One of the beneficial side-effects of the downfall of Barnaby Joyce has been the attention it has given to the Coalition, because one of the main themes of the tenure of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister has been the role of the Nationals within the government. That hasn't been the case under previous Liberal prime ministers, including John Howard and Malcolm Fraser, even though the Nationals have been recognised as the more socially conservative of the two coalition parties and as having distinctive economic interests. Attention was restricted to the 'divvying up' of portfolios, including the claim by the Nationals to the Deputy Prime Ministership.
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The difference now is Turnbull. In general terms the Nationals have been seen by commentators as one of the factors restricting his freedom of movement as a 'centrist' prime minister and for making the government more conservative than it otherwise might have been. Attention has now been focussed on the written 'pre-nuptial' Coalition agreement and certain policy areas, such as water and the environment.
The election of Michael McCormack to replace Joyce as Nationals' leader brings various matters to do with the Coalition into focus. The first is how well the Nationals do out of the relationship. The deal means that the Nationals' leader is often propelled into high office over the heads of more senior members of the government. That wasn't so obvious with Joyce, who had a high personal profile, but it is striking in the case of the little-known McCormack.
The photograph of last Monday's first meeting between Turnbull and his Liberal deputy Julie Bishop, the Foreign Minister, with McCormack and Bridget McKenzie, the two Nationals' leaders, made this point in striking fashion. Turnbull and Bishop need no introduction to the nation, while McCormack and McKenzie are virtual unknowns. It is this imbalance which can cause irritation among Liberals and disbelief among some voters.
McCormack entered Parliament in 2010 as the member for Riverina so his parliamentary experience on becoming party leader is not deficient compared with Liberal and Labor leaders like Turnbull himself and Kevin Rudd, but his prior ministerial experience is relatively junior. It is a shock that someone can be catapulted from the junior ministry to deputy prime minister, whatever his personal qualities, over the heads of big names like the Foreign Minister and the Treasurer.
Such high office for the Nationals' leader does bring benefits in regional diversity. It gives the leadership team an urban-rural balance more difficult for the Liberals to achieve and almost impossible for Labor. McCormack was also educated at a regional Catholic high school in Wagga, rather than a prestigious Catholic college in Sydney, emphasising his rural connections.
But with first Joyce and now McCormack coming from NSW it does also mean that both coalition leaders come from the same state, a fact rarely commented on. That has been frequently the case recently as John Howard's Coalition deputies were from NSW (Tim Fischer, John Anderson and Mark Vaile) whereas Warren Truss, Joyce's predecessor under Tony Abbott and Turnbull, was a Queenslander.
The other general issue is McCormack's low profile outside his electorate. That may soon be fixed in short order as publicity is inevitably attracted to him because of his new position. But for the time being he remains pretty much an unknown quantity.
The change has generally been seen to represent a loss of fire-power for the government as the so-called best retail politician in the country exits the Coalition leadership. That is, communication fire-power and campaigning fire-power. Joyce shared with Abbott a high media profile and a perception of vigorous plain-speaking which could cut through with the electorate.
But even if that proves in some ways to be a negative Turnbull may be willing, indeed eager, to swap a turbulent relationship with a hard-driving, media-hungry and unpredictable Joyce for an easier relationship with McCormack. There are precedents for this, notably during the Howard years with Anderson and Vaile and during the Abbott and early Turnbull years with Truss. McCormack spent time working with Truss as an assistant minister. Truss, from Wide Bay in Queensland, was also known as a quiet man and by his detractors as colourless and invisible, especially in the cities. But it was a Coalition relationship which appeared to work well. It is a successful model for McCormack to follow.
The personality differences between Joyce and McCormack are an insight into the mixture of styles evident in our politics across all parties. They are as different as Abbott and Turnbull appeared to be when the change in Liberal leadership occurred in September 2015. In some ways such difference also seemed like the choice offered to Labor when Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese contested the leadership back in 2013. Albanese was thought to be more emotionally-charged and more likely to really 'take it up' to the government with fiery speeches.
The apparent difference between the sloganeering Abbott and the more restrained Turnbull was welcomed by many on both sides of politics as presaging a return to a less adversarial style of parliamentary politics. However, that expectation has been only partly fulfilled under the pressure of the parliamentary bear-pit, which turns everyone into 'ranters and ragers' if they are not careful.
McCormack will undoubtedly evolve in his own way. The Nationals' past leaders offer various models of leadership to guide him; so do those in other parties. He will also be under pressure within his own party to match Joyce's political achievements, even from those who are happy to put Joyce's personal eccentricities behind them.
John Warhurst is an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University
