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Markets Live: Fortescue slumps

Date

Stocks trade lower, with both banks and miners posting losses after Wall Street slumped for a second day and commodities were sold off, while bond markets rallied again.

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  • When will Australia be protected from company collapses like below?

    Director that contributes to company collapse, sends smiley face text to those affected, then shares in $3.8 million gain:

    http://www.innovationmentor.com.au/1/post/2014/04/directorsmileytext.html

    Commenter
    bradyG
    Date and time
    May 16, 2014, 4:36PM
    • And as new coal mines are being developed and opened, existing coal mines are shutting down due to low coal prices. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-16/500-hunter-valley-coal-miners-laid-off/5458280
      Eventually the realisation will dawn that the world is falling out of love with coal. It has too many problems from the extraction phase right through to the burning phase leaving an unpleasant legacy. Its only legitimate use is for smelting ore and one day an alternative will be found for that.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Date and time
      May 16, 2014, 4:28PM
      • Fortescue closed at $4.56. Just so ya know! Citi said the target is $5.50. Oh yeah chums? Let me play a song to you folks from the great AC/DC..."it's a long way to the top if you wanna rock'n roll"...and then play Elton John's, "it think it's gonna be a long, long time". Chiti, you got it wrong man! Bye bye. GG.

        Commenter
        Gordon Gekko
        Location
        Greg Coffey World
        Date and time
        May 16, 2014, 4:12PM
        • Fortescue slumps. I like it!

          Commenter
          Allan
          Location
          Prahran
          Date and time
          May 16, 2014, 4:01PM
          • I told ya. Last week. I asked "FMG: Citi says buy, Goldman Sachs said sell", then along came JP Morgan who tried to upset the applecart to go long on iron ore producers. Today, Jim Chanos described Fortescue..."full steam ahead". Yeah, right, at the edge of one of those Grand Canyon clifts...full steam ahead...yahoo! Ah well, those guys at Goldmans really know their stuff. That bloke Lloyd Blankfein is a great bloke, so much I'm going to buy a shiny pink skullcap and a Joe Hockey cigar when I'm done with Twiggy. Sure to put a smile on one's face! Full steam ahead, look out below!

            Commenter
            Gordon Gekko
            Location
            Greg Coffey World
            Date and time
            May 16, 2014, 3:45PM
            • A good article by Michael Pascoe. When will the masses wake up to the rorting opportunities given to the wealthy while they're being told to "do the heavy lifting"?

              Commenter
              Buff
              Location
              Sydney
              Date and time
              May 16, 2014, 2:53PM
              • Like big business and high wealth persons making losses on shoddy / speculative investments (housing, RE, high risk stocks) who then claim tax losses at the expense of the average worker? All sides of government are to blame for this.

                Commenter
                Liberator
                Location
                SEQLD
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 3:37PM
              • At the other end of the scale self-funded retirees face unlimited number of medical co-payments whereas age pensioners are limited to 10 pa. So I can imagine now that financial planners are devising ways to get their SMSF clients on to the age pension. It's not hard. The Budget improvement from the co-payment will be offset by the increase in age pensions paid. I wonder if anyone warned the gov't about the likely "response effect" to both the debt levy & the co-payment.

                Commenter
                mitch of ACT
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 3:52PM
            • @Johnbb - change my user name ? - oh I get it - LOL - strangely enough I knew some of them at Uni

              Commenter
              Julia
              Location
              central vic
              Date and time
              May 16, 2014, 2:22PM
              • @Julia, I hope you didn't stand between them and a wall at any time.

                Commenter
                mitch of ACT
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 4:12PM
            • Dr No made an excellent point. Next week's EU elections are going to be a MASSIVE slap in the face to the political class.

              On current polls:

              The UK Independence Party will win in Britain, pushing Labour and the Conservatives into 2nd and 3rd

              The National Front will win in France, pushing the two 'big' parties into 2nd and 3rd

              Similar results are possible in the Netherlands and Austria.

              Greece's winning party looks to be the radical socialist Syriza. The neo nazi Golden Dawn looks set to be the 3rd biggest party in Greece.

              In Hungary, the neo nazis will do even better, coming second.

              Europe is on the cusp of a political revolution, the European equivalents of Liberal and Labor are going to be smashed.

              Commenter
              Fred
              Date and time
              May 16, 2014, 2:16PM
              • All in all, Obama's blueberries will be squeezed ever harder. Europeans will increasingly demand that the European Central Bank stops supporting the Federal Reserve by buying US treasury notes, and European money printing will hopefully be stopped. UKIP is partial towards Russia, and the Front National is officially allied with Putin's United Russia party.

                The petrodollar and Fed QE ponzi-scheme will fall apart. If the dollar sinks the US can no longer afford its overseas bases. The US empire-building project will come to an end.

                Commenter
                Dr No
                Location
                Sydney
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 4:23PM
            • ED : Time to give a quick run up on the Indian election results pouring in & the stock market has shot up by 1000+ points !!

              ED: Voila.

              Commenter
              clueless
              Location
              wonderland
              Date and time
              May 16, 2014, 1:54PM
              • Just remind yourself that a lot of the money (not all, but especially at the higher end of the market) from Chinese investors in real estate in Oz is proceeds of crime and corruption. Be careful, the police might just come looking for it one day. The term 'princelings' is polite language for crooks.

                http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/30/a_family_affair

                Commenter
                JJ
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 1:46PM
                • Chanos..."China’s anti-corruption crusade will pull money out of Australian realty".....Blood in the streets is coming. Get ready for the Meriton and other developer fire sales...

                  Commenter
                  JohnBB
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 2:55PM
                • Then watch the price of property fall as those properties are dumped onto the market by the Chinese authorities to recover what cash they can. Corrupt officials have a habit of falling out of favour, then their assets are fair game.

                  Commenter
                  mitch of ACT
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 3:03PM
              • It's worse then that. They are actually leaving economic land mines behind so that the other party gets blamed for the consequences while in power.
                How can the public "asses performance" when a section of the media is completely dedicated to fighting dirty for one side, and real economics is ignored by both sides. Home inflation as legitimate wealth generation? Politically good (for a while), but theoretically and ethically disastrous. Real economists know that Howard blew the boom on pork and Tony is not making things any better with his 1950s inspired policies.

                Commenter
                Andy
                Location
                Melb
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 1:41PM
                • Sorry, but it's not 1950s policies. Australia in the 50s was still quite an egalitarian society.

                  Voodoo free market extremism is a much more recent mindset!

                  Commenter
                  Fred
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 2:07PM
                • Well said Andy....Yes every politician we've had for 30 years is the exact wrong person to be running a country. Where's all the ministers that stood within a party and screamed what we're doing is madness? Never hapepns. Parties are a disater for Australia. The best we can do is get rid of all of them. Some real insightful posts today (espec the featured one)....We are headed for doom because of the clowns we continually elect. We need a national conversation about where we want to head instead of term after term of tricks, vandalism and corruption.

                  Commenter
                  JohnBB
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 2:16PM
                • @Andy...""asses performance"

                  Did you mean that?

                  Commenter
                  JohnBB
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 2:57PM
                • I stand corrected.

                  Commenter
                  Andy
                  Location
                  Melb
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 2:58PM
              • 1:10pm - referencing MH370 our prime minister found it some weeks ago ... I specifically remember him telling Parliament (and the rest of the World) how f..king fantastic we were down here in little old OZ and we'd found it .. As sure as eggs is eggs.

                He's so clever that one!!

                He so loves the sound of his own voice echoing around the globe!!

                Commenter
                Joe the POM
                Location
                Geelong
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 1:31PM
                • I know for a fact that Tony was out there in his budgies with a pair of goggles looking for the plane himself. What a guy!

                  Commenter
                  Buff
                  Location
                  Sydney
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 2:58PM
              • ""In 2007 the average EBITDA multiple was 9.7x Now its 9.7x again but the average leverage 5.3 times, now which is higher than 2007"

                The spivs, shysters and pollyannas are partying hard.

                Housing boom!

                Commenter
                Allan
                Location
                Prahran
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 1:31PM
                • LOL! He's talking about the amount of debt Private Equity company's are using to buy firms, which is greater than 2007 because interest rates are lower!!

                  Not sure how that will affect property prices.......!

                  Commenter
                  Life Is Good
                  Location
                  The Real World
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 3:12PM
              • "Fledgling demand from China’s residential property sector has led steel producers to push supplies overseas in an attempt to try and sell record inventories."

                So now you know what those record shipments of iron ore are being used for.

                Housing boom!

                Commenter
                Allan
                Location
                Prahran
                Date and time
                May 16, 2014, 1:28PM
                • "The world’s largest short-seller, Jim Chanos, is eyeing leveraged coal and iron ore players in Australia as China’s real estate market boom shows signs of slowing."

                  Nobody bagging Jim Chanos now?

                  Commenter
                  Allan
                  Location
                  Prahran
                  Date and time
                  May 16, 2014, 1:08PM
                  • Incredible. Trading continued in DDR after the Pre-open ended with another 14000 shares going at 35c above the opening price.

                    Commenter
                    mitch of ACT
                    Date and time
                    May 16, 2014, 12:57PM
                    • Incredible again. Those shares in DDR that were traded at up to 35c over the open after the incorrect dividend announcement have been unwound.

                      Commenter
                      mitch of ACT
                      Date and time
                      May 16, 2014, 2:49PM
                  • DDR have now issued a revised dividend declaration for $0.007 cents per share compared to $0.70. I wonder if the shares sold at up to 35c above the opening price will be unwound. I tried to warn the company & the ASX but all I got was menus & runarounds.

                    Commenter
                    mitch of ACT
                    Date and time
                    May 16, 2014, 12:50PM
                    • Typo or mis-read. DDR has declared a fully-franked dividend of $0.70 per share on a share trading at around $1.60 to $1.70.
                      http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140516/pdf/42pnt7mz45fm4c.pdf
                      It's last report showed $140,000 in cash & approx 127m closely held shares on issue. The dividend would cost $144m in cash & franking credits. NTA was $0.15 in their last report. Usual dividends are between 1 & 3 cents. The share price leapt after the announcement. Tried to ring the company to confirm but all I got was their sales line. Tried to ring ASX but all I got was a looping menu.

                      Commenter
                      mitch of ACT
                      Date and time
                      May 16, 2014, 12:40PM
                      • FMG sliding again, QAN up, Happy days. Where are you pig iron bob?

                        Enjoy!

                        Commenter
                        Allan
                        Location
                        Prahran
                        Date and time
                        May 16, 2014, 12:17PM
                        • So the big bad budget had no affect on markets leading up to, and, after. Go figure. Again nothing more than a Media beat up with union supporters and welfare recipients crying poor. Unfortunately the debt grows faster than revenue and hopefully the LNP can stem the flow somewhat.

                          May down is coming BTW. So to is the next holiday!

                          Commenter
                          Liberator
                          Location
                          SEQLD
                          Date and time
                          May 16, 2014, 11:02AM
                          • Liberator, I agree with a lot of what you say, but not here.

                            Of course, a job is preferable to welfare. However, it may come as a shock, but sometimes people want a job but can't get one. My wife is desperately searching for a job, and no, she's not being a 'job snob' but unfortunately it is taking some time .

                            If she was single, she would have no income at all! I can't believe in 21st century Australia we will put many under 30's into a position of choosing between crime and starvation.

                            And as for getting rid of the deficit. It is simple. Don't spend over $12 billion on Joint Strike Fighters ("on the credit card", no less) that haven't even been proven to work yet. Don't give $8 billion to the reserve bank that it didn't ask for. Don't spend $20 billion on a tax write off, sorry, medical research fund. Toughen the mining tax. Problem solved, without forcing under 30s into crime, without making people work til they're dead, without telling lies.

                            Commenter
                            Fred
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 11:30AM
                          • Cutting gov't benefits does little, if anything, to improve the Budget bottom line because the multiplier effect and the rapid turnover of cash given out as benefits, means that most of that benefit cash comes back to the gov't as taxes on wages, business profits & GST. There are still too many tax expenditures that have not been plugged and tax rates on the high income earners should be revised upwards. Then there's profit-shifting by the multi-nationals. Just because there are so many poor govt's should not take the easy way out by using their misery to solve Budget problems.

                            Commenter
                            mitch of ACT
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 11:32AM
                          • @Fred: your wife can't get a job in an economy running at less than 6% unemployment?
                            Does she have a third level education and relevant experience?
                            #genuinely interested

                            Commenter
                            Irish Phil
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 11:55AM
                          • Looking forward to the massive rises in Uni fees..when our kids leave they will have huge debts and no chance of getting a house and then of course when they cannot get a job they will have no money anyway and the HEC bill increasing at an alarming rate!
                            Of course Jokion Joe said it was a budget for our children...not sure they will agree!

                            Commenter
                            Henry
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 12:05PM
                          • I agree with Mitch - also banker on Q&A Monday night - abolish negative gearing, introduce tax for high levels of super and force very large corporations to pay appropriate tax and you've probably solved the budget problem - also on a nationwide level to get rid of bureaucratic duplication reduce government to two levels and not the current three - dissolve states to name only and have a federal govt with regional representation - preferable bioregional - Tony abbot and co no more than unimaginative ideologues trying to turn Australia into the 51st state of the USA

                            Commenter
                            julia
                            Location
                            central victoria
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 12:07PM
                          • @ Irish Phil, she is university educated. She will get a job soon, I've no doubt. With the amount she spends on shopping she can't not!

                            My point is for some who are already struggling, and who don't have a comfortable family to fall back on, the period in between jobs will inevitably lead some to desperation, if there is no welfare at all as safety net. We can't all just snap our fingers and get a job at the drop of a hat.

                            Do people honestly think young men behind on their rent and bills, maybe with a baby to feed, who then lose their job will not be inclined to turn to crime?

                            But, I suppose Australia was founded by convicts who were forced to choose between starvation and stealing to feed themselves, so it could be viewed as re-discovering our heritage.

                            P.S. do you really believe the 6% unemployment statistic?

                            Commenter
                            Fred
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 12:35PM
                          • @Julia. None of that can happen because of the people it affects. Look at the donations to lnp receive and you'll know. Please change your user name too.

                            Commenter
                            JohnBB
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 1:38PM
                          • @Johnbb - change my user name ? - oh I get it - LOL - strangely enough I knew some of them at Uni

                            Commenter
                            Julia
                            Location
                            central vic
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 2:11PM
                          • @Fred: yes I do believe the 6% unemployment rate. Of the 200-300 adults in my social circle, I can't think of a single one who is out of work.
                            A small sample size for sure, but it is all I have to go on (other than the official stats).

                            Commenter
                            Iirish Phil
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 2:35PM
                          • Fred, if your wife was truly "desparate", she would take any job she could get! Clearly you are not struggling so she can take her time looking "desparately" for the job she WANTS, not what she needs.

                            And given she is no doubt ignoring jobs she doesn't like and concentrating on those she wants, why should we the taxpayers pay for her to have the liuxury of choice?

                            Commenter
                            Life Is Good
                            Location
                            The Real World
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 3:21PM
                          • I am yet to meet or speak to a person this year who is participating in 'forced' unemployment... they all work, are retiring or voluntarily stay at home looking after the kids!

                            The entire tax base can be fixed with one change - abolish all tax write offs and concessions.

                            Commenter
                            Liberator
                            Location
                            SEQLD
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 4:12PM
                        • Last Sunday, in a new record for Germany, 75% of the nation's electricity use came from renewable energy.

                          http://cleantechnica.com/2014/05/15/germany-reaches-nearly-75-renewable-power-use-sunday/

                          Meanwhile, in Australia, 20% by 2020 is too much to ask.

                          Commenter
                          Fred
                          Date and time
                          May 16, 2014, 10:59AM
                            • On a Sunday, when industry is down, they reached that percentage. Oh, and paying three times as much as Americans for that energy. Meanwhile, the next day when industry started up again, the nuclear power, imported Polish brown coal and Russian gas, were the main providers of base load again.

                              Let's see how German energy politics will play out in the future. There is a big risk that it will take down the entire German mighty industry with it.

                              Commenter
                              Dr No
                              Location
                              Sydney
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 11:29AM
                            • On TV last night that "hideously ugly" wind-farm at Lake George. Looked magnificent. Farmers get $10,000 pa for each tower on their land and they still have full use of the land for grazing livestock. The farm generates enough power for 60,000 homes. And Hockey wants to stop these. IDIOT!.

                              Commenter
                              mitch of ACT
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 11:36AM
                            • mitch: supposedly the low level background noise drives people and livestock insane? Perhaps those people should try living in Sydney where they can never escape the low level background noise of an airbus's almost taking the roof off your house every 20 minutes!

                              Commenter
                              DR
                              Location
                              syd
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 11:50AM
                            • I suppose beauty is in the eye of the beholder Mitch. To me they are a blight on the rural skyline...as are power lines.
                              When they become economical without the need of huge subsidies I'm sure they will be still built. At the moment they are powered by subsidies not wind.
                              Yes i know about the diesel rebate...quite a different kettle of fish however.

                              Commenter
                              happy Hippy
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 11:55AM
                            • mitch, i have liked joe the few times ive met him, but i do agree windmills are good, and personally i like seeing windmills as part of the horizon/ landscape. A smart man making a dumb comment

                              Commenter
                              Wwwish Lion
                              Location
                              Melbourne
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 12:13PM
                            • The world's most energy sustainable countries with European and Nordics in the lead. Canada and NZ are doing well. Many of these countries are likely to be leaders in this field and export world class energy technology to rest of the world, whilst Australia will still be focusing on selling coal, sad really.

                              http://www.smartplanet.com/photos/top-10-countries-for-energy-sustainability/

                              Commenter
                              Viking
                              Location
                              Sydney
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 12:44PM
                            • High flying bank executive who rubs shoulders with the treasurer.

                              http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f8/Internet_dog.jpg

                              Commenter
                              Allan
                              Location
                              Prahran
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 1:19PM
                            • Allan, as i have repeatedly told you in the past i am not a bank executive..When i met joe he was not treasurer he was still in opposition, but yes he seemed like a good guy (more than i can say about some Allan)

                              Commenter
                              Wwwish Lion
                              Location
                              Melbourne
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 1:41PM
                          • we need a bit of Putin madness! that's what we need.

                            Commenter
                            no banks .. no party!
                            Location
                            where's that putin c..t
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 10:56AM
                            • LOL! Yeah, probably right. Are you on your knees worshiping your temple..."oh holy one, please start a war". GG.

                              Commenter
                              Gordon Gekko
                              Location
                              Greg Coffey World
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 2:53PM
                          • Lots of excitements in the the bond and currency markets, well, as exciting as those kind of markets get anyway. Russia preparing for an all-out assault on the US fiat currency by dumping $26 billion of its US treasury notes. Meanwhile, the mystery buyer on the Belgian market snapped up another $40 billion. The Fed, or one of its pawns, buying to create an illusion of stability?

                            It's all a big build-up for next week Tuesday when Putin goes to Beijing to sign the gas deal of the century. This might in time be seen as the beginning of the end of the petrodollar and the US deficit politics.

                            Just as the US helped the Russian people dump its communist regime in 1989, will Russia help the American people dump the Federal Reserve?

                            Commenter
                            Dr No
                            Location
                            Sydney
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 10:52AM
                            • Some good points Dr No.

                              If the massive China Russia deal is in dollars I'll eat my hat. The dollar will be facing a wake up call very soon.

                              I think the eds disagreed with me last time I raised Belgium, but I still believe it is indeed the fed or someone acting on its behalf. Given all they've said publicly, this would essentially be fraud.

                              Commenter
                              Fred
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 11:16AM
                            • Going to be interesting! The technicals look very bearish (for stocks) to me....

                              Glad someone else is paying attention tho (RE: ForEx/Russia-China etc.)

                              Commenter
                              Bye Bye Fiat Money
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 11:19AM
                            • Meanwhile Chinese General Fang Fenghui, chief of the general staff of China, went to Washington to meet with VP Joe Biden about the Chinese clashes with Vietnam. Fang basically told Biden to keep out of it, and the US has no choice whatsoever. If the US was to respond then China would happily dump US treasury notes the next day and the US would go bankrupt.

                              Putin and Xi Jinping has got Obama by the balls, and next week Tuesday they will start to squeeze his blueberries ever harder.

                              Commenter
                              Dr No
                              Location
                              Sydney
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 12:04PM
                            • @Dr No, then the US as China's biggest customer stops buying from China and persuades its Western allies to do the same. Result - hundreds of millions of unemployed Chinese roaming the streets looking for something to do, a gov't to overthrow for example. You miss the whole point of debt economics. If a debtor goes broke, who has more to lose, the debtor who already has your money or you.

                              Commenter
                              mitch of ACT
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 1:29PM
                            • @Mitch - The US is already trying such a tactic with Russia, and it's not working out that well for them. The US is trying to persuade Europe to boycott Russia over the Crimea takeover, but the Europeans are having none of it. The Germans are even telling the US to get lost! A majority of the German public thinks that Russia did the right thing. And nothing scares European leaders as much as their own voters at the moment.

                              Sure the US can try to bring on a revolution in Russia and China, but the problem for the bloated out-of-touch politicians in Washington, London and Paris is this: Russia and China can just as easily bring about a revolution in Washington! Next week's European elections in the EU will be a taster of what's to come...

                              Commenter
                              Dr No
                              Location
                              Sydney
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 1:46PM
                          • Even in the home of big oil and fracking, good ol' Texas, they've realised solar is the future:

                            http://www.kgns.tv/home/headlines/Deal-sets-plan-for-Texas-largest-single-solar-facility-259440211.html

                            Commenter
                            Fred
                            Date and time
                            May 16, 2014, 10:46AM
                            • Richard,

                              Your point on renewable energy is far too logical.

                              Renewables are being taken up at an exponential rate around the globe, while in Australia we've hit the brakes.

                              Sorry, but nobody wants our coal anymore. Heck, even IKEA has just announced it's going to become independent of the grid through its own solar.

                              But even if we entirely ignore the exponential growth in solar and other renewables, there is STILL no future for our coal.
                              Someone commented on here the other day, saying "but, but, India will buy our coal". Well, sorry, but with the little tiff between Russia and Europe, the Ruskis have decided they'll sell massive amounts of discounted gas to the Indians and Chinese instead, making our coal even more uneconomical.

                              Face it, coal is dead.

                              Commenter
                              Fred
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 10:42AM
                              • Yo Fred...how are you going to make steel?

                                Commenter
                                happy Hippy
                                Date and time
                                May 16, 2014, 11:48AM
                            • I smell a double dissolution on the way. With Labor saying they'll block most of the budget, Palmer saying likewise, I assume the Greens would, looks like Abbott's lies have screwed him!

                              I'm starting to like Big Clive more and more. The more Murdoch goes after him, the more Palmer gives him the finger!

                              Commenter
                              Fred
                              Date and time
                              May 16, 2014, 10:30AM
                              • even after 2 days of US sell off, our market just doesn't want to have a down day. that's confidence for u.

                                Commenter
                                j
                                Location
                                syd
                                Date and time
                                May 16, 2014, 10:27AM
                                • and the financials are trading ex div which makes it even harder to understand...so drop for petes sake!!!
                                  bulls still on top, no doubting it.

                                  Commenter
                                  no banks .. no party!
                                  Location
                                  weird asx, im over it
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:50AM
                              • My predictive chart, that extrapolates the movements of the last 4 years onto the chart for the present year, shows a steady decline from now on towards 30th June with the AllOrds likely to be between 5040 & 5100. I have been gradually reducing holdings in anticipation. I will be using the freed-up cash to buy those paying dividends & distributions in June & July as their prices decline (I hope). Give me dividends over capital gains any day. Dividends can be bought for, capital gains can just as easily turn into losses. The market leading up to this has looked horribly overbought based on an expected decline in economic activity from the Budget and a slowing China.

                                Commenter
                                mitch of ACT
                                Date and time
                                May 16, 2014, 10:27AM
                                • And yet buying into the banks pre ex-divi day would have cost you money. NAB circa 83c divi and a loss of $2 on your capital. Doesn't make sense to me!

                                  Commenter
                                  Joe the POM
                                  Location
                                  Geelong
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:49AM
                                • @Joe, I was selling banks, not buying them. I think the banks have peaked for now. ANZ, NAB & WBC boosted their bottom line by reducing their provisions for B&DD. Artificial profits. Rising unemployment and reducing incomes from drops in gov't benefits and just a declining economy will create debt problems for the banks. After the last mad housing boom and record prices & mortgages there are echoes of '92 when bad property debts almost turned the Big 4 into the not-so-big 3.

                                  Commenter
                                  mitch of ACT
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 11:24AM
                                • joe: it's only a loss when you realize it. You could just sit on it for another 6 months and enjoy a second dividend and capital gains (possibly)

                                  Commenter
                                  DR
                                  Location
                                  syd
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 11:28AM
                                • Mitch's crystal ball. LOL.

                                  Commenter
                                  Titch of ACM
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 12:32PM
                                • Selling banks not buying them.

                                  Is that what you said, and what I replied to?

                                  I believe the thrust of your post was, you were accumulating dividends because real cash in the hand is better than 'potential' capital gains.

                                  So which is it, and was I wrong?

                                  Commenter
                                  Joe the POM
                                  Location
                                  Geelong
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 1:38PM
                                • @Titch and at least until 30th June my crystal ball cannot be proved to be wrong..

                                  Commenter
                                  mitch of ACT
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 1:43PM
                                • So what then? Trading up?

                                  Commenter
                                  Titch of ACM
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 3:05PM
                              • Dangerous times ahead for the country, the electorate, the markets and investors. The ALP’s stated intent to block aspects of the Budget is the latest instalment of each major Party’s apparent refusal to allow the other to govern when in power, regardless of the fact that they have been duly elected by the people. The Coalition grabbed every opportunity to undermine the Rudd/Gillard Governments to the extent that they spent more time defending what they wanted to do than actually being able to do it. The minority government allowed Abbott and Co. to do that. Now the anti-LNP Senate will allow the Opposition to do the same. This tit-for-tat politics will not go away anytime soon as the electorate is basically split along party philosophical lines with a small percentage of swinging voters deciding election outcomes. As a result, while the politicians play their games, the economy is likely to stagnate at best and the markets retreat. Markets hate nothing more than uncertainty, and the prevailing political climate is fertile ground for uncertainty. Elected Governments should be allowed to govern and then stand or fall by their record come election time. Oppositions should stay in the background, rather than demand and be given equal billing with the Government. As an investor and a constituent I want decisiveness and certainty from whichever Party is in power. I may not like the policies but at least I can plan and invest (or not) with certainty and the country can move forward. At the moment we seem to be stuck in a damaging twilight zone.

                                Commenter
                                Grinch
                                Date and time
                                May 16, 2014, 10:09AM
                                • Your analysis has merit. A couple of things. This process of political 'tit-for-tat' will go on for as long as the electorate tolerate it. Then we will see more demonstrations and people taking to social media to effect action and change. If you want more stability and certainty then why not invest in countries where you can find this e.g. vote with your investment feet and take your money overseas.

                                  Commenter
                                  Viking
                                  Location
                                  Sydney
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:17AM
                                • @Grinch I agree with your appraisal of the situation. When politicians learn to tell the truth and get elected without deceiving the electorate, the certainty that the market yearns for will come to pass. In the meantime half-term Tony is going to reap what he sowed. The rest of us will have to put up with the weeds and barren ground.

                                  Commenter
                                  mitch of ACT
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:23AM
                                • Hear, Hear!

                                  The problem is that Abbott showed that mindless negativity will be rewarded by the electorate. He has written the playbook and shown that it works. Why would anyone not follow it?

                                  I find it particularly galling that after blocking the Malaysia solution Abbott now claims credit for stopping the boats.

                                  The problem of uncertainty is particularly obvious in the renewable energy sphere. Banks demand absurd rates on borrowing for these projects because it is impossible to know what the regulatory environment will be like in 5 years time when they are up and running.

                                  Commenter
                                  Richard
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:23AM
                                • The country is probably heading to a recession because of the decline in iron ore prices might be steeper than many expected because of a slowing and rebalancing China (classic boom-bust - not clever to put all your eggs in one basket) combined with continuing cutbacks of government spending that will hit aggregate demand. Add to that the spiralling costs bearing down on services and infrastructure because of a a decade of ballooning population, and a dysfunctional property market hurting housing construction, because of a combination of government encouraged housing inflation (NG, capital gains advantages, foreign investment and urban growth boundaries) and you have the makings of a perfect storm. But the seeds of this go right back to the policies of Howard, which were then essentially continued under Rudd/Gillard.

                                  Commenter
                                  Jim
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:26AM
                                • The markets do not respond to the government of the day unless it is for specific legislation - eg gambling laws. If you are worried about politicians then you are missing the point. A politician has a different motivation than an investor. The politician will do anything to get elected and then once in power they pay off their benefactors. From then on they will do anything to stay in power. If you get upset about politicians breaking "promises" just remember they never intended to keep them. It is just white noise for them...

                                  Commenter
                                  Les
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:31AM
                                • I look at this as a plus.. Phoney Tony has finally outed himself and galvanised an opposition, who lets face it were having their own problems internally.. now we see a bit of vision, and a leader who has the backing of the party, greens and PUP to block supply and we have the election we should have had last year

                                  Commenter
                                  Lean Too
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:40AM
                                • Mitch, Tony would cop exactly what he deserves if only the alternative was any better. Unfortunately if you opened your other eye you would see that they are all tarred with the same brush. Your defence of Gillard's dishonesty is laughable. You taking your Mum to the pokies tonight?

                                  Commenter
                                  Tim
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:48AM
                                • Why so serious? If you look at a chart of our budget deficits against the elected government, you will see that much like a toilet float mechanism labor flushes the money away to create deficits and then the liberals are elected to fill the cistern back up. We are currently in the fill up phase... relax.

                                  Commenter
                                  FANATICAL
                                  Location
                                  Titanfall
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:50AM
                                • I should have mentioned also how the housing bubble has loaded up the people with debt to their eyeballs and the high price of land - which is an input cost to everything - has hurt all other forms of productivity and drained capital away from productive investment. Again, the seeds were planted by the Howard regime and continued under Rudd/Gillard and Tony wants to make middle and lower income Australians pay for this long term bubble economics economic vandalism through savage cutbacks to health and education.

                                  Commenter
                                  Jim
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:57AM
                                • Poor Labor voters. All in a lather because somebody wants to balance the budget. "Bring back the spendathon" they chorus.

                                  Commenter
                                  Fiscal Rectitude
                                  Location
                                  Canberra
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 11:46AM
                                • Parliamentary obstruction will be nothing compared with the chaos which will result from all those elderly protesters who abused Julia Gillard inside and outside the parliament when they return to protest the scale of Abbott's betrayals. Alan Jones will have to call on the police to halt the convoys at Campbelltown and Albury.

                                  Commenter
                                  Flatulus
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 12:30PM
                                • Grinch,

                                  All parties are entitled to oppose measures in parliament that they are philosophically opposed to, get over it.

                                  The economy has stagnated due to a lack of agressiveness from the coalition to roll back ridiculously pro union workplace relations policies, lack of moves to curtail the influence of pro union appointees to the workplace regulator (which the ALP shamelessly stacked in it's last term), and the delays in rolling back the carbon tax.

                                  Once this is taken care of the government will have a chance to influence the economy. At the moment we still effectively have most of the settings of the former ALP Govt and the economic consequences that go along with them.

                                  Commenter
                                  A Bodhi Nuisance
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 12:33PM
                                • @Fiscal Rectitude
                                  If there really is a budget emergency why abolish the mining tax? Now that the large mining companies have used up most of their tax credits for already constructed mines it finally might raise some money and we are getting rid of it right when we have a "budget emergency"?

                                  Commenter
                                  Steve
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 12:39PM
                                • I disagree completely, Grinch. I (and I suspect many other Australians) deliberately vote minor parties into the senate specifically to act as a check on the government of the day - because we don't trust them. Because we know they'll say anything to get into power then about-face as it suits them - exactly as Tony has done. So I say, "no he doesn't have a mandate to do whatever he wants", and "yes to the senate - please try to keep 'em honest"... as the Democrats used to do. And if that causes short term uncertainly, so be it. It would be a small price to pay for more honest politics, were such a thing possible. Sadly we get the government we deserve because we reward negativity and lies at the polling booth. Ultimately we're collectively responsible - not the politicians - because democracy works: if we rewarded honest, positive politics at election day, that's what we'd get.

                                  Commenter
                                  Walter
                                  Location
                                  Sydney
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 1:14PM
                                • No doubt parties are entitled to oppose measures that philosophically opposed to. But how do you explain Tony's opposition to the Malaysia solution? Clearly it was not against their philosophy. At the time it was said the reason was that they were not a signatory to the refugee convention.

                                  But since his election Tony has sent refugees to Indonesia, PNG and is looking to sign a deal with Cambodia. None of these countries are signatories. Call me cynical but the reason I believe he opposed it was because he was afraid it would be successful and deprive him of one of the conservative movements favorite political weapons. Xenophobia. Absolutely appalling politicking completely against the national interest.

                                  Commenter
                                  Richard
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 1:26PM
                              • CBA. Short.

                                Commenter
                                Gordon Gekko
                                Location
                                Greg Coffey World
                                Date and time
                                May 16, 2014, 10:01AM
                                • would be crazy to buy CBA at this price. Who's buying ? LOL

                                  Commenter
                                  got brain
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 10:15AM
                                • @Tim, no that cruel LNP gov't now wants to charge her $7 each time she goes to the doctor or for any medical procedure and more for medicines, then she's losing $876.20 pa from the removal of the Seniors supplement. So she's decided to save some money but is still making a donation to that nice Mr Palmer so he can unseat half-term Tony.

                                  Commenter
                                  mitch of ACT
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 12:01PM
                                • Er Mitch, looks like to have your blogs mixed up. Time for the nap.

                                  Commenter
                                  Titch of ACM
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 12:33PM
                              • Wilmar has set a deadline to the board of Goodman Fielder, either accept today or we will walk away. The biggest investors in GF will accept and GF will be ready for a real clean out which in all likelihood will see the MD Chris Delaney leave. Mr Delaney has not managed to turn the business around, now it will be foreign owned.

                                Commenter
                                Viking
                                Location
                                Sydney
                                Date and time
                                May 16, 2014, 9:31AM
                                • Paladin ... Today ?

                                  Commenter
                                  Joe the POM
                                  Location
                                  Geelong
                                  Date and time
                                  May 16, 2014, 9:18AM
                                  • ... seems like not much excitement with the update !! :(

                                    Commenter
                                    clueless
                                    Location
                                    wonderland
                                    Date and time
                                    May 16, 2014, 10:20AM
                                  • Still making losses and cash in decline. Sold out ... Had enough. On to other prospects. Thinking SXY !!

                                    Commenter
                                    Joe the POM
                                    Location
                                    Geelong
                                    Date and time
                                    May 16, 2014, 10:46AM
                                Comments are now closed