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Donald Trump as US president no longer a black swan event

This year started with one of those fanciful, off-the-wall, left-field, way-out-there possible 'black swan' events - Donald Trump becoming president of the United States.

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Trump more than a black swan event

The idea of Donald Trump becoming President of the United States at the start of the year seemed way-out-there but now it doesn't seem so fanciful. Michael Pascoe comments.

Two very long months later, that's no longer so fanciful.

I've just spent three weeks in the US and President Trump is looking more pervasive wild duck than exotic black swan.

Tonight, with the Super Tuesday bunch of US state primaries, there's a probability the boastfully racist, sectarian, protectionist Trump will take a very big step closer to winning the Republican nomination. It is his to lose.

The presumed Democrat candidate, Hillary Clinton, is ahead of Trump in the polls but the result of the two-horse race is far from a sure thing.

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There's the wildcard factor of voter turnout – only 54.9 per cent last time – in a country where Clinton seems to be as strongly disliked as liked.

And there's the reality of the US being a violent, over-armed society with more than its fair share of right wing extremists. (The Kalamazoo mass shooting on February 20 seemed to receive plenty of coverage because the perp was an Uber driver – the 17 shot in Kansas and three police in Virginia within the week, not so much. Uber wasn't involved.)

President Trump would be scary stuff on any number of fronts.

He promises to be bad for Wall Street as well as international trade and Mexican relations.

The conservative Republican establishment isn't just worried because Trump has promised to take on some of the worst excesses of the party's business backers, as a provocative Rolling Stone profile has documented.

Optimists and Trump apologists claim The Donald's more extreme views are just those of a show-business politician doing whatever it takes to win the US presidential race reality TV show.

And, along with the offensive, dangerous and totally wacky stuff, Trump does have some valid points that appeal to middle and working class Americans who realise they've been going nowhere under both Republicans and Democrats for a couple of decades

For a Republican candidate, you could even argue he's a relative liberal.

But for Australia, his protectionism, jingoism and Putin-esque ego are a threat to our wellbeing.

President Trump would rattle our markets and should give pause to our blind loyalty to American foreign policy, causing a reassessment of where our self-interest ultimately lies.

"All the way with Donald Trump" doesn't rhyme and certainly doesn't resonate.

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