Malcolm Turnbull is adept as the next politician at recanting without appearing in the least bit embarrassed. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister may have blushed inwardly on Wednesday when he said Australia should do "really smart, clean things with coal". This is the man who after defeating Tony Abbott for the Liberal Party leadership in September 2015 declared that "we can't be defensive, we can't future-proof ourselves", while urging us to recognise that "volatility in change is our friend if we are agile and smart enough to take advantage of it".
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To many voters, Mr Turnbull's advocacy of further investment in "clean coal" technology – and construction of next-generation coal-fired power stations in Australia – will seem like wholesale resistance to technological change and the antithesis of smart-thinking, future-oriented government. Mr Turnbull would argue that he's not so much intent on concentrating research and development efforts on coal (while depriving renewables of R&D dollars) as trying to keep power prices down and ensure reliability of supply.
There's plenty of justification (and sympathy) for that view: last year's South Australian blackout was stark evidence that moving to renewables without reliable baseload power potentially entails considerable economic risks as well as inconvenience. Improved battery technology will negate some of those risks, particularly for domestic consumers, but it's unlikely heavy industry will ever be able to operate independent of base-load power.
Most of mainland Australia's base-load power is generated by burning cheap and plentiful coal, and that's likely to remain the case in the medium to long term. However, our power stations are ageing and will need to be replaced in coming decades, which is why Mr Turnbull wants greater investment in "clean coal" and the construction of new-generation power stations. These burn coal at higher temperatures and greater pressures, and emit far fewer greenhouse gas emissions than old-style generators – up to 40 per cent less according to some estimates.
The Prime Minister insists that keeping energy costs down is paramount (and that coal will continue to figure prominently in Australia's future energy equation), so construction of these plants would appear inescapable. However, few energy companies share his enthusiasm for "clean coal", correctly pointing out that investors and financiers view these plants as risky propositions and as "legacy technology". That raises the possibility governments will have to underwrite or subsidise new power station construction, a problematic and potentially fraught proposition.
A curiosity of the base-load power debate is the lack of prominence given to gas, which burns far cleaner than coal. That probably stems from our tight domestic supply, which has been affected by restrictions on coal-seam gas exploration and by the export of nearly all of Australia's natural gas. The Turnbull government says it wants restrictions eased, but to no avail thus far. It needs to try harder, for gas prices are tipped to rise dramatically this winter, and time is running out to shore up energy security.
