Generic Channel 7 images at Telstradome. The Age Business Channel Seven Television SPECIAL CH 7

Picture by Viki Lascaris 
Monday 20 November 2006

Given Seven's commanding position in the main media ad market, the announcement may cause pundits to reconsider their $13 billion sector forecast. Photo: Viki Lascaris

Seven West Media shares plunged today, tumbling 86 cents, or 22.8 per cent, to close at $2.91 after Tuesday's profit downgrade.

Other media stocks joined the selloff. Southern Cross shares were 4.1 per cent lower at $1.31 and Prime Media stocks were 2.7 per cent lower at 72 cents. Fairfax Media shares fell 2 cents to 70 cents while Ten Network shares were steady at 81.5 cents.

Among other media shares, fellow broadcaster Ten was steady at 81.5 cents, and Southern Cross Media was down five cents at $1.32. Fairfax was down two cents to 70 cents, News Corp was up one cent at $18.89, and APN News and Media shares were half a cent lower at 81.5 cents.

Seven West announced that full-year earnings before interest and tax were likely to be almost $50 million less than analysts' expectations of $515 million.

It comes as a resurgent Nine attacks Seven's prime-time schedule with The Voice and The Block, stunting the growth of Australia's Got Talent, Packed to the Rafters and Revenge, and forcing Seven to reschedule shows.

Analysts were caught by surprise. ''We clearly underestimated the level of cost growth in the TV network,'' Citi analyst Justin Diddams said in a note to clients.

Seven West told the market it was committed to rein in cost growth to below inflation, ''except for the continuing investment in programming in the television division'', prompting Citi to forecast annual cost growth of more than 8 per cent.

''Our previous forecasts assumed a portion of the incremental AFL costs, as circa $20 million would be absorbed into the existing programming budget.''

While overall revenue growth at Seven West would ease 0.6 per cent, newspaper revenues were expected to decline 7 per cent in the second half, Citi forecast.

Derryn Chin at Macquarie said in a note that the extent of the weakness came as a surprise, given Seven has the free-to-air AFL broadcast rights and recent suggestions from Ten indicated the market was stabilising, although still weak.

''Putting this all together, we expect the weakness is more likely coming from higher than expected costs in television as well as broad-based weakness across publishing assets in newspapers and magazines, which to date had not been evident in the numbers, despite the much-publicised ex-mining slowdown,'' it said in the note.

Macquarie added that management had told it that visibility for the ad market was ''extremely limited'', which led it to conclude that ''there may be an element of conservatism inherent in this update''.

The announcement will in all likelihood prompt pundits to revisit their forecasts for the $13 billion main media ad market, given Seven's commanding position. Earlier this year the consensus for growth this calendar year was 3 per cent.

Seven West leads in the TV market, with a 40.7 per cent share of the $2.7 billion metropolitan TV ad market, a monopoly of the newspaper market in the boom city of Perth, through West Australian Newspapers, and strong positions in magazines, through Pacific Magazines, and in the internet, through its 50 per cent stake in Yahoo!7.

March-quarter figures from advertising analyst SMI showed the prolonged advertising downturn is yet to abate. And the anaemic broader economic conditions were underscored on Tuesday by quarterly inflation of 0.1 per cent.