The referendum on Scottish independence on Thursday is too close to call, according to the latest opinion polls. After months in which the Yes camp has trailed the pro-unionists, the narrowing of the contest has led to some extraordinary pleas and concessions in past weeks, interspersed with ominous warnings of the consequences for Scotland of full-scale independence. The most impassioned of these have been from David Cameron. In a speech in Edinburgh last week, the British Prime Minister spoke of the "heartbreak" he would feel if Scotland voted for independence, and pleaded with his audience not to break up the union just to give the "effing Tories a kick", and on Monday, he warned a vote for independence would not be a vote for a "trial separation" but for a "painful divorce". Given Mr Cameron's leadership of the Conservative Party could be rendered untenable in the event of a Yes vote by virtue of his having agreed to demands for a referendum in the first place, such emotion-charged observations are unsurprising. Even the Queen, by nature a stickler for the convention that the head of state exercise strict impartiality in all political matters, has discreetly expressed the hope that "people will think very carefully about the future".
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The question of Scottish autonomy has indeed been ruminated on at length north of the River Tweed. Scotland already makes its own laws regarding forestry, fisheries, education, the environment, health and social services and law and order. It fields its own teams in international soccer and rugby tournaments, an indicator of sorts of a separate national identity. Having been a more or less willing partner in the British Act of Union in 1707, having benefited from it in innumerable ways, and then having wangled an enviable degree of political autonomy from Westminster, once in 1998 and again in 2012, Scotland ought to be a happy co-unionist.
But the grievances remain, and their principal source is money, or rather the suspicion that Britain's North Sea oil and gas wealth (which Scotland might have laid sole claim to if it had been an independent nation) has disproportionally benefited England, particularly the country's south. There are other grievances too, born mostly of the all-too-common feeling among voters far removed from the halls of power that they are being taken for granted. The damage done to Scotland's economy in the 1980s by the harsh policies of the Thatcher government remains a matter of lingering resentment too. So powerful is this sentiment that the Tories continue to struggle to win seats in Scotland to this day. The Scots, who believe themselves to be more socially aware and egalitarian-minded than their English cousins, also remain sceptical of the Tories' insistence on the need for austerity measures – and openly doubtful that southern England is doing its share of the heavy lifting.
Scots being Scots, however, reservations abound as to whether the Scottish Nationalist Party can make good on its promise that a Yes vote will ensure political and economic nirvana. Should that prove to be the outcome, the devolvement of power and the division of assets and liabilities will be fiendishly complex and expensive, with no guarantee that royalties from the North Sea oil and gas fields will continue to flow long-term – or that Scotland will negotiate entry into the European Union. The SNP says an independent Scotland will keep the pound as its currency, even though the consensus is that such a policy would be a recipe for fiscal disaster. And the suggestion by a number of Edinburgh-based banks and businesses that they will move to London adds credence to the view that Scotland could become a branch office economy after independence.
For all the accusations that Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has sold Scots an unrealistic pipe dream of lower taxes and higher public spending, his questing has led to all manner of promises and concessions from Westminster, including "devo-max": giving Scotland's parliament power over all matters bar defence and foreign affairs.
Perhaps this was the outcome the canny Scots had in mind all along, and maybe they fully intend to vote no on Thursday.