Stealing a march on your competitors in the highly regulated international aviation industry is no easy thing, but Qatar Airways has done just that by announcing a regular service to Canberra beginning by 2018. Except for Infrastructure and Transport Minister Darren Chester's office and the Canberra Airport Group, few people seem to have been aware the state-owned flag carrier was on Canberra's horizon, with most predictions being that Air New Zealand or Cathay Pacific would become the second airline (behind Singapore Airlines) to start scheduled services into and out of Canberra.
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Even the Barr government, which has worked tirelessly in Asia in recent years showcasing Canberra as an international aviation gateway, seems to have been oblivious to the Qatar Airways announcement. To anyone familiar with the trajectory of Gulf-based carriers like Qatar, Emirates and Etihad, however, the announcement may not have been so surprising.
In an astonishingly short time, at least in commercial aviation terms, these three carriers have grown to become a significant global presence. Historically, Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai were off the aviation beaten track; they're now among the busiest hubs in the world. And the airlines of the oil and gas-rich emirates have placed aircraft orders with Boeing and Airbus worth tens of billions of dollars – witness to their ambitious plans to expand into markets like the Asia-Pacific.
While Qatar's major focus in Australia is likely to remain the established gateway destinations of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, Canberra offers it significant potential. It's relatively close to Sydney without any of the drawbacks that characterise Mascot airport such as congestion, limited landing slots at peak times, and high rents and charges. It's also curfew-free. Even Canberra's hotel accommodation – essential tourist infrastructure that's lagged well behind Sydney in terms of quality and quantity – has improved markedly in recent years. And there's more coming on line.
The lack of a fast rail connection to Sydney remains the biggest potential obstacle to Canberra airport's future growth as a passenger and freight hub – though this is perhaps not as meaningful as many people seem to think. New tunnels and toll roads in Sydney have improved road travel times to the point where it is barely an issue for tourists and freight companies. And improvements to the existing rail line could easily deliver faster travel at a fraction of the cost of the endlessly debated high-speed rail link.
The entrance of Singapore Airlines and now Qatar Airways to Canberra may herald the arrival of other new airlines, and not just Cathay Pacific or Air New Zealand. China's airlines are expanding aggressively as those of the Gulf, in part because of Beijing's desire to play a more influential economic role in the Asia Pacific region. That and the emergence of a prosperous middle class with a yen for travel makes a Canberra-China air connection look increasingly likely.
