That's all for today, folks. Thanks for reading this blog and positng your comments.
Here's our evening wrap of today's session.
What you need to know:
Markets
- ASX closed 1.1% higher at a new 21-month high
- The AUD has edged up to $US1.0455, 77.74 euro cents and 94.8 yen
- The Nikkei is 0.3% higher, while Shanghai stocks are down 0.1%
- Spot gold is trading up 0.4% at $US1661.45,
- WTI oil is 0.4% higher at $US96.79
- S&P futures are minimally higher
Overnight
- US Case-Shiller 20-city house price index for November; Forecast: 5.2% rise
- US Consumer Confidence in January; Forecast: 65.1
Local events tomorrow
- Perth - Wesfarmers releases its second quarter sales results
- Sydney - First day of the two-day Hastie Group second creditors’ meetings in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Adelaide
- Perth - Australian Property Institute releases its residential property outlook for 2013
Global market are rallying mainly because worst-case scenarios for economies have been avoided, Westpac chief interest rate strategist Damien McColough says:
- It’s really a removal about the real catastrophe or disaster premium that has been in market rates for some time, As opposed to a confident that the [global economies] are growing strongly, it’s more a confident belief that the worst-case scenario has been averted.
- It’s not like as if Europe is going to surge ahead in growth or America is going to go well above the 2 per cent per annum growth, but it means the expectation is that the euro is not going to collapse and there is going to be wholesale defaults from Spain or one of the other economies that has been under pressure.
- So that causes equities to remove some of the negatives and bonds to lose some of their expensive pricing.
The Australian sharemarket, together with global equities, has risen by more than 20 per cent in the past six months - usually the definition of a bull market, Bell Potter Securities research director Peter Quinton notes.
But Quinton says using such a definition at this time was "a little bit aggressive" for the local sharemarket:
- Having said that, I think there are very solid fundamental underpinnings to those 20 per cent risings.
- Risks are never zero and a lot of the risks that people are worried about are still there, but they are very much diminished. So it would completely untrue that the risks we’ve been worried about have disappeared but they are a lot less today.
- The brutal reality is ... there’s still risks out there but anybody who has been bearish about the stock market for the past six months has been proved dramatically wrong.
The market's gains were led by the financials sector, which added 1.3 per cent. Consumer stocks did well too, with consumer staples rising 1.5 per cent and consumer discretionary up 1.4 per cent.
Other defensive sectors such as health and telco posted strong gains, rising 2.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively.
Materials underpeformed adding just 0.2 per cent, while the gold sectors slumped 2.6 per cent.
The sharemarket has ended sharply higher, chalking up gains for a ninth straight session. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index jumped 53.8 points, or 1.1 per cent, higher at 4889.0, while the broader All Ords added 52 points, or 1.1 per cent, to 4910.9.
The Australian dollar got a confidence boost today, shooting up near four-year peaks versus the yen and rising against the greenback and the euro as a jump in business confidence underpinned the currency.
The dollar advanced to $US1.0444 in late trade, from $US1.0412 early, having touched one-month lows of $US1.0384 on Monday. It gained momentum on the euro, rising to 77.62 euro cents from 77.17 euro cents earlier today.
It made bigger strides against the yen and was last seen flirting with a fresh four-year peak of 95.08 yen scaled last week.
The catalyst for the broad Aussie move higher was a sharp bounce in business confidence in December, according to a private survey, thanks in part to lower interest rates and better news offshore.
The reading gave investors an excuse to modestly pare the chances of further easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Markets pricing now implies a one-in-four chance of a rate cut to a record low 2.75 per cent when the central bank holds its next policy meeting on February 5, from a near one-in-three chance of a cut.
The poor weather has done little to stop today’s domestic confidence pushing our market along in what is proving to be a strong uptrend globally, says CMC Markets trader Ben Taylor:
- Locally today we are seeing a lot of defensive buying taking our market higher with large stakes being taken across the finance and healthcare sectors.
- While it seems like the market is full steam ahead there are a number of non-believers warning that our market is vulnerable to correction as stocks are already pricing in an earnings recovery.
- Personally I believe the risk on sentiment is too hot at the moment to stop this run, we will need to see a clear change in sentiment before I would sell risk in this current environment.
- Our business confidence read today has also given investors reason to extend their long positions. It seems that a lower interest rate environment is starting to improve confidence among the Australian business community, mix this in with the China rebound and we have a sharp rise in confidence.
Macquarie Equities Ltd has entered into an enforceable undertaking with ASIC after the corporate regulator found compliance failures in Macquarie Group's retail stock division.
Macquarie Equities agreed to a review of its Macquarie Private Wealth business, including its licence risk and operating model and systems and its legal and regulatory obligations, the corporate regulator said this afternoon.
ASIC was concerned that the responsibility for compliance sat within the Macquarie Perivate Wealth business and Macquarie Wealth has taken steps to integrate compliance within and reporting to the Macquarie Group-wide compliance function.
'‘Our surveillance found Macquarie Private Wealth fell significantly short of this mark, so ASIC took action,’’ ASIC chairman Greg Medcraft said. ‘‘This is a major EU (enforceable undertaking) affecting one of the wealth industry’s biggest players, which we believe will rectify some serious compliance deficiencies.’’
It requires Macquarie Equities to develop and implement, with the oversight of an independent expert, a plan to rectify any licence risk management and compliance deficiencies.
No longer can the banks rely on that hoary old chestnut of ''high funding costs'' to pass off their failure to match the successive cuts in the official cash rate, Michael West writes in today's most-read business article:
Covered bonds have brought down bank costs even further. In a confidential note to its institutional clients, Westpac describes the fall in wholesale funding costs over the past year as ''extraordinary''.
Margins are fatter than ever, veritably bulging, and there is scant proof that borrowers are getting their grimy fingers on a single cent of it. It's a good thing for shareholders though, some cautious at the listless growth in credit.
The story that the banks spin to their big clients, as opposed to the rest of us, is about as similar as the Chinese and Japanese perspective on who owns the Senkaku Islands.
Cane crops in parts of central Queensland have been ravaged by torrential rain, leading growers to seek financial support from the government.
Industry body Canegrowers says it’s too early to determine the full extent of the damage but it appears the Bundaberg, Maryborough and Childers areas were worst hit.
The organisation is in talks with the state and federal governments about support for individual growers who have been significantly impacted. The nation’s overall cane production is not expected to be significantly affected.
Citi identifies 10 stocks that may surprise this reporting season.
On the upside, it believes, Myer, Santos and McMillan Shakespeare will do better than consensus. Those that face downside risk including Leighton Holdings, Cochlear, as it faces the roll-off of foreign exchange hedge gains, David Jones, Woodside Petroleum and Origin Energy.
In its report, Citi says: "If we're right and the reporting season is reasonable, it should give further impetus to the market, though it has run hard lately, and partly on some encouraging signs about the results.
But we still expect the market to go higher through the year, with our ASX200 target of 5200 for end 2013, as moderate earnings growth returns in FY14."
Read more in Adele Ferguson's Profit season may spur market rally
There were encouraging signs in the latest business survey but really it is still early days and the improvements are yet to bloom into a fully-fledged recovery for the sector, says CommSec economist Sebastian Savanth:
- Business confidence did bounce back into positive territory and recorded the most optimistic reading in five months but that’s as far as the good news goes.
- Not only were business conditions still decidedly weak, but trading conditions actually deteriorated despite the substantial rate cuts late last year.
With the ASX200 on track for its nineth straight day of gains, here's a look at how the rest of the region is performing today:
- Japan(Nikkei): +0.7%
- Shanghai: -0.1%
- Taiwan: +0.7%
- South Korea: +0.8%
- Singapore: flat
- New Zealand: +0.2%
Some more on insurers, from an earlier article by Adele Ferguson - Flooding puts spotlight on insurance stocks:
The latest Queensland floods, just two years after a similar disaster cost the country $6 billion, is a chilling reminder that investing in insurance companies is risky business.
QBE, IAG and Suncorp will release their profit results between February 20 and 26, with the expectation that they will issue a statement well before then on estimates of likely volumes and claims costs relating to the floods. Suncorp has already arranged a 100-strong team to manage the expected claims influx.
The main weight on the market today comes, not unexpectedly, from the insurers:
- QBE: -2.4%
- IAG: -1.5%
- Suncorp: -2.7%
BHP statement on the floods:
Significant rainfall across the Bowen Basin has impacted roads and other services. We are still assessing the impacts to our operations across the Bowen Basin. All sites are operating and we are working to return to normal operations.
Some more on banks: Australia’s banking sector has regularly been compared to Canada’s banks, but this comparison is likely to sit uncomfortably following the surprise credit rating downgrade over the bulk of the Canadian sector earlier today.
Ratings agency Moody’s downgraded several big Canadian banks, cutting the ratings on five banks and one credit union by one notch. The downgrade was triggered by Moody’s concerns of the Canadian banks’ exposure to heavily indebted consumers and elevated home prices.
Among the Canadian banks impacted were Toronto-Dominion and Bank of Nova Scotia which are now each rated "Aa2". Bank of Montreal, CIBC and National Bank of Canada were cut to "Aa3". The ratings were all given stable outlooks.
This compares to Australia’s big four banks which each carry a "Aa2" rating, among some of the highest rated banks in the world.
‘‘The Canadian banks’ downgrades will inevitably turn some attention towards Moody’s ratings of the Australian banks,’’ says National Australia Bank credit strategist Michael Bush.
However, Bush points to a report issued by Moody’s just last month noting Australia's major banks are ‘‘well positioned to withstand significant loan losses from any unanticipated economic downturn’’.
The ASX200 is now up 1 per cent on relatively high volumes, with the banks and Telstra leading the charge.
Local investors are catching up with gains made on world markets since last Friday, says IG Markets analyst Stan Shamu:
‘‘It’s quite encouraging to see the market put in such a performance,’’ he says. ‘‘But, the worrying factor is the defensive stocks are outperforming the general market, which generally points toward some sort of caution or lack of confidence.’’
Another defensive stocks extending its rally is Telstra, which is up 1.3 per cent to a multi-year high of $4.65.
Some are wondering why CBA shares are being driven ever higher. Here's what reader willo suggests:
Bell Potter buy rating and updated price target to $68?
BA is increasing its FY dividend payout ratio to 70% to 80%
EPS and DPS are being upgraded due to rising NIM, falling bad debts, and better equity markets (Colonial)
On FY14 CBA’s yields 9.00% pre-tax vs. 2.70% for a 3yr AGB and sub 4.00% for a TD.
Our forecast for CBA’s FY14 dividend is 384c, with risks to the upside. Putting that on a 5.00%ff yield = a CBA price target of $76.80.
The big banks are driving the market higher, with Westpac up 1 per cent, ANZ rising 1.5 per cent and NAB 1.3 per cent higher.
CBA is extending its record run, adding another 1.4 per cent to hit an all-time high of $64.28 - making the bank worth $103.8 billion.
"The major lead is in the banks," says IG Markets strategist Evan Lucas. "The lead that we have been seeing is that yield hunters are continuing to look for that quasi-bond play and that would be the main reason why we're seeing them jump in."
Australia's biggest bank is now worth $103.8 billion. Photo: Michel OSullivan
Nine Entertainment has been saved from collapse with a Federal Court judge giving the final tick of approval to a $3.4 billion recapitalisation scheme.
Justice Peter Jacobson sanctioned the scheme during a hearing this morning after creditors voted overwhelmingly in favour of the plan last week.
The judge said that considering most creditors had supported the scheme during the meeting and that an expert report had approved it, he would allow the plan to go ahead.
‘‘The scheme is one which appears to be fair and reasonable,’’ he said.
The recapitalisation scheme, which is due to be implemented in five business days, formally ends CVC Asia-Pacific’s stewardship of Nine and draws a line under its $1.9 billion investment loss.
Tokyo stocks have opened lower with investors cautious after falls on Wall Street, a pause in the yen’s decline and ahead of corporate earnings reports by major Japanese firms.
The Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which lost 0.9 per cent on Monday, fell another 73.30 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 10,751.01 at the start.
The benchmark index was likely to trade in a narrow range on Tuesday as it continued to consolidate after recent gains, traders said.
‘‘With US markets mostly lower and the yen showing little net movement from the prior day’s close, stocks are likely to be range-bound after first exhausting the selling pressure seen on Monday,’’ said SMBC Nikko Securities general manager of equities Hiroichi Nishi.
Investors are also cautiously awaiting earnings results by major Japanese companies later this week.
Jamie Freed tweeted the following:
Patersons analyst Andrew Harrington on BHP's disclosure on floods: "It seems short of Pt Hedland being nuked nothing is material to $BHP"
The federal government will open an Austrade office in Myanmar (Burma) this year to help Australian companies capitalise on business opportunities in the newly-emerging southeast Asian nation.
The Austrade office in Yangon (Rangoon), the country’s commercial capital, will eventually be staffed by a trade commissioner and locally-sourced business development managers.
It’s the latest step by the government to renew ties with Myanmar as the nation moves slowly toward democracy after decades of military rule and international isolation.
It’s a miserable start to an election year when both sides of politics have already effectively ruled out doing anything substantial to help ease the transition from a reliance on commodities investment for economic growth, writes BusinessDay's Michael Pascoe.
Such is the cost of worshipping the surplus god above all.
It might explain why a growing list of past and present Reserve Bank board members are telling Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey that their fiscal mantra is wrong, that stimulating the economy can’t just be left to the RBA.
Present RBA board members Heather Ridout and John Edwards and past members Warwick McKibbin, Bob Gregory and Bernie Fraser have been quoted in various places in recent days more or less recommending that the federal government seize the opportunity to borrow at low rates to invest in civil infrastructure. They’ve effectively demonstrated how ideologically hidebound our big-picture politics have become, strapped to the surplus mast.
The RBA types are flying in the face of the orthodoxy presented by Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson, presenting the government’s line, and the Abbott/Hockey show over the weekend.
Business confidence has risen sharply following financial crisis lows of the month before, but business conditions remain soft and forward indicators of demand are weak, the National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey shows.
The temporary aversion of the US ‘‘fiscal cliff’’ and more positive data about the Chinese data, coupled with the Reserve Bank’s 25 basis points interest rate cut last month, saw NAB’s monthly business confidence index lift to 3 in December, from minus 9 the month before.
The monthly business conditions index improved from minus 6 in November to minus 4 in December, as conditions remained particularly challenging in the wholesale, manufacturing, retail and construction sectors, the bank said in a statement this morning.
Mining magnate Gina Rinehart's main company has taken a substantial shareholding in Melbourne oil and gas minnow Lakes Oil.
In a purchase that was announced by Lakes Oil to the Australian Stock Exchange this morning, the company said the bulk a $6.3 million notes issue had been bought by a wholly owned subsidiary of Ms Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting.
The subsidiary, which was not named in the statement, now holds 18.6 per cent of Lakes Oil.
As part of the deal, Ms Rinehart's ally Professor Ian Plimer has been appointed as a non-executive director of Lakes Oil.
Samsung Electronics said today that its US subsidiary had acquired NeuroLogica, a maker of computed tomography (CT) machines, in its latest push into the medical equipment business to take on the likes of General Electric and Philips.
Samsung Electronics America has fully acquired Massachusetts-based start-up NeuroLogica for an undisclosed amount, the South Korean company said in a statement. NeuroLogica, which was established in 2004, manufactures portable CT scanners.
The head of Samsung's consumer electronics division had told Reuters earlier this month that the company was seeking to grow its medical device unit by adding MRI scanners and CT machines, and the company was open to making acquisitions.
The economy will need a new growth engine when mining investment finally peaks, but the strong Australian dollar could hamper the central bank’s efforts to spur non-resource sectors into action, an independent forecaster says.
Deloitte Access Economics expects the massive surge in engineering construction to develop new mines and infrastructure will peak in late 2013, and that work will mean a 30 per cent gain in mining output over the next five years.
However, Deloitte Access Economics economist Chris Richardson says this is only a small part of the economy, particularly in terms of jobs.
‘‘That’s what lower interest rates will help to achieve with cheap credit projected to sprinkle some fairy dust over the Australia industrial landscape.’’
He expects housing construction will ‘‘strut its stuff’’ in 2013, while the recovery in retail, albeit from a fairly poor base, might get a second wind from the second half of the year.
However, while these interest-rate-sensitive sectors may get a lift, it is less clear that the ‘‘dollar-dependent’’ sector will do the same.
‘‘The Australian dollar is still giving manufacturing a Chinese burn, and the news also remains modest in both tourism and international education,’’ Mr Richardson says.
Chinese majority-owned Yancoal has closed two of its Queensland coal mines after heavy rainfall in the wake of ex-cyclone Oswald.
At the Middlemount open cut mine, jointly owned with Peabody Energy, a levee bank has been breached and water has flowed into the pit.
Yancoal told the ASX this morning production was likely to be impacted for at least three weeks.
Yancoal's Yarrabee mine was closed on the weekend but normal operations are expected to resume this week.
Yancoal shares were down 0.5c at 92.5c in early trade today.
Shares in Sundance Resources have gone into a trading halt this morning ahead of a very important week for the iron ore aspirant.
A protracted takeover bid by Chinese group Hanlong is scheduled to pass a key milestone on Thursday when paperwork confirming Hanlong's financial backing from the China Development Bank is supposed to arrive at the Perth offices of Sundance.
The takeover has been delayed several times on the back of Hanlong's inability to secure the funding, and the process suffered another blow in December when the CDB sought to conduct a review of Sundance's African iron ore project and its mining permits before confiming its financial support.
Insurance major Suncorp has so far received around 4,500 claims from storms and flooding across Queensland and NSW.
The insurer, which is also behind brands such as AAMI and GIO, said it expected claims numbers to rise through the week with flood levels across parts of both states yet to peak.
The insurer suggested it had plenty of financial headroom before flood payouts start to crimp earnings. Suncorp said its allowance for large natural hazards in the 2013 financial year was $520 million. It has so far used just a fraction of this in the six months to end-December with total natural hazard claims running at $147 million.
Australian consumers are cutting back on debt and increasing their use of debit cards as they become more cautious about spending and borrowing, a survey has found.
Expectations for household debt were at 18 per cent for the March quarter, a fall from 22 and 26 per cent for the last two quarters, the Dun & Bradstreet’s Consumer Credit Expectations Survey, released today, found.
The national Newspoll survey of about 1200 people this month is reflected in recent economic data, which has seen Australians adopt a ‘‘balance sheet repair’’ mentality of paying off debt, increasing savings and paring down on discretionary spending.
‘‘Overall, we’ve witnessed a sizeable shift in the spending behaviour of the Australian consumer. There is a greater degree of consideration being applied to each spending decision and a greater focus on spending within our means,’’ Dun & Bradstreet’s chief executive Gareth Jones said in a statement.
The sharemarket has opened higher, following on from last week's rally. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 has added 36.5 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 4871.7, while the broader All Ords is up 36.1 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 4895.
As of 7am AEDT, insurers have received some 6100 claims for losses in Queensland from the floods, the Insurance Council of Australia says.
Those claims involve insured losses estimated at $72 million, with the tally now "rising rapidly", according to the ICA's head of corporate affairs, Campbell Fuller.
So far, insurers are yet to receive many claims relating to losses in NSW from the storm.
Moody’s has downgraded the long-term credit ratings of six large Canadian banks, citing concerns over record high Canadian consumer debt and soaring home prices.
Moody’s Investors Service on Monday cut the long-term ratings by one notch of the Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, Caisse centrale Desjardins, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank.
The ratings of the six banks now range between AA1 and AA3, but they still rank among the top-rated financial institutions in the world.
Lend Lease will be a stock to watch today with the construction group winning a $364.52 million contract to build 3500 student apartments across England.
The agreement with privately-owned developer Manor Property Group is also expected to include the construction of an additional 36,500 student accommodation units around the United Kingdom, Lend Lease said on Tuesday.
However, the company has not put a value on that work.The first 3,500 units will be built in the cities of Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Sheffield and Hull.
Work would begin in 2013 and was due to be completed in 2015, Lend Lease said in a statement.
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