More encouraging still for Labor, the Fairfax-Ipsos poll revealed that last week's federal budget (upon which the Coalition is relying heavily as a stepping stone to victory on July 2) has more detractors than admirers. Forty-six per cent of those polled said they were dissatisfied with the government's budget, versus a satisfaction rating of 39 per cent. Only 24 per cent of respondents felt they'd be better off under the budget, with 39 per cent saying they'd be worse off. And the poll revealed that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's approval and disapproval ratings continue to head in the wrong directions.

If long election campaigns favour challengers rather than incumbents – and Australian political history tends to suggest this – then Labor has some justification for genuine as distinct from faux confidence.

Mr Shorten's strategy over the opening weeks of this election campaign is certainly suggestive of that. He plans to ride a bus on a two-and-a-half-week education-focused tour down the east coast, from Cairns to Canberra, stopping at 30 electorates along the way. Doubtless the stops will be tightly choreographed, but this "people strategy" may play well with ordinary voters who feel their political leaders are sometimes as remote as the royal family and just as hard to engage in conversation or debate.

The one certainty in this election is that ranking politicians will be seen more often in marginal seats than not, and that they'll be dispensing favours regardless of suitability, need, propriety or budget impact. Only last month, a Grattan Institute study found that billions of dollars had been squandered over the past decade on pork-barreling in marginal electorates. A party which announced it was putting the national interest ahead of political patronage might enjoy a polling bounce, but ingrained habits are hard to break.

If Mr Shorten is accentuating his people skills and Labor's "affinity" for fair and equitable health and education policies, Mr Turnbull will be extolling the Coalition's economic management credentials. Its claims of superiority in this regard are not especially compelling, although the budget did restore matters somewhat. A raft of new spending initiatives – always a possibility when an incumbent prime minister senses voter sentiment may be shifting – remains the danger for the Coalition.

Whatever the polls indicate now, commonsense (and usually reliable betting markets) suggest the Coalition will be returned with a reduced majority. That being the case, Mr Turnbull should resist the temptation to resort to superficiality and engage in more substantive discussion of policies. It might just mitigate the inevitable swing.