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Markets Live: Investors dump banks

Date

Patrick Commins, Max Mason

Losses in the big banks did most of the damage in a broad-based sell-off after a poor early lead from Wall St, while investors sold down QBE and Coca-Cola.

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That’s it for Markets Live today.

You can read a wrap-up of the action on the markets here.

Thanks for reading and your comments.

See you all again tomorrow morning from 9.

Shares suffered their biggest daily drop in a month as the local market posted a broad based sell-off after following Wall Street lower early, with banks leading the decline.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index tumbled 69.7 points, or 1.3 per cent, on Monday to 5358.9, while the broader All Ordinaries Index also lost 1.3 per cent to 5353.6 with all major sectors affected by the slide.

Local stocks fell at the open after equity markets in the United States and Europe fell heavily on Friday night. Market weakness around Asia in the afternoon pressure applied further pressure.

The negative sentiment in US markets continued to extend to locally listed internet and biotechnology stocks, which were the worst-performing sub sectors. Carsales.com fell 3.5 per cent to $10.08 while CSL lost 1.9 per cent to $67.28.

A stronger dollar continued to apply extra pressure to shares. At the local close the Australian dollar was buying US93.87¢ up from US93.79¢ at Friday’s local close.

A sell-off in the big banks weighed heavily on the market. Commonwealth Bank of Australia shed 1.1 per cent to $76.51, while National Australia Bank dropped 1.3 per cent to $34.88. Westpac Banking Corporation and ANZ Banking Group each lost 1.5 per cent to $34.15 and $33.34 respectively.

Nickel miner Western Areas was the best-performing stock in the ASX 200, climbing 5.3 per cent to $3.96 with nickel futures trading at their highest price in more than a year due to concerns a ban on Indonesian exports will limit supply.

Read more.

And here are the best and worst performing stocks in the ASX 200 today.

Coca-Cola Amatil suffered the biggest falls, plunging another 7 per cent. The company's debt was downgraded by Standard & Poor's today.

Magellan and Platinum bore the brunt of the risk-averse investor who seem happy to lock in profits on the fund managers as the environment for global equities takes a bit of a turn for the worse.

Western Areas was the best of the only 16 stocks that finished in the black.

Best and worst performing stocks in the ASX 200 at the close.

Best and worst performing stocks in the ASX 200 at the close.

The market started in a hole and then just kept on digging, with banks doing most of the damage in a 70-point drop in the ASX 200 to 5358.9.

The All Ords was also 1.3 per cent lower to 5353.6.

Westpac and ANZ dropped 1.5 per cent, NAB 1.3 per cent and CBA 1.1 per cent. Staying in the financials sector, QBE plunged 3.7 per cent after announcing a strategic review of its US operations, which just screams "writedowns".

BHP joined the 169 names in the top 200 to record losses, trading 0.7 per cent lower, while Rio finished 1.3 per cent down.

Defensive stocks weren't protected, with consumer staples like Wesfarmers 1.3 per cent down and Woolies 1.1 per cent down.

Telcos were the best performing corner of the market, only down 0.1 per cent, after Telstra added 0.4 per cent, while Singtel was flat.

Concerns about China's growth is expected to cap gains in the Australian dollar, which is teetering at five-month highs.

The Aussie is steady today, fetching a touch under 94 US cents. Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of China's first quarter GDP data on Wednesday which is expected to have significant weight on the currency.

CBA currency strategist Peter Dragicevich said the figures were expected to be in line with Chinese manufacturing activity data, which has underwhelmed so far this year.

If that's the case, Mr Dragicevich expected the Aussie to take ''some heat off the Aussie''.

''But we don't expect it to fall too far,'' he said.

''Fundamentals domestically look like they've start to pick up, so that should keep the Aussie pretty well supported.''

The RBA releases its minutes from its March meeting on Tuesday and Mr Dragicevich expected officials would continue to talk up the transition of the economy away from mining-led growth and refrain from jawboning the Aussie.

''We don't think the RBA look to explicitly talk down to strength in the currency.

''We have seen a bit of a bounce back in Australian commodity prices since early March, so that will provide some comfort to the RBA.

''That's one thing they've been stressing over the last year, is the divergence between the Aussie and the terms of trade. So the lift recently that we've seen in the Aussie has been supported by those commodity prices.''

RBS currency strategist Greg Gibbs said the domestic company was performing stronger-than-expected, thanks to a buoyant housing market, which had in turn supported the Aussie.

Mr Gibbs said the potential for significant growth in residential construction this year and strong house prices had boosted confidence, which was helping offset fears on slowing growth in mining investment.

Read more.

 

QBE Insurance Group has confirmed that it is undertaking a strategic review of its US-based middle market business, leaving all options open including a possible sale of the unit.

Investors are worried: the stock is down 3.8 per cent to $11.97 today.

That’s because the announcement has raised analysts’ suspicions that the $1.2 billion paid for the US insurer Winterthur will lead to write downs, according to CMC Markets chief strategist Michael McCarthy.

The review was foreshadowed in February, during the company's full-year profit results, and comes after news reports surfaced that QBE might be considering selling the business.

"We are well advanced in implementing remediation work which will allow QBE's North American business to return to profit," QBE chief executive John Neal said in a statement.

"As part of this process, we continue to assess options for various components of the US business, including the US middle market business," he said.

The review will include "a continuing focus on improving the profitability of the middle market business, consideration of opportunities to increase scale and support for our business partners, refining the business strategy and operating model and exploring options for a potential sale of all or part of the middle market business."

Read more.

Coca Cola Amatil’s credit rating has been cut from A- to BBB+ by Standard & Poor’s in a fall from grace for a credit that has always been one of the local market’s strongest names.

"The downgrade reflects our opinion that mounting competition and margin weakness in Coca Cola Amatil's Australian business have weakened [its] operating performance to levels below our expectations for the previous 'A-' rating," Standard & Poor's credit analyst May Zhong said.

In previous years CCL’s cost of funds was so low that it would raise debt at below the rate the banks would offer on term deposits.

CCL's shares are 7 per cent lower today to $9.07.

The Federal Court has ruled that supermarket giant Woolworths breached undertakings made to the regulator this year that limited it to a standard discount of 4 cents per litre off petrol.

Last year the ACCC reached a deal with Woolworths and Coles that limited discounts on shopper dockets earned at supermarkets to 4 cents per litre.

However, both chains quickly introduced new schemes that allowed shoppers to up their discounts by spending money at the petrol station convenience store with a Woolworths scheme allowing shoppers to boost the fuel discount to 8 cents per litre.

The ACCC immediately reacted to enforce its undertakings, with the court, in its judgment on Monday, ruling it as a breach of its deal with the regulator.

The ACCC had alleged that Woolworths’ initial 4 + 4 cents fuel discount offer was conditional on Woolworths supermarket purchases and breached its undertaking from last year because the discount was only available to a customer who has made a qualifying supermarket purchase.

From 10 March 2014, after the proceedings had commenced, Woolworths introduced a new offer so that the 4 cent discount for purchases of $5 or more in the petrol station was available without a supermarket purchase, although it could also be used in conjunction with the 4 cent discount offer on qualifying fuel purchases.

It took action to defend its offer, asking the court to declare at the time that its ‘‘stacked’’ 8 cent per litre discount offer met with the undertakings it made to the ACCC in December.

Read more.

Breached ... Woolworths new shopper dockets not help up in court.

Breached ... Woolworths new shopper dockets not help up in court. Photo: Glenn Hunt

Santos chief executive David Knox has voiced confidence in the future of Australia’s nascent shale gas sector, despite others cautioning that the US boom in the fuel is unlikely to be replicated elsewhere.

Addressing a CEDA function in Adelaide, Mr Knox said that from Santos’s work so far in unconventional gas in the Cooper Basin, he was optimistic about the future for commercial production, although acknowledged it may take some time to come up with the optimal combination of technology.

“I’m confident we will be able to do it when we apply the right technology, and it will probably take a few years to unlock that,” Mr Knox said.

He said Santos had brought two vertical shale wells into production, and had two other horizontal wells it would test for production this year.

But speaking at the same event, international energy expert Professor Paul Stevens said various factors such as property rights that differed between the US and elsewhere meant the success the sector has seen in the US made it unique.

“When you apply these characteristics in other parts of the world it doesn’t look so promising for the moment,” Professor Stevens said.

Mr Knox also defended the move toward gas exports from Australia’s east coast, despite the resulting increase in domestic gas prices.

Gold stocks are back in vogue, with miners of the precious metal rising 25 per cent more than the ASX’s biggest companies this year.

But doubts linger about how much further the rally can go.

Gold prices hit a three-week high, rising 0.6 per cent to $US1328.30 an ounce, on Monday amid increased fears about tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

So far gold prices have bounced about 10 per cent this year compared with the S&P/ASX 200 Index rising 1.4 per cent.

ANZ head of commodity research Mark Pervan attributed much of the gains to a steep sell-off among gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which sold about 30 per cent of their holdings late last year as US bond yields hit 2 1/2 year highs.

''So gold prices came off about 25 per cent last year,'' Mr Pervan said. ''But that's completely unwound now. We have seen a fair bit of momentum taken out of the US bond markets.''

Bond markets rallied amid increased speculation US would soon raise interest rates as the Federal Reserve hit full throttle on tapering its asset buying program. But all has not gone to plan this year, with a wave of poor US economic data and the Fed suggesting it might not be as eager to trim its stimulus.

However, while the gold price has bounced thanks to ''opportunistic buying'' from India and China, Mr Pervan said ETF holdings ''haven't really taken off''.

Instead, he said there has been a swing back into equities, after ETFs knocked the momentum out of the gold equity markets for much of the past decade.

Read more.

Gold stocks (gold line) have massively outperformed both the strong gold price (white) and the weak ASX 200 (green).

Gold stocks (gold line) have massively outperformed both the strong gold price (white) and the weak ASX 200 (green).

Illustration: Michael Mucci.

Illustration: Michael Mucci.

It's often said we pay a lot for superannuation. But how much? Well, research firm Rainmaker estimates Australians paid $18.6 billion in fees for their retirement savings to be managed last financial year.

That is equivalent to $1075 for every adult in the country, including those who don't even have super.

It's the same amount that was paid out last year by Medicare, which provides free or subsidised healthcare services to the entire population. And just like Medicare costs, super fees are likely to swell, with the total super pool tipped to triple over the next two decades.

Funnily enough, business groups don't complain about this cost burden as they warn about growth in government spending on social services. That's hardly surprising - super is a significant source of corporate profits.

But thankfully, the issue should come under serious scrutiny in the financial system inquiry being led by former Commonwealth Bank boss David Murray.

As submissions from the Reserve Bank and Treasury highlight, ours is one of the most expensive private pension schemes in the world.

The RBA cites Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development figures on pension funds' operating expenses as a share of total assets.

In the RBA's graph, Australia's cost ratio was third-highest among OECD countries, behind Spain and Mexico.

Read more.

QBE has confirmed a strategic review of its struggling US based middle market business.

Chief executive John Neal said the company was well on the way to constructing a plan to return the US business to profit.

‘‘The review will include a continuing focus on improving the profitability of the middle market business, consideration of opportunities to increase scale and support for our business partners, refining the business strategy and operating model and exploring options for a potential sale of all or part of the middle market business," Mr Neal said.

The middle market represents around $US900 million in gross written premium.

QBE shares are down 3.4 per cent at $12.15.

Sheesh, what a day. The bears are gathering some steam and losses on the benchmark ASX 200 index have accelerated into the afternoon.

As the chart shows, the index is through the 30-day moving average and approaching the 50-day MA.

The ASX 200 is through the 30-day (pink line) and now approaching 50-day (green line) moving average.

The ASX 200 is through the 30-day (pink line) and now approaching 50-day (green line) moving average.

US jobless claims may have dropped to their lowest level since 2007, at 300,000, but Morgan Stanley economists reckon that Easter gift won’t last for long.

‘‘Over the past several years, jobless benefits have jumped by an average 20,000 during the week that includes Good Friday, and have fallen by an average 23,000 three weeks later. Assuming a repeat, this year the jump in jobless claims will come in the week ending 19 April.’’

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Not a great day for Coke and cheese - CCA and Bega Cheese are the worst performers today. Coke has received a mixed but mostly negative review by analysts after their Friday earnings update shocker (see post at 11:10).

Asset managers Henderson and Magellan are among the worst performers in the ASX 200 so far.

Sirius Resources and Western Areas are the best performers, with Ten Network enjoying some rare time in the sun.

Pacific Brands is also among the better performers, perhaps off the back of conjecture around more merger activity in the retail space.

Best and worst performers in the ASX 200 around midday.

Best and worst performers in the ASX 200 around midday.

Sticking with David Jones, the South Africa’s Woolworths bid has put some much needed fizz into the local retail sector, notes the AFR's Street Talk column.

It is interesting that electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi also had a good week with shares in the Sydney company finish almost 6 per cent higher. (The shares have eased 0.8 per cent lower today to $20.47.)

There are observers who believe a local or foreign predator could be running the ruler over the $2 billion company, which has shrugged off malaise affecting the sector.

A cashed-up Wesfarmers is the most logical Australian predator given there would not be competition issues. The Perth conglomerate could spend $7 billion, according to UBS analysis, and has enjoyed success with retail by turning around the Coles supermarket chain. JB Hi-Fi, of course, is in better condition than Coles before Wesfarmers came along.

JB Hi-Fi shares are up 49 per cent over the past year, easily outperforming rival Harvey Norman (33.6 per cent) and the wider consumer discretionary index (15.5 per cent).

Despite these gains it trades at a P/E of 16 times – about the same as Harvey Norman (which has been the subject of private equity approaches in the past).

Woolworths (the Australian version) tried – and failed – to do a deal with JB Hi-Fi back in 2008. Both sides could not agree on price while Woolies CEO at the time, Michael Luscombe, did not get on with then JB Hi-Fi boss Richard Uechtritz.

Woolies had a less than pleasant experience in electronics retailing with Dick Smith, which it sold for a big loss to private equity firm Anchorage in 2012. It seems unlikely it would want to test the waters again.

Read more ($).

Woolworths Holdings chief executive Ian Moir has already identified three sites for new, smaller David Jones stores in Australia, and says his investors are now getting over their initial shock at the size of the deal.

Mr Moir has returned to South Africa to meet shareholders to detail his transformative $2.15 billion takeover bid for David Jones and admitted investors were initially surprised.

But he claimed investors have quickly appreciated its strategic and financial sense.

Shares in Woolworths listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell by 7.5 per cent when investors heard the news of its plans to swallow up Australia's second-biggest department store, but bounced back 2 per cent the following day.

Mr Moir is already examining ways to expand David Jones.

He said David Jones' ''village-style'' store in Melbourne's Malvern - which is one-third the size of a normal David Jones store - was a model that Woolworths would roll out further.

''I think we see three obvious [sites] within the next couple of years,'' he said. ''I believe we can get to double digits in time - but it's going to take time.

David Jones's shares are steady at $3.93.

Read more.

Ian Moir.

Ian Moir. Photo: Nic Walker

The devastation of US biotech stocks last week - The NASDAQ Biotech Index fell more than 20 per cent – burst a contemporary stock market bubble.

In the grand scheme of bubbles however, biotech stocks was fairly modest.

This chart from the always excellent chief investment strategist at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Michael Hartett, shows a history of recent asset price bubbles measuring the length of time that the bubbles run for and the gains in price.

The most notable bubble, by a long way, when measured by the duration and the scale of gains, was the run-up in Japanese stocks through to 1987.

Notable bubbles through contemporary history (no tulips). Source: BoA/Merrill Lynch.

Notable bubbles through contemporary history (no tulips). Source: BoA/Merrill Lynch.

Top 20 shorted stocks. Source: CBA

Top 20 shorted stocks. Source: CBA

Cochlear, UGL and Monadelphous are the top three most shorted stocks on the ASX, according to CBA analysis of ASIC data.

“A stock being among the top 20 shorted stocks sends a strong signal that the market is concerned about the stock, especially when the short position exceeds double digits,” write the CBA analysts. “Entering the top 20 or exiting the top 20 is also a strong signal to the market.”

The biggest weekly increases in shorting positions over the week to April 4 were Singtel (Optus), up 122 per cent, BC Iron, up 101 per cent, and iiNet, up 52 per cent, report the CBA analysts.

Biggest falls were in shorting interests were in Kingsgate Consolidated (down 54 per cent), Independence Group (38 per cent lower) and GUD (down 28 per cent).

Telstra could be paid over $98 billion by NBN Co over the next 55 years for infrastructure leases and other fees, according to a report in industry publication CommsDay.

The article said a May 2013 Goldman Sachs analysis for NBN Co showed the government-owned company building the national broadband network would be forced to pay $98.2 billion in nominal pre-tax profits to Telstra between financial years 2011 and 2067.

According to the draft document cited by Commsday, $88 billion of this would be from infrastructure leases for Telstra assets like underground ducts, which are needed for the construction of the NBN.

NBN Co's payments would grow to $1 billion per year in financial 2019 from $400 million per year in the year ending June 30. The company would be paying Telstra $2.9 billion per year by 2067.

Though Telstra has characterised its existing deal with NBN Co as offering $11.2 billion in net present value through infrastructure lease and other payments, the exact fees owed to the telecommunications company have never been released.

The then-Coalition's broadband plan was forecast to add an extra 20 per cent, or $2.4 billion, onto the value of Telstra's plan because the company would be able to keep using its hybrid fibre coaxial network, Commsday reported.

Read more.

Following a 15 per cent downgrade on Friday, Coca-Cola Amatil shares had their biggest fall in 23 years, but it looks like some analysts see value in the struggling beverages conglomerate.

Credit Suisse’s Larry Gandler has upgraded his rating from underperform to outperform, with a new 12 month target price of $11. It should be noted that prior to Friday’s $54 million downgrade, Coca-Cola shares were trading around $11.40.

‘‘The situation is that the overall business is experiencing modest erosion on the top line which we believe is rectifiable with up-weighted investment and improved on-trade execution,’’ Mr Gandler said.

‘‘We feel that so much of Coca-Cola Amatil’s Australia beverage problems are due to a transitional period at Coca-Cola where previous management became focused upon the exit door and short-term outcomes.’’

We here at Markets Live note below that views are mixed in Coca-Cola, with the majority of analysts changing their view on where the company’s share price will be heading.

Looking across the housing markets of NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, which last year were responsible for 90 per cent of housing starts, CIMB surveyed 40 of Australia’s top 100 home builders to gauge emerging trends and get ahead on published indicators.

60 per cent of respondents said sales were average, while 40 per cent said good. CIMB said sales are a good indicator of future housing starts. 50 per cent of those surveryed said sales were the same as six months ago, but 30 per cent said sales were down.

‘‘Others noted that the decline in rental yields removed a key tailwind for new home sales,’’ CIMB said.

‘‘While builders’ views are more subdued than they have been in previous surveys, it is worth stressing
that most expected a moderation of growth rather than a correction in activity levels. On average, builders expected housing starts to increase by 5 per cent in 2014.’’

CIMB said that there were prospects for improvement across the building materials sector but that most of the upside was already priced in.

On the AUD, NAB Research’s Ray Attrill notes that Friday’s CFTC (futures) market data showed that the AUD speculative positions flipped to net long through Tuesday (+3.3k from -4.9k).

This is the first time traders have been net long the local dollar since the week of May 7, 2013 (see chart).

“If this is symptomatic of the broader trading community, there is no longer an overhang of short AUD positioning and this suggests that as when the USD finds its feet, downside moves in the AUD should be easier to come by,” writes Attrill.

Traders are more negative than positive on the Aussie dollar for the first time in about a year. Source: NAB.

Traders are more negative than positive on the Aussie dollar for the first time in about a year. Source: NAB.

Shares have followed their offshore lead and sunk early, with the big banks and miners continuing their declines.

The ASX 200 is trading 19 points lower, or 0.4 per cent, 5409.3, to 5409.3, while the All Ords is down a similar amount to 5403.1.

Telcos are the only sector higher - by 0.4 per cent - while consumer discretionary names are down 0.7 per cent. Gold miners are 0.1 per cent down despite gold trading higher.

QBE Insurance Group may be looking to sell its $1.2 billion mid-market North American insurance business, Winterthur, as the global insurer continues its efforts to fix its troubled US division.

UK-based The Insurance Insider cites sources suggesting QBE may be looking to offload the business, seven years after the insurance giant made the acquisition under the watch of former ­acquisition-hungry chief executive Frank O’Halloran.

The report suggested QBE was ­interviewing advisers ahead of the speculated sale, including Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Willis Capital Markets. QBE declined ­to comment .

The market speculation comes after QBE boss John Neal said in February that the insurer had spent a fair bit of time last year conducting in-depth analysis around the US property and casualty market.

QBE’s middle-market operation, which sits within the property and ­casualty division of the business, ­contributed about $880 million of gross written premium or revenue to the group.

The shares of the following companies have been put in a trading halt this morning:

  • Australian Pharmaceutical Industries: expects to make an announcement to the market in relation to the carrying value of its assets as part of the process of finalising its half year results now scheduled to be released on 30 April 2014.
  • Red 5: requested pending the release of an announcement regarding the status of the cease and desist order on the Siana gold project.
  • Bathurst Resources: requesting this trading halt so that it may undertake a competitive bookbuild as part of a placement (currently expected to be 10-12% of its capital at a discount of 15-20%), the processes for which were commenced overnight but which will not be completed by 10am this morning.

 

 

Market manipulation appears to be rife on the Australian sharemarket when compared to other major markets around the world, according to the country's leading market researchers.

The dramatic price spikes which occur just before the markets close at 4pm – the strongest proxy of market manipulation – are being used to boost bonuses for rogue fund managers, the researchers claim.

The dramatic price movements occur in the last 15 minutes of trading each month, quarter and end of financial year and most likely relate to fund managers ­lifting their trading results which are measured on the key dates.

"They are getting money in all the time but instead of buying it every day they save it and buy it at the last minute to drive more demand," chief executive of the federal ­government-backed Capital Markets Co-operative Research Centre, Michael Aitken, told The Australian Financial Review.

For example, on December 20 last year, $23 million was traded in the last 15 minutes for just three stocks, Village Roadshow, Ocean Gold and REA, most likely delivering a healthy Christmas bonus to the rogue fund managers.

On Friday, $23 million in trading occurred for the same three stocks over the entire day.

Read more.

The contrasting fortunes of two of the US’s biggest banksJPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo — at first glance point to the ascendancy of Main Street over Wall Street.

On Friday, JPMorgan reported an 18.5 per cent slump in first-quarter profit, hurt by steep revenue declines in its once-vaunted trading machine.

In contrast, first-quarter earnings at Wells Fargo, less dependent on such Wall Street profit generators, rose 14 per cent, fuelled in part by a surge in auto lending and loans to corporations.

And the wrenching sell-off in US high-growth technology and biotech shares could leave investors braced for more than a minor pullback when earnings pick up speed this week.

First-quarter earnings estimates have fallen sharply as many companies have blamed the brutal winter for weak outlooks.

With high-valuation stocks under pressure, earnings could be subjected to even more investor scrutiny than usual.

"There's scepticism among investors about the outlook, and we're getting into the first-quarter earnings season, so you're going to see some positioning," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Profit growth for S&P 500 companies now is projected at just 0.9 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, down from a January 1 forecast for 6.5 percent growth, Thomson Reuters data showed.

This week, 54 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report first-quarter earnings, compared with 29 last week.

Earnings are expected from such high-profile names as General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Google and IBM.

A move into blue chips is one trend emerging after the market's slide, which pushed the Nasdaq down on Friday to close below 4,000 for the first time since Feb. 3.

Read more at Reuters.

The Australian dollar is higher, supported by optimism about the local economy and the possibility of the euro zone getting more economic stimulus.

At 7.00 AEST on Monday, the local unit was trading at 93.90 US cents, up from 93.75 cents on Friday.

Over the weekend, European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi said he might have to take action if the euro rises any further.

OM Financial senior client adviser Stuart Ive said the possibility of a lower euro zone interest rate or economic stimulus from the ECB was a key focus for currency markets.

"He's indicated that the ECB is ready to act and the euro has opened 50 points lower (against the US dollar) and the Aussie is considerably higher against the euro," Mr Ive said from Wellington.

The Australian dollar is at 67.83 euro cents, up from 67.47 on Friday.

Last Thursday, the Australian dollar rose past 94.50 US cents after it was reported that the local unemployment rate for March fell of 0.3 percentage points to 5.8 per cent.

The currency had a bit of a fall on Friday but, Mr Ive said, the positive outlook for the Australian economy will continue to give the local currency support.

"Since the start of this year, the economic data for Australia has been slowly getting better," he said.

"The employment data last week certainly surprised the markets, so that's two good numbers on the trot. It's always good news when that happens.

"It shows there is a bit of strength coming through on the Australian economy and that will always underpin the Australian dollar."

Read more.

A Melbourne based miner is the focus of the global mining industry this morning, after Chinese-owned miner MMG finally completed the $US5.85 billion ($6.22 billion) purchase of Glencore Xstrata's Las Bambas mine.

Despite being listed in Hong Kong, MMG's headquarters are on Melbourne's Southbank, and the purchase of Peru's Las Bambas mine in Peru ends a long saga that has drawn out the completion of the merger between Glencore and Xstrata.

Chinese authorities had refused to approve the Swiss merger unless Las Bambas was sold to Chinese entities, in a bid to prevent the merged entity dominating the copper market.

MMG will buy Las Bambas in a joint venture with other Hong Kong groups Guoxin International and CITIC.

The money will be sourced through both equity and debt, with assistance from the China Development Bank.

The transaction will also help resolve other deals, with PanAust's desire to purchase Glencore's 80 per cent stake in the giant Frieda River mine in Papua New Guinea also unable to proceed until the Las Bambas issue was resolved.

ASX listed Highlands Pacific has a 20 per cent stake in Frieda River.

Read more.

Local stocks are poised to open lower after extended losses on Wall Street and iron ore took a dive.

Here's what you need2know:

  • SPI futures down 14 points to 5406
  • AUD at 93.81 US cents, 95.35 Japanese yen, 67.81 Euro cents and 56.15 British pence at 6am AEST
  • On Wall St (on Friday), S&P500 -1%, Dow Jones -0.9%, Nasdaq -1.3%
  • In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.2%, FTSE100 -1.2%, CAC -1.1%, DAX -1.5%
  • Spot gold inches higher to $US1318.42 an ounce
  • Brent oil down 0.1% to $US107.33 per barrel
  • Iron ore falls 1.9% to $US116.90 per metric tonne
  • LME three-month copper up 0.2% to $US6670 a tonne

 

What's on today:

  • Australia credit and debit card lending
  • US retail sales, business inventories tonight at 10:30pm AEST

 

Stocks to watch:

  • RBC Capital Markets has maintained an “outperform speculative risk” call on Senex Energy with a $1.15 price target
  • Deutsche Bank has a sell recommendation on Treasury Wine Estates and a 12-month price target of $3.20 a share after a read-through of Constellation’s results
  • Morningstar has a “hold” recommendation on no-moat rating Seven Group Holdings. “Our fair value remains at $9.00. Seven Group’s shares are undervalued with the market becoming increasingly concerned about the dissimilar nature of the businesses and investments.”
  • Coca-Cola Amatil cut to neutral vs overweight at JP Morgan
  • Echo Entertainment cut to neutral vs outperform at Credit Suisse
  • Spotless Group will start marketing its $1 billion IPO this week: AFR

 

Read more.

Good morning and welcome to the Markets Live blog for Monday.

Your editors today are Patrick Commins and Max Mason.

This blog is not intended as investment advice.

BusinessDay with wires.

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  • CIA boss goes to Ukraine. One day later the winner of the coup détat becomes bellecose.

    Commenter
    Wally
    Location
    Flynn
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 4:57PM
  • Futures today were only -14 pts. Another totally useless and unreliable economic stat.

    Commenter
    cnswmj
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 4:38PM
  • Thud.

    Commenter
    Undertaker
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 4:19PM
  • So the market manipulators won't be earning any bonuses for FUM at the end of today. That was a big fall in the closing auction. They hold off buying until the end and also hold off selling.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 4:18PM
    • It's called banging the close.

      Commenter
      Bye Bye Fiat Money
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 4:39PM
  • Wasn't even tempted to buy anything today. Feels good being in mostly cash!

    Commenter
    GS
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 3:59PM
    • I added 2000 TLS but otherwise same as you.

      Commenter
      Grinch
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 4:11PM
    • Can't fault you on that, I too am holding a bit of Telstra... and secretly don't mind it falling a bit either! But don't care if the market moves up either.

      Things are too shakey in the US for my liking. Especially with all the IPOs. People can smell the end.

      Commenter
      GS
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 4:30PM
  • Article at 3:17pm has some olllddd stock footage. I can't even remember when petrol was a $1.02 a litre! I think Bear Sterns were still a bank back then :P

    Commenter
    DR
    Location
    syd
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 3:55PM
  • I've seen some steep downward slopes in my Super-G career but the ASX is up there!

    Commenter
    Matthias Mayer
    Location
    Sochi Olympics Downhill Mens Champion
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 3:37PM
  • What i want to know is who were the f.ing idiots who pushed the index up to 5510 last week? easy money for a switched on trader. not saying that's me tho!

    Commenter
    j
    Location
    syd
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 3:28PM
  • "The Federal Court has ruled that supermarket giant Woolworths breached undertakings made to the regulator"

    So what's the penalty? An Australian regulator issued "nothing burger" voucher?

    Commenter
    Small Business Guy
    Location
    Different set of rules
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 3:23PM
  • Bears winning. Again.

    Commenter
    Harvey
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 3:18PM
    • Notice the price of beeeeef went up a lot lately... not many bulls left I hears.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:26PM
    • you mean heads or tails. red or black. odds or evens. its a gamble pure and simple.
      the bank always wins.
      you only "win" when they want to let you. If you lost all the time no one would play.

      Commenter
      smilingjack
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:31PM
    • They always win in the end.

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:54PM
    • It will probably go up by as much tomorrow with a mirror reply! Same Bots buying the same shares.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:59PM
  • Looking at buying AAPL (NYSE) - for the following reasons:
    1) Perk up in the AUD/USD
    2) Sitting on mountain of cash
    3) Rolling out new product categories (ie. iWatch rumoured for later this yr/early next yr) with history of success in new product launches. Wearables are predicted to start to pick up in 2016, and be a large market by 2018 (IDC)
    4) Trading at 12 times earnings (cheap)
    5) Continued commoditisation of iPad/iPhone is at an inflextion point where has hit saturation in mature markets and continued price decline will soon quit start sales in emerging markets
    6) new agreement with Chinese telco to sell iPhone 6.

    Thoughts?

    Commenter
    willo
    Location
    syd
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:49PM
    • I had a buy order on around US$400 but it didn't execute and I ended up buying something else. The move from US$400 to US$500 would have been one of the easiest 25% gains you will see i.e. plenty of cash, strong share holders like Icahn and Einhorn etc.

      I'm not interested now around these US$520 levels. Apple doesn't have anywhere close to the dominance they once did. Samsung and some other players are making some nice products these days. I think Apple will do ok and isn't that expensive at these levels but there are better opportunities around in my opinion.

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:02PM
    • Yes they have seen their market share slipping, but they have been able maintain margins and it is a growing market (so overall profitability is not impacted). Also recent studies have shown strong levels of customer advocacy and retention especially among the soon to be highly lucrative market of teens.

      Commenter
      willo
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:29PM
    • I'd get back in after the NASDAQ stops dropping. You might get a nice 10% rebound

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:31PM
    • I got at $460 and now that I have cashed in few things I will add @ 500. Why.
      1.Mountain of Cash
      2.Patent portfolio and US courts ready to hammer Samsung et al
      3. New product line up iWatch, new Larger Iphone Phablet , expanded Apple TV
      4.Closed ecosystem in itunes,
      5. I think in 12 months with FED taper and rates rising AUD will hit 80-85 USD

      There , for those who claim I only doom and gloom. PS I am also bear on Intel, Cisco and Ebay, but if one plans to hold 2+ years.. though I will hold off to Jun after inevitable May sell off and the .com correction still has bit of steam to let off.

      Commenter
      Dj77
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:33PM
  • JPM has had a terrible 12 months. But it has still massively outperformed CBA LOL

    Commenter
    Gordon Akman
    Location
    Broadbeach
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:48PM
    • Ask them how they got on trying to push MCS on to us all with an overweight recommendation.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:40PM
  • Good time for CCL to buy back shares

    Commenter
    Jane
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:38PM
  • @ 2.26

    The Fed can't taper and it can't not taper. It's like a Hollywood comedy, but without the happy ending.

    Commenter
    Dr No
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:37PM
  • I have been saying for the past few years that the market never seems to stabilise after it goes past 5200, every single time it goes over 5200 it comes crashing down quite quickly, just look at the records and judge for yourself.

    Even gold which have went up substantially over the past few trading sessions has resulted in Gold Stocks declining

    Commenter
    jconnor
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:21PM
    • I called 5440 ceiling several times and fell on deaf ears. No one thought it would stop... 10 months later the market is all but out of puff with nowhere to go but down. There is a debt laden sovereign bomb coming world wide. Taxes can no longer maintain our expected services provisions.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:18PM
    • Then if taxes can't satisfy the demand for services raise taxes at the upper end of the scale. Cutting benefits and services for the less well-off and raising taxes like the GST are a double-whammy for those at the lower end of the scale.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:54PM
    • @mitch, stop trying to spend my money I should have a say in who and how I help.

      Once you have given any money and proceeds from investment, then you can start to tell me what to do with my money

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 4:19PM
  • "Research firm Rainmaker estimates Australians paid $18.6 billion in fees for their retirement savings to be managed last financial year.

    That is equivalent to $1075 for every adult in the country, including those who don't even have super."

    That's right. This is Australia. Politicians do great. Bankers do great. RE Agents do great. Conveyancing lawyers do great. Financial advisors do great.

    Just don't be a consumer/regular citizen though. Your role in all this is to have a stock market at 2006 levels dominated by 35% financials gouging you on retail banking fees, gouging you on money/super management fees, selling you mortgages, income insurance, funeral insurance, and all manner of financial products you never needed but just transfer your hard earned money over to some paper shuffler.

    Oh.. and if anything is done to you that is particularly untoward ASIC will do nothing about it. Enjoy!

    Commenter
    Regular Citizen
    Location
    Gone Renegade
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:18PM
    • yr role is also to listen to am radio and read newscorp and reinheart press and vote accordingly.

      Commenter
      j
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:51PM
    • I don't vote anymore. I just play along so I don't get fined. At my booth I just scribble on the ballot paper "F@#$ you all".

      Commenter
      Regular Citizen
      Location
      Gone Rogue
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:05PM
  • "Treasurer Joe Hockey warns his generation may have to work til 70"

    Make sure you have your 40 year mortgage on Australian bubble priced property on board by the time you are 30 folks. You want to at least have your DEBT paid off by the time you retire at 70. What a wonderful life ey? The lucky country? The clever country? You betcha!

    Commenter
    Community Banker
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 2:11PM
    • Have you seen the mess left behind by the "new paradigm" Govt.

      Someone has to fix it and Joe is the man for that!

      Commenter
      Glum
      Location
      the adventures of gulliver
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:18PM
    • But of course Federal MPs will continue to qualify for their indexed taxpayer-funded pensions at whatever age they retire after serving 3 terms. Their servants can do the "heavy lifting" on their behalf.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:28PM
    • Meanwhile Hockey and his ilk will retire at 55 and will provide more welfare to well off - negative gearing etc. and corporate welfare to Gina.

      Commenter
      Viking
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:37PM
    • Will they raise the retirement age for pollies to 70?

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:30PM
    • si simple, 20% gst
      why are the dopey buggers afraid to do this?

      Commenter
      stu
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 4:05PM
  • Eddie says another huge buying opportunity coming up for BDR folks, just be patient this week and lob it on like there is no tomorrow!

    I will be in and out pretty quick and my misses will second that!

    Commenter
    The Fireman
    Location
    NSW
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:59PM
  • I thought the fights on the weekend were pretty brutal with Alexander Volkov kicking Mighty Mo in the mouth and Big Country dropping that right hand bomb on Big Nog.

    But neither of those KOs were as bad as the hiding the ASX is copping today!

    Commenter
    Avid Fight Fan
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:55PM
  • Broadening top in JBH?? Stop just above the recent highs ...

    Commenter
    jezza
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:51PM
  • As for CCL , it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Consenus is CCL at $8 and it is seldom wrong . Be patient , let it come to you, DON'T chase it, good luck

    Commenter
    jacee
    Location
    sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:33PM
    • Aye. Wait it out for 2 months till it bottoms out along with the rest of the market.

      Commenter
      Basic
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:05PM
    • maybe they should start putting those "special" ingredients back in...it'll by flyin off the shelves then.

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:16PM
  • QBE reviewing it's US business.

    Translation

    We paid too much for numerous businesses. The losses are mounting. We now realize we are WAY out of our depth.

    Commenter
    Breaking News
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:30PM
  • girls and boys, hang on to your hats and buy physical gold and gold shares.

    we are doomed!

    Commenter
    Glum
    Location
    the adventures of gulliver
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:21PM
    • Doomed Schmoomed this is great. Get on down!!! i cashed out last week in anticipation of this.

      Commenter
      Grinch
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:46PM
  • Last week is looking like a dead cat bounce. I don't believe that the flying feline has been properly skinned though.

    Commenter
    Wally
    Location
    Flynn
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:18PM
    • I saw one on the road flattened during my last trip... close enough! Might be a few more put on the road soon!

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:28PM
  • A good breakdown on the problems faced by wireless internet for broad consumption.

    http://nbnmyths.wordpress.com/why-not-wireless/

    "Despite what you may have read from certain clueless commentators, there is not a single country or telecommunications company anywhere in the World that is attempting to replace fixed networks with wireless in urban areas, or even planning to do so in the future.

    The concise explanation

    -Physical limitations prevent practical wireless speeds from approaching those available over fibre-optic cables

    -There is insufficient radio spectrum to allow wireless to replace fixed networks

    -To even partially overcome the above
    limitations, we would need to build over 75,000 new mobile transmission towers across Australia

    -Wireless network connections are prohibitively expensive, typically being 3-4 times more expensive, for less data volume and at a much slower speed."

    Wireless is a complementary technology. We need both.

    Commenter
    Jimmy
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:17PM
    • Hi Jimmy.

      Don't bother trying to tell that to DJ77. His negativity has already been shouted down by several others in response to my earlier post. Unfortunately his relentless 'glass half empty' outlook clouds all he types (& does??). He is not the only one on here.

      This is a pure numbers game. If you allow negativity, anger& bitterness to cloud your judgement you are done for.

      Commenter
      Market Analyst
      Location
      Richmond
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:10PM
    • "Physical limitations prevent practical wireless speeds from approaching those available over fibre-optic cables"

      Already NBN has announced 100Mbs limits, I get 150+ MBps on my 4G device. Optical cables also have "limitations".. there is limited bandwidth a light beam can carry , while over air frequencies and wavelenghts can be in multiples.

      "There is insufficient radio spectrum to allow wireless to replace fixed networks"

      Lies! 25 Million people in Yokohama area have 4G with service with total data capacity that exceeds Aus ADSL lines. 5G will utilize directional narrow band broadcast,, same principle used by fighter jet radars. More bandwidth less energy greater range.

      "Wireless network connections are prohibitively expensive, typically being 3-4 times more expensive"

      Moore's Law. 10 years ago 5GB ADSL plans were as norm... Now you get that in your mobile bundle for $59 a month.
      Besides an 40BN project that has grown into 80BN project should not mention word "expensive". Out of all current projects of interest to Australian public the NBN is the second biggest disaster of poor planing ,execution and cost over runs. The biggest disaster project btw is Joint Strike Fighter, so NBN is not as useless as fat fighter jet that can't run can't turn and can't fly near bad weather.

      Commenter
      Dj77
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:34PM
    • I refuse to believe you have EVER got 150Mbps on a 4G connection in the real world. Cellular services share channels so that the as the number of users grows, the throughput per user falls. Therefore wireless is not going be able to replace fixed line in user dense environments.

      100Mbps is not by any means the maximum for the NBN. The current world record for fibre optic speeds is in the dozens of Terabits per second. The capacity is, for all intents and purposes, unlimited.

      The amount of information a signal can transfer is inversely proportional to its wavelength. Therefore laser light with a wavelength measured in hundreds of nanometers can carry far, far more information then a radio wave with a wavelength of at minimum, a few dozen cm. It's basic physics. And that is before you even consider that with a fibre you get a channel to yourself, unlike wireless where you have to share.

      Directional narrow band broadcasting is a very long way off in the future. The principle has been proven (at great cost) for at most a couple of dozen aircraft. Using it for thousands of mobile users is at this stage completely unachievable.

      Can you at least read the article before you comment on it? Is that really too much to ask?

      Commenter
      Jimmy
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:27PM
  • What goes on with the ASX. Every Monday. If the ASX is going down due to offshore markets as the Headlines read then why is it that it doesn't go up when offshore markets rise. Why are our banks down today? Did they come out with bad news .Just because Dow comes out with some bad figures and their market goes down why do we go down. We didn't go up when they went up. Is the ASX being manipulated as the headlines read this morning. Seriously 400 points in four years is an absolute joke. Then we lose 50 points today or half a years profit in 1 day.

    Commenter
    Macca
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:17PM
  • Considered buying some CCL at $9.38. Held off to wait for the Ukrainiane imbroglio to resolve. CCL is now $9.06. Can anyone here predict a floor?

    Commenter
    Wally
    Location
    Flynn
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:15PM
    • my guess is 8.83....its has to drop 10% below when i got in.

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:36PM
    • @2.05pm comment:

      Why would anyone listen to what a business lobby group says. They are concerned with boosting the profits of the companies they represent and nothing else. Anyone who genuinely takes on board anything that organisations like the ACCI say are deluding themselves (or are an already rich business owner who wants to get even richer).

      Commenter
      Basic
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:09PM
  • of all the bubbles around the world, tech stocks are being 'pricked' .. the innovation sector that should be leading the market in the coming years is being bashed ... what world am I living in??

    Commenter
    Sir Les
    Location
    Adelaide
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:14PM
    • one in which P/E ratios of 176x are considered 'lofty'? You had to expect this to happen.

      Commenter
      jezza
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:56PM
  • I find it hard to understand how the new owners of DJ's will be able to increase the profit from $95m to $225m per year, just by adding private labels. The numbers do not stack up, not possible to more than double profit just with private labels. Also, DJ's is facing more competition from H&M and Zara, plus new entrants. They will all take market share from DJ's. Sorry it does not add up.

    Commenter
    Viking
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:01PM
    • @Viking, maybe.
      But if you've ever stepped into a Woolworths in sth africa or a newer M&S in UK you'll quickly see how ridiculously out of touch our department stores became.

      Commenter
      brian
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:08PM
    • "I find it hard to understand how the new owners of DJ's will be able to increase the profit from $95m to $225m per year, just by adding private labels."

      You and me both. The best run department store in world is Macy's. They are the only department store who are actually successfully running the omni-channel system/business model. Many others claim they are but there is no evidence to corroborate their claims.

      Macy's sell all/most of the major fashion labels in the world. Surprise surprise they don't sell 20% South African unheard of private fashion label branded goods LMAO!

      Commenter
      Gordon Akman
      Location
      Broadbeach
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:09PM
    • New board and management will certainly help but would find it hard to justify any investment in retail currently. Ww Holdings are doing OK in Witchery and Country Road. Can think of a lot easier jobs.

      H&M doesn't make sense to me but I guess that's why they get paid millions and I don't.

      Commenter
      Harry Rogers
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:23PM
    • People who shop at DJs tend to have brands they already like. So replacing brands (Armani, Lloyd, Zegna) with obscure South African brands will be a disaster for DJs.

      Commenter
      Ryan
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:33PM
  • I have worked at the top level of funds management and I can assure readers that the market is manipulated with other peoples hard earned money by a bunch of cowboys. They dare not risk their own!!! They make car salesmen look like choirboys.

    Commenter
    juve
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:01PM
    • I think most ppl would realise that. Even at the highest level, prob more so.
      The is a rvovling door between the fed and JP morgan after all.
      Even with all this inside information and manipulation, it's interesting to note that they still are bankrupt institutions needing regular bailouts from the tax payer.

      Commenter
      J.
      Location
      Syd.
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:24PM
  • Just wondering if there is anyone on here with thoughts on SIR, I have bought and sold the swings and still hold a few. Nickel prices have improved so was wondering if the prices are maintained what sort of price they may achieve once they they start producing. I realise its probably a "how long is a piece of string" question but would be interested in the thoughts of others.

    ps - smart a$$ calls not required

    Commenter
    "P" Plater
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 1:00PM
  • the article written about market manipulation is so far off the mark its not funny. classic academic who has never worked in the markets not understanding flows.

    Commenter
    Max
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:42PM
    • @Max
      And you are an expert on this?

      Commenter
      Troppo
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:12PM
  • Down she goes. Where she stops nobody knows.

    Commenter
    Harvey
    Location
    What happened to 5500? LOL.
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:38PM
    • "What happened to 5500? LOL."

      Daddy told me it went to live a wonderful life on a farm with Forge Group shares et al.

      Commenter
      Cup Thrower
      Location
      In the Bleachers
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:17PM
  • "Australia has a budget emergency" - Tony Burke

    But Australian houses and apartments are cheap and set to boom right?

    Ha!

    Commenter
    Muppet Spanker
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:38PM
  • S&P cuts Origin Energy DEBT to negative.

    Commenter
    ORGan Donor
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:25PM
    • Market is finally waking up. Over capitalised LNG investment, electricity demand is falling and too much debt.

      Avoid.

      Commenter
      Harvey
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:54PM
  • I meet a lot of people for business and travel. I'm very pleased to say that 95 % of people have an open mind on politics and many issues in the public arena and discuss things civilly and with great intelligence.

    I can assure readers of this blog that in my experience most Australians are hard working fair minded people.

    The dogmatists and paid political advertisers deserve sympathy because presumably this is the only skill they have.

    Perhaps one day they will find the other eye they lost years ago. We live in hope.

    Commenter
    Harry Rogers
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:12PM
  • How can the ASX still be 5400 like it was in 2006 despite having several new hero stocks like Xero and Freelancer etc? Could it be because many other stocks from 2006 are either down or no longer exist/went out of business taking 100% of capital with them?

    Commenter
    Simon Townsend
    Location
    Wonder World
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:10PM
    • those stocks are not in the index.

      Commenter
      Max
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:40PM
    • What index are you talking about Max? When I'm referring to the "ASX 200" I specifically write "ASX 200". When I'm referring to Australian publicly listed exchanges I often just go with "ASX".

      But in any event what is your point? Do you actually have one?

      Commenter
      Simon Townsend
      Location
      Wonder World
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:04PM
    • stocks like XRO and FLN do not contribute to the XJO performance as they are not constituents of the index - so their performance is irrelevant when commenting on broader market performance. i think you will find the second sentence in your original post does not make any sense.

      and FYI XJOAI is near all time highs.

      Commenter
      Max
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:33PM
    • So Xero and Freelancer are publicly listed companies in Australia and the ASX is 5400 like it was in 2006. Glad we cleared that up.

      Commenter
      Simon Townsend
      Location
      Wonder World
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:45PM
  • Pew Research has great new stats on the US entitlement economy. In 1950 the US had 16 workers for every safety net beneficiary - in 2010 they're down to 3 workers.

    The economic maths of the 20th century will not work in the 21st. Anyone who thinks that the US won't default on its 17 trillion dollar debt is deluded. The US will default, the dollar will sink and the country won't even hold together given that whites are becoming a minority in the coming decades.

    Commenter
    Dr No
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:10PM
  • sell in May....and get the fark outta here!

    Commenter
    no banks .. no party!
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:09PM
    • Good call but are you waiting until May to sell?

      Commenter
      Grizzly Adams
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:33PM
    • Grizzly, if the s..t really hits the fan, i'll be buying big in late May.

      Commenter
      no banks .. no party!
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:01PM
    • but its only april 14....sellers are lining up early.....lunar eclipse....ukraine....tech wreck....nah just another monday on the ASX

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:13PM
    • So many SMSF owners are sitting in BIG red territory even after a 1300 point run over 2 years... their funds CONTINUE to sink. Sadly most of them did not back 80% of their stock on the BIG4 and instead retained their diversified run as per the advice of their 'smart' investment brokers! Poor people that were conned are in for a sad year. The red number will only grow.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:24PM
  • Ukraine gov ultimatum to "Pro Russian" rebels in eastern cities is nearing... and Ukrainian forces will move in after with force.

    I wander do they not see the Putin's Bear trap which will serve as excuse from Russian forces to move in and over run the eastern side of the country in hours.

    Perhaps they do see it but its exactly what they want, and are acting as US puppets with actual intention of getting Ruskies to invade. Why? Well over last 10 years many in EU have been asking them self: "what is the point of NATO and when will these Americans leave.. "
    Nothing like threat of Russian bear to silence those voices.

    Commenter
    Dj77
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:06PM
    • The US bear trap is closing in on the Ukraine too. CIA Director John
      Brennan landed in Ukraine on Saturday under an assumed name and held a "series of secret meetings" with the country's "power bloc" Interfax reported, citing an unidentified official in the Ukrainian parliament.

      The US puppet government in Kiev is already cracking down on the brave Ukrainian nationalists who led the revolution in Maidan Square.

      Commenter
      Dr No
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:58PM
  • Well it only took a week for Australia to catch up with the world. Well done!

    Commenter
    panda
    Location
    perth
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 12:04PM
  • Wonder how many held stocks up to 5500 the other day and did not sell or cap some profits as they expect 6000 by end of year?

    Commenter
    Liberator
    Location
    SEQLD
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:53AM
    • :)))

      Commenter
      Arsenio Hall
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:04PM
    • The Libs would have to produce an economic miracle for the AllOrds to reach 6000 by end December. There is absolutely no way that can happen with a contractionary May Budget. Falls in gov't spending will be matched by falls in the AllOrds.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:13PM
  • So I know that there's quite a few on here who are happy to think that the Libs are here for a few terms. However you have to wonder that after the announcements and actions of the last few months who is there going to be left to vote for them. Having turned away manufacturing workers in cars & canning, public servants, airline staff, NESB Australians, pensioners, mums and dads with school-age children, those concerned about the environment, those who want Australia to remain owned by Australians, small business owners, those who support the ABC, those who work in and depend on childcare and aged care, who's left. Perhaps it's just you because it's certainly not the rest of us. You know it's getting bad when Liberal voters move their vote to the Greens. And for those who whine that my comments are not relevant to Markets Live, just about every sector of the population affected has consequences for one sector of the market or another, and none of them good.

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:43AM
    • Yes, let's get Labor back in power and start borrowing and spending again, that will get the job done.

      Commenter
      Dr No
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:54AM
    • I noticed at the weekend there was an embedded reporter in a school hall sheltering from the Cyclone bearing down on northern Queensland.

      The results of the BER was a school hall (sports) that was being used as a cyclone shelter .... because .... it was the safest building in town.

      But BER was an absolute (ask a LIB) failure of politics .... Now go ask those residents sheltering under the benefit if the cost of the hall was worthwhile.

      Commenter
      Joe the POM
      Location
      Geelong
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:55AM
    • So the alternative is, the left wing puffling pontificators???

      Commenter
      Grizzly Adams
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:57AM
    • The pain of preventative medicine now will be far better than the agony of remedial surgery later if nothing is done. I am fair and square in the crosshairs of the impact of the changes that are being touted including job insecurity, but i remain 100% behind the Libs. I want the damage (whoever caused it is irrelevant now) fixed now so that its not handballed to my kids.

      Commenter
      Grinch
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:05PM
    • Not sure if any government can be blamed for our excessive cost of living, high wages and the inability to compete. However, a government that supports unions could be blamed for embracing said union extortion over the last 30 years. None to blame other than ourselves, or said party supporters of the union embrace!

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:08PM
    • Mitch you follow politics like a one eyed collingwood supporter! dont car for politics myself. Its why I make ann effort to skim over your posts... apologies. Doesnt matter who is in power, overall majority want to make Australia better and the minority take advantage of their positions, case closed, that goes for every political party. So who cares? why should car manufacturing be propped up? If miners fall on hard times should we prop them up? or let them fail? And they do fail..... all the time.

      Commenter
      Bear
      Location
      Shooter
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:09PM
    • Joe, it must have been pretty weird for the reporter to mention that the hall they were sheltering in was a result of the BER. Or did you just make that up?

      Chalk up another irrelevant political rant for Mitch. Well done.

      Commenter
      Tim
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:12PM
    • They are obviously not going to vote for Labour - only got 21% of the primary vote in the recent WA senate election. Plamer United Party we the big mover in the voting 12.48% of the primary vote.

      Commenter
      David
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:14PM
    • the problem is we have tony abbot because of the failure of the labor party and the labor party has such deep systemic problems that it is not clear what is going to happen long term - I think tony abbot would never be a natural choice for Australians were it not for the catastrophic failings of the labor party - so what to do ? - who knows - it's a mess really

      Commenter
      julia
      Location
      central victoria
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:16PM
    • He still doesn't get why we are in this mess, does he? Seems a nice guy and just needs to get out of phase 1 mourning nice and fast and help rebuild this country after 6 disastrous years.

      Commenter
      ALittleToTheRight
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:55PM
    • @Grinch, you don't want the "debt" handballed to your grandkids, but you're happy to leave them with a word which will experience 4 degree warming (which will cause catastrophic problems for basic food security, nevermind silly things like 'economic growth').

      To be clear, the Libs don't even think climate change is happening despite every person with a shred of credibility who studies climate change agreeing that it is.

      Commenter
      Basic
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:24PM
    • To be absolutely clear, the Libs agree with the science and the fact that the climate is continuing to change,but they disagree with Labor's taxation/carbon pricing being the best way to attempt to deal with it.

      Commenter
      Chumlee
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:16PM
  • Well, I guess it's another day of robots selling algorithms to other, and depreciating the value of real investors!

    Commenter
    Human Trader
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:39AM
    • Delete "other", and insert "one another".

      I'm only human!

      Commenter
      Human Trader
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:03PM
    • Yep, cause only humans buy shares and computers only sell... right???

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:06PM
  • asx holding up and australia's economy is better than most

    have sold all my stocks in the last 3 weeks, now cashed up and ready to roll.

    gold stocks are ready to rumble and i am back on the SBM wagon, in at 25 cents

    bargain at that price, maybe even a gift!

    Commenter
    the banker
    Location
    albert park
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:35AM
  • "Telstra could be paid over $98 billion by NBN Co over the next 55 years"

    Yet IIN and TPG are MASSIVELY outperforming the TLS share price LOL

    Commenter
    Telco Analyst
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:29AM
  • Hey BSB, AZV found its bottom? Im thinking time to get in.

    Commenter
    Bear
    Location
    Shooter
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:29AM
  • Ok so we have a US$100 trillion and growing global DEBT. The Queensland state government has taken a novel approach of discussing it's share of this DEBT with Queenslanders. They have made the website:

    http://www.strongchoices.qld.gov.au/

    You can go on this website and play a simple math game around spending, revenue, asset sales etc.

    What a sad state of affairs. How can a country as great as Australia be in so much DEBT? What are we doing wrong? What changes do we need to make? Why will people be surprised when the May budget is handed down? What part of "we're broke" do people find so hard to comprehend?

    Commenter
    DEBT Watch
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 11:17AM
  • Market manipulation appears to be rife

    Wow - who would have thought!!
    having worked at a hedge fund many years ago, I am still staggered how dodgy these markets are, but Australia is probably less dodgy and manipulated than other world markets, not that that is saying much.
    Probably best to stick to sports betting people

    Commenter
    JB
    Location
    Burwood
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:54AM
    • Sports betting, you are being "gamed" there as well. http://www.smh.com.au/business/online-betting-unmasked-so-are-we-all-being-gamed-by-an-entire-industry-20140413-36leo.html

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:05AM
    • Mitch: I was winning a lot of cash on american sports betting in the last two years and wondered why the odds were getting so bad the risk/reward wasn't worth it so I quit.

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:50AM
  • "The Clem7 tunnel has about 25,000 motorists who use it each day, well down on the forecast 80,000; while the Airport Link has about 50,000 users each day, instead of the predicted 190,000."

    LOL

    Commenter
    Drop $500k of DEBT on a very modest house
    Location
    Can't afford a few bucks to get home 30 mins earlier
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:44AM
  • Getting some pull back action on some fantastic growth stocks!
    oh sorry.... housing boom! market crashing to 2008 levels... hurrah! shorters dream, bull trap of the century haha.. Gifts!

    Commenter
    Bear
    Location
    Shooter
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:39AM
    • add to that! some beautiful pull back action. what a day! salivating!

      Commenter
      Bear
      Location
      Shooter
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:10PM
  • @ 9:58
    Another report of the market being manipulated does not give me confidence. Already a mug punter, and to be so in a mug market, makes me doubt whether success is really possible for the retail investor.

    Commenter
    Learner
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:37AM
    • Considering that 95% of people who trade for themselves lose money, you need to ask yourself what will make you be one of the 5%? The odds are against you and you would be well advised to stop now and not learn this very expensive lesson...

      Commenter
      Les
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:05AM
    • True mugs have a mega mortgage :)

      Commenter
      Opinion Only
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:36AM
  • Thou shall not pass and hold 5400 successfully for 8 long years! LOL

    Enjoy!

    Ooroo!

    Ding Dong!

    Come again!

    Commenter
    ASX Guard
    Location
    ASX Gates
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:36AM
    • Big Call! Lets se if your right. Your credibility is on the line. Archiving this page for future reference. Good luck. 2800pts any time now!

      Commenter
      Bear
      Location
      Shooter
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:34AM
    • 2006-2014. Times up you lose :D

      Commenter
      ASX Guard
      Location
      ASX Gates
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:54AM
    • I lose? what do you mean by that? im confused. Ok if I was down 30% on SBM is that what you mean by this?

      Commenter
      Bear
      Location
      Shooter
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:07PM
  • purchased $10k CCL @ $9.50.

    Commenter
    worried33
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:33AM
    • 3 sellers for every 2 buyers. Twice as many shares for sale as wanted to buy. Might have a way down to go yet.

      Commenter
      Grinch
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:00AM
    • I'd get in at sub $8 if no further bad news pans out.

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:13AM
    • i value CCL in range of $1 - $1.50....not a single cent more.
      sorry worried...good short for me.
      mums not buying that stuff anymore.

      Commenter
      no banks .. no party!
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:16AM
    • ...and it's still dropping

      Commenter
      Styx
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:19AM
    • but it is a good buy. I think I will pick some up as well.

      Commenter
      Styx
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:21AM
    • 11.10 post. That's a big range that the so-called experts have on the target price predictions for this share - $8.15 to $12.20. Might be a while before the price settles.

      Commenter
      confused
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:31AM
    • CCL is more than just cola, but the jist is about right. Mums are no longer buying lolly water, the hipsters are switching to craft organic sodas , Skater crowd are all on RedBull etc.

      Ofcourse CCL also owns Franklins water but now there is backlash against bottle water as people wake up to fact they are paying 3000% for plastic bottle and free stuff from tap. The "Vitamin Water" has been so hammered by "Choice" shonky award that its sales have halfed.

      In short , yes I am Bearish on CCL :)

      Commenter
      Dj77
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:56AM
  • HZN out of trading halt after go ahead for stanley project....in @ 0.34c see how we go

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:29AM
    • I am also a holder of this stock at 0.33 wish it would go somewhere recently has been trading between 0.30 and 0.33, might be able to break-out and head towards 0.40 on this good news.

      Commenter
      David
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 12:25PM
  • CCL
    Cynical argument that new CEO talks stock down for their own benefit.
    Who am I to argue with the cynics. CCL’s results are pretty much the same as last year except for the big SPC ($400m) write down, actually written off totally. Dividend is 75 % franked and new CEO suggests no cost recovery achievable in Indonesia due to competition and currency fluctuations.
    Ignoring all the comments I suggest CCL has been over valued for quite a while and has now reached fair value. Big questions about sugar based beverages future and “fashionability” of their drinks.
    Booze still achieves reasonable returns. Perhaps reconsideration of their product mix and alternate product choices maybe in order otherwise can’t really see any great growth path. Typically held as a defensive stock however is it really going forward?No shares held.

    Commenter
    Harry Rogers
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:24AM
    • Harry, dont forget CCL only got back into beer in Dec last year so that should help change the product mix moving forward.

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:33AM
    • Prices on all Coca-Cola varieties down this week at Coles!

      Commenter
      Coles
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:41AM
    • There's an old rule in sharemarket investing that says that one big mark-down is usually followed by another.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:13AM
    • Postscript:
      Terry Davis departed CEO got $3.0m bye bye package plus $150,000 pa 3 yrs not too compete. Maybe pay him $200,000 to PLEASE compete looking at results.

      New CEO Miss Watkins ex Graincorp! Make your own conclusions about board and CEO going forward.

      Commenter
      Harry Rogers
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:45AM
  • "Telstra could be paid over $98 billion by NBN Co over the next 55 years for infrastructure leases and other fees, according to a report in industry publication CommsDay.

    The article said a May 2013 Goldman Sachs analysis for NBN Co showed the government-owned company building the national broadband network would be forced to pay $98.159 billion in nominal pretax profits to Telstra between financial years 2011 and 2067.

    According to the draft document cited by Commsday, $88 billion of this would be from infrastructure leases for Telstra assets like underground ducts, which are needed for the construction of the NBN.

    NBN Co's payments would grow to $1 billion per year in financial 2019 from $400 million per year in the year ending June 30. The company would be paying Telstra $2.9 billion per year by 2067."

    It would appear that the future prosperity of the company with by far and away the best mobile network in the land has just been underwritten by the government!

    Wohoo!

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/nbn-co-may-have-to-pay-telstra-98b-20140414-36mbf.html#ixzz2yob2ec7H

    Commenter
    Market
    Location
    Analyst
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:18AM
    • And people were wondering where Telstra's revenue growth in a mature market was going to come from. Why, from the coalition's cheaper NBN of course.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:43AM
    • What vultures at GS are intentionaly ignoring is arrival of future tech wireless.
      5G pluss is already transmiting 1Gbps at over 2Km in South Kora so NBN will be underutilized white elephant in 10 years as all coms go wireless. Operators with less commitment to existing infrastructure like Vodafone, iiNet and TPG are far better positioned to grab 5G and run while Helestra will keep holding onto its telegraph copper.

      Commenter
      DJ77
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:52AM
    • DJ77 5G, and all of the Gs that come after it, will be a huge money-spinner for the providers of mobile services. Users will chew through their monthly data allowances faster than a politician through a travel expense. Any use after that will be at premium prices. The NBN will continue to provide the data services for homes and businesses where the use of mobile data is not required.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:03AM
    • Very technical debate re: copper networks and not as simple as people suggest. Wireless spectrum has many, many, pure Physics problems.

      Did a brief course to understand NBN etc.and things are never that simple as the nay sayers suggest. Just wish Lib and Labor politicians would be forced to do the same courses.

      I'll leave it to the experts but South Korea and Japan are hardly comparable to the problems faced in Australia. Fibre optics has incomparable speed and totally flexible software abilities for the future.

      Commenter
      Harry Rogers
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:29AM
    • Wireless in any capacity (microwave limted spectrum) can never and will never EVER compete with Fibre Optic full spectrum transmission systems.

      1GB per second over 2KM. Now think of the cellular principle. A bubble 2KM radius has to over-lap with other similar bubbles of 2KM radius in order to provide full coverage. Each has to operate at a different frequency in order to not interfere with each other. So you have an ever more limited spectrum. To service multiple clients at a time, for each, the cell needs a new frequency or packet sharing. Sooner or later natural limits are reached as multiple incoming traffic competes with outgoing.

      So your 1GB per second over 2KM will start to look pretty shabby (as is the living experience of 4G in this country) once you start getting people subscribing to it and competing for its limited resources.

      Once the cells (towers) are all in place, how are they going to communicate with other cells in the network? Is it by relay (reducing bandwidth further), or ...... Fibre Optic hub connectivity !! Yes that old White Elephant again !!

      The reality is, Wireless will never EVER compete for diversity and connectivity that Fibre to the premises will and do not be fooled by anyone claiming it will because they are simply wrong.

      Commenter
      Joe the POM
      Location
      Geelong
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:42AM
  • CCL off to another flyer [backwards].....shorters must be all over it now.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:16AM
  • "Market manipulation appears to be rife on the Australian sharemarket"

    Of course it is. There's corruption, price fixing and market manipulation throughout the Australian economy and Australian society. We have elected officials (politicians) and appointed officials (ASIC) who rather then pursue these matters just continue to draw their public wage and let the scams and rip offs continue in some cases right in front of the public's faces.

    Commenter
    Corruption Everywhere
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:15AM
    • Yes i have to admit i'm becoming more and more disheartened with all this market rigging going on.I mean to say i knew things weren't exacting kosher but with the HFT,insider trading,price manipulation, and now the ol window dressers....its looking like we are just suckers...really

      Commenter
      BearshapedBull
      Location
      Mugpunters Lounge
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:34AM
    • der. do you really think fund managers controlling billions would leave anything to chance. its so heavily rigged and full of insider trading its a joke.

      Commenter
      smilingjack
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:47AM
  • So another "you beaut" system for the corporate regulator costing tax-payers $44 million when there's still so much unfinished business.
    "The revelations put renewed pressure on the corporate regulator, which is already facing criticism over its ­failure to rein in Commonwealth Bank's rogue traders, uncover corruption allegations against Leighton ­Holdings, seek a jail sentence against former Gunns ­chairman and convicted insider trader John Gay or ­pursue a case against the David Jones board for suspicious director trades."

    Just an example of throwing good money after bad.

    Commenter
    BearshapedBull
    Location
    Mugpunters Lounge
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:09AM
    • ASIC has fallen into the trap that is set for all regulators in that it has been captured by its clients. It has become more of a cheerleader than a referee.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:21AM
    • Yes, Mitch. ASIC needs to be split into two separate entities. One a Watchdog like the ACCC, another; the bureaucracy that assists and regulates companies. At present, it can’t do both effectively.

      @BsB
      Here is a long article from last Nov, with the litany of its failures.
      http://www.smh.com.au/business/scrutinising-asic-is-it-a-watchdog-or-a-dog-with-no-teeth-20131122-2y1s0.html

      Commenter
      Learner
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:11AM
  • Regular readers on here will remember that I have suggested that the date on which FUM based on NTA's on shares held should be a random date in the last trading week of the month drawn after the end of the month. That would eliminate this market manipulation and fraud on their clients by fund managers. There would be no point bidding up share prices on particular days because they would not know until after the event on what date closing prices would be used . http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/australian-shares-are-being-manipulated-say-researchers-20140414-36m8p.html

    Commenter
    mitch of ACT
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 10:03AM
    • Absolutely! The sooner the better.

      Commenter
      Happy Hippy
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:16AM
    • Your solution to fixing market manipulation is to introduce a lucky dip system? Lol. There also seems to be enough issues with the systems and processes in place now without introducing random systems which would leave everybody in a state of confusion and second guessing.

      Commenter
      Sticks
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:18AM
    • @mitch i agree, or they could base FUM on the monthly average value. That way every day counts

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:25AM
    • @Sticks, "confusion and second-guessing" is the whole idea. The rorters only do what they do because they know it's a sure thing. Remove that certainty and the incentive to manipulate prices is removed.
      @WWWish, using the prices for the whole month could introduce distortions where there are big market movements within a month and leave FUM unrepresentative of the actual market.

      Commenter
      mitch of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:51AM
    • @mitch, you are right but when the market moves up in the month the FUM will be lower than the end of month figure, when the market moves down it will be higher than the end of month figures. It works out and every day still counts.

      Commenter
      Wwwish Lion
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:59AM
    • Mitch, the impact of increased costs aside, the point of regulation is to increase certainty, not decrease it. What Lion proposes would go much further to cutting out rorting as you see it and provide greater certainty. The point about increasing costs is increasing administration which would leave clients worse off, and dealing with client complaints generated through a lack of confusion which you seem to think is a good thing. Your proposal also leaves much more room for errors which may negatively impact clients.

      Commenter
      Sticks
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:10AM
    • Good luck Mitch . I think it's a good Idea.

      ...but how do you stop greed and perhaps teach people simple ethical behavior ? very few role models out there!

      Perhaps also explain to them that the same dog p..s on rich people graves as poor people.

      Commenter
      Harry Rogers
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:51AM
    • @Harry, developing policy is often the easy part. It can take one week to develop the policy and 3 weeks to fine-tune the policy to stop unintended exploitation. Sometimes time does not permit that, eg pink batts & school halls. When you have a bushfire, or GFC, bearing down on you you don't spend 3 weeks developing a response. By then everything has been consumed.

      Commenter
      mich of ACT
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 2:02PM
  • I have made money on Senex, but, as RBC noted, it is a speculative risk.

    Thought about having another lap at the milk bowl that is SXY share listing on Friday at 71c but declined because these times are highly volatile and SXY could easily lose you 20-30% in a day once the winds of panic sweep across the ASX.

    Commenter
    Joe the POM
    Location
    Geelong
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 9:57AM
  • Eds: I am hoping you, or some of the readers may be able to direct me to a worthwhile definition of the following: 1. Retail Investor 2. Sophisticated Investor, and 3. Qualified Investor. Serious responses will be acknowledged.

    Commenter
    Investment Interest
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 9:56AM
    • This link may help
      http://www.afrsmartinvestor.com.au/p/market-intelligence/how_to_be_sophisticated_investor_F6p205BJ2HOMNBxqcj3RXL

      Commenter
      Eddie
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:16AM
    • There are 3 types of investors in Australia:
      1. Retail investor covers the majority of people who invest in the share market. They have less assets than those qualified as a professional investor. Usually the one's who whinge the loudest as they dodge responsibility.
      2. Professional / Wholesale investor - assets are greater than $2.5 m on a nett basis or more than $250K income over 2 years. You need to have this qualified by your accountant. These people have no legal rights against their advisers if the trade goes wrong.
      3. Institutional investors are those who invest on behalf of others and comprise fund managers and hedge funds etc. These people charge you 2% to manage your money and regularly under perform the market by 2%...

      Commenter
      Les
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:31AM
    • 1. Retail Investor : Some who invests in the retail Market or Secondary market.You would be a retail investor. Your superannuation fund or your bank would not. They get access to the wholesale pricing due to the big dollars/volume they deal with.
      2. Sophisticated Investor: A person whom researches their investments without emotion and makes logical, calculated and informed decisions.
      3. Qualified Investor: Someone who is Certified to Invest on another's behalf, ie a Stockbroker or Financial Planer.

      Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-offshore-winds-20140414-36m89.html#ixzz2yoemflsg

      Commenter
      Styx
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:37AM
    • Thanks for all the feedback. I also looked up ASIC. Much appreciated. Like my investments!! Roflmao (not)

      Commenter
      Investment Interest
      Location
      Melb
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:21AM
  • Is it too early to be saying "housing boom" lol

    Commenter
    Michael A
    Location
    Canberra
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 9:46AM
  • Hugo wants to know if the house bubble has burst yet. Please don't make fun of him :p

    Commenter
    Hugo's Mother
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 9:46AM
  • Have house prices crashed yet? bahahahaha! mahahahaha!

    Commenter
    Sydney
    Location
    Property Mogul
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 9:43AM
  • Down down, prices are down!

    Commenter
    Coles
    Location
    Date and time
    April 14, 2014, 9:24AM
    • You do realise (don't you!) that the choice by Coles to use Status Quo as their lead in advertising anchor shows how far behind (still) Australian culture is.

      Status Quo have been irrlevant around the globe for over 20 years now.

      Leo Sayer was a UK one hit wonder, yet in Australia ... a main stream star.

      If Coles were a sophisticated outlet that could keep the holes on their shelves filled and that didn't need nearly 40 year old songs to flog a silly message, just imagine how good they could be !!!

      The first Australian Sainsbury's, or ASDA, or .... Walmart !!

      Considering Australia has so much space compared with the UK, how come the ailes in your supermarkets can hardly fit two passing trolleys ?

      How come all their supermarkets have buckets out catching the drops whenever it rains ... Why can't one of the leading retailers build stores with water-tight roofs?

      Sort yourselves Coles, and stop being Lazy.

      Commenter
      Joe the POM
      Location
      Geelong
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:04AM
    • Down down, they're staying down.

      Commenter
      Hugo
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:06AM
    • Really sick of seeing that catchphrase on this Blog. I get Advertised enough.

      Commenter
      Styx
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:29AM
    • Spot on Joe. Aussie management forever whinging to the government about lazy, overpaid aussie workers, that they need overseas skills (see cheap), removal of regs, etc. Foreign retailer comes in, pays same rents, same wages, has same regs to obey, Aldi, Topshop, Zara, etc, etc and wipes the floor with the Aussie managed companies, over and over and over again. What does that say about the constant loud whinging coming from the big end of town and through their puppets, the LNP and various conservative think tanks?

      Commenter
      Jim
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:30AM
    • When Coles says prices are down, that is where they stay! "Gifts" Everywhere!

      Commenter
      DR
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 10:40AM
    • @Joe the Pom,
      i seem to recall ARGOS running an add in the UK about 10 years ago also with status quo.
      'whatever you want, whatever you need'

      Commenter
      brian
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:15AM
    • That worked out well for them didn't it.

      Why sit with a ticket waiting (like at Medicare) for your number to come up when you can buy it cheaper, have it delivered to your door for free, and save time.

      Another company beyond its sell by date that Status Quo has not aided.

      Commenter
      Joe the POM
      Location
      Geelong
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 11:50AM
    • i think Argos are still going in some form.
      as for status quo, i believe the London 2012 olympics used a song of theirs.

      Commenter
      brian
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 1:15PM
    • joe the pom
      leo sayer had a string of hits.
      status quo are still touring and still making mega bucks playing arena shows.

      Commenter
      smilingjack
      Location
      Date and time
      April 14, 2014, 3:33PM
Comments are now closed