The sticking point is the Greens, who are insisting on a lower bet per spin. ACT clubs operate not only under a pokies monopoly, the highest number of machines per capita and a much lower tax regime than most, they also have the highest bet per spin, at $10 a spin, alongside NSW. In Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, spins are limited to $5.

The Productivity Commission recommended in 2010 that spins should be limited to $1, but state governments are too attached to gambling taxes and too fixated on keeping industries alive, even ones that feed off the vulnerable, to heed the call.

The ACT Greens are using Labor's decision to allow poker mahines into the casino to try to force the issue, pushing for $1 spins, or at least something under $5 as a condition of their support. Since they hold the balance of power, the question has stalled there.

Now, the poker machine manufacturers have entered the fray, declaring that the ACT must have a consistent spin limit across the territory to make it viable to manufacture games. The Gaming Technology Association has told the ACT government that 200 machines could not be provided to the casino at prices anywhere near viable. The industry group wants the bet limit brought to $10 so it is supplying the same games to the ACT's 4000 to 5000 machines, making it a feasible job lot. It says if the bet limit is to be cut, it must be cut across the board. If the industry is giving voice to the reality, rather than simply trying to head off an unpalatable outcome, it is difficult to see how poker machines can make their way into the casino.

The industry intervention adds another layer of complexity to what is already an excruciatingly delicate issue for the ACT Labor government. Don't forget, the Labor Party's own club group is one of the biggest in the city and makes $24 million a year from its poker machines. The Labor Club board is made up of party members largely appointed by the party's annual conference and they are not likely to quietly accede a drastic reduction in bet limits.

Already the government has made concessions to the casino to try to get its bid over the line, including allowing it to have 60 terminals at fully-automated tabled games in addition to the 200 poker machines, and allowing the casino to do just a part of its major redevelopment before it is allowed to install the pokies.

Precisely how much of the development must be complete has not been spelled out and is apparently still being negotiated, but this is the kind of concession typical of so many projects that end up a shadow of their much-hyped selves. If the city ends up with a rather bigger casino with an upgraded hotel and some shopping in return for allowing the spread of poker machines, Canberrans will have given away a lot for little return.

If, however, the Greens negotiate a spin limit close to $1 and it is imposed not only on the casino but on the city's clubs, our elected leaders will have made real and meaningful progress. It's a pity that outcome is in the realm of the fanciful.