JavaScript disabled. Please enable JavaScript to use My News, My Clippings, My Comments and user settings.

If you have trouble accessing our login form below, you can go to our login page.

If you have trouble accessing our login form below, you can go to our login page.

Business

Live

This page updates automatically

Markets Live: Shares enter bull territory

Date

The sharemarket ends higher for a ninth straight day, led by a rally in the big banks, with CBA hitting a new all-time high.

Sort posts by:

That's all for today, folks. Thanks for reading this blog and positng your comments.

Here's our evening wrap of today's session.

What you need to know:

Markets

  • ASX closed 1.1% higher at a new 21-month high
  • The AUD has edged up to $US1.0455, 77.74 euro cents and 94.8 yen
  • The Nikkei is 0.3% higher, while Shanghai stocks are down 0.1%
  • Spot gold is trading up 0.4% at $US1661.45,
  • WTI oil is 0.4% higher at $US96.79
  • S&P futures are minimally higher

Overnight

  • US Case-Shiller 20-city house price index for November; Forecast: 5.2% rise
  • US Consumer Confidence in January; Forecast: 65.1

Local events tomorrow

  • Perth - Wesfarmers releases its second quarter sales results
  • Sydney - First day of the two-day Hastie Group second creditors’ meetings in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Adelaide
  • Perth - Australian Property Institute releases its residential property outlook for 2013

 

Global market are rallying mainly because worst-case scenarios for economies have been avoided, Westpac chief interest rate strategist Damien McColough says:

  • It’s really a removal about the real catastrophe or disaster premium that has been in market rates for some time, As opposed to a confident that the [global economies] are growing strongly, it’s more a confident belief that the worst-case scenario has been averted.
  • It’s not like as if Europe is going to surge ahead in growth or America is going to go well above the 2 per cent per annum growth, but it means the expectation is that the euro is not going to collapse and there is going to be wholesale defaults from Spain or one of the other economies that has been under pressure.
  • So that causes equities to remove some of the negatives and bonds to lose some of their expensive pricing.

The Australian sharemarket, together with global equities, has risen by more than 20 per cent in the past six months - usually the definition of a bull market, Bell Potter Securities research director Peter Quinton notes.

But Quinton says using such a definition at this time was "a little bit aggressive" for the local sharemarket:

  • Having said that, I think there are very solid fundamental underpinnings to those 20 per cent risings.
  • Risks are never zero and a lot of the risks that people are worried about are still there, but they are very much diminished. So it would completely untrue that the risks we’ve been worried about have disappeared but they are a lot less today.
  • The brutal reality is ... there’s still risks out there but anybody who has been bearish about the stock market for the past six months has been proved dramatically wrong.

The market's gains were led by the financials sector, which added 1.3 per cent. Consumer stocks did well too, with consumer staples rising 1.5 per cent and consumer discretionary up 1.4 per cent.

Other defensive sectors such as health and telco posted strong gains, rising 2.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.

Materials underpeformed adding just 0.2 per cent, while the gold sectors slumped 2.6 per cent.

The sharemarket has ended sharply higher, chalking up gains for a ninth straight session. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index jumped 53.8 points, or 1.1 per cent, higher at 4889.0, while the broader All Ords added 52 points, or 1.1 per cent, to 4910.9.

The Australian dollar got a confidence boost today, shooting up near four-year peaks versus the yen and rising against the greenback and the euro as a jump in business confidence underpinned the currency.

The dollar advanced to $US1.0444 in late trade, from $US1.0412 early, having touched one-month lows of $US1.0384 on Monday. It gained momentum on the euro, rising to 77.62 euro cents from 77.17 euro cents earlier today.

It made bigger strides against the yen and was last seen flirting with a fresh four-year peak of 95.08 yen scaled last week.

The catalyst for the broad Aussie move higher was a sharp bounce in business confidence in December, according to a private survey, thanks in part to lower interest rates and better news offshore.

The reading gave investors an excuse to modestly pare the chances of further easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Markets pricing now implies a one-in-four chance of a rate cut to a record low 2.75 per cent when the central bank holds its next policy meeting on February 5, from a near one-in-three chance of a cut.

The poor weather has done little to stop today’s domestic confidence pushing our market along in what is proving to be a strong uptrend globally, says CMC Markets trader Ben Taylor:

  • Locally today we are seeing a lot of defensive buying taking our market higher with large stakes being taken across the finance and healthcare sectors.
  • While it seems like the market is full steam ahead there are a number of non-believers warning that our market is vulnerable to correction as stocks are already pricing in an earnings recovery.
  • Personally I believe the risk on sentiment is too hot at the moment to stop this run, we will need to see a clear change in sentiment before I would sell risk in this current environment.
  • Our business confidence read today has also given investors reason to extend their long positions. It seems that a lower interest rate environment is starting to improve confidence among the Australian business community, mix this in with the China rebound and we have a sharp rise in confidence.

Macquarie Equities Ltd has entered into an enforceable undertaking with ASIC after the corporate regulator found compliance failures in Macquarie Group's retail stock division.

Macquarie Equities agreed to a review of its Macquarie Private Wealth business, including its licence risk and operating model and systems and its legal and regulatory obligations, the corporate regulator said this afternoon.

ASIC was concerned that the responsibility for compliance sat within the Macquarie Perivate Wealth business and Macquarie Wealth has taken steps to integrate compliance within and reporting to the Macquarie Group-wide compliance function.

'‘Our surveillance found Macquarie Private Wealth fell significantly short of this mark, so ASIC took action,’’ ASIC chairman Greg Medcraft said. ‘‘This is a major EU (enforceable undertaking) affecting one of the wealth industry’s biggest players, which we believe will rectify some serious compliance deficiencies.’’

It requires Macquarie Equities to develop and implement, with the oversight of an independent expert, a plan to rectify any licence risk management and compliance deficiencies.

No longer can the banks rely on that hoary old chestnut of ''high funding costs'' to pass off their failure to match the successive cuts in the official cash rate, Michael West writes in today's most-read business article:

Covered bonds have brought down bank costs even further. In a confidential note to its institutional clients, Westpac describes the fall in wholesale funding costs over the past year as ''extraordinary''.

Margins are fatter than ever, veritably bulging, and there is scant proof that borrowers are getting their grimy fingers on a single cent of it. It's a good thing for shareholders though, some cautious at the listless growth in credit.

The story that the banks spin to their big clients, as opposed to the rest of us, is about as similar as the Chinese and Japanese perspective on who owns the Senkaku Islands.

Here's the whole article

Cane crops in parts of central Queensland have been ravaged by torrential rain, leading growers to seek financial support from the government.

Industry body Canegrowers says it’s too early to determine the full extent of the damage but it appears the Bundaberg, Maryborough and Childers areas were worst hit.

The organisation is in talks with the state and federal governments about support for individual growers who have been significantly impacted. The nation’s overall cane production is not expected to be significantly affected.

Citi identifies 10 stocks that may surprise this reporting season.

On the upside, it believes, Myer, Santos and McMillan Shakespeare will do better than consensus. Those that face downside risk including Leighton Holdings, Cochlear, as it faces the roll-off of foreign exchange hedge gains, David Jones, Woodside Petroleum and Origin Energy.

In its report, Citi says: "If we're right and the reporting season is reasonable, it should give further impetus to the market, though it has run hard lately, and partly on some encouraging signs about the results.

But we still expect the market to go higher through the year, with our ASX200 target of 5200 for end 2013, as moderate earnings growth returns in FY14."

Read more in Adele Ferguson's Profit season may spur market rally

There were encouraging signs in the latest business survey but really it is still early days and the improvements are yet to bloom into a fully-fledged recovery for the sector, says CommSec economist Sebastian Savanth:

  • Business confidence did bounce back into positive territory and recorded the most optimistic reading in five months but that’s as far as the good news goes.
  • Not only were business conditions still decidedly weak, but trading conditions actually deteriorated despite the substantial rate cuts late last year.

With the ASX200 on track for its nineth straight day of gains, here's a look at how the rest of the region is performing today:

  • Japan(Nikkei): +0.7%
  • Shanghai: -0.1%
  • Taiwan: +0.7%
  • South Korea: +0.8%
  • Singapore: flat
  • New Zealand: +0.2%

Some more on insurers, from an earlier article by Adele Ferguson - Flooding puts spotlight on insurance stocks:

The latest Queensland floods, just two years after a similar disaster cost the country $6 billion, is a chilling reminder that investing in insurance companies is risky business.

QBE, IAG and Suncorp will release their profit results between February 20 and 26, with the expectation that they will issue a statement well before then on estimates of likely volumes and claims costs relating to the floods. Suncorp has already arranged a 100-strong team to manage the expected claims influx.

The main weight on the market today comes, not unexpectedly, from the insurers:

  • QBE: -2.4%
  • IAG: -1.5%
  • Suncorp: -2.7%

BHP statement on the floods:

Significant rainfall across the Bowen Basin has impacted roads and other services. We are still assessing the impacts to our operations across the Bowen Basin. All sites are operating and we are working to return to normal operations.

Some more on banks: Australia’s banking sector has regularly been compared to Canada’s banks, but this comparison is likely to sit uncomfortably following the surprise credit rating downgrade over the bulk of the Canadian sector earlier today.

Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded several big Canadian banks, cutting the ratings on five banks and one credit union by one notch. The downgrade was triggered by Moody’s concerns of the Canadian banks’ exposure to heavily indebted consumers and elevated home prices.

Among the Canadian banks impacted were Toronto-Dominion and Bank of Nova Scotia which are now each rated "Aa2". Bank of Montreal, CIBC and National Bank of Canada were cut to "Aa3". The ratings were all given stable outlooks.

This compares to Australia’s big four banks which each carry a "Aa2" rating, among some of the highest rated banks in the world.

‘‘The Canadian banks’ downgrades will inevitably turn some attention towards Moody’s ratings of the Australian banks,’’ says National Australia Bank credit strategist Michael Bush.

However, Bush points to a report issued by Moody’s just last month noting Australia's major banks are ‘‘well positioned to withstand significant loan losses from any unanticipated economic downturn’’.

The ASX200 is now up 1 per cent on relatively high volumes, with the banks and Telstra leading the charge.

Local investors are catching up with gains made on world markets since last Friday, says IG Markets analyst Stan Shamu:

‘‘It’s quite encouraging to see the market put in such a performance,’’ he says. ‘‘But, the worrying factor is the defensive stocks are outperforming the general market, which generally points toward some sort of caution or lack of confidence.’’

Another defensive stocks extending its rally is Telstra, which is up 1.3 per cent to a multi-year high of $4.65.

Some are wondering why CBA shares are being driven ever higher. Here's what reader willo suggests:

Bell Potter buy rating and updated price target to $68?
BA is increasing its FY dividend payout ratio to 70% to 80%
EPS and DPS are being upgraded due to rising NIM, falling bad debts, and better equity markets (Colonial)
On FY14 CBA’s yields 9.00% pre-tax vs. 2.70% for a 3yr AGB and sub 4.00% for a TD.
Our forecast for CBA’s FY14 dividend is 384c, with risks to the upside. Putting that on a 5.00%ff yield = a CBA price target of $76.80.

The big banks are driving the market higher, with Westpac up 1 per cent, ANZ rising 1.5 per cent and NAB 1.3 per cent higher.

CBA is extending its record run, adding another 1.4 per cent to hit an all-time high of $64.28 - making the bank worth $103.8 billion.

"The major lead is in the banks," says IG Markets strategist Evan Lucas. "The lead that we have been seeing is that yield hunters are continuing to look for that quasi-bond play and that would be the main reason why we're seeing them jump in."

Australia's biggest bank is now worth $103.8 billion.

Australia's biggest bank is now worth $103.8 billion. Photo: Michel OSullivan

Nine Entertainment has been saved from collapse with a Federal Court judge giving the final tick of approval to a $3.4 billion recapitalisation scheme.

Justice Peter Jacobson sanctioned the scheme during a hearing this morning after creditors voted overwhelmingly in favour of the plan last week.

The judge said that considering most creditors had supported the scheme during the meeting and that an expert report had approved it, he would allow the plan to go ahead.

‘‘The scheme is one which appears to be fair and reasonable,’’ he said.

The recapitalisation scheme, which is due to be implemented in five business days, formally ends CVC Asia-Pacific’s stewardship of Nine and draws a line under its $1.9 billion investment loss.

Tokyo stocks have opened lower with investors cautious after falls on Wall Street, a pause in the yen’s decline and ahead of corporate earnings reports by major Japanese firms.

The Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which lost 0.9 per cent on Monday, fell another 73.30 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 10,751.01 at the start.

The benchmark index was likely to trade in a narrow range on Tuesday as it continued to consolidate after recent gains, traders said.

‘‘With US markets mostly lower and the yen showing little net movement from the prior day’s close, stocks are likely to be range-bound after first exhausting the selling pressure seen on Monday,’’ said SMBC Nikko Securities general manager of equities Hiroichi Nishi.

Investors are also cautiously awaiting earnings results by major Japanese companies later this week.

Jamie Freed tweeted the following:

Patersons analyst Andrew Harrington on BHP's disclosure on floods: "It seems short of Pt Hedland being nuked nothing is material to $BHP"

 

The federal government will open an Austrade office in Myanmar (Burma) this year to help Australian companies capitalise on business opportunities in the newly-emerging southeast Asian nation.

The Austrade office in Yangon (Rangoon), the country’s commercial capital, will eventually be staffed by a trade commissioner and locally-sourced business development managers.

It’s the latest step by the government to renew ties with Myanmar as the nation moves slowly toward democracy after decades of military rule and international isolation.

It’s a miserable start to an election year when both sides of politics have already effectively ruled out doing anything substantial to help ease the transition from a reliance on commodities investment for economic growth, writes BusinessDay's Michael Pascoe.

Such is the cost of worshipping the surplus god above all.

It might explain why a growing list of past and present Reserve Bank board members are telling Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey that their fiscal mantra is wrong, that stimulating the economy can’t just be left to the RBA.

Present RBA board members Heather Ridout and John Edwards and past members Warwick McKibbin, Bob Gregory and Bernie Fraser have been quoted in various places in recent days more or less recommending that the federal government seize the opportunity to borrow at low rates to invest in civil infrastructure. They’ve effectively demonstrated how ideologically hidebound our big-picture politics have become, strapped to the surplus mast.

The RBA types are flying in the face of the orthodoxy presented by Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson, presenting the government’s line, and the Abbott/Hockey show over the weekend.

Click here for the full story.

Business confidence has risen sharply following financial crisis lows of the month before, but business conditions remain soft and forward indicators of demand are weak, the National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey shows.

The temporary aversion of the US ‘‘fiscal cliff’’ and more positive data about the Chinese data, coupled with the Reserve Bank’s 25 basis points interest rate cut last month, saw NAB’s monthly business confidence index lift to 3 in December, from minus 9 the month before.

The monthly business conditions index improved from minus 6 in November to minus 4 in December, as conditions remained particularly challenging in the wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction sectors, the bank said in a statement this morning.

Mining magnate Gina Rinehart's main company has taken a substantial shareholding in Melbourne oil and gas minnow Lakes Oil.

In a purchase that was announced by Lakes Oil to the Australian Stock Exchange this morning, the company said the bulk a $6.3 million notes issue had been bought by a wholly owned subsidiary of Ms Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting.

The subsidiary, which was not named in the statement, now holds 18.6 per cent of Lakes Oil.
As part of the deal, Ms Rinehart's ally Professor Ian Plimer has been appointed as a non-executive director of Lakes Oil.

Samsung Electronics said today that its US subsidiary had acquired NeuroLogica, a maker of computed tomography (CT) machines, in its latest push into the medical equipment business to take on the likes of General Electric and Philips.

Samsung Electronics America has fully acquired Massachusetts-based start-up NeuroLogica for an undisclosed amount, the South Korean company said in a statement. NeuroLogica, which was established in 2004, manufactures portable CT scanners.

The head of Samsung's consumer electronics division had told Reuters earlier this month that the company was seeking to grow its medical device unit by adding MRI scanners and CT machines, and the company was open to making acquisitions.

The economy will need a new growth engine when mining investment finally peaks, but the strong Australian dollar could hamper the central bank’s efforts to spur non-resource sectors into action, an independent forecaster says.

Deloitte Access Economics expects the massive surge in engineering construction to develop new mines and infrastructure will peak in late 2013, and that work will mean a 30 per cent gain in mining output over the next five years.

However, Deloitte Access Economics economist Chris Richardson says this is only a small part of the economy, particularly in terms of jobs.

‘‘That’s what lower interest rates will help to achieve with cheap credit projected to sprinkle some fairy dust over the Australia industrial landscape.’’

He expects housing construction will ‘‘strut its stuff’’ in 2013, while the recovery in retail, albeit from a fairly poor base, might get a second wind from the second half of the year.

However, while these interest-rate-sensitive sectors may get a lift, it is less clear that the ‘‘dollar-dependent’’ sector will do the same.

‘‘The Australian dollar is still giving manufacturing a Chinese burn, and the news also remains modest in both tourism and international education,’’ Mr Richardson says.

Chinese majority-owned Yancoal has closed two of its Queensland coal mines after heavy rainfall in the wake of ex-cyclone Oswald.

At the Middlemount open cut mine, jointly owned with Peabody Energy, a levee bank has been breached and water has flowed into the pit.

Yancoal told the ASX this morning production was likely to be impacted for at least three weeks.

Yancoal's Yarrabee mine was closed on the weekend but normal operations are expected to resume this week.

Yancoal shares were down 0.5c at 92.5c in early trade today.

Shares in Sundance Resources have gone into a trading halt this morning ahead of a very important week for the iron ore aspirant.

A protracted takeover bid by Chinese group Hanlong is scheduled to pass a key milestone on Thursday when paperwork confirming Hanlong's financial backing from the China Development Bank is supposed to arrive at the Perth offices of Sundance.

The takeover has been delayed several times on the back of Hanlong's inability to secure the funding, and the process suffered another blow in December when the CDB sought to conduct a review of Sundance's African iron ore project and its mining permits before confiming its financial support.

Insurance major Suncorp has so far received around 4,500 claims from storms and flooding across Queensland and NSW.

The insurer, which is also behind brands such as AAMI and GIO, said it expected claims numbers to rise through the week with flood levels across parts of both states yet to peak.

The insurer suggested it had plenty of financial headroom before flood payouts start to crimp earnings. Suncorp said its allowance for large natural hazards in the 2013 financial year was $520 million. It has so far used just a fraction of this in the six months to end-December with total natural hazard claims running at $147 million.

Australian consumers are cutting back on debt and increasing their use of debit cards as they become more cautious about spending and borrowing, a survey has found.

Expectations for household debt were at 18 per cent for the March quarter, a fall from 22 and 26 per cent for the last two quarters, the Dun & Bradstreet’s Consumer Credit Expectations Survey, released today, found.

The national Newspoll survey of about 1200 people this month is reflected in recent economic data, which has seen Australians adopt a ‘‘balance sheet repair’’ mentality of paying off debt, increasing savings and paring down on discretionary spending.

‘‘Overall, we’ve witnessed a sizeable shift in the spending behaviour of the Australian consumer. There is a greater degree of consideration being applied to each spending decision and a greater focus on spending within our means,’’ Dun & Bradstreet’s chief executive Gareth Jones said in a statement.

The sharemarket has opened higher, following on from last week's rally. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 has added 36.5 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 4871.7, while the broader All Ords is up 36.1 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 4895.

As of 7am AEDT, insurers have received some 6100 claims for losses in Queensland from the floods, the Insurance Council of Australia says.

Those claims involve insured losses estimated at $72 million, with the tally now "rising rapidly", according to the ICA's head of corporate affairs, Campbell Fuller.

So far, insurers are yet to receive many claims relating to losses in NSW from the storm.

Moody’s has downgraded the long-term credit ratings of six large Canadian banks, citing concerns over record high Canadian consumer debt and soaring home prices.

Moody’s Investors Service on Monday cut the long-term ratings by one notch of the Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, Caisse centrale Desjardins, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank.

The ratings of the six banks now range between AA1 and AA3, but they still rank among the top-rated financial institutions in the world.

Lend Lease will be a stock to watch today with the construction group winning a $364.52 million contract to build 3500 student apartments across England.

The agreement with privately-owned developer Manor Property Group is also expected to include the construction of an additional 36,500 student accommodation units around the United Kingdom, Lend Lease said on Tuesday.

However, the company has not put a value on that work.The first 3,500 units will be built in the cities of Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield and Hull.

Work would begin in 2013 and was due to be completed in 2015, Lend Lease said in a statement.

Quotes Search

Sort comments by:
  • "Today’s downgrade of the Canadian banks reflects our ongoing concerns that Canadian banks’ exposure to the increasingly indebted Canadian consumer and elevated housing prices leaves them more vulnerable to unpredictable downside risks facing the Canadian economy than in the past.”

    Australian banks are worse. They doubled up on their housing bet.

    Commenter
    Allan
    Location
    Prahran
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 5:25PM
  • 11:44

    Michael, can I have each member of government sign a guarantee for the borrowed funds or will I have to come to the rescue at a later stage and also pay them a pension while I am at it.

    Commenter
    Opinion Only
    Location
    Melbourne
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 4:16PM
  • Looks like someone struck a nerve with the neighbourhood bears 8-|

    Commenter
    El Toro
    Location
    Barcelona
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 4:10PM
    • I don't see any bears. Just posters who expect good manners.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 4:22PM
    • Fish. Barrel. Gun. Bang.

      Commenter
      El Toro
      Location
      Barcelona
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 4:41PM
  • hmmm has this government finally found a way of wrecking the banks as well, 'covered bonds' for some reason I keep thinking America and $10 houses.

    Commenter
    tell me it aint so
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 3:32PM
  • It's funny how there are so many Doomsayers. Whenever they come out.
    If the bottom of the market in 2008 it's all tyhe end of the World stuff and now the market is recovering and Blue chips like CBA keep getting stronger they try and say it will crash????

    Well I nevre listed to those F... Wits and never will.

    I purchased CBA at $25 in 2008 and now sitting on 150% profit with incresing dividends tax free......

    Keep on winging if that's what puts a smile on your face!!!!

    Commenter
    James.P
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 2:18PM
    • Oh dear, we seem to have upset someone. Calm down, better for your health and you will survive to spend your earnings.

      Commenter
      Another Grump
      Location
      Melb
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:51PM
    • "Success" has made you extremely angry. I wonder why.

      Commenter
      cranberry
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:54PM
    • F... Wits? Charming turn of phrase you have.

      CBA 30% overpriced, just like property. Added to shorts at $65.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:55PM
    • Congratulations on buying the low. But what stocks did you hold prior to the crash? And what did you pay for them?

      Commenter
      geoff
      Location
      burraneer
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:56PM
    • Why don't you invest in a dictionary while you're on a roll. ?

      Commenter
      The Oracle
      Location
      Oberon
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 3:24PM
    • Thanks James

      It is a good thing to have a balance of optimism and pessimism. This blog has a balance and includes those on the fence at times.

      What led you to invest in CBA in 2008?

      - govt guaranteed deposits
      - ff div with good yield
      - increase dominance in mortgage market due to collapse of competition

      Any others or did you just try your luck?

      Commenter
      Opinion Only
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 3:59PM
  • Australian real estate prices have a long, long, long, way to go to reach the lofty valuations of Hong Kong real estate.

    Still, half the world’s population live in Asia and most people would love to live in and buy Australian real estate. It’s clean and beautiful.

    If economically the 21st century will belong to Asian peoples then Australian real estate owners look to be a major beneficiary. The AUD is a bit expensive being supported by large economies debasing their own currencies.

    Real estate booms always begin in high end Sydney real estate. Sydney has done nothing since 2003 but some record prices are now occurring at the high end. It’s just a trickle at the moment but when the AUD returns to historical levels, Australian real estate will look more enticing.

    Australia is looking at economic problems? Just turn on the immigration tap.

    Not a problem, mate! Walang problema, pare!

    Commenter
    Santiago
    Location
    Philippines
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 1:52PM
    • Immigration has been going full bore throughout that period and Sydney has gotten more crowded and jammed and still the Sydney property market has been going nowhwere since 2003. Honkers prices is a special case inapplicable to a country like Australia and should it ever be engineered here, would lead, quite rightly to revolution..

      Clearly, Santiago, there are other factors that matter more.

      Commenter
      St James
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:55PM
    • Hong Kong also due for another 40% crash.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:57PM
  • So what happens when the All Ords hits 5000pts do I put my Super into cash and wait to see how far it plunges before I pick the bottom and reinvest? I need free advice as all my Financial Advisor has said is "sign here and give me your money". Advice is------------?

    Commenter
    DHT
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 1:11PM
    • markets will follow the US crisis... if they reach another gridlock then get worried and move to cash otherwise there is a rally underway in share markets currently with no signs of weakness...

      Commenter
      A Bodhi Nuisance
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 1:49PM
    • Stop losses or sell CFD's to the number of shares you hold in your super You'll only need about 7% of your super balance and will stay neutral until you buy back the CFD's.

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:26PM
  • I am starting to think the market has been taken over by Goldfish !.

    Commenter
    Another Grump
    Location
    Melb
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 12:50PM
  • The share market reminds me of 2007. It seems to rise half a percent every day.

    Commenter
    geoff
    Location
    buuraneer
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 12:36PM
    • 2007 is not the comparison. It should be reminding you of the early 1990's, the last time we started the rebound from a cataclysmic financial market shock. As I said in my first posting early last year, consumers will only keep their wallets in their pockets for so long, and 5 or 6 years is about the mark. If you ask around there are signs everywhere of things rebounding, and the market is a forward looking indicator. The wealth being created will now reinforce consumers' perceptions that the worst is over, and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. This time next year it will be hard to imagine there was a time when all the news was negative and airtime was given to nutters calling down plagues from the heavens. And we are also seeing the seeds of the next cycle of property price growth. I'm not saying the boom starts tomorrow, because the equity markets will still remain volatile around an upward trend for maybe the next year, but this is how the cycle always starts: the market rises, confidence returns, wealth increases and people begin to think about moving money out of the market into property.

      Commenter
      Balanced
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 1:48PM
    • It might seem like that however Oct 15th 2009 ASX 4859. So in over 3 years we have not gone that far yet

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:29PM
    • You have been calling for the next property boom for three years now.

      Unemployment rising, emergency interest rates, property prices falling.

      The biggest falls are ahead.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 3:00PM
    • I think people are getting a little ahead of themselves already.

      Commenter
      The Oracle
      Location
      Oberon
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 3:27PM
    • "You've been calling the next property boom for 3 years now".

      My first post here was about one year ago, so that claim is about as accurate as everything else you write. And even today, let alone 12 months ago, I am not saying there is a boom coming tomorrow. I was quite explicit about that, but alas posts cannot be dumbed down enough for some. I am simply pointing out that the seeds of the next cycle of property price growth are being planted now, by rising confidence and wealth, as they are at this point in every cycle.

      Commenter
      Balanced
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 4:26PM
    • I pretty sure you need it dumbed down for yourself. You have been all over the property blogs for 3 years calling the next boom. There are no seed of the next boom, the bust is yet to be in full swing. NY metro crashed back to 2001 levela and so will Sydney and Melbourne.

      Figured out the difference between georgist and socialist yet?

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 5:03PM
  • What the hell is happening with CBA. The price is way beyond its value. I cant believe that people are just chasing dividends. It must fall off the cliff soon.

    Commenter
    Another Grump
    Location
    Melb
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 12:03PM
    • Bell Potter buy rating and updated price target to $68?
      BA is increasing its FY dividend payout ratio to 70% to 80%
      EPS and DPS are being upgraded due to rising NIM, falling bad debts, and better equity markets (Colonial)
      On FY14 CBA’s yields 9.00% pre-tax vs. 2.70% for a 3yr AGB and sub 4.00% for a TD.
      Our forecast for CBA’s FY14 dividend is 384c, with risks to the upside. Putting that on a 5.00%ff yield = a CBA price target of $76.80.

      Commenter
      willo
      Location
      syd
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:22PM
    • Adding to shorts.

      Commenter
      Allan
      Location
      Prahran
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:34PM
    • To quote someone or other, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"!

      Commenter
      The sage of...
      Location
      Omaha
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 1:09PM
    • coming up to a div ex date... plus US crisis on hold and rating upgrades accompanied by a likely slightly higher than expected div

      The view in the market is that buying CBA is paying for quality recurring earnings without the surprises that some other banks come out with (eg write downs in US / UK)... that this pov has been bandied around at late and that there are no major sellers is driving the price higher...

      Commenter
      A Bodhi Nuisance
      Location
      the remains of a formerly more serious commentator
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 1:41PM
    • Only because your not holding it

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:21PM
    • by rating upgrades in my earlier post I meant analyst upgrades / price targets rising

      Commenter
      A Bodhi Nuisance
      Location
      opps
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:46PM
    • Messing your shorts

      Commenter
      Richard
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 3:57PM
  • I don't believe. I see bulls, many more bulls.

    Commenter
    Oreo Psychic
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 11:57AM
  • Ding dong ding dong. AO now 4900.
    AO now 4900. Ding dong.

    Commenter
    Magoo
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 11:50AM
    • If it continues at this rate we'll see it at 5000 before the end of the week.

      Commenter
      JJ
      Location
      NSW
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 1:44PM
  • Pathetic market. The blue chips have only rallied 25 % in the last six months. URGH.

    Commenter
    Jonaze the Joyous
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 11:21AM
    • Make that 27%.

      Commenter
      geoff
      Location
      burraneer
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:22PM
  • What is happening now and the disasters like Sandy in the USA, blizzards in Europe, the return of drought and fires to south eastern Australia, etc, is precisely why I steered clear of the so called "cheap" QBE shares last year. You may not realise it, but from a physics 101 point of view, a one degree rise in the average global temperature is a huge total increase in atmospheric energy and therefore the realise of that energy in the atmosphere, is going to power a lot more extreme weather events, from floods, cyclones and tornadoes, to droughts and blizzards. Not good propects for insurers or people who are bull headed and irresponsible.

    I hope you were paying alttention last year when I said CSL, COH and RMD are that extraordinarily rare thing in Australia, great, well managed companies - with a future.

    Cheerio.

    Commenter
    Catch 22
    Location
    QBE, to be or not to be?
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 11:07AM
    • I asume by "bull headed and irresponsible" you mean those who dont agree with you. Less proselytising please.

      Commenter
      Another Grump
      Location
      Melb
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:06PM
    • The other side of that argument is that insurers will have a strong argument to jack up their premiums whenever they want...

      However QBE has a lot of money in fixed interest earning very little right now (especially in the US). This doesn't look like changing in the short term... given this it is hard to see a strong profit rebound anytime soon.

      Cheap for a reason might be a better way of describing it...

      Commenter
      A Bodhi Nuisance
      Location
      the new and slightly less grumpy 'Seriously...'
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:32PM
    • Nobody should doubt that the science of what is exactly happening is very difficult and full of unknowns. But on the other hand nobody should spit in the face of one of the most fundamental theories of all science - thermodynamics - as do the doubters, many irresponsible politicians, the heavily funded think tanks, conpiracy theorists and those who believe they have a personal hotline to the Almighty..

      Commenter
      Catch 22
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:45PM
    • People will always need insurance. Higher payouts = higher premiums. If anything the insurers can profit by upping premiums more than the increase in payouts, using natural disasters as an excuse.

      Commenter
      Davo
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:50PM
    • Ah yes the laws of thermodynamcis, the very laws the doomsayers have such a tenuous hold on. I fully expect to be out of the market by the time the laws of thermodynamcis kicks in, in fact I will have been dead about 30,000 years before any impact of thermodynamics will be felt.
      Allan have to agree - put it on the short list.

      Commenter
      Another Grump
      Location
      Melb
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:59PM
    • You do realise that pumping billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere must, by the said laws of physics, have an effect. That is inescapable. The devil still being worked out is how severe, how quickly and in what ways this effect wll work out.

      Commenter
      Catch 22
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:14PM
  • OVERALL POINTS
    Nickname / Times Played / Accum Weekly Place Points / Points for place / PLACE POINTS (Combined - Points off and weekly accumulated points for place) / OVERALL PLACE

    Seriously... / 8 / 41 / 12 / 22 / 1
    Another Grump / 8 / 29 / 10 / 19 / 2
    Catch 22 / 8 / 34 / 11 / 18 / 3
    Oragelo / 2 / 11 / 6 / 17 / 4
    Fletch the Diplomat / 2 / 8 / 5 / 17 / 4
    Snidery Mark / 8 / 27 / 9 / 15 / 6
    Oracle / 1 / 8 / 5 / 13 / 7
    Liberator / 4 / 16 / 8 / 12 / 7
    The New Black / 7 / 12 / 7 / 8 / 9
    Dan / 2 / 7 / 3 / 8 / 10
    Jonaze / 1 / 4 / 2 / 5 / 11
    Space Hippy / 1 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 12
    Competitors = 12

    Two weeks to go.

    Commenter
    Snidery Mark
    Location
    Port Stephens
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 10:31AM
    • Snide - I always get bets for COB Fri early!
      So put me down for this closing week at 4926.

      Commenter
      Liberator
      Location
      SEQLD
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 4:32PM
  • RUNNING BALANCE
    Nickname / Times Played / Accum Amt Off / Average Amt Off / Points for place

    Fletch the Diplomat / 2 / 23.944 / 11.972 / 12
    Oragelo / 2 / 37.795 / 18.898 / 11
    Seriously... / 8 / 156.585 / 19.573 / 10
    Another Grump / 8 / 169.029 / 21.129 / 9
    Oracle / 1 / 26.848 / 26.848 / 8
    Catch 22 / 8 / 266.528 / 33.316 / 7
    Snidery Mark / 8 / 340.565 / 42.571 / 6
    Dan / 2 / 152.341 / 76.171 / 5
    Liberator / 4 / 313.543 / 78.386 / 4
    Jonaze / 1 / 84.152 / 84.152 / 3
    Space Hippy / 1 / 85.152 / 85.152 / 2
    The New Black / 7 / 735.703 / 105.100 / 1
    Competitors = 12

    Commenter
    Snidery Mark
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 10:17AM
  • WEEK 8 25/01/2013

    Nickname / Prediction / Amt off / Rank / Accum. Off / Weekly Points / Accum Points

    Seriously... / 4825 / 10.174 / 1 / 156.585 / 5 / 41
    Fletch the Diplomat / 4820 / 15.174 / 2/ 23.944 / 4 / 8
    Another Grump / 4815 / 20.174 / 3 / 169.029 / 3 / 29
    Catch 22 / 4780 / 55.174 / 4 / 266.528/ 2/ 34
    Snidery Mark / 4765 / 70.174 / 5 / 340.565/ 1 / 27

    Competitors = 5
    AT C.O.B. on 25/01/2013 4835.174

    NO NOTES - 2 Tables to follow.

    2 weeks left

    Commenter
    Snidery Mark
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 10:13AM
  • Good morning , today a thousand csl shares sold through Etrade but the abbreviation next to it was not ASX rather CXA, can anyone shed some light on that? thanks if anyone can

    Commenter
    what does this mean, CXA?
    Location
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 10:12AM
    • its the other exchange chi x

      Commenter
      A Bodhi Nuisance
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 10:34AM
    • I'd say it's Chi-X Australia (http://au.chi-x.com/), the "new" competitor to the ASX.

      Commenter
      JJ
      Location
      NSW
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 10:36AM
    • Chi-X Australia - their homepage has a list of trading participants.
      They pay a third party commission to the ASX (see the ASX's rules).

      Commenter
      Snidery Mark
      Location
      Port Stephens
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 10:37AM
    • The CX portion suggests a crossing of some description. Often when a broker has two clients willing to buy and sell the same amount of shares, the broker will transact with itself on behalf of the clients. Not entirely sure but that would be my educated guess.

      Commenter
      Luke16
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 10:41AM
    • thanks guys,

      Commenter
      thanks guys
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 10:46AM
  • SPIs from previous day were 31 but watch at 10.10am

    Commenter
    Jonaze
    Location
    Sydney
    Date and time
    January 29, 2013, 10:09AM
    • I am shocked by the events of 10:10am. Sigh...there's always tomorrow.

      Commenter
      cranberry
      Location
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 12:05PM
    • Gee it's nice to be wrong

      Commenter
      Jonaze
      Location
      Sydney
      Date and time
      January 29, 2013, 2:32PM
Comments are now closed