Impartial observers of ACT politics are likely to view Alistair Coe's elevation as the new leader of the Canberra Liberals as counter-intuitive – perhaps even inimical to the party's best electoral interests. They'd probably conclude, however, that it was was an inevitability given the distinct unlikelihood of Jeremy Hanson being given a second chance. More germane to that theory, perhaps, is that Mr Coe is a prominent member of the Liberals' muscular and dominant conservative faction.
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Mr Coe now distances himself from the avowedly socially conservative MLA that he was in 2008, when in his maiden Assembly speech he criticised the Stanhope government's use of "valuable taxpayer resources" in seeking to "turn Canberra into the nation's leading social laboratory". And he says his focus as leader will be on cost of living and social equity issues rather than railing at social engineering. Nonetheless, the perception that Coe remains at heart a conservative and will lead a government intent on unwinding social reforms will continue to nag voters.
John Howard pithily said of Canberra that it "looks like Killara, votes like Cessnock", and though that was a political eternity ago, the ACT has lost none of its natural inclination to support socially progressive policies of the sort that Labor champions. Kate Carnell captured Canberra for the Liberals in 1995 by espousing social policies which matched and even exceeded Labor's. All that suggests an enlightened social outlook is nearly unavoidable if the Liberals are seriously intent on regaining government.
Instead of replicating Labor's social policies (an obviously unpalatable option), Mr Coe wants the Liberals to modernise and sharpen their campaign techniques. And he points to the closeness of the election result (with Labor winning 92,000 votes to the Liberals' 88,000) as proof that an incremental approach can succeed in wresting power from Labor.
The Liberals' grass-roots campaigning was certainly nowhere near as sophisticated or comprehensive as Labor's, and Mr Coe's expectation that a similar approach will deliver extra votes for non-Labor candidates in 2020 does not seem fanciful.
However, without a sympathetic independent candidate – and the Liberals have had to rely on just such support to form minority government in the past – a strategy of using slick campaigning techniques off the back of highlighting cost-of-living concerns is most unlikely to deliver Mr Coe and his colleagues from the purgatory of opposition. Indeed, there's every chance the approach will condemn them to spending a further eight years in limbo – unless the Barr Labor government stumbles in a major way.
Mr Coe is an obviously talented and effective politician. He was easily the Liberals' best campaigner, for example, although the competition for that honour was not extensive. His youth and energy, too, will help. But all these talents will all be of no worth if he fails to recognise that this is a left-leaning electorate with a firm fondness for Labor-like policies, both social and economic.
