Whatever solution the government offers to Australia's housing affordability problem, the Coalition will make its task harder by searching for one without obvious losers.
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With good reason, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull moved to end debate over an idea to open up superannuation for young home buyers, a proposal that has divided his senior ministers and drawn raised eyebrows from economists.
Treasurer Scott Morrison raised the idea as the government casts about with growing urgency for a coherent housing policy to rival Labor's promise to reform negative gearing.
It's a policy hole that needs filling. As investors surge back into the housing market, the government is at pains to offer voters a solution fast.
Unlocking superannuation for first home buyers is attractive at face-value for the Coalition. It wouldn't cost the budget in the short-term, would leave negative gearing and stamp duty concessions intact for investors, and involve no obvious losers outside superannuation fund providers. The risk would fall mostly on those it's meant to benefit: young home buyers.
But they wouldn't know whether drawing down their super early had hurt them until looking at their finances close to retirement, when it would be another government's problem.
The idea has reared its head again after Paul Keating ditched the policy following re-election in 1993, shortly after superannuation payments became compulsory.
It draws attention to what might seem like an oddity in the housing market. Young couples struggling to buy a first home in the heated housing markets of Sydney and Melbourne can't put their own money - tied up in superannuation funds - towards an investment that could grow their retirement nest egg.
Supporters say the status quo sends a message that it's OK for superannuation funds to invest in real estate, but not for young people whose money they hold.
But the risk to young people's retirement funds should weigh heavily in any decision to open up superannuation for home buyers. Already, there are fears the change would let people consume a significant amount of the value of their superannuation savings as housing services, long before retirement.
The Grattan Institute says the policy would lead to lower retirement savings balances, even if people ended up with more housing assets. There could be a significant opportunity cost for someone in their 30s using thousands in super to buy a house instead of letting it appreciate with compound interest for decades.
Adding more cash to the housing market will drive up prices and risks putting young people back where they started, locked out still, only now with less in superannuation.
Mr Morrison's plan leaves a lot of questions unanswered at closer scrutiny. The option that will not cost the budget and will leave investors untouched won't provide clear market relief, because it tries to defer risk and loss far into the future. A solution will need a more obvious loser, and a harder political sell.
