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ALP ditched by many Queenslanders in Gillard era

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Poll washout in Sunshine state

Nielsen's John Stirton decodes the latest poll figures from Queensland. Labor hoped to gain momentum up North, but the numbers are heading South.

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The most ominous finding for Labor in today's Age-Nielsen Poll of Queensland voters isn't that Kevin Rudd is well behind in his home state, with a primary vote that is less than was the case in the 2010 election.

It isn't that Queenslanders, who we assume have a higher regard for their man than other Australians, see him as less trustworthy than Tony Abbott.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd arrives in Brisbane on Monday.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd arrives in Brisbane on Monday. Photo: Andrew Meares

And it isn't that 72 per cent of those surveyed expect a Coalition victory on Saturday.

No, it is that almost two-thirds of Queensland voters decided how they are going to vote before Rudd returned to the prime ministership in June.

If this is the case in Queensland, the place Kevin calls home, the likelihood is that it is even more pronounced in the other states.

It suggests that Rudd's hope of cutting Abbott's lead in the final week is misplaced and that his passionate call to the true believers at Sunday's launch may have come too late.

It also suggests that Julia Gillard's decision to give the electorate certainty by nominating September 14 as election day early this year was a catalyst for voters making up their minds and tuning out.

The one ray of light for Labor is that, on one best-case scenario that flows from the results (a two-party preferred vote favouring the Coalition of 53-47), Labor could still pick up between one and three seats in the Sunshine State.

That assumes the preferences of the minor parties that will have much more influence in Queensland flow to Labor and that Labor's marginal seat strategies are better than the Coalition's.

The truth, of course, is that Labor needs an even better result in Queensland to offset expected losses elsewhere, notably in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.

Little wonder then, that Abbott is once again casting the election as a referendum on the carbon tax, on the basis that Labor and the Greens should respect his mandate in the event of an emphatic victory.

Little wonder, too, that Rudd is campaigning as if there is no tomorrow.

The worry for Labor, underscored by this poll, is that those whose votes he needs are not paying attention.

99 comments

  • Labor would have you believe Queensland has been decimated by the Campbell Newman govt. Clearly the Labor scare campaign, like so many Labor tactics, has failed.

    Commenter
    Tim of Altona
    Date and time
    September 03, 2013, 6:46AM
    • Ah Queensland... let's see how Newman copes with the next catastrophic storms and floods that suck the coffers dry!

      Commenter
      Max Gross
      Location
      Sapphire Coast
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 8:01AM
    • Young Timmy is a firm believer in polls.

      ""I don't believe the polls. I want to make it absolutely crystal clear - I do not believe these polls," Mr Abbott said on Monday.""

      He mustn't have got the new edict.

      Commenter
      J. Fraser
      Location
      Queensland
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 8:26AM
    • Yeah, I think there's a lot of anger re the floods- the role of bligh and the crap that flannery has spewed {it will never flood again} which labor politicians accepted truth also is stuck in the minds of Queenslanders. And those issues should stick in the minds of Queenslanders.

      Bad government protecting bad governments for the sake of a union agenda is not in Australia's best interests.

      With the exception of plain label cig packs, I can't think of a positive thing federal labor has done.
      # And trying to force feed spin so that voters will magically forget how wasteful the last 6 years have been isn't working either.

      ------------------

      Tony:
      If PNG refuse to take illegals then start cutting PNG's annual $200 million + donation from Australia. They'll soon rectify the problem lest they kill their golden goose.

      If Indonesia continues to belligerently oppose accepting the return of illegals then start cutting the hundreds of millions that Indonesia gets. They'll whine for a while and then decide that the money can do more than being obstinate ever will.

      Once carr is booted from the un can you please begin working on the removal of mugabe- if the sec council won't remove him because china or russia vetoes then work on creating a multilateral force to remove mugabe outside of the un.
      He's created, what is now, 9 million refugees, and it's obvious obama loves mugabe so it's time for Aus to get in there and remove him.
      Doesn't have to be an invasion force- just a sniper or a drone to take out mugabe and his coterie.

      All labor understands is borrowing money and giving it to chums.
      That has made things a lot worse GLOBALLY.

      Commenter
      Alex
      Location
      Finley
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 8:34AM
    • Vandal Newman is well on his way to decimating Queensland - he's already legislated to take away the democratic rights of some Queenslanders just because they opposed him. I have 7 friends who have become unemployed as a direct result of Vandal's policies (and not all of them were public servants). I don't know if I'll have a job next year. Vandal has made life very difficult for so many Queenslanders. So many people I know are regretting voting for the LNP. PUP or Katter seem the way to go this federal election.

      Commenter
      waxing lyrical
      Location
      Brissie
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 8:38AM
    • Max, Waxing and John - I'm sorry but Queenslanders' don't believe your Labor spin. If you were correct in all your damnation of the Newman Govt, Rudd would be winning in a landslide in QLD.

      As it is Labor will be lucky to come away with 3 seats in QLD after Saturday and even Griffith looks shakey.

      Your allegiance to Anna Bligh is admirable, but she is now long gone and 95% of Queenslanders just don't agree with you.

      Commenter
      Tim of Altona
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 9:04AM
    • Ohhhhhhhh,

      The poor QLD public servants.
      They had their entitlements cut and they are too dopey to retrain. Ohhhh, diddums.

      Well, don't worry you sacked public servants as there's a special media company just for you to whine in- It's called fairfax and fairfax will publish articles written by you and your chums so long as you demand more state debt to keep YOU alone living in comfort.

      *May I suggest though, that instead of just whining like a lefty, you explain in detail how all other Aussies will suffer unless you get your jobs back.*

      Commenter
      Alex
      Location
      Finley
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 9:04AM
    • Gosh the world looks simple from Finley - just goodies and baddies. And you've got to hand it to Labor - more powerful than I ever imagined to cause all that global mayhem. Can't wait for Abbott, the Bishops, Mirabella and Pyne to use these powers to bring peace and prosperity to the entire world.

      Commenter
      Dave from Sydney
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 9:13AM
    • Tim of Altona, amen to that. What we are seeing in Queensland is the voters sick of the infighting the 3 year tantrum and the failure of Labor to do anything but spend our money.
      The article says that most people made up their minds before KRudd was "re elected" but in reality about 50% had made up their minds and having KRudd again as PM shoved the others over the edge.
      We have seen what Labor did to our so called smart state and what a good Government can do, Newman, who got rid of the dead wood and is now more popular that when he was voted in except of course by the Labor Supporters who must have liked this state getting its Triple A rating downgraded, the Public Service bloated with people who didn't have a job but filled in time, by the Unions running rough shod over the employers and by the Power prices going through the roof when we were told by Teflon Pete that they would definitely drop, by taxes and charges going up and up, by Green and red tape adding thousands to the price of a house and then there was the corruption.
      . The public Service actually functions as they know that they are on a slippery slope and not working will lead to even more cuts.
      Of course if those Labor Voters want a return to those good old days and more wastage from the federal Labor Party then by all means vote Labor but those who can think for themselves will be voting for a change of Government who has a history of Surpluses, knows how to stop the boats and how to curtail the Unions and excessive wage demands.

      Commenter
      thatmosis
      Location
      Isis Central
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 9:47AM
    • People realised that the only reason that Campbel Newman had to make such though desistions, simply was because of the economical mess that Anna Bligh had left the state of Queensland in .Just imagine if every Australian tax payer wern't paying a flood levey to help to rebuild Queensland, because Anna Bligh didn't have any flood insurance ,how much more suffering the people off Queensland would have to go through.
      Kevin Rudd tried to make Campbel Newman look like a dictator and hoped to fool every one to vote for labor. All Kevin Rudd did throught his whole campain was trying to scare everyone to death with his lies and illusions.

      Commenter
      Benson Kane
      Location
      Melbourne
      Date and time
      September 03, 2013, 10:11AM

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