The Economy


Trade to help offset weak investment

Mark Mulligan 1:02 PM   A strong rise in exports has increased the chances that economic growth in the three months through September will at least match forecasts of around 0.7 per cent.

Sydney investment boom underwrites housing

Michael Pascoe

Michael Pascoe 12:12 PM   There's a boom rolling through Sydney for decades, supporting house prices along the way.

No revenue problem? We're about to learn truth

In the hand: Superannuation concessions are under pressure.

Peter Martin 11:12 AM   Left unchecked, extraordinarily generous concessions on superannuation will land our tax system in danger.

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Emerging markets growth model is 'broken'

Governments have almost exhausted the levers they have in terms of what they can do to help stimulate economies.

Julie Verhage 9:44 AM   Strategists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have been calling the bottom in emerging markets, but Citigroup feels differently.

$A strength may force RBA 'jawboning'

The RBA may use Tuesday's board meeting to talk the dollar down again.

Mark Mulligan 9:08 AM   The recent resilience of the Australian dollar may force the central bank to┬áresume talking down the currency.

Australia is not 'open for business': BCA

Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott says the agriculture and food manufacturing sectors need to be viewed as one to aid growth.

Jared Lynch 12:30 AM   The Business Council of Australia says the government's plan to slash the screening threshold for overseas investment is "actively discouraging foreign investment".

'Australia headed for recession': Yanis Varoufakis

Dr Yanis Varoufakis.

Mark Mulligan 12:15 AM   Australia is headed towards recession, according to former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, due to weak domestic investment and the slowdown in China.

Michael Pascoe

It's growth, but not as we know it

Michael Pascoe

Michael Pascoe   From an employment perspective, maybe the capex outlook isn't as bad as it first looked on Thursday.

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Stock, profits point to stronger GDP

Transition: Utilities and other services showed among the biggest rises in wages.

Mark Mulligan   Companies' operating profits climbed slightly more than expected during the third quarter, adding weight to forecasts that gross domestic product for the three months to the end of September should be markedly stronger than the June quarter's 0.2 per cent.

Australia falling off mining investment cliff

The commodities sector has had few winners lately and is predicted by BIS Shrapnel to worsen.

Peter Martin   Australia has only just begun to tumble over the mining investment cliff new forecasts suggest, with mining investment set to fall a further 58 per cent over the next three years after sliding 11 per cent in 2014-15.

Let's not repeat our many competition stuff-ups

Many of the reforms Ian Harper (pictured with Treasurer Scott Morrison) proposes make much sense.

Ross Gittins   We'll see how many of Harper's braver proposals are actually implemented. Most of them are up to the premiers, not the feds.

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Punters punting our tax pennies offshore

Michael West

Michael West   Books of the bookmakers make for sorry reading.

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Is slower growth such a bad thing?

Ross Gittins

Ross Gittins   Population is sometimes overlooked as a key factor in our prosperity.

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Hard to find a sharper Harper

Harold Mitchell.

Harold Mitchell   Review fatigue aside, the competition inquiry has delivered food for thought.

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Aussie's slide spurs weakest inflation response since its float

"For economists and policymakers trained from the 1960s to the 1990s, when the task was always to stop inflation rising and/or to get it down, this is a remarkable outcome," said RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.

Michael Heath   It used to be simple: When the currency tumbled, consumer prices would rise as the cost of imported goods climbed. Not anymore.

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House prices are cooling, not crashing

Citi's modelling anticipates house price growth to slow to 4 per cent in 2016-17.

Vanessa Desloires   The housing market isn't crashing, but it could force the RBA to cut interest rates again, Citi economists say.

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Capex slide puts budget forecasts in doubt

Peter Martin dinkus

Peter Martin   Business investment is collapsing at a record pace as resource companies accelerate cutbacks.

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Weatherill breaks ranks with conditional backing of 15% GST

South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill.

Peter Martin   South Australia has broken ranks with other Labor states and come out in favour of a 15 per cent goods and services tax, with conditions.

Women, want a pay rise? Fight for one

Nassim Khadem

Nassim Khadem   Women have a part to play to reduce the gender pay gap. If you want a promotion, apply for it, and keep pushing until you do.

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The problem with corporate Australia: ancient companies

The top end of town - established, rather than dynamic.

John McDuling   Our biggest companies are pretty aged, compared to the dynamic corporate giants that power the world's biggest economy.

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This island says everything about our economy

Curtis Island: The majority of people coming to the tropical isle these days are there to help build the LNG facilities, not for the pristine beaches or endangered dugongs and snubfin dolphins.

James Paton   On the largest island in the Great Barrier Reef, $80 billion of LNG terminals are helping feed China's hunger for energy. The next major construction project may appeal to its tourists.

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Tax Office still short on women at top levels

Almost 60 per cent of the ATO's workforce is women. But at the top levels, men far outnumber women.

Nassim Khadem   The majority of the Australian Taxation Office's workforce may be female, but it's a different story in its middle and upper management.

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If China killed commodities boom, Fed is about to bury it

Janet Yellen's Fed is widely expected to start raising US interest rates in December.

Kevin Crowley   For commodities, it's like the 21st century never happened. The last time commodity investor returns were this low, Apple's best-selling product was a desktop computer, and you could pay for it with francs and deutsche marks.

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Sydney's Gen Y gloomier than global peers

One in five young people in Sydney say their age is a barrier to employment, compared with one in 10 globally, new research shows.

Inga Ting   Young people in Sydney are twice as likely as youth in other global cities to say their age made it hard to find work, according to new international research into the attitudes and economic prospects of 18 to 25-year olds.

Mining slump dragging on construction

Nailed it. As expected, residential construction continues to grow, but not enough to offset engineering decline.

Mark Mulligan   The value of construction activity again shrunk in the third quarter, as investment in housing and office buildings failed to pick up the slack left by the decline in resources-related engineering works.

RBA hints rates to stay on hold

"It is an idea I happen to agree with":  RBA's Glenn Stevens indicated the case to stay on hold in December is a strong one.

Peter Martin   Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has signalled that interest rates will stay on hold at next Tuesday's meeting saying the case for leaving them steady was one he "happened to agree with".

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Support for effects test remains

Treasurer Scott Morrison releases the government's response to the competition policy review with review author Professor Ian Harper at Parliament House on Tuesday.

Nassim Khadem and Cara Waters   Big business has welcomed the Turnbull government's decision to delay changes to misuse of market power provisions.

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The post-crisis toll-road Game of Thrones is over

Malcolm Maiden.

Malcolm Maiden   The price the Transurban consortium paid for Airportlink underlines how flawed the original business case was.

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Treasury downgrades projections ahead of mid-year budget update

Nigel Ray: "We now think potential GDP will now grow around 2.75 per cent."

Peter Martin   Treasury has cast a shadow of the government's mid-year budget update, knocking down its economic growth projections and foreshadowing bigger budget deficits for longer.

What's ahead for house prices, interest rates?

Wage growth is tipped to remain historically low at 2.5 per cent in 2016 followed by 2.8 per cent in 2017.

Peter Martin   The Reserve Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold for the rest of this year and throughout 2016 in the view of Australia's leading financial market forecasters.

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