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Markets Live: Investors await earnings

Date

The market has closed flat, as investors wait for overseas leads and a flood of earnings reports due tomorrow.

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That's it from us here at blog central for today. Thanks everyone for reading and posting your comments. Tomorrow will be a big day for earnings.

Here's our evening wrap of today's session.

Moody's says downside risks for the global economy have receded in the past three months, though a number of dangers still remain.

In its latest Global Macro Risk Scenarios report, the ratings agency also said it expected economic growth to be slow in many countries.

"While our central forecasts are little changed, the downside risks have definitely abated over the past three months," said Colin Ellis, Moody's senior vice-president for macro financial analysis.

"However, we still expect a subdued global recovery with sub-trend growth in most advanced economies over the near term, alongside a relatively soft pace of expansion in emerging markets as well."

The ratings agency expects real growth for the G20 of around 2.9 per cent in 2013, followed by 3.3 percent in 2014.

Here's what you need to know this PM:

Markets

  • The ASX200 ends flat; All Ords briefly topped 5000
  • The Nikkei is rallying 2.3%, the Kospi is down 0.15%
  • The dollar is buying $US1.0259, 96.35 yen and 76.67 euro cents
  • Spot gold is slightly lower at $US1646.91, while WTI crude is at $US96.86
  • Wall Street futures are down 0.2%; FTSE100 futures down 0.2%

News

Overnight

  • French current account December; exp: -3.5b euros

Tomorrow

Economy

  • ABS Lending finance for December
  • Westpac/Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment

Earnings

  • Ansell: $62.96 million
  • Boral: $65.75 million
  • Commonwealth Bank (cash profit): $3.67 billion
  • Computershare: $117.90 million
  • Carsales.com: $39.60 million
  • CSL: $583.9 million
  • Domino's Pizza: $14.87 million
  • Leighton Holdings: $385 million
  • Oz Minerals: $41.67 million
  • Stockland: $238.53 million
  • WorleyParsons: $247.05 million

All companies are reporting first-half results, except for Oz Minerals, which is posting second-half (and full-year) earnings. The figures are consensus estimates for net profit (except for CBA), compiled by S&P Capital IQ.

Here's how some of the blue chips performed today:

  • BHP: -0.3%
  • Rio: -0.6%
  • ANZ: -0.75%
  • CBA: +0.6%
  • NAB: -0.55%
  • Westpac: -0.75%
  • Woolies: +1%
  • Wesfarmers: flat
  • Telstra: +0.2%

Commonwealth Bank is expected to post another bumper profit for the first half of the financial year, and shareholders are set to be the big winners.

Analysts expect Australia’s largest home lender to post a cash profit of about $3.7 billion for the six months to December 31 when it reports to the market tomorrow morning.

Aside from the profit numbers, investors will be interested in how the bank’s customers are faring on loan repayments, and whether CBA’s margins on interest rates have improved after reducing rates by less than the central bank.

Some analysts are also expecting the major banks to increase their returns to their shareholders in the near future, as profits rise but demand for loans remains subdued.

‘‘We are increasingly confident in our major bank earnings and dividend forecasts for fiscal 2013, with economic conditions in Australia holding relatively steady despite well publicised headwinds and uncertainty,’’ Morningstar analyst David Ellis said in a report on the industry. ‘‘Strong profitability and capital cushions at Australian major banks support a sustainable stream of fully franked dividends.’’

CBA’s dividends have been on a steady rise since 2009, and it aims to pay out up to 80 per cent of its cash profit to shareholders.

Investors are hoping CBA will lift its dividend.

Investors are hoping CBA will lift its dividend. Photo: Quentin Jones

Among the sectors, materials pulled the market down, losing 0.5 per cent, while energy fell 0.4 per cent and financials slipped 0.1 per cent. Buoying the market, consumer staples rose 0.4 per cent, industrials gained 1.4 per cent and telcos added 0.2 per cent.

The market has closed flat, as investors wait for overseas leads and a flood of earnings reports due tomorrow. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index slipped half a point to 4959.0, while the broader All Ords inched up 1.2 points to 4981.5, after early in the session briefly topping 5000 points.

The Australian dollar resumed its climb against a soggy yen today after a US government official voiced support for Japan's efforts to end stubborn deflation, even while cautioning against deliberate devaluations.

The Aussie, however, drifted to three-month lows on the US dollar and lost ground to the euro, last buying $US1.0248 and 76.5 euro cents.

The dollar surged as far as 96.87 yen in sight of the four-and-a-half year peak of 97.42 set last Tuesday.

It last fetched 96.57 yen, having jumped nearly two yen in 24 hours after US Treasury official Lael Brainard said the United States supported Japanese efforts to end deflation and re-invigorate growth.

Traders took the remark as lessening the risk the US, or other G7 countries, complaining about the falling yen at G20 meeting later this week.

Still, Matthew Johnson, a rate strategist at UBS, believes the Aussie will struggle to hold at these high levels against the yen.

"An Aussie/yen above 95 yen encourages Japanese funds to sell Australian assets and book a nice profit."

Tony Featherstone's blog - The Venture - is thought-provoking stuff today: Come 2025 we could all be teleworking from home, or FIFO-ing to Asia.

Whatever happens, smarter policies are needed to help workers adapt to powerful trends, he writes:

"We need more debate on what the workforce will look like by 2025 and some genuine policy to help get us there. We’ll be there before you know it, and by then it will be too late if Australia continues to talk rather than act on these big workforce trends."

The market has managed to hang onto its positive bias today despite earlier strength which took the All Ords above 5000 in quiet trading conditions, says CMC Markets trader Ben Taylor:

  • The market seems to be bouncing off high resistance points at these levels. To break through from here we need to see sights of clear earnings momentum.
  • Tomorrow's highly anticipated CBA result has the market taking bets on the bank providing a higher dividend amount. The bank touched $65.74 today before drifting back on profit taking.

Australian government bonds will be the only major developed sovereign market to provide capital gains to investors this year as the RBA cuts interest rates, analysts predict.

Benchmark 10-year notes in Australia will rise, pushing yields down from 3.48 per cent today to 3.22 per cent by June 30 before they rebound to 3.43 per cent at year-end, according to the weighted average forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Societe Generale named Australian bonds among their top 10 assets over the next three years as they offer the highest yields for notes with AAA ratings from the three main credit assessors. Economists predict the Reserve Bank will cut borrowing costs to a record as a resources boom fades.

Yields elsewhere will rise as accelerating global growth and diminishing concern about Europe’s debt crisis spurs investors to seek greater returns in riskier assets such as equities.

‘‘In Australia, the economy is likely to remain quite soft over the next few years as the mining investment surge comes to an end,’’ says ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan. ‘‘The theme for Aussie bonds is that they should outperform core sovereign markets.’’

Amcom Telecommunications has reported half-year net profit of $10 million, a 20 per cent increase from the previous corresponding period on the back of strong demand for data network access from business and government.

It is the 10th year of 20 per cent profit growth for the Perth-based provider of data network access, cloud solutions and managed services. The company is capitalising on the growing data demand from the corporate and government sectors.

‘‘The key driver there is date growth,’’ said Amcom’s chief executive Stein Clive, ‘‘ most large businesses are highly dependent on date networks, connecting to the internet and other offices to drive their information technology across these networks.’’

Amcom shares are up 0.7 per cent.

Dolce & Gabbana has become the latest international luxury brand to hit Australian shores, with the Italian fashion house set to open its flagship outlet on the Paris end of Collins Street in Melbourne.

The label, which has been fronted by likes of Scarlett Johansson and Monica Bellucci, is expected to open its doors by the middle of the year in a new high-end retail and food precinct at 171 Collins Street.

D&G will occupy 320 square metres of space at the front and first floor of the heritage-listed Mayfair Building, which is located a few doors up from the Regent Theatre and Westin hotel.

We had NAB's business confidence earlier today, which showed the mood in companies is lifting, albeit slightly. Now Roy Morgan has released the findings of its survey, which reveal a much bigger jump in confidence.

Business confidence in Australia in January increased to 122.5, up 7.7 points from 114.8 in December 2012 and is now at the highest level since April 2011, Roy Morgan says.

This jump is due largely to the fact that more businesses now consider that economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months will improve, according to Roy Morgan's ‘Business Confidence’ survey of over 2700 businesses in January.

"Although most industries showed improved confidence in January, it was mining that increased the most and so returning it to the position as the most confident industry," Roy Morgan says.

With business confidence improving, the majority now consider that the next 12 months will be a good time to invest in their business (57%). This is the highest level since December 2011.

One market doing exceptionally well today is Japan, where the Nikkei 225 is rallying more than 2 per cent as the yen traded near the weakest in almost three years after a contender to become the next Bank of Japan governor signalled support for more monetary easing.

‘‘Investors are raising their hopes about what the BOJ will do from here because it has yet to start bold monetary easing,’’ says Koichi Kurose, chief economist in Tokyo at Resona Bank. ‘‘I think the Nikkei will climb to 12,000 in March or April.’’

Use of plastic cards (credit or debit cards) for purchases has trebled over the past decade to 444 million - but the average purchase on a plastic card hit a record low of $87.13 in December, RBA data shows.

In smoothed terms (annual average) there was no growth in credit card debt in December – the lowest result on record. In the year to November credit card debt had lifted by 0.3 per cent.

While debit card use continues to outpace credit cards, overall, Aussie consumers believe it’s a case of ‘plastic fantastic’, COmmSec chief economist Craig James says:

A record 444 million purchases were made with credit or debit cards in December, up 11 per cent on a year ago. And in line with the more widespread use of cards, the average transaction size continues to fall, hitting a record low of $87.13 in December.

So, Melbourne songwriter Gotye will be lugging three Grammy’s back to Australia, and with them comes a bill from the airline for excess baggage. But he’s made squillions from that song which is playing everywhere all the time, so it’s not a problem for him, right?

Maybe not. BRW has done a back-of-the-envelope sketch on how much he’s likely to have pocketed from selling more than 13 million copies of the song and sharing it 374 million viewers on YouTube, and it’s not as much as you might think. Turns out being a mega-selling popstar, the darling of the music world, isn't as lucrative as you might think. Read it here. And click on the song below if you think he's been hard done by. It'll earn him a fraction of cent.

As we hit the mid-point of the session, Aussie stocks are back to a breaking even despite a promising start.

The All Ords touched 5000 before losing the gain and now sits at 4983.5, while the ASX200 reached a peak of 4981 but has since slipped to 4970, roughly where it started the day.

Japan's Nikkei has jumped 2.6 per cent, boosted by exporters as the yen weakened after a US Treasury official voiced support for Japan's aggressive policies to combat deflation and bolster growth. The gain comes after Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

With finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations scheduled to meet this week, investors betting on a weaker yen were relieved after US Treasury Undersecretary Lael Brainard said the United States supports Japanese efforts to end deflation and reinvigorate growth.

"Her comments gave confidence to the market. It was surprising, and was taken as the Obama administration giving a green light to 'Abenomics'," said Takuya Takahashi, a market analyst at Daiwa Securities.

Head of ForexCT Stephen Dooley says the week-long dive in the Aussie is thanks to the RBA's dovish statement on the rates outlook last week.

‘‘We’ve fallen from 104.80 US cents to 102.50 cents, a fall of more than 200 points, and it all stems from last week’s RBA statement,’’ he said.

‘‘They hinted they might cut rates a little more and that’s seen the Australian dollar move pretty sharply lower over the last week and a half.’’

Mr Dooley said he expected the Australian dollar to drop further over the next week, to 101.70 US cents against the greenback.

‘‘The Australian dollar has been trading in a range - every time it comes down to 101.70 US cents it’s a big buying opportunity, and every time it goes up to 106 US cents it’s seen as a selling opportunity, and that’s a pattern we’ve been in since July,’’ he said.

As the dollar headed downwards, Mr Dooley said there was a possibility it would return to parity with the US dollar later this year.

Another insight into the NAB numbers:

UBS economists George Tharanou and Scott Haslem have taken a look at the NAB business confidence numbers and wonder if they contain signs of a turning point in the economy. In a note to clients, they write:

On the positive side, business conditions improved in January from a 3½- year low – a good outcome given still weak PMIs. Business confidence – which tends to lead conditions – also held onto its sharp rebound in December. This may provide an early signal of a ‘turning point’ in the domestic economy, consistent with our view the RBA will hold rates.

However, inflation pressure moderated even further & labour market indicators remain soft, implying very low CPI ahead, giving the RBA room to ease further if unemployment rises more than expected.

IG Markets market strategist Evan Lucas said Commonwealth Bank had since fallen back from its gain of about 0.8 per cent ahead of its first half profit announcement on Wednesday.

‘‘The main reasons that we’ve seen that momentum lost is probably looking at CBA,’’ Mr Lucas said.

‘‘They did, obviously, open up really, really strongly this morning as they rally into their result tomorrow. They jumped up ... to an all-time high, and they’ve now dropped back almost to even.’’

CBA shares were up 20 cents, or 0.3 per cent, at $65.32.

A comment on the NAB business data:

The market has lost some of its early strength as miners fall into the red.

"Investors are pretty much focused on local events and we have seen good profit results so far this week, (and) there's a lot of hope that what we see from the other big names later this week will also be quite strong," says Juliette Saly, stock market analyst at Commonwealth Securities.

CBA shares seemes unstoppable this morning, rising as much as 1 per cent, which took the bank's market cap above $105 billion. Shares have since come back a bit and now are up just 0.1 per cent, which is coinciding with the rest of the market losing its momentum.

‘‘They did, obviously, open up really, really strongly this morning as they rally into their result tomorrow," says IG Markets market strategist Evan Lucas.

Here's a graph of the NAB business conditions index over the past three years, showing the downward trend hasn't really been broken yet:

In other data out today, the Reserve Bank’s credit card balances report for December found that the total balance rose to $49.9 billion from $49.5 billion in the month before.

The average credit card balance edged up slightly from $3262 in November to $3282 in December.

The dollar wasn't impressed by the business confidence numbers and is hovering near the day's lows at $US1.0260.

Business conditions have improved in January but remain soft, with signs the weaknesses in some sectors is spreading to others, a National Australia Bank monthly survey finds.

Business conditions improved to minus 2, up from minus 5 in December, as profitability and trading conditions registered gains while employment conditions ‘‘weakened considerably’’, NAB found. The confidence index for January rose to 3 from a revised 2 in the month prior.

Forward orders remained at low levels, ‘‘suggesting little upward momentum’’, while companies’ productive capacity utilisation were at their lowest levels since 2001.

Business credit demand was also at near record lows, the survey found.

The ‘‘recovery mainly reflects external factors, including the rally in global equity markets and generally better activity in China, as well as recent RBA cuts,’’ NAB chief economist Alan Oster said in the report. ‘‘However, confidence remains below long-run average levels.’’

Now for the sliders on the ASX200. Four of the bottom five are gold companies:

  • Alacer Gold Corp: -7.63%
  • Troy Resources: -4.55%
  • Evolution Mining: -4.46%
  • Gryphon Minerals: -4.44%
  • Tabcorp: -4.01%

Just to reiterate, here's a note from CMC Markets on the subject of gold. Ric Spooner said:

In the shorter term though, many traders fear that short term strength in the US Dollar could see gold retreat towards the technical support of its 2011 and 2012 lows around $US1535. These concerns were fuelled when the precious metal declined below the much-watched 200 day moving average last night.

Bradken is leading the market in morning trade, up 10 per cent after the industrial equipment maker increased its first half profit by 9 per cent and said it was confident of conditions improving during the next six months. Here are the other major gainers on the ASX200 in early trade:

  • Acrux: +7.61%
  • Whitehaven: +7.09%
  • NRW: +5.69%
  • Boart Longyear: +5.42%
  • Ausdrill: +4.53%
  • Goodman Fielder: +2.84%

A positive profit report from retailer JB Hi-Fi on Monday has prompted some investors to return to the share market, Baillieu Holst director Richard Morrow says.

‘‘There’s still quite an imbalance out there in investor land, with people holding too much cash and not enough shares,’’ Mr Morrow said.

‘‘Some of the results out yesterday, especially JB Hi-Fi and the rally in the consumer sector, I think caused a few investors to panic to cover short positions and to rebuild weightings to the sharemarket.’’

To celebrate the All Ords turning 5000 - again - here's a chart showing its performance over the last 5 years. The big peak on the left is the moment in May 2008 before the GFC struck, when it hit 6035:

Sector by sector on the ASX200 now, here are the early winners and losers:

  • Info tech: +1.17%
  • Industrials: +0.97%
  • Telecoms: +0.53%
  • Financials: +0.4%
  • Energy: -0.28%
  • Materials: -0.22%
  • Health: -0.08%

Although the All Ords has passed through 5000, the benchmark ASX200 is still about half a per cent away, currently trading at 4977.2. It could be that some good numbers from one of the sharemarket titans like Commonwealth Bank or Rio, which report earning later this week, are enough to push the ASX200 over the 5000 mark.

In the meantime, the retailers are basking in the afterglow of the JB Hi-Fi result from yesterday. Clearly there is some expectation that other in the retail space might have some good news in store, so to speak:

  • Woolies: +0.18%
  • Wesfarmers: -0.05%
  • Harvey Norman: +1.29%
  • DJs: +1.11%
  • Myer: +0.37%

As financial planners and others say, past performance is no guide to future performance, but the last time the All Ords has a look above 5000 it didn't like the view. It stayed there momentarily before spending the next five months on the slide.

What do you think? Will this time be different?

The All Ords last topped 5000 on 12 April, 2011, before it slipped to 3927 on 9 September. It's been a slow but steady build since then, culminating in this morning's milestone.

The All Ords has pushed through 5000. Hooray! It's peaked this morning at 5002.2 before slipping back to 4998.8.

Consultant engineer Coffey International continued to find support in early trading, rallying another 1.5c to 40c following the release of mixed results on Monday, which showed continued evidence of a slow turnaround.

In a note to clients this morning, UBS has a 'buy' recommendation on the shares and a price target of 47c.

"With the ‘hopeful’ end of restructuring charges and a capital structure well and truly derisked,  Geosciences volatility remains the focus for investors," it told clients.

"With the stock trading on 8 times price earnings multiple in FY13/14 we would view risks around mining and infrastructure fees as largely priced in, while catalysts are few, the group moving to paying out a dividend again is a clear positive and we maintain our 'buy' recommendation."

It is tipping a 1c a share payout in the full year.

The company said in a newsletter to shareholders, released today, it is aware of the importance shareholders place on dividends, and it will review its policy at the time of its full year results.

A bit more on Bradken.

Managing director Brian Hodges said the business had stabilised and he was confident that conditions would improve in the second half of 2012/13.

‘‘The company’s order books have stabilised and there is evidence to suggest that we have reached the bottom of the current cycle,’’ Mr Hodges said.

Mr Hodges said the installation and commissioning of plant and equipment for the first stage of its low-cost Xuzhou Foundry in China had now been finished. When completed, the foundry was expected to produced 20,000 tonnes per annum of iron.

‘‘With rail margin improvements and the low-cost Xuzhou foundry coming on line, we expect to company’s margins to remain strongly defensible and may improve in the period,’’ he said.

Full story.

A bit more here on Whitehaven.

Days after saying a decision on environmental approval had been delayed to April 30, federal Environment Minister Tony Burke last night granted conditional approval for the Maules Creek and nearby Boggabri mine proposals in northwest NSW.

The approvals remain subject to strict conditions requiring wildlife corridors, limits on the clearance of native vegetation and a $2.5 million investment in rehabilitation research for threatened species.

Read the full story here.

JB Hi-Fi shares have given back a bit of yesterday’s 17 per cent gain. They’re down 2.4 per cent in early trade, or 31 cents, to $12.58.

Whitehaven shares have jumped 8.1 per cent following the approval of the Maules Creek project by the federal environment department. Its have added 24 cents to $3.20.

BREAKING The RBA is selling its 50 per cent stake in scandal-plagued Securency. More soon, but here are a few lines from the press release:

The sale of the Bank's interest in Securency is in accordance with the Bank's long-standing intention to exit from the joint venture once Securency had established itself as a viable long-term supplier in the international market for banknote substrate.

Under the terms of the sale, the Bank will receive initial payments of approximately $65 million for its shares, which exceeds the value of the Bank's investment in Securency in the Bank's 2011/12 financial accounts of $54 million. Additional payments may be made to the Bank over following years, including if Securency exceeds certain earnings benchmarks.

In early trade, the All Ordinaries index is 14.8 points higher, or 0.3 per cent, to 4995.1, while the benchmark S&P/ASX200 is 14.7 points higher, or 0.3 per cent, to 4974.2.

Early take - stocks have edged higher in opening trade. Up about 0.1 per cent.

CMC Markets say gold companies could feature today, with gold traders and investors ‘‘unsettled by the size of gold’s fall on a quiet news session in international markets’’.

Chief markets analyst Ric Spooner says ‘‘gold is likely to benefit from ongoing central bank demand, improving jewellery sales, and investor concerns that international monetary stimulus will ultimately lead to inflation and ongoing currency debasement".

"In the shorter term though, many traders fear that short term strength in the US Dollar could see gold retreat towards the technical support of its 2011 and 2012 lows around $US 1535. These concerns were fuelled when the precious metal declined below the much-watched 200 day moving average last night."

CommSec markets analyst Juliana Roadley said although the futures were pointing to a slight gain for Australian stocks today, there were reflecting "a bit of positioning" rather than expectations the market would rally much higher.

"I think if anything, you’ve got weak commodity prices, you’ve also got weakness in the overseas markets and uncertainty in the euro market," Ms Roadley said.

"It’s ahead of the State of the Union speech as well as key economic data coming out from the US. So we are expecting a quiet day of trade."

Ms Roadley said a series of earning reports from key companies would set the tone of the share market for the rest of the week.

Some analyst rating changes for today:

  • JB Hi-Fi raised to neutral at JPMorgan
  • JB Hi-Fi cut to underperform at Credit Suisse
  • Chorus raised to neutral at Macquarie
  • Fletcher Building downgraded to neutral at Goldman Sachs

Australian bond futures prices have followed US Treasuries weaker on a quiet night for US markets with no economic news to drive prices.

At 8.30am, the March 10-year bond futures contract was trading at 96.565 (implying a yield of 3.435 per cent), down from 96.580 (3.420 per cent) on Monday.

The March three-year bond futures contract was at 97.210 (2.790 per cent), down from 97.230 (2.770 per cent).

St George chief economist Hans Kunnen said US equity markets traded in low volumes after their rally in recent weeks.

‘‘There was no new economic news and European markets were equally lacklustre,’’ he said.‘‘With equities flat, bonds remained in a very tight range overnight.’’

Looking at the ASX today, a bit of weakness offshore and a sagging Aussie dollar are not enough to keep the futures market down. The SPI futures contract is 17 points higher to 4936. A gain of 17 points won’t get the ASX200 over the 5000-point mark, but it will get it close.

Arab Bank’s David Scutt says today’s NAB business survey could have an impact on market sentiment. In a note this morning, he writes:

While it barely impacts market pricing ordinarily, we expect the monthly NAB business survey will be somewhat influential today, especially given the focus on earnings and domestic rate outlook at present, with investors likely to piece over the report for signs, if any, of an improvement in business sentiment.

While the market has been rallying of late on expectations for easier monetary policy from the RBA, something that may well occur again should the data disappoint, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market celebrate a strong read, particularly if profitability has improved, given it would likely correspond with a lift in corporate earnings.

The first of today's earnings results is through and it's from Bradken, a manufacturer of mining, rail and engineering products.

Bradken has reported a net profit of $46.7 million, a rise of 9 per cent from the same period the year before. The company said it would pay an interim dividend of 20 cents, fully franked, on March 14.

More soon.

For a comprehensive look at this morning’s business news, check today’s need2know. Here are this morning’s key markets numbers:

  • SPI futures are 17 points higher at 4936
  • The $A is lower at $US1.0258
  • In New York, the S&P500 was 0.06% lower at 1517.01
  • In Europe, the FTSE100 rose 0.21% to 6277.06
  • China iron ore was flat at $155.10 a metric tonne
  • Gold fell $US17.80 to $US1649.10 an ounce
  • WTI crude oil added $US1.31 cents to $US97.03 a barrel
  • Reuters/Jefferies CRB index lost 0.12% at 300.71

Hi everyone. Welcome to the Markets Live blog for Tuesday.

Contributors: Thomas Hunter, Jens Meyer, Max Mason

This blog is not intended as investment advice

BusinessDay with agencies

Quotes Search

Sort comments by:
  • JBH out. HVN in. Watching like a hungry eagle.

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 2:02PM
  • Lostye...A market that I used to know (feat. Dan)

    Commenter
    Dan
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 1:54PM
  • Dont be stupid trying to short CSL, you will be caught , more sensible is to be a call option

    Commenter
    jacee
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 1:33PM
    • can't help not to short CSL...its result is out tomorrow and I gamble that it will get whacked like COH, the risk/reward is low so willing to take a punt with a stop loss set.

      Commenter
      newbie
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 3:23PM
  • Ding Dong 12.50 pm ASX 200 in the red Who could have guessed.

    Commenter
    Jonaze
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 1:03PM
    • I'm curious what your investment strategy is. Presumably you are a "long" investor who, despite knowing the market falls "every day", stays in, never sells and just grumbles about it.

      Is that close?

      Commenter
      cranberry
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 1:19PM
    • Cranberry, You are so far off the mark that you were aiming at the triple twenty and you missed the board completely. But keep being curious.

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 2:02PM
    • How can you have a strategy, when stock markets are volatile and unstable. Rationality is often thrown out the window. So whether you're long or short, a lot of it is really luck. So, the primary thing to look for is stability, and we've got that with improvemnents in Europe, China, and the USA. But, at any moment, anything could happen that will lift or sink the market. So, if you're in or out of the market when that happens, that will determine whether your bet was successful or not. Yesterday, I was long in JBH and achieved 3.51%, while those shorters got whacked as Alan Kohler said. But, at the end of the day, it was luck that it kept going up. And I could have long again this morning, but I didn't have the courage after yesterday's monster rise.

      Commenter
      Gordon Gekko
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 2:47PM
    • Well spotted there sporty..totally agree.

      Commenter
      Ding Dong
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 2:57PM
    • Interesting. Ok, I'll aim at the bloke collecting empties to the right of the board. Does the strategy involve buying at open and then selling at 10:11am?

      Commenter
      cranberry
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 3:36PM
    • Getting warmer Cranberry. And I don't get grumpy everyday. I remember in my earlier life, the day before they opened the Sydney Harbour Bridge, 18/3/1932 the last day since that the ASX finished higher at 4.10 then it was at 10.10. I was very happy that day.

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 4:41PM
  • correction is imminent...even better if the ASX200 hits the 5000 mark...be ready to short with a long put on CBA. CSL looks promising as well before Feb, 17. .

    Commenter
    newbie
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 12:41PM
  • After saying yesterday they would not alter the mining tax system, today they announce they might. Following on from the surplus ooops ! fiasco. Nothing like a bit of certainty in the (not really) election period, in parliament yesterday labor said thy had not set an election date as it can only be set when the GG formally approves it. Such sophistry from union hacks is surprising. She may be the first PM to be evicted with politically induced whiplash caused by the sudden changes in direction. The market seems to be ignoring them but the miners must be completely confused.

    Commenter
    Another Grump
    Location
    Vic
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 12:23PM
  • A typical day on for ASX 200. Flies up until 10.11am then either flies back down again or dribbles down all down making lower lows all day. Little wonder were up 120 points in 40 months. Averaged out 3 points per month for 40 months.What a joke. Can't wait till 14/10/2013. The election will come and go,The Election will come and she will go.

    Commenter
    Jonaze
    Location
    S
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 11:31AM
    • Then you must be super-psyched that the election is actually on 14/09/2013, meaning it will all happen a month earlier than you had expected!

      Commenter
      Luke16
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 12:03PM
    • Well, if the ALP are to blame for the Euro Crisis and US Fiscal Cliff, then Howard's LNP is to blame for the GFC (as it started before the 2007 election), which makes the LNP crap economic managers!

      Commenter
      Life Is Good
      Location
      The Real World
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 12:12PM
    • Yep, I'll be rich about a month after.

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 1:05PM
    • @Life is good: No one has mentioned the Fiscal Cliff, Euro Crisis or GFC. Two of which barely touched our markets anyway. The issue is a complete lack of ecomonomic direction - no one knows which way Swan and Gillard are going to fall. Decisions are rescinded or changed, sometimes within days, sometimes reversing and reversing several times. Money they do not have is spent on pointless promises, they bought $2B of computers at double the real price; family allowances are cut; the mining industry, a bread winner for Australia, has no idea what the government is doing or stands for. Its not just us liberals as you would have it, look at the quality in the Labor Party that has deserted or been removed over the past year. And nearly all of it to satisfy a meglomaniac, JG; a couple of toady independents; and Brown; who himself has run a mile, and left the greens in dissaray. What do they stand for - its not business, its not the poor - who were deserted many years ago in the rush for Armani suits and the corrupt dealing of the unions who are meant to protect them. Oh yes, we have a seat on the security council and for that we continue to let our soldiers die in a shithole like Afghanistan. So we are big players on the world stage - get a grip ! no-one knows us or cares. I could go on but i suspect I am speaking to someone who, like Gillard and Swan, also does not listen.

      Commenter
      Another Grump
      Location
      Vic
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 1:33PM
    • Another Grump <3 that should look like a heart i case it doesn't turn out

      Commenter
      trying
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 3:06PM
  • Knock knock,
    Who's there,
    All Ords 5000
    All Ords 5000 what?
    All Ords 5000 living on a prayer

    Did we find a way to deal with the massive global move to de-leverage and expect to still see growth without using a reset button?

    Commenter
    Opinion Only
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 11:16AM
    • Oh, that's a good one, I like it.

      Commenter
      Dan
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 12:07PM
  • Is CSL heading down the same path as COH?

    Commenter
    I have to find a permanent name for this blog
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 11:01AM
    • It does look over bought.

      Commenter
      geoff
      Location
      burraneer
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 11:35AM
    • It's almost like CSL is holding it's breath until tomorrow, hope I don't regret staying put!

      Commenter
      trying
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 1:30PM
  • Are we there yet? Can I go short now?

    Commenter
    ingenuous
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 10:42AM
  • hm...my bet is 4976 at close.

    Commenter
    Prop Trader
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 10:37AM
  • Had some good rises from retailers DJS, MYR, SFH, and JBH. What do you think will happen to Pacific Brands PBG - results due 18/2?

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 10:35AM
  • Ding dong ding dong, AO @ 5000
    ding dong.

    Commenter
    Magoo
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 10:35AM
    • You made the market fall ding dong.

      Or maybe it was Jonaze.

      Commenter
      cranberry
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 11:41AM
  • Do't ya just love LNC, at the risk of being politically incorrect, its up and down like a (Ed: Sorry, deleted.)

    Commenter
    Another Grump
    Location
    Vic
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 10:30AM
    • ohhh now I want to know what you deleted Ed.

      ;)

      Commenter
      ohhhh
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 10:47AM
    • not sure a reference to undergarments of the worlds oldest profession really belongs on this blog Grump (though admittedly I've used that reference a few times)

      I agree with your main point though... the most volatile stocks are a true delight for traders.

      Commenter
      A Bodhi Nuisance
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 1:35PM
    • Has it got to do with honeymoons ?

      Commenter
      The Oracle
      Location
      Oberon
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 2:50PM
  • Good day for JBH shorters. Hills could be a good short term long bet.

    Commenter
    Gordon Gekko
    Location
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 10:16AM
  • SPIs up 17 points Won't even get to 7 up before in the red by 10.11am.

    Commenter
    Jonaze
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    February 12, 2013, 9:56AM
    • Don't give up your day job....

      Commenter
      Cornucopia
      Location
      GC
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 10:24AM
    • @Cornucopia.

      Hope you didn't speak too soon.

      Commenter
      JohnB
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 10:55AM
    • Be nice cornucopia, not in the red but as usuall the sharp dip at about 10:20. They nearly always lose their nerve after the early ramping.

      Commenter
      Another Grump
      Location
      Vic
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 11:01AM
    • The question that should be asked is..........Why the early morning ramp every day?

      Commenter
      geoff
      Location
      burraneer
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 11:23AM
    • Grumpy, its more offshore Global Equity Managers receiving funds in their time zone and thus need to buy Oz shares as we are 2% of MSCI. Given it is evening/night over there, they don't worry about timing the market, just getting set. The recent size of the effect means big flows into equities.

      Commenter
      Life Is Good
      Location
      The Real World
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 11:40AM
    • It's only "every day" when you ignore the days when it doesn't happen.

      Commenter
      cranberry
      Location
      Date and time
      February 12, 2013, 1:00PM
Comments are now closed