The Abbott government's confidence that its direct action climate policy will meet Australia's emissions reduction target is based on Australia's track record in environmental policy and not on modelling, a Senate estimates hearing has heard.
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Senators were told on Monday that the environment department and clean energy regulator had not done any modelling to assess whether the government's emissions reduction fund could meet Australia's 5 per cent emissions reduction target by 2020.
The emissions reduction fund, which will pay polluters to reduce their emissions, replaced Labor's carbon tax last year.
The first auctions for businesses, which will bid for funds through the scheme, will begin in April.
Officials said in hearings on Monday that they could not isolate whether the policy would be enough to meet Australia's 5 per cent target because parts of the scheme, such as penalties to ensure polluters do not exceed an emissions baseline, had not been finalised.
Senators were instead told that the government's confidence in the policy was based on "past practice".
Australia's practice was that it did not enter international "agreements that we're not prepared to deliver".
"Based on past practice which is past delivery around Kyoto Protocol period one, based on what other countries do as standard practice, the government is confident it will reach that target," environment department secretary Gordon de Brouwer said.
Labor senator Lisa Singh asked how the government could budget for the emissions reduction fund if it did not know how effective the scheme would be.
"How did the government come up with a figure of $2.55 billion to meet the emissions reduction target … how did it come up with that figure if it had done no modelling?" she said.
Government senator Simon Birmingham said Australia's carbon abatement challenge fluctuated for a range of reasons, including changes in the economy.
He said projections due in coming weeks would give the government a clearer picture of whether Australia was on course to meet its targets.
"So there may be more funding to meet the emissions reduction target based on the success or failure of the abatement?" Senator Singh asked.
"It may be that the ERF overshoots the target, senator," Senator Birmingham replied.
Senator Singh asked if Senator Birmingham was "prepared to put money on that".
"We'll see what the projections suggest in coming weeks," Senator Birmingham said.
