Machiavellian may be too strong a word to describe Tony Abbott's stance on same sex marriage – his opposition to broadening the Marriage Act (amended in 2004 to include a definition of marriage as the "union of a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others") has been unequivocal, after all. Yet his manoeuvring to prevent the issue being debated in Parliament, let alone being put to a free vote, has been artful. In May, to forestall a marriage equality bill being moved by an individual with multi-party support, the Prime Minister said that if MPs were to make a "big decision on this, it ought to be owned by the Parliament and not by any particular party".
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With that prospect now in the offing, and suggestions there may be enough support for it to pass both houses, Mr Abbott has argued that because the joint party room discusses only those private members' bill which will be voted on – and that is rare for such bills to be actually be voted on – the matter is academic . The argument has all the hallmarks of a Catch 22. However, to hedge his bets, Mr Abbott – or rather his ideological comrade in arms, Eric Abetz – has taken up cudgels on a different front, defending not just the inviolability of the Marriage Act, but arguing that support for change has been overestimated by the media, and that ordinary voters regard same-sex marriage reform as being a low-priority item.
Senator Abetz arguably has a point: public opinion polling suggests support for same-sex marriage in Australia is about 68 per cent (with 25 per cent opposed and 7 per cent uncommitted). Whether those favouring reform believe it's an issue as pressing or compelling as, say, national security, youth unemployment, or housing affordability is difficult to say, however. But Senator Abetz's assertion that "concern" with same-sex marriage is a media construct or obsession is a red herring, as is his claim that the issue is a distraction to the serious business of government. Liberal democracies the world over are steadily embracing marriage equality and Australia's unwillingness to venture down that path is a legitimate story, as is debate about how long the status quo will be maintained in the face of growing momentum for change. And it is absurd to suggest that the government, which has carriage of any number of complex issues, might be distracted by a debate on same-sex marriage. Regardless of Senator Abetz's cavilling, people's minds are occupied by marriage equality, as is evidenced by the growing number of MPs proclaiming their support for reform, frequently as a result of listening to constituents.
As recently at last year, it was generally agreed the social conservatives in Parliament had the numbers to defeat a free vote. The growing protestations of the Liberals' social conservative wing suggest that may no longer be the case. Their opposition to marriage equality, rooted in fealty to the conservative cause and made concrete by promises to voters not to tinker with the Marriage Act, just looks stubborn, and increasingly untenable.
