A detailed study by the Australian National Audit Office of Federal Government welfare crackdowns announced since the start of 2012 casts grave doubts over the $4 billion in savings claimed for the controversial Centrelink "robo-debt" program.
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While the 2016 MYEFO budget estimate was for the scheme, which has caused the government considerable political grief, to claw back $3.7 billion from "overpaid" social welfare recipients, that was subsequently upped to $4 billion over four years.
Neither figure seems likely to be achieved if past performance is taken as a reasonable indicator of future savings.
The staff at the ANAO, who handed down their report on Tuesday, said while measures claimed to deliver a total of $790 million had been announced, the total take had fallen short by $270 million or 34 per cent.
The initial months of the roll out of the "robo-debt" program were covered by the ANAO study.
It would, on the face of it, appear claimed savings of $4 billion made for "robo-debt" are likely to fall at least $1.36 billion short.
If the lower figure, of $3.7 billion in savings, is used the shortfall comes in at roughly $1.25 billion.
Moving on to the larger picture, the results of the ANAO study highlight the ongoing issue Human Services has with "over-egging" its savings claims and then under-performing when the rubber hits the road.
The Department has claimed ANAO failed to take into account "the business as usual" anti-fraud effort.
It claims to have achieved savings of $998 million since the start of 2012.
Such assertions may need to be taken with several grains of salt given the ANAO report also found the Department's advice to ministers on the progress of its compliance efforts was "ad hoc" and not consistent with what was promised at the outset (of welfare crackdown initiatives).
The underlying issue is that there is only so much a government can save or claw back from some of the most underpaid and vulnerable people in the community.
The amounts being sought, while mind-numbingly scary to the individuals on the pointy end of threatening letters from Centrelink and phone calls from debt collectors, are minuscule compared to what the big end of town saves through complex tax avoidance strategies and the like.
It was only last June that an Oxfam report found tax avoidance by multinationals had cost the Federal Government $6 billion in a single year.
Multiply by that four and you have $24 billion; a sum that dwarfs the projected take from the robo-debt program and which would cause far less grief and pain if clawed back.
According to Oxfam Australian investments in off-shore tax havens totalled just under $100 billion in 2014.
If the Federal Government is genuine in its pursuit of money then surely it makes sense to go where the money is.
