Pictures of rows of fresh-faced candidates always reassure me because they show that lots of brave people are putting their hands up to stand for public office. As the clock ticks down from twelve months to go until the next ACT election we have begun to see stories and photographs of those candidates who are either putting their hands up for pre-selection in the case of the Labor Party or have actually been pre-selected in the case of the Greens. The Liberal candidates will be announced in the New Year.
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Those parties are better organised than anyone else so they hit the road running earlier. The micro parties and Independents will slowly follow. Some candidates we won't know until the nominations are formally declared just before the election. Such timing indicates their likely lack of success however as it is better to be in the field early.
This election was always going to flush out a lot of candidates because the expansion of the Assembly from 17 to 25 members gives plenty of opportunities to new faces. There were always going to be at least eight new members but recent retirements mean there will be more. That's a huge infusion of new talent in what will still be a small parliament.
This is the wider context for the How to be Heard 2016 seminar on December 3. Speakers will include Glenn Druery, the so-called preference whisperer, and Tim Bohm, founder of the Bullet Train Party and Like Canberra. Cold water has already been poured on the participation of Druery, known for his association with the controversial preference deals that have enabled some micro-party candidates to get elected to the Senate.
The cold-water brigade has pointed to the special characteristics of the ACT electoral system and its differences from the Senate system. The ACT system has Robson Rotation of the order of candidates and does not have the Above the Line voting crucial to the intricate preference deals that Druery conjures up. Yet I'd be surprised if there wasn't a good attendance as there is always curiosity plus a real hunger in some cases to get involved. There is also the likelihood that the Sex Party, which has a Canberra base and which is on a roll, will stand.
Over the past 12 months many people have given serious consideration to putting their hand up. Several have sought my advice. One was already a party member. Another was weighing up whether to join an established party or to run as an Independent. A third was definitely an Independent or new party candidate. They all had experience and something to offer, driven either by a sense that they had a responsibility as a citizen to stand, a belief that they had the necessary personal qualities to make a contribution, or confidence that they could do better than the incumbents. But they were all uncertain and I don't know whether any of them will end up standing.
The ACT has a history of successful Independents and minor parties so on the face of it potential candidates should find encouragement. The Hare-Clark proportional representation electoral system offers more hope than single member systems. But the new ACT seats have only five members, one less than the Senate, so the quota required for success is higher. What's more not only does the ACT have the two major parties which are strongly tipped to win at least four of the five spots between them in each electorate but it has a successful minor party with the form to be a strong contender against the big two for the fifth seat.
Electoral reformers, such as the Proportional Representation Society, have concentrated on breaking down the power of the party machines over voter choice through abolishing How to Vote cards and introducing Robson rotation rather than weakening the inherent advantages of party candidates themselves.
So where does that leave everyone else? The short answer is with a lot of work to do. Their chances are somewhere between none at all or very little. This verdict comes as a surprise to those who consult me about their chances. They are surprised because they generally consider it indisputable that the existing members of the Assembly, including the party leaders, are uninspiring at best. They genuinely believe they could do better and underestimate the ignorance and apathy of voters and the advantages that the existing parties have. Those advantages include incumbency, the existing party identification of many voters, and organisation, membership and funding.
But thankfully the long odds won't prevent a healthy number of independents and micro parties running because hope springs eternal. So what are the characteristics of potential micro parties and Independents that just might make them successful next October?
Some characteristics should be taken for granted, including personal integrity, money to run a campaign, a network of supporters, and a willingness to work hard from now until the election. Don't even think about it if you haven't got these essentials.
Beyond that you need an attention-catching idea or policy and preferably a reasonable personal profile. Big public profiles are rare. Canberra lacks powerful local Mayors, one source of successful Independent candidates. Business and organisation leaders often have a national rather than an ACT focus. The public service offers careers rather than public profiles. Many academics are transient.
Ask yourself who in Canberra already has an overpoweringly high profile. The problem is there are hardly any outside a precious few sporting, media, education and cultural figures and most of those won't want to run.
John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University.
