Australia has three levels of government, federal, state and local and the third level is generally recognised as local government. But in the present crisis-ridden international situation with its emphasis on the United Nations and the formation of international coalitions we really have four levels and state government slips to the third level.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
The third level of governance normally doesn't get much popular attention, which is the danger faced by state politics at the moment, even with two major state elections looming. The Victorian state election comes first, in November, and the NSW state election follows in March 2015.
The two state governments are both first-term governments, coming to office when Labor was beginning to be savagely rejected by the Australian community across the country. However, Mike Baird in NSW and Denis Napthine in Victoria are even newer having replaced the elected premiers, Barry O'Farrell and Ted Baillieu, in mid-term.
Since they were elected Tony Abbott has come to office federally which is potentially an important development. State Labor has continued to struggle though it held on in remarkable circumstances in South Australia earlier this year.
The NSW Coalition government came to office as expected in a rout and has a huge majority. The change of government in Victoria was a more normal affair and was somewhat of a surprise at the time. Labor lost narrowly by one seat and since the defection of one government member to the cross-benches Victoria has had a minority Coalition government.
These state elections are significant in themselves. First-term governments don't normally lose. The present Coalition governments replaced long-term Labor administrations. No one expects Labor to win in NSW and the general expectation is that Labor will do very well to restrict the Coalition to two terms in office such was the magnitude of its loss in 2011.
Victoria is very different. It is an open election and Victoria is one of those "Labor" states like South Australia which has resisted quite stubbornly the coming of the nation-wide Coalition era. However, on the other hand, there have been numerous examples over the past two decades of incoming state governments, like Wran (NSW), Bracks (Victoria) and Rann (SA), building on narrow election wins to stay in office for three or even four terms.
In addition, like all state elections, they will also be seen as a barometer of how federal politics is going. There are two elements to this. First, an unpopular federal government is seen as making life difficult for state governments of the same party persuasion. This applies to both the Baird and Napthine governments. Both responded angrily to the Abbott government's budget, and Napthine has fought to defend the motor vehicle industry against federal government decisions.
Secondly, any State Opposition can appeal to the apparent desire of voters, other things being equal, to balance party representation at the federal and state levels. It is Labor's turn to do this, though they still have a big task to convince voters that other things are equal.
So is there any sign that Labor is coming back? There have been two polls recently by the same company, Essential, that suggest that the tide is slowly turning, but without enormous enthusiasm for Labor. That is, support for the Coalition is down but primary vote support for Labor has not sprung back very much. As a consequence the NSW government holds a comfortable 53:47 two-party-preferred (2PP) margin while the Victorian government trails by a narrow 48:52 2PP. Green voters (8 per cent in NSW poll and 11 per cent in Victoria) and others opposed to both the major parties will be crucial in the distribution of preferences.
The most likely outcome now is the return of the NSW Coalition government with a drastically reduced majority, because 53:47 means a massive 11 per cent swing towards Labor, and the return of Labor in Victoria in a tight contest under Opposition Leader Dan Andrews. Overall that would be a welcome result for Labor, but one Tony Abbott could live with.
Elections are decided by predictable and unpredictable factors. The unpredictable factors working against the NSW government include the revelations of the Independent Commission against Corruption which have brought down 10 Coalition MPs in unsavoury circumstances. But the NSW Labor debacle is still fresh and is being continuously recalled to mind by the Labor elements of the ICAC revelations. They cut both ways but an ICAC report after Christmas would unsettle the Baird government more than Labor.
The extremely unpredictable factors that probably help both Coalition state governments include the global and domestic aspects of fighting terrorism. These work in several ways. To the extent that the war against IS and its domestic ramifications strike a chord within the electorate then Baird and Napthine are partners with Abbott in what is seen as a necessary if not popular undertaking. Khaki/security elections tend to favour the conservative side of politics as they make voters think twice about changing governments and give incumbent political leaders plenty of profile.
Oppositions don't generally win elections; governments lose them. This truism looks likely to apply this time. Oppositions just need to look solid enough to be electable and hold themselves together while the government throws it away. NSW Labor, now led by John Robertson, took such a big hit three and a half years ago that they don't yet look electable. Victorian Labor was left with much more to work with and may just scrape over the line. The NSW Coalition has a big buffer while the Victorian Coalition has no buffer at all. That will be probably the difference.
John Warhurst is an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University.
