Just as the evidence and impact of climate change has become clearer and more compelling over the past two decades, so the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have assumed an increasingly direct and urgent tone. The IPCC’s latest report, released in Yokohama on Monday, is arguably its most disturbing and pessimistic yet. The evidence of damaging climate change now exists on every continent, say scientists, and includes melting ice caps, rising oceans, dying coral reefs, and more intense and severe weather events. And the worst could be yet to come, with the world’s food supply now at considerable risk of disruption from stressed water supplies. Perhaps the direst warning of all, however, is contained in that section of the report co-written by three Canberra academics – Helen Berry, Tony McMichael and Colin Butler – which asserts that humans risk becoming extinct as a species “unless we get control’’ of the current rate of warming.
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The evidence that global warming is unfolding just as the scientists predicted certainly warrants such strong language. A second justification, if one were needed, is the selective deafness that many politicians and business leaders have manifested towards past IPCC warnings – illustrated by the inability of governments to conclude a meaningful pact to reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
World leaders are due to meet in New York later this year to prepare the ground for a summit meeting in Paris in December next year at which they will once again try to forge the consensus needed for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The conspicuous failure of world leaders to agree to a pact in Copenhagen in 2009 suggests the chances of success at Paris next year may be limited.
However, there are some promising signs. The governments of China and the US, which together account for two-fifths of global greenhouse gas emissions, are taking important steps to reduce their emissions. China has shelved the planned construction of scores of new coal-fired power stations and significantly boosted investment in nuclear power and renewable energy to the point where some experts are predicting its emissions will peak in the next decade. US President Barack Obama, having recognised the futility of trying to cajole Congress into agreeing to new emission-reduction measures, has chosen the regulatory route and issued executive orders mandating cuts in carbon dioxide emissions from transport and power generation. The growing exploitation of relatively clean coal-seam gas has also allowed the US to cut back on its consumption of brown and black coal.
Mr Obama, who has privately admitted to having a poor record on climate change during his first term, appears committed to a more proactive stance during his second and final term, which augurs well for progress in New York and Paris. Perhaps most encouraging of all, public opposition to meaningful climate action appears to be declining. That is in part because of the IPCC’s warnings and the evidence of change that is obvious to anyone with an interest in current events here and around the world. There is also a growing realisation among politicians and governments that to embrace a carbon-constrained future, it is not necessary to sacrifice economic growth. Smart business leaders too are aware that there will be significant opportunities stemming from climate change mitigation measures, provided of course their governments lay the basis for the development and take-up of renewable and other technologies.
On the evidence so far, there is little to indicate the Abbott government recognises either the gravity of the situation or the need to take firmer action. On the contrary, the Coalition is wedded to an ineffectual emissions reduction target and a policy (Direct Action), which will have little impact on future emissions. And that poor public policy will be compounded by Environment Minister Greg Hunt’s plan to give billions of dollars to big polluting companies to reduce their emissions without imposing sanctions if they fail to meet the targets.
Utilising, perhaps, Samuel Johnson’s observation that when a man is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully, the IPCC has released an alarming report that demands strong action. It is doubtful, however, that the Abbott government “gets it’’.
