asset prices. Debt level=debt/assets. Increase assets and the debt level decreases, maths. Governments around the world are keeping rates low to increase asset levels.
                                  Impossible to bet against this one.
                                  The world powers won't let their economies fail unless it is impossible not to stop it. The amount of borrowing could become so great that economies do fail but with so many fighting against this it is hard to see it happening soon.
                                  Stop losses are great as they can tell one when the market tide does turn. I like the old trader stops of the Countback Method (lower than the last 3 highs and higher than the last three lows for a turn up).
                                  I think you will be right eventually as markets do work in cycles, unfortunately. The market will correct down at some stage. However as it is still trending up it is the safe direction for me to take now. Happy to go short once it rolls over.

                                  Commenter
                                  It's All About Making Money
                                  Location
                                  Lennox Hd
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 11:12AM
                                • @It's All About Making Money....Well said.

                                  It's most important for any new investors you mentioned know this is what's happening and it's not all normal...I feel they're lambs to the slaughter and will be punished instead of the people that designed the impending failure.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 11:42AM
                              • The "Tone" is changing...
                                at one point in recent times the markets live blog used to be about stocks & the market. Now fast becoming a less relevant reference point,might try just reading whats on the left for awhile.

                                Commenter
                                BearshapedBull
                                Location
                                Mugpunters Lounge
                                Date and time
                                September 02, 2014, 10:16AM
                                • It's gone to the dogs this week! Are we the only ones trading or interested in shares? lol

                                  Commenter
                                  GS
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:29AM
                                • @BearshapedBull...Then you'd miss all the information that should hopefully help you make financial saving decisions....You're just far too positive for your own good.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:36AM
                                • It's all interrelated bear.....Residing in the Mugpunters lounge only reading purely finance stuff will destroy your wealth.... More than anything (which I don't talk about much...seriously) is politics...It drives finance more than any other factor by far. Want to be rich? Follow what the policy makers are doing.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:47AM
                              • The Tone is changing because change is coming. Australians have had enough. Existing legislation provides for the confiscation of illegally bought properties, it also provides for agents to be prosecuted.

                                John McGrath 2013.....“unprecedented” with “as much as 80 per cent of homes in parts of Sydney…being sold to Chinese buyers...real estate agents and property lawyers are willingly helping foreign investors to illegally buy prestige homes in Melbourne and Sydney” and that this was “causing a domino effect” ”, INFLATING PRICES

                                John McGrath 2014......“Chinese buyers who purchase through our agents always do so through legitimate methods...strongly disagreed that Asian buyers paid a premium for property” NOT INFLATING PRICES

                                Commenter
                                JohnBB
                                Date and time
                                September 02, 2014, 9:57AM
                                • without Chinese buyers, the property price would drop at least 20 %.
                                  Both State and Fed governments are relying on the property boom, more jobs and more tax they collect. Who cares if they are legal transaction or not.

                                  Commenter
                                  wil
                                  Location
                                  melb
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:21AM
                                • @Wil. oh about 20%. Really? I'd love some links to some authenticated research papers on how you arrives at your conclusion. Links or some titles will do, and please no macro or daily reackoning crap!

                                  Commenter
                                  Links
                                  Location
                                  Please :)
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:31AM
                                • @Links...When compared globally, We're more than 50% over priced in terms of rent (a true measure of demand and capacity to pay) and from memory 25% overpriced on extremely trumped up wages....Do your own link finds. Not sure it's so smart riding off publications because they don't agree with your investment strategies.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:58AM
                              • Dow up ASX up one tenth of Dow
                                Dow down ASX down as much (%)
                                Dow closed ASX down.

                                Commenter
                                Peter
                                Location
                                Sydney
                                Date and time
                                September 02, 2014, 9:55AM
                                • Not quite. I remember a while ago, a year back in the thirties, while the Harbour Bridge was being opened there was a day that week where that didn't happen.

                                  Commenter
                                  1930's
                                  Location
                                  Cairns
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 11:35AM
                                • WOW Second time in almost a century !

                                  Commenter
                                  Dave
                                  Location
                                  Bathurst
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 3:52PM
                              • Most expensive RE on the planet....Manhattan Island 2 bed..60m squared = US $195k...or is it?..I'm not sure you'd get that anywhere in Sydney...Normal market? Don't think so.

                                Commenter
                                JohnBB
                                Date and time
                                September 02, 2014, 9:30AM
                                • Manhattan is a little island at the centre of a true global city. Sydney is a jumped up, loud mouthed hick town dominated by an globally uncompetitive, largely domestic FIRE industry, supported by massive government guarantees and subsidies that are many times greater than anything manufacturing has got in recent decades.

                                  Commenter
                                  Jim
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 9:54AM
                                • Certainly not normal. 660k+ for a 2 bedder in Mascot Sydney is out of this world, many crazy examples in other Sydney suburbs as well.

                                  With the pi*s*d poor yield of 2 - 3 % before tax, I can't see capital gain benefit nor yield. Who's still buying ?

                                  Commenter
                                  got brain
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 9:56AM
                                • Don't know why you continue to compare apples to oranges but from CNBC:

                                  "The average sales price for apartments in New York City jumped 15 percent in the first quarter to $1,773,523......"

                                  Any apartment there you can buy for $195K better include buyer's choice of self-defence weapons.

                                  Time to increase the meds.

                                  Commenter
                                  4Seam
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:03AM
                                • You got a link Johnny boy??

                                  Commenter
                                  Link??
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:05AM
                                • Where are you finding these prices JohnBB. The RE sites I have seen have houses in downtown Manhatten up in the millions.

                                  Commenter
                                  don don
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:05AM
                                • and don't talk to me about rent. Rent in downtown was greater than my mortgage repayments for a 4 bed house in Sydney.

                                  Commenter
                                  don don
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:07AM
                                • @JohnBB, send us a link I would be interested in scooping up this bargain, as long as it isn't in a ghetto, given the fact your much more likely to be shot in the USA.

                                  Commenter
                                  Links
                                  Location
                                  Please :)
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:16AM
                                • malcom and lucy turnbull bought an apartment there about 2 years back. it wasnt cheap as it was within a 10 minute walk to the UN HQ. He is one smart cookie. as it will be unoccupied often I offered to house sit for him but he never returned my calls. Go figure.

                                  http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/17675-friday-flicker-5-turn.html

                                  Commenter
                                  smilingjack
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:16AM
                                • Quick search on behalf of JohnBB

                                  Here is the link:

                                  http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/930-Saint-Nicholas-Ave-Apt-33_New-York_NY_10032_M43506-80155?row=5

                                  Commenter
                                  got brain
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:19AM
                                • thats about 150 sqm's if my calculations are correct.

                                  Commenter
                                  smilingjack
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:20AM
                                • @4Seam....Cherry picking data aren't you?...Average means absolutely nothing...I'm talking minimum..Can you buy in premium Sydney for anywhere near US$195k? Maybe 4 or 5 times that..Maybe be a bit more humble and admit you're wrong instead of attacking me.

                                  I've found tens of them...Not sure why no one else can find them.........http://www.century21.com/

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:29AM
                                • that is in the bronx.

                                  Commenter
                                  don don
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:31AM
                                • Thanks got brain....Makes Sydney look horrifically expensive doesn't it?

                                  What about Dubbo, Adelaide? All of Australia's eggs are in the most inflated RE prices in the world....Look out below.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:39AM
                                • You still haven't provided a link but the one referenced is in Washington Heights - there's some cherry picking for you!

                                  Commenter
                                  4Seam
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:58AM
                                • Oh we're STILL arguing if it's real? It's real, as shocking as that is for you.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 11:09AM
                                • This is where John's apartment is -
                                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
                                  Washington_Heights,_Manhattan

                                  Commenter
                                  TP
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 11:17AM
                                • Help me out here JohnBB, I am searching in Manhattan.
                                  This one is not even close to the most expensive:
                                  http://www.century21.com/property/247-west-46th-street-3802-new-york-ny-10036-REN013691875

                                  Commenter
                                  Irish Phil
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 12:11PM
                                • http://www.century21.com/property/630-first-avenue-8-e-new-york--10016-REN014906471

                                  Commenter
                                  Irish Phil
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 12:19PM
                                • Here's a nice place for you Phil -
                                  http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/
                                  211-Central-Park-W-17-18J1-
                                  New-York-NY-10024/2105417942
                                  _zpid/

                                  Commenter
                                  TP
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 3:03PM
                              • Given our present internet is way faster than what we could possibly CURRENTLY need. Why are people talking about lack of speed?..."because you might soon see Romania overtake Australia"....Is it a competition or is it needed for something? and if so what? Just admit it's for fun isn't it...There's no commercial need for any more speed. If there were those business's could locate themselves to get more speed. It's certainly not needed in everyone's home and business.

                                Commenter
                                JohnBB
                                Date and time
                                September 02, 2014, 9:23AM
                                • @JohnBB you'd be at home in the 1920's when homes only had 1 power point. No need for any more back then. Now every house has at least 2-3 power points in every room.
                                  The danger is that businesses could very well re-locate to places where they had access to faster internet and take their jobs with them. I suppose dial-up here would almost be good enough to apply for the dole online.

                                  Commenter
                                  mitch of ACT
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 9:45AM
                                • I can tell you from personal experience that speeds in Stockholm is now over 100mbps on average vs Sydney 16mbps. The speed adds significantly in increasing work productivity e.g. you cannot trade in real time in Sweden with 16mbps as you are simply not fast enough and your orders will be last in being executed. The new digital economy is all based on higher speeds in product development e.g. 3d printing, high tech manufacturing, robots, but also in the day-to-day activities in office just to execute normal tasks takes much longer in Australia. I have noticed networks are not reliable and speed when it rains are even slower.

                                  It’s not only that speeds are very slow in Australia but you also pay 5x or 10x vs prices in Sweden, Estonia or Romania as an example. It takes 6 to 10 times longer to execute tasks compared to a business in Romania, Estonia or Sweden with the extra costs. Ask yourself, why would you start a business with these impediments?

                                  As a comparison, look at how slow trains are in Australia and compare with any other country in regards to speed e.g. Japan, China, France, UK. It might not matter to you that it takes a whole day to make a trip in Australia vs other countries where the same trip takes 2 hours.

                                  Commenter
                                  Viking
                                  Location
                                  Sydney
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 9:50AM
                                • I could use at least double what I am getting. my town was supposed to get the nbn over 2 years ago. it wont be rolled out here anytime soon.
                                  on a good day we might get 600K.
                                  weekends when all the kiddies get on line it can drop to 200K.
                                  waaayyyyy back when I was working for alcatel developing broad band I had a twin isdn line of 128K - 15 years ago. stralya is a redneck backward country. as the crow flies 200 kms directly north of the biggest city in stralya doesnt have town water or sewer. the entire region is just about to get a digital tv signal ( woo hoo) and there might be a semi reliable mobile phone reception in the next few years. maybe.... fast adsl - not this decade.
                                  I hear other countries have trains that can go faster than cars - the wonders of the modern world!

                                  Commenter
                                  smilingjack
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 9:52AM
                                • It's not only about "speed", it's also about people realising that down under we get ripped off on all fronts, that's frustrating to many people. We really have become an expensive mediocrity.

                                  Commenter
                                  Anti-mediocrity
                                  Location
                                  Sydney
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 9:55AM
                                • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"

                                  Commenter
                                  Dion
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:01AM
                                • @JohnBB There are many many people in highly populated suburbs and towns that cannot access any broadband at all or where they can it is severely limited in speed. I live in a suburb of Brisbane but happen to be 2.5km from the local Telstra exchange and can only get about 4Mb over ADSL. There is no NBN or Pay TV cable in my area. I'm just one of 100's of thousands that need the NBN to provide an acceptable minimum service. I would be delighted with a 25Mb service but would most likely buy a 100Mb service If I had a choice. The point that many people miss about the NBN is that its not about increasing speed for those that are already well serviced and have choices of technology, but enabling basic broadband to the multitudes that currently cannot get it.

                                  Commenter
                                  Wayfarer
                                  Location
                                  Brisbane
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:02AM
                                • hey viking. I lived in stockholm and can vouch for that. cheap fast internet. ultra cheap mobile plans. ultra cheap air fares and a cracking public transport system.
                                  buying or renting for non swedes is a dodgy though. still its a cracking city.

                                  Commenter
                                  smilingjack
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:02AM
                                • @mitch...When more than 1 power point is needed put more in. ..."could very well re-locate to places where they had access to faster internet and take their jobs with them"...Could actually exacerbate it.

                                  @Viking...Fast trains serve a purpose, a faster internet presently doesn't. It's a waste of money....Yes we pay far too much but that wasn't the discussion.

                                  @Anti-mediocrity...."We really have become an expensive mediocrity"...we sure have...mainly by buying stuff we don't need and selling stuff we do need. We're doomed.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:11AM
                                • Good thing we've got a progressive and visionary government to tackle internet speeds, science, climate etc. Ha Ha Ha !

                                  Commenter
                                  Captain progress
                                  Location
                                  Illawarra
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:15AM
                                • Hi Smiling Jack, agree with that Stockholm is a thriving city utilising technology fully to its advantage. It has now because of being technology savvy become a mecca for start ups and not only technology ones either. Stockholm is a bit like Sydney expensive to buy property and hard to find good places to rent as well.

                                  Commenter
                                  Viking
                                  Location
                                  Sydney
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:23AM
                                • @Johnbb instead of putting more in as demand rises why not do it right the first time.
                                  @captain I understand that the last model Holden to be produced before the Holden production closes, will have tail fins and white-wall tyres, in keeping with the times.

                                  Commenter
                                  mitch of ACT
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 10:50AM
                                • You should be on one of the government committees as you clearly no nothing about the issues - I run a small business that is highly dependent on the speed and reliability of the internet - I receive and transfer large data files. I have potential growth with overseas clients that I will will lose to overseas competitors because this government has no idea. This government works for the big end of town and small businesses like mine suffer.

                                  Commenter
                                  Stephen
                                  Location
                                  Sydney
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 1:46PM
                                • I live 5 minutes drive from the main street of a major regional NSW city. My ADSL2+ speeds range from 0.5 - 1.2 Mb.

                                  I attempted to Skype a European friend this morning and the quality was so bad we gave up.

                                  Any plan for the future of telecommunications in this country that does not involve wholesale replacement of the copper network is a waste of time.

                                  Commenter
                                  Jimmy
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 1:54PM
                                • @Stephen..."This government works for the big end of town"....

                                  While I agree with that. You should move your business to where it functions properly...Your problem shouldn't be costing Australia $50b. I'm really puzzled by this...

                                  What kind of files are they and just how big are these files? .....There's something about your post I don't quite believe.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 2:00PM
                                • @Jimmy...Skype hey?..Is that for business? $50b toy is very expensive.

                                  Commenter
                                  JohnBB
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 2:13PM
                                • Just the number of comments should tell you JohnBB that maybe your perspective isn't really 'common' sense. People got blinded by the speed of fibre. Yes it can do 100Mbps. Yes it can do 1000Mbps. Its quite likely to be able to do 10,0000 Mbps in a decades time. Do we need that all now? Of course not. Will we need it in 50 years (seems more than likely). Instead we've got a network that MIGHT reach 25-50 Mbps that will cost only 25% less than the FTTP NBN (Malcolm's own cost benefit analysis) and use the decaying copper network. If I have to spend our tax dollars I know what white elephant I don't want to be buying.

                                  Commenter
                                  Peter
                                  Location
                                  Oz
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 2:20PM
                                • No, it's not for business. But I live in a shared house about 30 years old and the copper link to the exchange is already so degraded that it is useless for an extremely common internet task.

                                  Have you read anything at all about the state of the copper network?

                                  Alan Kohler writing for the SMH in 2003:

                                  " A month ago, before a Senate committee inquiry into broadband competition, Telstra's Bill Scales and Tony Warren rather let the cat out of the bag.

                                  Warren, group manager, regulatory strategy, told the committee: "I think it is right to suggest that ADSL is an interim technology. It is probably the last sweating, if you like, of the old copper network assets. In copper years, if you like, we are at a sort of transition - we are at five minutes to midnight."

                                  A few minutes later his boss, Bill Scales, attempted to bury this bit of candour: "The only point of clarification, just so that there is no misunderstanding, is that when we think about the copper network, we are still thinking about 10 years out. So five minutes to midnight in this context . . ."

                                  Dr Warren (chiming in): "Doesn't mean five years."

                                  Mr Scales: "It does not. It could be 10 or even 15 years, just to get some context into that."

                                  Phew. That was close. Telstra's copper will be sweated for a few years yet, thanks very much.

                                  Trouble is, in world terms, Telstra is flogging a sick horse, if not quite a dead one, and the world is rapidly moving towards FTTH - including in Australia. TransACT has laid fibre to the home in Canberra; Western Power subsidiary Bright Telecommunications is doing it in Perth. "

                                  11 Years ago they were flogging a sick horse.

                                  Commenter
                                  Jimmy
                                  Date and time
                                  September 02, 2014, 2:34PM
                              Comments are now closed