Those rumours were precipitated by Mr Baird's inexplicable delay in reshuffling his ministry after deputy premier and Nationals leader Troy Grant resigned on November 14. His deferral of a reshuffle (against the advice of his deputy, John Barilaro) quickly led to suggestions Mr Baird might quit in January. Others were saying he would go later in the year, or perhaps early in 2018.

Mr Baird's public demeanour late last year was subdued, and justifiably so. His government's credibility and authority had been damaged by opposition to Sydney lockout laws, and the reversal of the greyhound racing ban had proved personally embarrassing for the Premier.

For some MPs to have begun openly speculating on a departure date so soon after these setbacks suggests Mr Baird's mood around Macquarie Street was very low indeed. We now know that he was enduring tough family times as well, with both parents and a sister suffering ill health.

As understandable as Mr Baird's wish to spend more time with his family may be, his decision may have been precipitate. Thanks largely to Mr Baird's leadership, NSW is in the best economic situation it's been for years, with a significantly improved budgetary position, strong growth and an extensive program of new infrastructure provision.

For all those considerable achievements, however, historians are more likely to focus on his spectacular fall from grace.

Always a likeable politician, Mr Baird's public popularity soared after his 2015 election victory. He was admired around the country, and seen as a model for other state leaders – principled, upright and honest. Mr Baird's strong support of new lockout laws introduced in February 2014 to curb alcohol-fuelled violence was applauded as the hallmark of a conviction politician – so, too, his decision to ban greyhound racing in 2017. Ironically, the two initiatives were to prove to be Mr Baird's Waterloo.

The lockout laws and the greyhound racing ban, although well intentioned, were introduced without adequate consultation. And Mr Baird's decision to ban greyhound racing without canvassing the matter with his backbench – and without allowing the industry a chance at reform – was particularly ill-advised.

After months of unfavourable media coverage and internal pressure from the Nationals, Mr Baird was forced into a humiliating retreat on the greyhound issue – and the government continues to be criticised over its lockout laws, despite agreeing to an independent review of their impact and effectiveness.

Had Mr Baird decided to soldier on – something all NSW Liberals seem to have wanted – Mr Baird might well have recovered his popularity and political touch. But by going so early, he may have ensured that he's remembered principally for his spectacular fall from political grace.