Look out tomato growers - Canberra could be heading for a rare, potentially record-breaking frost on Melbourne Cup day, after an October of extremes.
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Both ends of the temperature spectrum in October were pushed well past the average – during the day the average temperature has been more than 2.5 degrees above average at about 22 degrees, while the night-time average is our second coldest on record, at a chilly 3.7 degrees.
The cold nights were prominent, with five nights below zero, compared to the average of one, including the coldest October morning ever (minus 3.4 degrees on the 18th).
It was also significantly drier than usual through October – just 13.4 millimetres of rain at the airport compared to average of 62.4 millimetres.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Sean Carson said clear skies and cold fronts bringing westerly winds were responsible for most of Canberra’s weather extremes over the month, but said Canberra was actually in a relatively temperature zone compared to some of the weather experienced by our neighbours to the north and south.
“[The temperature was] certainly very contrasting. I guess the rainfall being so low points to the fact that it was fairly clear skies which does tend to help temperatures cool at night and be warmer during the day,” he said.
“Normally we’d expect the winds to die down in early October, but we’ve certainly had quite a few cold fronts coming through … cold fronts not bringing much rain but certainly windy conditions now through to the later part of October.
“It’s been cooler and wetter the further south you go towards Victoria and South Australia and hotter and drier the further north you go by the time you get to Sydney and northern NSW.”
While the bushfires in Sydney over the month were the worst in more than a decade, Mr Carson said October was often more prone to fires for Sydney before the fire danger moved south as summer progressed.
He said good September rainfall had kept most of the ACT green, and the fire danger low, despite the dry, windy October, but warned that could change depending on rainfall over summer.
“It’ll dry out at some stage. It always does. It only takes two weeks of hot weather to dry out most of the grassland in the ACT. We haven’t had the real heat yet, but that will happen for sure, so the bushfire threat will certainly increase,” he said.
But as the frequency of westerly winds decreased, Mr Carson said the ACT was likely to experience more humidity, and with it the chance of increased thunderstorm activity through November and into summer.
Mr Carson also said the forecast was tipping a possible minus 2 degree morning for Melbourne Cup day on Tuesday, which would be a record-breaking frost for the ACT.
The coming weekend is expected to be mostly fine for Canberra, with light winds, some cloud cover, and daytime temperatures in the mid-20s.