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Markets Live: End of quarter rally

Date

Jens Meyer, Patrick Commins

Shares rise in a broad-based end-of-quarter rally, as speculation builds on whether Chinese policymakers will act to prop up the slowing economy.

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That’s it for Markets Live today.

You can read a wrap-up of the action on the markets here.

Thanks for reading and your comments.

See you all again tomorrow morning from 9.

Despite the best February earnings season in five years the Australian equity market has finished March flat having only just edged ahead over the quarter.

Fund managers remain cautious about the outlook.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index added 27.9 points, or 0.5 per cent, on Monday to 5394.8, while the broader All Ordinaries Index gained 0.5 per cent to 5403, as Reserve Bank of Australia data showed private sector credit grew 0.4 per cent in February.

In March the ASX 200 edged up 0.1 per cent, while the All Ords eked out less than a 0.1 per cent gain led by the big four banks. Commonwealth Bank of Australia added 4 per cent to $77.44 in March, while Westpac Banking Corporation rose 3.9 per cent to $34.56. ANZ Banking Group gained 3.7 per cent to $33.06, and National Australia Bank added 2.7 per cent to $35.46.

Westpac Banking Corp and ANZ Banking Group have been the biggest drivers of the market this calendar year-to-date. After starting the year down 3.3 per cent in January the top 200 stocks have finished the March quarter up 0.5 per cent.

"Unfortunately the headlines that have held back the market's growth in the first quarter are likely to continue into the second quarter," Zurich Financial Services senior investment strategist Patrick Noble said.

"There has been no resolution to the geo-political tensions in Russia. It is yet to be seen if a spate of weak economic data in the US really was due to extreme weather and will improve. And a series of data releases in China over the past month indicate its target of 7.5 per cent annual growth will not be achievable," Mr Noble said.

Read more.

There have been some massive share price moves so far this year, as we look back at the winners and losers over the past three months.

Not as many of the usual speccy miners in there (many have been booted from the ASX200), and we can proudly say Fairfax is in the top three.

G8 Education takes top spot - 60 per cent gains! - while the turkey feather crown goes to The Reject Shop, which has cratered 41 per cent.

Best and worst performers over the March quarter.

Best and worst performers over the March quarter.

Here are the best and worst performing names in the ASX 200 today.

While The Reject Shop looks pretty good today, it has to be put into the context of their year to date performance... (see next post).

Worst for the day is iiNet, as it loses some of the hot air that was blown into the stock on speculation TPG would look to acquire it.

 

Best and worst performers in the ASX 200 today.

Best and worst performers in the ASX 200 today.

Russia on the brink of war with Ukraine, US Federal Reserve tapering and bad debts in China are just a few things investors have battled in the first quarter of 2014.

Equity markets around the developed world have failed to gather any real momentum, with both the ASX and Wall Street indices trading at around the same levels they were at the beginning of the year.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 is up just 0.8 per cent, while in the US, the S&P 500 has added 0.5 per cent and theNasdaq is down 0.5 per cent.

After a bumper year in 2013 which saw the local index jump 15 per cent and US markets jump more than 20 per cent, investors are taking a step back and reassessing the landscape.

The problem for equities is that corporate earnings have failed to grow at the same rate the stock price surged.

"If you're to pay these elevated multiples for stocks and you know that profit margins are relatively wide globally, you really are backing economic, or sales, growth for these companies to be very strong of the next few years," Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey said.

The problem is, while the numbers are not terrible, they are not that strong, Mr Boey said.

Read more.

A bit of a dive at the close wasn't enough to take the shine of a good start to the week - and end for the quarter - for the local sharemarket.

The ASX 200 index closed at 5394.8, but traded about 5400 for the most of the day, to record gains of 28 points, or 0.5 per cent, with the All Ords up a similar amount top 5403.

Gold miners had the best of it in the end, up 1.9 per cent as a group, while the broader metals and mining sector gained 0.8 per cent. BHP added 0.9 per cent and Rio 0.5 per cent, while Fortescue fell 1.7 per cent.

Health care was one of two sectors two decline, after CSL lost 0.4 per cent, while a 0.5 per cent decline in Wesfarmers weighed on consumer staples.

ANZ was the best of the banks, adding 0.7 per cent, while its three peers in the Big Four gained 0.4 per cent each.

Frank Lowy's Westfield Group faces an uphill battle to get its proposed demerger off the ground, as investors in the related Westfield Retail Trust look for a sweetener before they cast their votes.

It is widely anticipated the deal will be re-jigged in coming weeks, despite Westfield saying in February that it would proceed in its original form.

In a survey by broking group, CLSA, it shows that more than half of surveyed WRT investors will vote the scheme down in its current form.

The respondents say they want to see a lower price for the management [that is being paid to Westfield Group] of the WRT business; the Lowy family to maintain some ownership and reduced gearing in Scentre.

Last week Westfield formalised $22 billion in funding facilities, which are required for the proposal to restructure the business. The Independent Expert's report, on the planned de-merger, is (subject to court approval) expected to be dispatched late next month.

The disgruntlement, mainly from the WRT shareholders, has been brewing since last December, when the Westfield non executive chairman Frank Lowy, and his sons and co-chief executives, Steven and Peter Lowy, announced they would split the global retail property empire in two.

Under the plan, a newly-formed Westfield Corp would focus on the international business in the northern hemisphere and a new group, Scentre - which would replace WRT - would own and manage the Australian and New Zealand shopping centres.

Read more.

Turkey's lira has firmed to its strongest level in five weeks, after Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan declared victory in local polls that had become a referendum on his rule, stirring hopes months of political turbulence would ease.

The US dollar is trading at 2.1727, sharply down from a level of 2.1921 late on Friday, with the lira touching its strongest level since February 24.

Erdogan's authoritarian response to corruption scandals, reassigning thousands of police offices, giving the government more control of the courts, and banning Twitter and YouTube had unnerved investors and raised questions about Turkey's political future.

"The election result appears to be more or less what the doctor ordered: a solid win for the AKP which shores up the position of Turkey's ruling party," said Nicholas Spiro, head of Spiro Sovereign Strategy."

"Sentiment towards Turkish assets was already improving before the election and is likely to improve further. Yet any sense of relief ... needs to be tempered by the realisation that the election has thrown the bitter political divisions in Turkish society into even sharper relief."

The lira has gained around 9 per cent since touching a record low of 2.39 on January 27, triggering the central bank to raise interest rates massively the next day. It gained in the days prior to the local election on expectations of a strong showing by Erdogan's AK Party.

 

Turkey's lira has recovered from its lows at the peak of the EM worries earlier this year.

Turkey's lira has recovered from its lows at the peak of the EM worries earlier this year.

China’s biggest banks more than doubled the level of bad loans they wrote off last year, in a sign that financial strains are mounting as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows.

The five biggest Chinese banks, which account for more than half of all loans in the country, removed Rmb59bn ($10.3bn) from their books in debts that could not be collected, according to their 2013 results. That was up 127 per cent from 2012, and the highest since the banks were rescued from insolvency, recapitalised and publicly listed over the past decade.

The sharp acceleration in write-offs is the latest indication of the turbulence now buffeting China’s financial system. The bond market suffered its first true default in March, two high-profile shadow bank investment products were spared from collapse by last-minute bailouts earlier this year, and a small rural lender suffered a brief bank run last week.

Data also point to a deeper economic downturn in the first quarter than expected, putting China on track this year for its slowest growth since 1990.

The deterioration has fuelled expectations that Beijing will act soon to shore up the economy.

Read more at FT.com.

With pressures mounting on hard coking coal prices in north Asia, steaming coal is following suit, with Glencore Xstrata reportedly agreeing to a 14 per cent price cut in the key Japan market.

News reports from Tokyo put the contract price agreed beween Xstrata and Tohoku Electric Power Co at $US81.80 per tonne, for delivery from April, which is down from $US95 a tonne a year earlier.

Even so, the price decline is only around 6 per cent from the market price seen during the latter part of 2013, and up around 10 per cent from recent spot prices.

The settlement comes as coal producers have been cutting costs, including widespread retrenchments as they prepare for continued weak prices.

In coking coal, recent settlements have been reported for hard coking coal at around $US120 a tonne in north Asia, which is down from $US168 a tonne a year ago.

The declines in both steaming coal, which is primarily used for power generation, and coking coal, which is used in steel making, comes amid an oversupply, with a number of coal miners forced to continue selling into the market due to take-or-pay transport agreements with shippers.

Electricity distributor SP AusNet will pay $50 million to enable the early termination of a deal for the external management of its assets, following similar infrastructure companies that have moved to bring that role in-house.

The agreement to end the management services agreement was flagged by SP AusNet at its half-year results in November, when the Melbourne-based company said it was reviewing the deal.

SP AusNet said it had agreed to terminate the services agreement with SPI Management Services, a fully owned subsidiary of its major shareholder Singapore Power. The two have also agreed to unwind shared IT services provided by SP AusNet to SPIMS under an agreement that dates from September 2008.

The $50 million fee represents an early termination fee representing the present value of the payment that would have been made if the management services agreement had terminated on September 30, 2015, plus the present value of estimated performance fees that would have been payable until that date.

The restructuring of SP AusNet’s IT services as a result of the unwound IT agreement, should not exceed $7.5 million, it said.

Singapore Power recently sold a 19.9 per cent stake in SP AusNet to State Grid Corporation of China.

SP AusNet shares are back trading and are up 1.9 per cent to $1.33.

Shares in Recall have jumped on resuming trade, after the document storage business announced a 10-year information management deal with HSBC that is estimated to be worth about 2 per cent of the company's current revenue.

Recall will be responsible for securing and managing an additional 4.5 million carton equivalents of documents and files, the company said.

Shares are up 6.5 per cent at $4.815, after earlier being down by as much as 1.3 per cent.

BofAML economist Saul Eslake remains one of the shrinking number of economists convinced we won't see a rate rise this year, and that further easing is much more likely.

"It remains our view that the RBA will potentially need to ease rates further in the second half of the year. At the very least we expect that it will remain on hold for an extended period and likely well into 2015," Eslake writes in a note out today.

"This is based on the still many challenges the economy must face over 2014 and the years following. Despite recent encouraging data flow in some sectors we think it is premature to forecast rate rises this year as some are now doing."

Eslake goes on to list the reasons why he reckons a further rate cut is possible:

  • Below-trend growth: Growth will remain below trend in 2014 in our view. Further, like 2013, it will be characterised by weak domestic  demand and an above average contribution from net exports. 
  • The mining investment decline hasn’t started: The primary reason we think forecasting hikes in 2014 is premature is because we have seen almost nothing of the decline in mining investment.
  • Terms of trade are declining more rapidly: The recent decline in the iron price will weigh heavily on the terms of trade in the first quarter at least. And if no rebound occurs this will start to impact economic growth as gross domestic income growth slows sharply.
  • The non-mining recovery isn’t convincing: Investment intentions for non-mining sectors have not shown any convincing signs of recovery in 2014-15. The business sector is looking for better conditions before ramping up investment and employment.
  • Unemployment rate rising: We anticipate that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in 2014 and likely beyond. It is our view that recent solid employment growth figures should be looked through due to statistical factors.
  • Inflation will come off: We remain confident that the acceleration of the inflation rate in recent quarters will be transitory. This is based on a stable outlook for the A$ and softer wages growth persisting. 
  • Fiscal drag on growth: May’s budget will be at least modestly contractionary in the short term. And in particular it will weigh on house income growth.
  • Dollar remains high: It is our forecast that the A$ will remain elevated throughout 2014 finishing at $US0.880. But so far this year the A$ seems well supported above $US0.900 despite a relatively more hawkish Fed outlook and lower commodity prices.


Rate cut scenario: Saul Eslake doesn't expect the RBA to lift rates anytime soon.

Rate cut scenario: Saul Eslake doesn't expect the RBA to lift rates anytime soon.

Christopher Joye’s warning that house prices near record levels could be in for a major correction of up to 20 per cent is causing the predictable stir. Hundreds of comments have been added to the article, which is by far today’s top rating yarn.

In what’s shaping up as a bit of a fashion around housing market forecasts - think Rory Robertson sending Steven Keen on a hike up Mt Kosciuszko - it’s also prompted economist Stephen ‘The Kouk’ Koukoulas to offer Joye a cash bet with odd of 10-1: if prices fall 20 per cent or more over the next three years,  Koukoulas will pay Joye $10,000, and if they don’t he will get just $1000.

In a second part to the bet, Koukoulas will pay $1000 if house prices rise 10 per cent or more over the next three years, and will receive $1000 if they fail to rise by that much.

Following their correspondence on Twitter, it’s not looking like Joye has accepted the bet.

Argentina has been approached by financial institutions offering it loans at favourable rates, marking a tentative reopening of international credit markets for the first time in over a decade.

The economy ministry issued a statement on Sunday, saying it had received offers of credit from abroad. It did not name the institutions.

"In recent weeks ... various financial institutions have presented proposals of access to external financing with repayment timetables and interest rates similar to those offered to other countries in the region," it said.

It would be the first time Argentina has received loans from international creditors since a massive default in 2002.

The offers followed Argentina's $US5 billion settlement with Spain's Repsol over its expropriation of YPF and progress on talks to repay over the $9.5 billion the country  owes the Paris Club creditor nations, said the ministry.

BusinessDay columnist Michael West highlights just one case of what would be many that highlight how commissions distorts financial advice:

Raymond Tatnell's financial adviser told him the investment was ''a no-brainer''. He was right.

Tatnell lost money and has now brought a case before the NSW Supreme Court against his advisers from Westpac and Macquarie Bank, which made the product.

There is rich irony in the ''no-brainer'' recommendation because MQ Gateway, which Macquarie marketed to Westpac and which Westpac in turn sold to its clients, took considerable brains to concoct - perhaps too many brains.

MQ is one of those ludicrously complicated products that entails taking out a large loan to buy units in a derivative and then another loan to meet the interest payments on the first loan.

Tatnell's case goes to the heart of the debate over the Future of Financial Advice reforms that the government sought to wind back until the Sinodinos affair put the amendments on hold last week.

Macquarie's MQ is the embodiment of an overly complex and leveraged investment with excessive fees and low transparency. Boiling it down, Tatnell is claiming his Westpac advisers didn't understand what they were selling but simply trotted out the Macquarie line that it was ''a no-brainer'' and ''couldn't help but make money''.

Another irony in the ''no-brainer'' claims is that MQ was also marketed as ''capital protected'' and tax-effective. In short, it purported to have the lot.

Where MQ really did have the lot was on the fee front. The commissions are not stipulated in the Tatnell pleadings. However, a former Macquarie banker with knowledge of the product estimated that, in selling Tatnell a $12.5 million ''Structured Product Investment Loan facility'' and a ''Capitalised Interest Assistance Loan'', the Westpac salesmen stood to make $543,000 in upfront fees and trailing commissions from Macquarie.

Read more.

Global markets expert Marc Faber has warned of an impending correction in United States stocks, urging investors to crystallise their gains and move into emerging markets before a savage retracement materialises.

The contrarian commentator, known widely as “Doctor Doom”, told attendees at a Melbourne conference this morning that the recovery in US stocks was ageing and that it was time for investors to get out.

“We are approaching the fifth anniversary of the economic recovery,” he said. “Usually after five years in a bull market in the US, the typical decline is more than 20 per cent.”

The Swiss-born author of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report is best known for correctly anticipating the 1987 crash and the 2009 rebound. He has amassed a huge following, due to his idiosyncratic style and occasionally left-field pronouncements.

Fans were not left disappointed by his presentation, which contained some classic “Faberisms”, including his claim that the tech bubble of 2000 was deliberately created by former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and the 1994 Mexican bailout was actually a bailout of Goldman Sachs.

The bulk of his speech, however, was devoted to the rise and rise of emerging markets and the opportunities for investors.

Read more at Smart Investor.

Central banks are in 'deep shit', Marc Faber says.

Central banks are in 'deep shit', Marc Faber says.

An industrial dispute involving tugboat workers at Port Hedland is threatening to halt shipping of iron ore through the port, and disrupt Australia's most lucrative export chain.

The deckhands are seeking improved pay and increased leave entitlements, in a bid to bring their conditions into line with the better paid engineers and masters that also man the tugboats.

The exact demands are unclear, as different claims have emerged from both sides, and a hearing today will see the talks go behind closed doors at the Fair Work Commission in front of Vice President Graeme Watson.

But it's clear the tugboat workers already earn six-figure salaries, and work on a roster that sees them work four weeks on, then four weeks off.

When exports through the port are halted, the entire Pilbara supply chain soon follows suit, because only so much ore can be piled up in the stockyards at Port Hedland.'

Read more

Bonds yields are still remarkably low, Jonathan Shapiro observes over at the AFR. Despite the Fed's taper and signalling rates rises next year, the 10-year US Treasury is yielding just 2.72 per cent, while the Aussie 10-year is hovering at 4.10 per cent.

It begs the question: why are bond yields still so low? There’s no obvious answer but there are several contributing factors, according to Damian Mcoulough of head of interest rates strategy at Westpac:

  • One is that the market is still undecided about the fate of the US economy and how much of a factor bad weather played in the recent spate of weak data. Until there is greater clarity investors are reluctant to sell bonds.
  • Also shorting bonds is not that cheap. Even when they yield 2.72 per cent the cost of funding a short position in bonds means investors need to get the timing right.
  • Mcoulough adds that geopolitical factors – while the overriding factor– cannot be discounted. Even as equity markets edge higher there is still a safe-haven bid for bonds.
  • Another factor is that the so-called carry trade is alive and well. Investors are still searching higher yields either in long term bonds or in higher yielding markets such as Australia.
  • The rising Australian dollar is making the carry traders more confident that it will be harder for the RBA raise interest rates too much and catch them out.
Remarkably low: yields on both 10-year US Treasuries (white line) and Australian 10-year government bonds have not risen as much as expected.

Remarkably low: yields on both 10-year US Treasuries (white line) and Australian 10-year government bonds have not risen as much as expected.

Three of the world's largest banks have warned that the flood of "hot money" into China is at risk of sudden reversal as the yuan weakens and the US Federal Reserve brings forward plans to raise interest rates, with major implications for global finance.

A new report by Citigroup told clients to brace for a second phase of the "taper tantrum" that rocked emerging markets last year, but this time with China at the eye of the storm.

"There's a dangerous scenario in which the combination of rising US short-term rates and a more volatile RMB (yuan) could lead to a rather large capital outflow from China," said the report, by Guillermo Mondino and David Lubin.

They argue that China's credit boom has become a "function" of external dollar funding, mostly through offshore lending in Hong Kong and Singapore to circumvent internal curbs. It is a powerful side-effect of super-loose policies by the Fed, which the Chinese have been unable to control. If so, this may snap back abruptly as dollar liquidity dries up and fickle money returns to the US.

Bank lending to emerging markets has surged by $US1.2 trillion over the last five years to $US3.5 trillion. The banks have funded most of these loans from short-term sources, leaving the whole nexus extremely vulnerable as the US prepares to tighten.

Read more.

<p>

The US stock market is a rigged game where high-frequency traders with advanced computers make tens of billions of dollars by jumping in front of investors, according to best-selling author Michael Lewis, who spent the past year researching the topic for his highly anticipated new book “Flash Boys”.

While speed traders’ strategies, developed over the past decade with help from exchanges, are legal, “it’s just nuts” that they’re allowed, Lewis said during an interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes". The tactics are too complicated for individual investors to understand, he said.

"They're able to identify your desire to buy shares in Microsoft and buy them in front of you and sell them back to you at a higher price," says Lewis. "The speed advantage that the faster traders have is milliseconds...fractions of milliseconds."

“The US stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism, is rigged,” Lewis, whose books “Liar’s Poker” and “The Big Short” highlighted Wall Street excesses, said during the interview. “It’s crazy that it’s legal for some people to get advance news on prices and what investors are doing,” he said.

Everyone who owns equities is victimised by the practices, in which the fastest traders figure out which stocks investors plan to buy, purchase them first and then sell them back at a higher price, said Lewis.

Investors in exchange-traded funds that buy US government debt are signalling their conviction the Federal Reserve is intent on raising interest rates sooner rather than later.

After pouring into the ETFs to start the year, investors pulled $US10.3 billion in March, the biggest exodus since December 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The $7.86 billion iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF alone lost a third of its assets from withdrawals, the most of any fixed-income fund this month.

The retreat shows how quickly ETF investors recalibrated expectations as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said March 19 that a strengthening US economy may prompt the central bank to lift its benchmark rate six months after it stops buying bonds.

While treasuries have confounded forecasters by outperforming this year, ETF investors are shifting money into riskier assets such as junk loans and small-cap stocks to capture greater returns.

“When the market thinks the Fed is going to raise rates, they don’t tend to stick around in short-dated bonds,” Thomas Higgins, global macro strategist at Standish Mellon Asset Management, which oversees $167 billion of fixed-income assets, said from Boston. “With the Fed signalling rate hikes and the economy slowly but steadily humming along there is less and less value in treasuries.”

Higgins said his firm favours speculative-grade corporate bonds and has been selling Treasuries.

The redemptions in March have all but erased the net inflows US government bond ETFs garnered in the first two months of the year, when an economic slowdown in China, crises from Thailand to Ukraine and questions over the strength of the US economy caused investors to seek out the safest assets.

Traders anticipate a 64 per cent chance the Fed will start increasing its benchmark rate, which has been close to zero for six years, in June 2015, based on futures trading on the CME Group Inc.’s exchange. Prior to Yellen’s comments, the likelihood was 42 per cent.

Read more at Bloomberg.

Just on the RBA financial aggregates again, we've charted the trend in annual growth for housing and business lending since 1991.

Starting with housing, the average annual growth in housing between January 1991 and July 2007 was 15 per cent (investor housing loans averaged closer to 25 per cent).

Since then housing lending has grown at an annual rate of 7 per cent, and substantially lower than that in recent years - as you can see from the chart.

Business lending growth fell off a cliff in 2008 before bouncing off very low levels in late 2009/early 2010. But the rebound hit a road block in 2012, business lending growth slowed down, and now looks to have picked back up, if slowly.

The trend in 12-month growth in housing and business lending.

The trend in 12-month growth in housing and business lending.

RBA has released financial aggregates data this morning, which slow a bit of an uptick in business lending for the month and a bit of a fall in housing loans - see table below.

On a 12-month basis, it's clear that housing credit has picked up over the past year, while business lending is equivalent to this time in 2013..

Housing and personal lending is growing faster than it was a year ago.

Housing and personal lending is growing faster than it was a year ago.

The by far best-rating business story this morning is Christopher Joye's housing bubble warning, which we flagged on Friday. In case you missed it, here's an updated version.

Some of the highlights:

  • Australia is just months away from having the most expensive residential property market in history.
  • According to a valuation benchmark regularly cited by the RBA – Australian house prices divided by family incomes – the asset class is three months from piercing the valuation peaks touched in June 2006 and June 2010.
  • There's no evidence the boom is abating. In 2014, national auction clearance rates have consistently punched above 70 per cent – echoing the 2009 ebullience induced by low rates and the government's first time buyers' bonus.
  • When prices do start sliding, it is not inconceivable that we could see unprecedented 10 to 20 per cent losses across the board.
  • This has ramifications for home owners and investors in the banks, which are, on average, leveraged 25 times and only need a circa 5 per cent fall in the value of the assets held on their balance sheets – 60 per cent of which are home loans – to have their equity capital wiped out.
  • My message is: buyers beware.
<p>

Only a matter of weeks after quitting as the chairman of Nexus Energy, Seven Group chief executive Don Voelte has outlined plans to seek control of the troubled explorer.

Seven said it intends offering shareholders 2 cents a share, which is significantly less than their last traded price of 5.9 cents a share.

When he quit the Nexus board in mid-February, Voelte, a former chief executive of Woodside Petroleum, said his position was "no longer appropriate" given Seven Group's "strategic focus on opportunities in the oil and gas sector".

Trading in shares in Nexus has been suspended since late February due to operational problems at the Longtom unit, which has clouded the financial fortunes of the explorer.

As part of the conditional offer, Seven will offer Nexus an immediate $40 million as well as commit to a $400 million spending program which will help put the troubled company's operations onto a firmer financial footing.

Sales of new homes jumped in February on strong demand for detached houses, the latest sign that low interest rates are fuelling a revival in the market.

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) said its survey of large builders showed sales of new homes rose 4.6 per cent in February from January, to their highest in almost three years. Sales of new detached houses surged 6.9 per cent in February, while the volatile multi-unit sector dropped 6.8 per cent.

"Both sales and building approvals for detached housing are signalling faster momentum ahead for this component of new dwelling construction, compared to what was evident in the first phase of the recovery," said HIA chief economist Harley Dale.

"This signal suggests more balanced growth ahead in the composition of new home building and adds a further positive dimension to the recovery for many of Australia's manufacturers and suppliers."

The Reserve Bank has been counting on a revival in home construction to help support the economy as a long boom in mining investment finally peaks.

Momentum seen for construction.

Momentum seen for construction. Photo: Tamara Voninski

SMH economics editor Ross Gittins says the Murray inquiry into the financial system should be asking whether Australia would be better off with a smaller finance industry:

Attention conspiracy theorists: see if you can detect a pattern in this. Tony Abbott wants to review the renewable energy target, so he appoints self-professed climate change ''sceptic'' Dick Warburton, who feels qualified to explain to the scientists where they're going wrong.

Abbott wants to review the financial system, so he appoints a former boss of a big four bank, David Murray, who feels qualified to explain to economists where they're going wrong.

So, which industry sector stands the better chance of getting what it wants from its review?

Can you imagine how many proposals Murray's committee will receive aimed at making the financial system bigger and better - and all in return for just a little more help from taxpayers?

I read that the Australian Bankers Association's submission proposes abolition of interest withholding tax, so as to support offshore fund-raising by local banks and to encourage overseas banks to lend more in Australia. It also calls for the removal of ''tax disincentives'' on bank deposits. All to increase this financial sector's contribution to economic growth and jobs, naturally.

The government's terms of reference say ''the inquiry is charged with examining how the financial system could be positioned to best meet Australia's evolving needs and support Australia's economic growth''. Fine. But if it's to be more than just an industry sales pitch, the inquiry needs rigorously to examine the industry's convenient assumption that the bigger it gets the more it benefits the rest of us.

In a brief submission that deserves more attention than it's likely to get, Professor Ron Bird and Dr Jack Gray, of the Paul Woolley centre at the University of Technology, Sydney, summarise the growing evidence that the developed economies' much expanded financial systems have been a bad investment from the perspective of the wider economy.

Read more.

Climate change is already being felt in all corners of the globe and some parts of the natural world may already be undergoing irreversible change, a major assessment by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found.

The report on the impact of climate change – the first of its kind in seven years – stresses that the likelihood climate change will cause severe and irreversible damage to the planet grows if greenhouse gas emissions continue is high and the planet warms significantly.

The report is the result of years of work by a team of 309 lead global researchers. It is the second part of the IPCC's fifth assessment of climate change and focuses on its impact and how the world might adapt.

A 48-page summary released today says some threats from climate change are considerable at just one or two degrees warming above pre-industrial levels. The average temperature across the globe has risen 0.85 since 1880.

If you're interested, we're live-blogging the release of the report and reactions.

Toy wholesaler Funtastic, which counts Lachlan Murdoch and Gerry Harvey as shareholders and hasn’t paid a dividend for six years, has once again withheld its interim distribution after reporting a bottom line loss of $25.88 million for the January half.

The wholesaler, which sells CHILLFACTOR slushy makers, Leapfrog toys and Power Rangers action figures, wrote down the value of its Madman Entertainment film distribution unit by $24.16 million after receiving offers for the business that were well below book value of $52 million.

Earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation from continuing operations also plunged 83 per cent to $1.69 million after a drop in sales of key agency brands such as Ben 10 and Power Rangers, while costs rose, fuelled in part by the weaker Australian dollar and international expansion activities.

The bottom line loss, which was flagged early in March, compared with a net profit of $9.3 million in the prior corresponding period.

Shares are still up 3.8 per cent at 13.5 cents this morning.

Read more.

Network Ten has recorded its worst weekly audience share for prime time on record.

The free-to-air television network had a 13.8 per cent share of total audience from 6pm to midnight last week, placing it fourth behind the ABC, which had a 17.9 per cent share.

Seven Network won the week with a 33 per cent audience share, while Nine Network was second with a 31 per cent share.

After enjoying ratings success with the Big Bash League cricket competition, the Sochi Winter Olympics and the Australian Grand Prix, Ten has struggled to launch its general entertainment programming.

The network is trying to attract new programming executives and is locked in a court battle with Seven over the services of John Stephens who walked away from a signed contract with Ten.

Ten shares are flat at 27 cents.

Consumers prices have edged slightly higher this month to keep inflation at 2.7 per cent, a private survey has found.

The monthly inflation gauge, by TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute, found that prices rose by 0.2 per cent in March to take the year-on-year rate to 2.7 per cent. The annual rate is near the top of the Reserve Bank's target band of 2 to 3 per cent.

The trimmed mean, a measure of underlying inflation and which is more closely watched by the central bank, lifted by 0.1 per cent this month to take the annual rate to 2.7 per cent, the report released today showed.

"Inflation pressures are clearly building up, neither due to 'noise' nor proof that Australia’s speed limit on growth is below 3 per cent," TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher says.

"While the RBA board has a few months to voice the 'period of stability in the cash rate' theme, the use-by date for the emergency cash rate is approaching fast."

Local shares have had a positive start to what's likely to be a bumpy week in which a range of key economic numbers are released here and abroad.

The ASX 200 is up 0.5 per cent, or 28 points, to 5395.1 in early trading, while the All Ords is 27 points higher at 5403.6.

Gains are being recorded across sectors, with metals and mining stocks leading the charge - up 1 per cent. Even gold miners have gained 0.6 per cent.

Most bluechips are up - as are three quarters of the top 200 - with BHP 1.2 per cent higher and the big banks, Telstra, Woolies and Wesfarmers all contributing the early upbeat mood.

CSL is the exception, down 0.1 per cent.

The AFR caught up with Saxo Bank's resident contrarian, chief economist Steen Jakobsen, who's always good for a controversial quote.

He's been fairly pessimistic about Australia, and in his most recent interview he again warns local investors about becoming too complacent about sharemarket gains.

"You like to call yourselves the lucky ones, I like to call you the isolated ones. I think Australia is very much in its own world in terms of the monetary cycle and you’re probably the only housing market in the world that’s going up right now. Certainly the only one where the government and central bank support the housing market.”

To him, Australia with its structural issues, reminds him of the Britain before Margaret Thatcher came to power in 1979.“I see the unions want pay rises, when productivity is very low,” he says. “It shows inflexibility to understand how the world has become global.”

Here are a few more quotes challenging the (Aussie dollar) bulls:

  • Don't be surprised if the Reserve Bank cuts the official cash rate to 1.75%.
  • There's more chance of [me] being selected to play football for Denmark than the official (RBA) cash rate rising.
  • The Australian dollar might have a run up to US95c or US96c in the short term but by the end of the year it will be closer to US80c.
  • Stand by for some clarifying comments from the governor of the RBA Glenn Stevens following his remarks last week on the Australian dollar.
  • The Dow Jones could fall as much as 30 per cent from its peak.
  • China will grow at 5 per cent not 7 per cent.
  • The US Federal Reserve will soon be forced to taper its own tapering program.

Read more ($)

 

Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen predicts the dollar will fall to $US80¢ and rates could be cut.

Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen predicts the dollar will fall to $US80¢ and rates could be cut.

In case you missed it, Fleetwood Corp on Friday night announced the resignation of its CEO, Steve Price, effective June 30.

Price has run the temporary accommodation and caravan business for four years and through "a particularly challenging period", the company said in a statement, during which time he "implemented a series of reforms and initiated processes which will stand the group in good stead in the years to come".

The shares were up 2 per cent on Friday to $2.60 on Friday, but were closer to $10 a year ago.

In other corporate news, where it's been pretty quiet this morning, insurance group Suncorp plans to raise $250 million through hybrid debt securities to help fund capital works.

The Brisbane-based company will issue convertible preference shares to raise the cash, which chief financial officer Steve Johnston was needed to fund ‘‘one or more regulated entities within the Suncorp Group’’.

‘‘The CPS3 offer will further strengthen Suncorp’s capital position and is a key part of our ongoing funding and capital management strategy,’’ Johnston said.

The CPS3, to be issued at $100, will be quoted on the ASX. Trading is expected to start from May 9.

UBS has been appointed the sole arranger and joint lead manager with Deutsche Bank and NAB.

Electricity distributor SP AusNet has halted its shares from trading amid discussions with major shareholder Singapore Power on a management-services agreement between the two.

A review of the management services agreement comes as a consequence of Singapore Power’s sale of a 19.9 per cent stake in SP AusNet to State Grid Corporation of China.

In November, SP AusNet said its directors intended to end the agreement on or before September 30, 2015 and that discussions with Singapore Power on that were under way.

The agreement started on October 1, 2005 for an initial period of 10 years but continues for two further ten-year periods unless terminated by either party giving at least one year’s notice before the expiry of the relevant 10-year period.

Melbourne-based SP AusNet said the trading halt would last until the market open on Wednesday, or when it made an announcement on the future of the agreement.

There are no shortages of major economic reports on the calendar this week but we also have central bank rate decisions and a major change in fiscal policy in Japan, writes BK Asset Management forex strategy director Kathy Lien in a note titled ‘Five reasons why currencies could explode this week’:

  • Japan set to raise the sales tax for first time in 17 years
  • ECB and RBA monetary policy decisions
  • US, German and Canadian employment reports
  • Chinese PMIs
  • ISM and PMI Reports from US, eurozone, Australia and Canada


There will be a lot of news for the market to absorb so directionality may be difficult to handicap but we know with confidence that all of these event risks will increase the volatility in currencies.

The Australian dollar is taking a breather after last week's impressive rally and as investors await the Reserve Bank's April board meeting tomorrow.

The local unit is fetching 92.47 US cents, down from 92.66 US cents late on Friday.

The local currency hit a four-month high of 92.95 US cents during the day on Friday following strong local economic figures and RBA governor Glenn Stevens' upbeat view of the economy during a speech in Hong Kong.

The currency has dropped off as investors take profit ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting, Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Raiko Shareef says:

  • The Australian dollar had a very strong week last week.
  • It was the top performing major currency and that was driven mostly by governor Stevens last week failing to take a swipe at the Aussie dollar despite its strength.
  • We think there was a bit of profit taking after an exceptional week and also just a bit of taking risk off the table ahead of the RBA meeting this week.
Strong rise since the last RBA meeting.

Strong rise since the last RBA meeting.

Australian shares look set to open slightly higher, following Wall Street's rise, but gains are likely to be limited ahead of Chinese PMI data, the RBA rates decision and US jobs numbers

What you need2know this morning:

  • SPI futures up 12 points to 5368
  • AUD at 92.47 US cents, 95.00 Japanese yen, 67.18 Euro cents and 55.49 British pence
  • On Wall St, S&P500 +0.5%, Dow Jones +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.1%
  • In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, FTSE100 +0.4%, CAC +0.7%, DAX +1.4%
  • Spot gold up 0.3% $US1295.27 an ounce
  • Brent oil rises 0.2% to $US108.07 per barrel
  • Iron ore is at $US112.30 per metric tonne

What's on today:

Australia: Private sector credit for February, March’s monthly inflation gauge, Business counts (June 2013).

Stocks to watch:

  • BC Iron chief executive Morgan Ball has told Smart Investor how the company has dodged the mining slowdown bullet.
  • Bell Potter director Charlie Aitken has outlined three “high conviction ideas”: sell ASX, buy both Crown Resorts and Brickworks.
  • Deutsche Bank is retaining its “hold” rating on Sigma Pharmaceuticals, for which it has a price target of 65 cents.
  • Trading ex dividend today: Money3Corp, SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Lister Property Fund, Virtus Health, Webster.

read more in this morning's need2know

Good morning and welcome to the Markets Live blog for Monday.

Your editors today are Jens Meyer and Patrick Commins.

This blog is not intended as investment advice.

BusinessDay with wires.

Quotes Search

Sort comments by:
  • @501pm chart
    blah running 3 greens and 5 reds,so dont listen to me [disclaimer]

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 5:08PM
  • This new Bull is much more Metro, Sensitive and preferring lattes...moving gently and communicating softly. What a weakling....
    In the old days of sane central bankers, I used to drive markets, drive profits and deep fear in my competitors; now this new one, prefers easy jazz....the only thing it drives is a...scooter.

    Commenter
    Taurus
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 4:33PM
  • Once again ASX having a good day but loses 45% of gains. Been going on for 5 years. And then there's tomorrow. Get ready to lose 27.9 points.

    Commenter
    Goldfinger
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 4:28PM
  • 10 point drop in the AllOrds in the closing auction. Unusual for an up day and perhaps not a good portent for tomorrow.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 4:13PM
  • ok so a 4.4 million share trade goes through on MNW,yet theres no roadblock of stock to clear out from the sellers side,so it already had a taker {at market]

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 3:54PM
  • The Marc Faber model of predicting a crash eventually will come true. A true soothsayer should be able to predict the month and year. Some bloggers on this site are using the same model.

    Commenter
    Wally
    Location
    Flynn
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 3:29PM
    • Remember Paul B Farrell says it will be just like 1929,but hes been pushing that cart forever and a day......nay nay.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:09PM
    • Actually he was an advocate for a sizeable correction in 2007..

      While I'm bullish re global growth, the US stockmarket has increased substantially in the last 5 years (well over 100%) so I actually agree that the US stockmarket (as opposed to the US economy) is due a correction of at least 10%.

      His call is more cautionary than doom IMO.

      Commenter
      Life Is Good
      Location
      The Real World
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:59PM
  • Then as far as computerised trading goes it's amusing when 2 bots take an interest in the same stock One bot sells a handful of shares, sometimes just one share, at say $2.02. A few seconds later another bot chips in and buys a handful of shares, sometimes just 1 share, at $2.025. That trading can continue every few seconds and may even attract another bot to the party. They can go on like this all day with only the very occasional trade by a real-live human being the only time when a meaningful number of shares changes hands.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 3:27PM
  • Anyone know of a Russian etf, managed fund or exposed share?

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 3:13PM
  • I actually expect a tapering correction this year, but can't respect anything Marc Faber has to say. Check his predictions since 2010. Imagine listening to his advice since then. Enough said.

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 3:05PM
  • and now here comes all the experts saying rates wont go up, where did all the experts go last week who said they will, honestly, you would think the markets are one big playground, where lies are told to enhance positions, surely not!!!

    Commenter
    Genghis
    Location
    Crown
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 3:01PM
  • The Perfect Economic Storm is coming, yes...I can see it....so beautiful, so dark, so cold, so angry, so unforgiving....

    Commenter
    Rider of the Economic Storm
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:47PM
    • yeah yeah, thats what she said.

      Commenter
      hes
      Location
      a dreamer
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:59PM
    • He is basing this mostly on rising interest rates. Also if enough people take notice of him presto big drop. Locally though, yield hunters are getting into the banks earlier than usual. Its been a while since I've seen more buyers than sellers of NAB. Don't rule out Obama driving the Dow down when it gets too high.

      Commenter
      Wally
      Location
      Flynn
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:00PM
    • thought this sought of nonsense wasn't getting a guernsey under the new guidelines

      Commenter
      kindergarten cop
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:03PM
    • So poetic!

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:07PM
    • Kindergarten cop, whilst I am an advocate of the new guidelines in terms of relevance, let's not get too carried away with how they are implemented. I quite enjoy this blog and the fact that it has almost become a community in itself, but I don't want to see it completely stifled of a bit of fun. I trust the Ed's judgement so far in making the call between what is a bit of fun and what is pure irrelevance.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:37PM
    • sorry @ Gareth, we will have to agree to disagree, but I am a highly intelligent individual who enjoys the more off the wall type humour, but if this stuff is for you, then I can understand that as well..

      Commenter
      kindergarten cop
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:15PM
    • @kindergarten cop..."I'm a highly intelligent individual..."....hehehe LOL, oh brother, there's always one around that escaped.

      Commenter
      Doctor
      Location
      Sydney Asylum
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:37PM
    • ...and it is a markets live blog, not an attempted comedy carnival

      Commenter
      kindergarten cop
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:50PM
  • Re 2.35pm post - wasn't this article out on Friday??

    The real expression should be "lies, damn lies, statistics AND GRAPHS"! The Clearly Overvalues graph starts in 1993 just after property had crashed due to the 'recession we had to have" and the Anglo graph starts just prior to the GFC after UK/US house prices had risen >100% in the prior 4 years.

    Quality unbiased research uses a long history to better represent what may happen. There may well be a property price drop but this article proves nothing!

    Commenter
    Life Is Good
    Location
    The Real World
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:43PM
  • BKN gotta be one of the most shorted stocks on ASX lately.....scraping their 2% a day out of it.....move on please and let the bounce begin.boooooo

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:43PM
    • Couldn't agree more. First it was ACR and now BKN, the institutional shorters are following my trades.

      Commenter
      Grinch
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:03PM
    • We are all part of the ALGORITHM! We buy the instos sell, we sell the instos buy.
      I don't know why we continue with such a twentieth century "free" market system. Shares could be valued each day and prices adjusted accordingly, as when a takeover is instigated.
      All of this pushing prices around damages economies and our super funds.

      Commenter
      It's All About Making Money
      Location
      Lennox Head
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:38PM
  • Doctor Doom's theory about 1994 Mexican bailout being a bailout of Goldman Sachs holds true for most government bailouts.

    During the Asian crisis of 1998 the Aisan countries were just bailed out by IMF, etc. until Western banks could cover their losses and get out. We're seeing the same thing in Europe where bankrupt countries are forced to take bailout money rather than default just so that EU politicians can use taxpayer money to bail out the banks.

    Politician-banker corruption is the proper name for it.

    Commenter
    Dr No
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:42PM
  • Has anybody bout there with an SMSF got their 12/13 tax assessment yet. I lodged tax returns for the 11 family SMSFs I look after in mid-Jan but nothing yet which is disappointing because there are big refunds from franking credits due. Perhaps the gov't has spent so much "stopping the boats" & buying the votes that it can't afford to pay tax refunds.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:39PM
    • Received franking divs last week from ATO.

      Commenter
      Wally
      Location
      Flynn
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:51PM
  • enjoy the end of month up peoples, will be down tomorrow

    Commenter
    JB
    Location
    Boronia
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:38PM
    • Trend if predictable is not a trend at all. so prepare for the opposite, don't short too much:)

      Commenter
      Up adn Down is Norm
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:57PM
  • TRS going great guns!

    Commenter
    Bulls
    Location
    on parade!
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:26PM
    • Yeah love it. Magic touch from The Motley Fool again.

      Commenter
      Irish Phil
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:43PM
  • I think Dr Doom should stick to selling pencils!

    EDs: Nice!

    Commenter
    Ox
    Location
    Kensi Pk
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:18PM
    • Dada joke.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:42PM
    • Correction....Dad joke...I love them and make them all the time.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:59PM
  • @204pm comment
    When it comes down to what things influence the market, and investors, this is waaay more relevant to the stocks than any
    political party donations they make and the disclosure of them.Stick to the facts.Well done again Fairfax lets show everyone that the brokers dont care about what advice they give because accountability is only to themselves and those above.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 2:13PM
    • @BSB considering the person who was involved in pushing the watered-down FOFA "reforms" into the Parliament on behalf of the banks, his previous life as a banker and his supposed role with AWH as a key Liberal able to talk with other Liberals, and AWH's donations to the Liberal party the nexus between donations, politics and the market couldn't be clearer.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:52PM
    • yea yea @Mitch but remember this was before any of that happened.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:31PM
  • whats the difference between Doctor Doom and JohnBB?

    Commenter
    general
    Location
    public
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:57PM
    • JohnBB's very handsome.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:27PM
    • (puts hand up) Doctor Doom is a fictional character and therefore his predictions of doom are also fictional. JohnBB is a real character whose predictions actually have some merit and his glasses aren't as rose-coloured as the rest of us. JohnBB delivers his prophecies with a little too much enthusiasm, which encourages people to laugh him off as a 'chicken little', but I actually listen to him.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:27PM
    • ....."delivers his prophecies with a little too much enthusiasm".........

      True that...Dramatic.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:53PM
    • yeah right, sorry bud didnt mean to hurt your feelings. was a light hearted joke, cause he does resemble doctor doom he he

      Commenter
      yeah
      Location
      right
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:02PM
    • 'JohnBB's very handsome'.

      Nice reply :o)

      Commenter
      heybert
      Location
      Sesame Street
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:56PM
  • Global markets expert Marc Faber has warned of an impending correction in United States stocks, urging investors to crystallise their gains and move into emerging markets before a savage retracement materialises.

    ...Mother faber please!

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    Location
    Mother faber please!
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:48PM
    • Every single year we get the Marc Faber 20% correction prediction. I swear every year since 2010 he's been saying the same thing. Marc please indeed lol

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:25PM
    • Yeah that's right...It's never wise to listen to one of the only people on the planet to predict the GFC.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:26PM
    • JohnBB doesn't realise a broken clock is correct twice a day :P

      I've seen him on CNBC say the same thing every year. I guess he'll only take credit for it and add it to his epic prediction achievements only in the year it that it actually happens. Never mind the 4 other 20% correction calls!

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:00PM
    • and.....there's nothing wrong with economies based on consumption and debt...We can do it forever, never having to contribute a thing to the world...We just take take take,Asia's happy to carry us and always will be...., nothing will go wrong...shares, wages, housing, super, all up forever. We deserve it we're westerners..... LOL indeed. What would Faber know.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:04PM
    • 10 percent of the time, it works everytime.

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:10PM
    • GOOGLE his predictions since 2010 JohnBB... He was correct a couple of times prior to 2010. Congrats to him for those 2 years.

      What about the others? Just keep repeating the same thing no mater what the bull market does. She'll be right LOL

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:34PM
  • It’s got to the point where one would have to question where the Australian or perhaps world economies are heading.

    Rapacious greed appears predominant in all sectors of society and the debilitating component is that a lot of these areas are supposed to be models for the younger generation.

    Directors and CEO’s seem to have no moral ground anymore, Senior public servants secretly enjoy massive wage increases irrelevant of their capabilities, politicians seek to aid and assist financial sectors which have clearly been fraudulent in the past, union officials work only for their own benefit and see their position as an entree into politics.

    When outcomes are analysed it all points to simple greed, nothing more nothing less. More more more.

    Disheartened? Move to another country..no way it’s endemic worldwide.
    What does one expect the next generation to use as models for the future?
    I’m not so much pessimistic as more disappointed.

    Commenter
    Harry Rogers
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:41PM
    • seconded @Harry, lets have some hope that integrity and conscience will over ride blatant self interest as we move forward.But as role models i think we need to look elsewhere.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:35PM
  • After my statement today about the rise in the AllOrds today being due to window-dressing I went back to previous year's trading for 31/3 & 1/4. There was nothing to indicate that the market seemed to be swayed by the end of the quarter. The only notable aspect was that our market now is almost precisely where it was at 31/3/2008 and that was 500 points down from where it was a year earlier.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:30PM
  • invested in a seaside house 20 years ago. we holiday there and rent for the rest .so far outgoings paid for by the tenants ,the property is now worth 14 times what we paid for it,minimised tax. I cant wait for house prices to drop to re invest again but in those 20 years it has never happened . as for global warming over 20 years--none there but if it does i will extend the veranda and call it a pier

    Commenter
    superswitch
    Location
    getting closer to the sea
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:22PM
    • Is it a seaside house or a boat....? Surely after 20 years it's kind of floating...lol.

      Commenter
      Captain Nero
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:15PM
  • Political donations to performance ratio, 100% correlation. Can't get better than that.

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:19PM
    • Eds, please change the CD. It's keeps skipping back to this incoherent tune.

      Commenter
      Rich
      Location
      Investor
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:29PM
  • Can someone explain to me what is so bad about computerised trading?

    A question prompted by the 12.55pm article. A computer is faster than me of course, but if I buy shares I give my broker a price, for eg I'll buy Telstra at $5. They are either available at that price or they are not. How does a fast computer operating in the same market impact on my investment decision? Genuine question seeking genuine answers only please.

    Commenter
    I don't see the problem
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 1:17PM
    • It would only impact the traders who buy at "market" instead of specifying a price.

      Commenter
      confused
      Location
      Syd
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:32PM
    • The computers access and analyse information from a vast number of sources and buy and sell shares accordingly. It is a safe bet that the computers can react much quicker than you ever could to information and outbid you for shares or sell shares out from under you before you have had time to react. Even your distance from the ASX trading computer is a disadvantage. All of the traders that have their computers wired into the ASX trading computer make sure that they are all the same distance apart from each other in the ASX computer room so that one does not have even an infintesimal advantage over the other, and that's just over a few feet. Heaven help you if you are a thousand kms away. Even the speed of electrons down a wire is against you.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:45PM
    • Speed is the key, if the automated trader has a data feed which can detect your open order (real-real time depth) while sweeping everyone other broker for an opposite order ticket. They can purchase the shares before you then fill your order immediately after.

      Commenter
      Patrick & Lorreta
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:46PM
    • Can you explain why it only affects 'at market'? I've noticed that the computers chip away at your buy order to force you into upping your price to close the deal. For example, you want to buy $50k worth of something at a price, they'll purchase about $500 worth and then start pushing the price up. This compels you to push up your buy price otherwise you end up with $500 worth of shares that need to rise about 8% just to break even on your brokerage.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:04PM
    • @ patrick and lorreta. Thank you, but I'm not sure I'm any the wiser. I want to buy Telstra at $5. A computer sees this and does what, buys them at $5.01? Sorry to sound naive, but if that's the case, the computer is welcome to them, because I only want them at $5. Can you be more specific about how I am disadvantaged? Using my Telstra buy as an example?

      Commenter
      I don't see the problem
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:24PM
    • @I don't etc, well that means that you don't get the Telstra, or probably anything else where the bots outbid you. If you do really want them then you will pay more than you o/wise would have and probably more than you wanted to pay.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:32PM
    • @Gareth: Either the shares are available at your stipulated price, or they aren't. Nobody (person or computer) can force you to increase your price and if they do, you are effectively becoming an "at market" buyer. It's increasing demand and declining supply that pushes prices up or down. The same principle applies when you are trying to offload shares nobody wants - you have to keep dropping your price to get buyers, or hold onto your shares and hope that the price comes back up to what you want for them.

      Commenter
      confused
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:34PM
    • If the depth of buy orders are known, enough people will pay slightly more than they wanted for fear of missing out, reasoning a few cents more will still be worth it.
      Foreknowing demand is useful in predicting the price.
      If you miss out that's fine, but if this mechanism is in place that causes you to miss out, then you also have been disadvantaged, ... and maybe thinking $5.01 would have been a good buy afterall.

      Commenter
      Learner
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:52PM
    • @ I don't see the problem No no, you opens a ticket for buy TLS at 5, detected by software immediately, compares with its data feed which encompass all brokers on both exchanges and possibly some CFD like derivative quotes. If there is an order currently below 5 dollar, software complete the trade before your broker and simultaneously filling your order with your broker as well. I am not an expert, but have seen one or two software like this.

      Commenter
      Patrick & Lorreta
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:04PM
    • Try finding some articles relating to computerised trading....short selling. When most algorithms trading start dumping stocks on a small piece of news....well....work it out.

      Commenter
      There is a big problem, open thy eyes...
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:13PM
    • Thanks to all who've responded, but I haven't really heard anything that worries me. As far as I know once my order for $5 is placed, it cannot be overtaken by anyone who comes along after - even nanoseconds after. It can of course be gazumped by someone who is willing to pay $5.01, but that can just as easily be another human, not necessarily a computer. It's then my call, nobody else's, whether I up my offer.

      Commenter
      I don't see the problem
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 3:49PM
  • 1/2 of NAB holding out @ 35.66 that'll do 4 me.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:57PM
  • anybody out there trying to get the dividend statement for TLS from link investor centre, they can not even keep the website up, what a useless system!!

    Commenter
    rene
    Location
    brisbane
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:57PM
    • try getting a transaction history on your comsec trading accounts ...been down all weekend..... 1950's technology!!!

      Commenter
      mutli
      Location
      narrabeen
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:43PM
  • buy 2000 NXT @ 1.94 lets see how the year pans out.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:49PM
  • We all know why it hit a road block in 2012, the Government was playing internal war games and forgot they were supposed to running the country

    Business lending growth fell off a cliff in 2008 before bouncing off very low levels in late 2009/early 2010. But the rebound hit a road block in 2012, business lending growth slowed down, and now looks to have picked back up, if slowly.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-end-of-quarter-rally-20140331-35si3.html#ixzz2xV52YVRw

    Commenter
    Sir Aussie Al
    Location
    Adelaide
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:42PM
  • Great photo of Steen Jakobsen. He is literally popping out of the page at us just like his many comments. Perhaps he likes to err on the side of caution!
    Cheers

    Commenter
    Optimist
    Location
    Hi Eds
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:40PM
  • RE: Australian Housing

    Australian housing is just another tale of a boom/bust trade. You have a great trade so everyone piles in. Property prices tripled under the Howard government. Then you have particularly thick people who think this is normal and make investment decisions based on those previous returns. You also have no shortage of real estate agents, newspapers who sell advertising to the real estate industry, finance brokers, bankers, lawyers, seminar hosts etc who make a killing parting dumb people with their money.

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    Location
    Broadbeach
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:37PM
  • I remember back in 2008 this smooth talking American guy I know was telling me Australia housing was in a huge bubble, worse than the US one and was about to pop at any moment.

    Fortunately I haven't been holding my breath!

    Commenter
    are we there yet?
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:30PM
  • Here is a hypothetical story down at the Charlie Aiken headquarters.

    Charlie is walking by a junior brokers desk and sees him about to buy ANZ. Charlie absolutely loses it and goes mental at the poor kid... "ARE YOU NUTS??? You were going to buy ANZ without checking the political donations list?? OH GOODNESS YOU NOOBS ARE TERRIBLE!!!! I swear you can't find quality help these days, if you want something done you gotta do it yourself".

    Junior broker is then scarred for life but then always makes sure to check the political donations list before making every single trade. It is by far far the most important rule in the share market.

    Let this be a lesson to you all :)

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:28PM
    • Chris Joye is very close to the coalition.

      His article can be seen in the same light as the RBA's attempt to warn about housing prices.

      The libs do not want a high dollar, which is injurious to their mining and farming support base. So they are trying to use "warnings" to get house prices down rather than rate rises.

      Commenter
      pass the red
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:04PM
    • The most successful share buying demographic (apart from the Warren Buffett named one) is US Congressmen.

      Now go figure if they are:

      a.) The luckiest people on the planet.
      b.) Privelaged to information ahead of the market.
      c.) A fluke of unbelievable coincidence.

      If I told you you can only opt for 2 of the 3, you wouldn't include c as a pick.

      So does political donation have any relevance to public policy and therefore economic decision making, well clearly when you cut out the middle men you end up with Eddie Obeid.

      In all honesty and on reflection, you have to conclude that that was all he was doing ... namely, efficiently reforming the (already corrupt) process !!

      Commenter
      Joe the POM
      Location
      Geelong
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:08PM
    • LOL.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:09PM
    • Apologies my 1.04pm comment was accidentally placed on this thread rather than stand alone.

      Commenter
      pass the red
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:27PM
    • And I've often wondered about some of our own politicians who seem to leave office much wealthier than when they came in.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:54PM
    • @mitch of ACT...and only rarely can anything be proven. Some of them are smart cunning and very crooked. If only they used it for our benefit..

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:56PM
    • Yes our polititians should have to submit statements of assets and liabilitys annually with an independant audit function incorporated

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:17PM
  • The end-of-quarter rally. Unusual for the market to actually be up on a Monday. Window-dressing must be one reason, which means today's buys could be a lot cheaper tomorrow.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:19PM
    • happy to purchase 10000 BDR @ 58,5c up already so timing in the mix also,go the goldies.
      back down 2moro part and parcel.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:37PM
    • I sense you may well be spot on as usual @ Mitch. Nice pick up @ BSB, I bought a parcel at the same price, why are they so cheap?

      Commenter
      market observer
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:53PM
  • So what are the predictions for the ASX and miners if China's stimulus talk comes to fruition. Does that make RIO and BHP a strong buy at their current prices?

    Commenter
    bargain hunter
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:16PM
    • In short the answer would be yes but do your own research. they are well priced to buy/accumulate.

      ps - If you are expecting info on a legitimate market related question you must be new to this blog.

      Commenter
      Sir Aussie Al
      Location
      Adelaide
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:48PM
  • Can we ban LOL? It's so bogan, last decade, juvenile.

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 12:10PM
    • Only if we can ban Norway for all their whaling injustices and their mismanagement of investments from fossil fuel profits,polluters and enviromental vandals.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:45PM
    • LOL

      Commenter
      ROFL
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:50PM
  • So according to the political donations list SOL made a $250,000 donation to the Libs.

    What are SOL's primary operations?(apart from owning other companies shares):

    Coal mining
    Copper mining
    Corporate advisory

    Figures. Glad I don't own any shares in that company.

    Commenter
    Basic
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:59AM
  • What the hell is going on at CAJ?

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:59AM
    • Its going up......sell
      good times for all.
      cycle = buy in 40's jump out above that

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:15PM
    • Not sure exactly what might be the case here but I have enjoyed this slow and steady rise. I wish all my holdings showed 180% growth! Nevertheless some health stocks surely do have some great growth potential being proved. Lookout a new dawn is coming in 2014. TAKE SOME PROFITS NOW

      Commenter
      Calia
      Location
      Brisbane
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:46PM
  • I chickened out of commencing a AUD short. As usual, I think I'll stay right away from currency until it's stupidly swayed in one direction (high 90s)

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:58AM
    • The recent AUD plays have been US$1.03 to US$0.90 and US$0.97 to US$0.88. There's better trades around now in my opinion.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:16PM
    • I reckon its worth a little dabble. I am buying some VTS and will sell when Au goes back sub90.

      Commenter
      Panhandler
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:55PM
    • I should add that I am financing the short by selling some Woodside shares that have been a red stain on the balance sheet now for some time. Never again, I think.

      Commenter
      Panhandler
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:59PM
    • I recently added VTS to my watchlist but yeah, it's the timing of the AUD and I would also like to get VTS after a correction (maybe in a few months).

      Last year was perfect for VTS, was much lower and the aud over $1.... sigh :(

      My plan is to get more into the US market, whether it's vts or direct shares. Just waiting for the right conditions.

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:16PM
  • "No I'm the guy they call after all else has failed and I charged them accordingly. You don't want to know how much."

    Commenter
    guess who
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:47AM
  • One of the biggest bull traps in history now in the making. Pollyannas going bananas.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:47AM
    • problem is you've been saying this for a while now.lol

      Commenter
      no banks .. no party!
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:09PM
    • Yes, I well remember you have been advocating the biggest short of all times since 5100. Any reason your prediction will be different this time!

      Commenter
      Mister5100
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:34PM
    • It will be different this time as he has said it so many more times now

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 2:20PM
  • Took my MGX blinkers off this morning and was pleasantly surprised,only got those RIO wounds to lick for awhiles yet.
    avg @ 0.925 and 64.90

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:45AM
  • "Toy wholesaler Funtastic, which counts Lachlan Murdoch and Gerry Harvey as shareholders and hasn’t paid a dividend for six years, has once again withheld its interim distribution after reporting a bottom line loss of $25.88 million for the January half."

    It's all about the dividends. LOL.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:45AM
  • R. Gittens........."Murray inquiry into the financial system should be asking whether Australia would be better off with a smaller finance industry".......

    Not going to happen. Check political donations register for confirmation.

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:41AM
  • NEXTDC ticker NXT
    is it a growth company coming into buying territory?surely secure data storage is a nice little earner?tempting.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:33AM
  • "Climate change is already being felt in all corners of the globe and some parts of the natural world may already be undergoing irreversible change, a major assessment by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has found."

    Nah,,, the Arctic sea ice is growing rapidly!!!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OBCXWAHo5I

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:29AM
    • Allan, the average global temperature is 15 degrees C. Increase in the last 134 years is 0.85 degrees C which is 5.7%. I recognise that if you made a trade that went up 5.7% in 134 years you would consider it a "gift", but the rest of us need more like 5.7% per day before we get excited.

      Commenter
      Gareth
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:57AM
    • Gosh being such a low lying suburb Prahran that is, inundation would cause property prices to literally submerge.
      How is that Eds ? Possibility of a job? Bad investment for the longer term perhaps! Have you considered a Gondola?

      Commenter
      PDJ
      Location
      Living high on a hill !
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:02PM
  • Yieldseekers out there i'm not sayin its a definate buy,but concentrating on share price values and company data,i'm seeing the following as tempting:
    MCR buy around 62c
    MXI buy @ 1.15
    DWS buy @ 1.15
    CUP by @ 1.72
    i'm certainly going for some top ups.
    all food for thought,and divds for food :-')

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:29AM
    • Right now the objective should be to find companies that will PAY a fully franked dividend with a good yield between now and 30th June in order to get the franking credits refunded with the 13/14 tax return. O/wise its a long, long wait for franking credits paid after 30th June, particularly if for an SMSF. I have a list of likely buys but the market is looking high at the moment. We'll see what the expected dip going into May and onwards does.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:12PM
  • LOL even Chris Joye can't deny the obvious. House prices are unsustainable. Australia is not special.

    All the bulls san do now is claim that if you can't name the exact second prices will collapse then it can't happen. It's the same reason they don't buy house insurance. The insurance companies can't tell what day they will be burgled.

    Bulls belted. Again.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:26AM
    • But you say it everyday, and it's always going to happen soon!

      The sky is falling!

      Tell me when Allan, tell me when!!

      Commenter
      heybert
      Location
      Sesame Street
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:15PM
  • Dammit etrade,first you dont change the ticker for CFX to CFXDA,after me prompting you do.Then when they finally trade as CFX again you leave it as CFXDA...losing money not trading in the interim when could have sold for 1.97 now @ 1.89.......surely we have some spare QAN/car workers to take over these easy jobs? its a battle.sorry venting.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:21AM
    • CFX is looking cheap lately, I sold out after div and spp... Haven't been following since but price is starting to look good again.

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:44AM
  • Why is BDR 58 cents?

    Commenter
    Tina Fey
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:17AM
    • because i want to buy them for that price.
      SLR for 0.425 still would not go near them.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:41AM
    • On fundamentals, shouldn't be. Very profitable operation with P/E of 4. But sentiment has been flowing in opposite direction. I dont normally avg down but I have been on this one. A rise in the POG wouldn't hurt.

      Commenter
      Yin or yang
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:46AM
    • Because it has lost exactly fifty cents from its high of 30th Nov 2012?
      Oh right ! But don't worry it was last trading at 60.25 at 12.10 pm. Slightly better perhaps?

      Commenter
      PDJ
      Location
      A trick question perhaps ? Hi
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:12PM
    • Another BUST courtesy of Australian advisors LOL

      Commenter
      Tina Fey
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:18PM
    • 0.61 now yeeeeeeeeh [12.30]
      got 10000 @ .585

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:30PM
  • Is now a good time to borrow $500k to buy an investment property to rent out for $350 a week?

    Commenter
    Crash Bandicoot
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:14AM
    • Don't have to have a long neck to be a goose eh?

      Commenter
      Property Doomsayer
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:15PM
  • Buying shares 101. Make sure the company has a strong advantage. Make a ball park valuation. Gauge where society/trends/economy is going.

    By far, far, far most importantly, look on the Australian political donations register to see how they're going to "influence" policy. Beyond disgraceful.

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:11AM
    • Thanks for the tip John. I'm not sure how I have ever got by without such good advice. I will ensure that before I ever by a new stock the first thing I will ever look at is the political donations list. Thanks again.

      Commenter
      Rich
      Location
      Investor
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:26AM
    • Yeah good one Rich...Try and spell correctly too hey?

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:35AM
    • um ok LOL

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:39AM
    • Golden investing advice followed by life-changing spelling advice. And all for free. It's my lucky day.

      Commenter
      Rich
      Location
      Investor
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:10PM
    • What are you saying there GS? Not making much sense.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:12PM
  • Russia's got to be near a buy strong?

    NYSE has an etf.....RSX

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:07AM
  • Shorters getting belted again....and again...

    Commenter
    Dicky Fuld.
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 11:06AM
    • Are u on the bulls "team"?

      Commenter
      J.
      Location
      Syd.
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:24AM
  • Stretched wages to RE prices already. What happens when the wages bubble bursts? In the globalised Australia we've all cheered on, it's coming.

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:56AM
  • I am happy to take up a mortgage on Sydney real estate at around 1%pa (simple interest). With the cash rate to reach around 0.025%pa in order to further sustain & boost the real estate bubble, I believe 1% is a rather attractive rate. Hurry all Banks, this offer won't last. But there's more....the first four banks to call, will receive my take up of a credit card rate offer at around 0.5%pa (simple interest)....Hurry.

    *disclaimer...the mortgagee may default at any chosen time without any notice to the lender.

    Commenter
    New Age Real Estate Investor
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:51AM
  • Incredible understatement.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-bubble-fears-property-prices-could-fall-10-to-20-per-cent-20140331-35sg7.html

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:38AM
  • Few comments re interest rates....They won't be controlled by the RBA. Global rates are rising and so will they here given much of the money is borrowed from OS.

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:37AM
  • If you want to trade far more effectively see what's about to happen, or NOT happen. 100% correlated, 100% disgusting and apparently legal

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/interactives/tables/aec-political-donations-table/

    Commenter
    JohnBB
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:31AM
    • Political donations have nothing to do with market trading. 0% correlation. Another attempt to turn a markets blog into a political soap box.

      Commenter
      DraftReader
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 10:44AM
    • personnel contracting - $60K to australian christian party.try finding any details about personnel contracting. I couldnt find a thing. Id love to know what sort of contracting they do?

      Commenter
      smilingjack
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:07AM
    • You're right and the list is wrong DraftReader.

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:16AM
    • "Political donations have nothing to do with market trading. 0% correlation" Talk about living in an alternate reality. And bear in mind that they are only the reported donations. The stories about brown-paper envelopes stuffed with cash being given to politicians emerge on a fairly regular basis. Look what happens to the share prices of companies involved when those bribes are exposed and govt's unwind the cosy deals.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:27AM
    • Mitch and JohnBB: So now that you read that list, what correlation can you see in relation to share price of the companies listed? Are you going to invest in those companies more or less based off that list? Do you think some hedge fund is going to short/long the businesses on that list because of political donations? Do you think they check to see what political party companies donate to before they pull the trigger? What if they donate equally to both or more parties? Unless you can come up with a handful of correlated scenarios that have happened in the aussie domestic market the list is nothing but the usual stunt by the usual suspects to bash some pollies in this forum.

      Commenter
      DraftReader
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 4:33PM
  • Housing over valued, AUD $ overvalued what does a world banker know about this brown and pleasant land ROFLMAO
    Its coming people!

    Commenter
    Pete the Pom
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:24AM
    • When Pete? Or will you make this claim for twenty years then say i told you so

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 10:37AM
    • Mid July 2014

      Commenter
      Pete the pom
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:26AM
  • I see the ridiculous statements from Qan Unionists, that epitomises all that has always been wrong with Au
    Job security for our kids and grand kids was the statement on air the other day
    So start your own airline
    Nobody is owned a living, get an education that way you can choose, sweep the car park or be a brain surgeon But quit bitching

    Commenter
    stu
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:21AM
    • Stu,

      You seem to be 'owed' a living!

      Commenter
      Joe the POM
      Location
      Geelong
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 10:42AM
    • Two decades of rising wages and other benefits on a formerly successful airline has made them completely unable to comprehend how they are cutting off their noses to spite their own faces. They're gonna learn the very, very hard way. But the blindness and greed is across the board and especially across the company boards at the big end of town; they make the unions look like rank amateurs.

      Commenter
      Catch 22
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 10:48AM
    • @stu...I've completed two degrees in my area of "choosing" as you put it, can't find a decent job, I'm working but certainly not in the "chosen" field...what a waste, time and money wasted. Should've cleaned the streets, better opportunities, at least in Australia.
      Another example...fellow class mate, much higher marks than mine, very smart guy now selling mobile phones in a shopping centre
      Yet another example...five class mates, left Australia roughly four years ago, couldn't find a job down under, now doing fantastic in HK and Dubai, vowed never to return.
      Stu...if you haven't been in a recent position yourself, ie. as a uni graduate...with all respect, limit your career advise please.

      Commenter
      Student
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:05AM
    • Yes, I suppose that these days it's way too much to expect that a company that calls itself Australian would actually consider that it has any responsibility to provide jobs to locals. After all, o/seas workers are much cheaper to employ because their cost of living is lower and if the company has a lot of work done by o/seas companies it can shift its profits off shore and reduce its Australian tax while happily taking money off Australians for overpriced air-fares and one ridiculous surcharge after the other.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:06AM
    • @student of sydney, pull the other one. what would a studnet be doing on this thread, cool story though Hansel! @stu, I agree you survive or die, the ones that whinge are the ones that die rather slowly and loudly. Hurts my ears, so I flick channels. Im grateful for every day I have employment but am always ready to explore new opprtunities or lack there of. These are the same people that criticise those that save money. Well they will be eating those words if they havent scraped some pennies away. They leave Mum's titt and go straight for the union's titt.

      Commenter
      the official note taker
      Location
      for Markets Live
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:16AM
    • .Kevin Kleine, Fish called Wanda........"You English are so superior".......

      Commenter
      JohnBB
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:24AM
    • @Joe , nope self employed all my life, made stuff with my hands, driven by a brain
      @ Mitch, expected your reply and you supplied verbatim, and the tax? 600 from a 3000 fare
      Yes I know, my kids have no work either, whose bloody fault?
      And yes there are people with degrees out of work, but degrees in what? there are no engineers, chemical, mechanical, civil,mining out of work
      Read a book by Shute, about how this small airline employed Asians as pilots and engineers, why? because of the work ethic
      And this was in the 50,s

      Commenter
      stu
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:26AM
    • it may very well be time for Australians to lower their expectations, two cars a 4x4 being one of them, a house in the Burbs, a barby, unlimited xxxx and sending kids to private schools
      A house for of useless unneeded stuff, like plasma tv,s, do you see a house with a library these days?
      Huge mortgages and so on and on
      I have 41000 blue chip shares here and I own a 3000 car
      I do not owe a cent and I made it all lil by lil, with my hands since a very early age

      Commenter
      stu
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 11:38AM
    • @Stu. Without fail, tradies do not see the connection between their income and wages. They also pay lip service to the how bad it use to be when there were no unions.

      Commenter
      Wally
      Location
      Flynn
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 12:40PM
    • 2014 stu, libraries replaced by ereaders,all the knowledge still available and quicker to access,its a great time to learn.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Pamplona
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:35PM
    • @ Mitch, for a patriotic Aussie you sure hate QANTAS and want to kill them off by imposing conditions on them. Isn't this bipolar?

      Commenter
      Hitch
      Location
      Canberra
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:43PM
    • @ student, hardly a tough luck story. When I graduated in '83 the U/E rate peaked at over 10%. Get real. It's your task to make yourself relevant and employable.

      Commenter
      Hitch
      Location
      Canberra
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 1:49PM
  • As much as I'd like it to be, I don't think Sydney's housing market is going to sink any time before the RBA lifts the rate to 5.

    Commenter
    oliver
    Location
    sydney
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:17AM
  • Big week for Discovery metals with possible refinance deal to be announced. Been a long journey!

    Commenter
    Happy hippy
    Location
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 10:04AM
  • Housing overvalued by 10%,currency up to new year highs late last week,so odds on theres a 100% chance of no rate rise for the first half of 2014.If the bubble bursts or the $ falls we might get a look at something higher but 25 base points max.
    gooo the goldies.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Pamplona
    Date and time
    March 31, 2014, 9:27AM
    • And to think that one of the big bank's financial analysts was in here last week arguing that housing affordability was comparable to historical levels.

      Commenter
      Basic
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 9:52AM
    • Thanks! you have answered my question "When will be house bubble burst" hahahah

      Commenter
      Hugo
      Location
      Date and time
      March 31, 2014, 10:22AM

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