The odds of a Donald Trump presidency, already long, have probably lengthened after this week's Republican convention in Cleveland. National conventions are nowadays just elaborately choreographed investitures at which party grandees deliver glowing testimonials and presidential nominees make acceptance speeches intended to be as uplifting and as broadly appealing as possible. What unfolded this week, however, was frequently chaotic, disorderly and distracted.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
The convention arena video screens played up, Mr Trump's wife delivered a speech that lifted passages from a 2008 speech by Michelle Obama, and defeated candidate Ted Cruz told delegates to "vote your conscience", a Congressional code phrase meaning "vote against your leaders". Adding to the air of misadventure, The New York Times published a wide-ranging interview with Mr Trump on Wednesday in which he suggested NATO members not "paying their bills" – that is, spending less than 2 per cent of their GDP on defence – should not expect the US to automatically come to their aid.
Mr Trump's acceptance speech was similarly confrontational: The Los Angeles Times described it as "painting a dark portrait of a country besieged at home and threatened abroad". There was little in the way of policy details or insights into how he might handle the presidency. Instead, Mr Trump revisited proposals for a wall along the US border with Mexico, an open-ended ban on immigrants from "any nation that has been compromised by terrorism", and the renegotiation of trade agreements to create new jobs in the US. And he promised delegates that "beginning on January 20, 2017 [inauguration day] safety will be restored".
A presidential candidate running a law and order campaign is an unorthodox strategy, but then nothing about Trump's tilt at office has been conventional. The New York businessman and reality TV star joined the Republican primary contest as the aggrieved outsider (ironically enough) railing at the treachery and unreliability of the country's elites and promising to act on the concerns of ordinary voters regarding immigration, job losses, failed US fiscal and foreign policies and crumbling infrastructure. Mr Trump's utterances were so outlandish and provocative, however, that many commentators predicted a quick exit from the contest. Instead, he saw off 16 other contenders to eventually claim the nomination.
The Republican Party looks in imminent danger of fracturing, perhaps irrevocably, as a result of Mr Trump's anti-establishment populism. A reaching out of hands at Cleveland may not have helped matters (for Republican royalty like the Bushes had already boycotted the event) but conventional political wisdom would have dictated Mr Trump adopt a conciliatory strategy. Instead he defiantly indicated he's not for turning.
While that uncompromising style has struck a chord with significant numbers of voters, Mr Trump must appeal to a broader audience if he's to win the election. While many Americans regard Hillary Clinton as the epitome of all that's wrong with US politics, the prospect of an immoderate and intemperate Donald Trump occupying the White House is more unappealing.
