It is no great stretch to say that as NSW goes, so may the nation. We are about to witness what is effectively a massive opinion poll.

While, if anything, the NSW Coalition government is in a slightly better position than its federal counterpart with the polls running at 50/50 on a two party preferred basis, the majority of the pundits are predicting a hung parliament thanks to the large number of independents contesting a wide range of seats and the proliferation of minor parties.

While federal issues, including the decision to change leaders, are weighing on the Berejiklian government, state-based issues and political developments have also played a role in slashing the conservative vote since Barry O'Farrell led the LNP coalition to victory in a landslide in 2011.

That election remains notable in that the swing against the NSW ALP of 16.4 per cent, which saw them lose 24 of the 44 seats they had held when the election was called, remains the largest against any government since World War II.

Despite a valiant defence by Kristina Keneally, who is now trying to transition to Federal politics, Labor was doomed following a series of high level corruption scandals, a failure to invest in infrastructure and economic mismanagement.

After O'Farrell stepped down in 2014 over Grange-gate he was replaced by banker turned politician Mike Baird. Baird, who lost 15 of the seats that had been taken from Labor in 2011 at the 2015 election, was, in turn replaced by Gladys Berejiklian in 2017.

Labor, which has benefited mightily from the decision to change leaders that was forced on them last November because of allegations long term Opposition leader Luke Foley had harassed a female journalist, has done remarkably well.

That said, new leader Michael Daley has stumbled badly in recent days.

While his poor performance in Wednesday night's debate with Berejiklian is of limited interest to the watchers in Canberra, his bungled apology over his claim Asian workers were taking Australian jobs and driving "our children" out of Sydney has attracted a lot of attention.

Many federal politicians would be aware they are open to censure for similar views.

Given the NSW Coalition has managed to turn the state's economic situation around in the eight years since it came to office, it is clear Berijiklian's biggest handicap has been the federal party.

In the event of a clear Coalition win in NSW Morrison and his colleagues will be breathing a big sigh of relief. It would offer some hope of clinging to power, albeit probably in a minority government.

A NSW LNP Coalition minority government might suggest Labor would win federally.

If the ALP succeeds in forming government, either in its own right or in a coalition, there is no hope for the conservatives federally. They will be swept away.

The NSW poll is a massive litmus test for what is about to happen across the nation. It will almost certainly predict the outcome of this year's federal election.